How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

8 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

It's fascinating to see how relevant Sun Tzu still is in the middle of discussions of the future role of drones and UGVs and what role, if any, tanks might have in future. The specifics can change radically and quickly, but many core principles are timeless. There are tactics which will work in CMFI or CMBN, but get you curb stomped in CMBS...but there are also principles which apply to CMBS just as much as Field of Glory II or Sengoku Jidai: Shadow of the Shogun.

It calls to mind something I remember from reading Norman Schwarzkopf's memoirs right after they came out when I was twelve (showing my age here): In 1961, he won an Army writing award for a short piece titled "The Battered Helmet" which retells a battle as historical fiction, starting with a weary general noting that the dented helmet he just set down on his bunk will need to be replaced. The rest of the story proceeds with the general recounting the day's battle, all written in generic, modern-sounding terms to imply a 20th Century setting...only at the end is it revealed that he's Julius Caesar.

Link?

[Battlefront.com]

31 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@The_Capt

Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba on the meeting of NATO countries ministers of defenses:

"I regret to say this, but this is true: the battle for Donbas will remind you WWII with large-scale operations, maneuvers, participation of thousands tanks, armored vehicles, planes, artillery. This will not be local operation, based on what we see from preparations of Russia to this. Russian has own plan, we have own. And outcome of this battle will be decided on the battlefield"

So, as I said recently, "light infanty" tactic on Donbas will be less useful. Here is more dense troops deployment, clear frontline, minefields, trenches, strongpoints, Russians will have more short and defended routes of supply. Here will be completely other war. 

This is why my armchair advice a few pages back was for Ukraine to get every HE chucking system they have into position and turn an otherwise beautiful part of the world into a moonscape.  For Russia to win it has to use mass.  Mass can be defeated with mass.  Especially in this case because the Russians are in very bad shape to start with and the Ukrainians have shown very good skills at using artillery for devastating effect.

Steve

[db_zero]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is why my armchair advice a few pages back was for Ukraine to get every HE chucking system they have into position and turn an otherwise beautiful part of the world into a moonscape.  For Russia to win it has to use mass.  Mass can be defeated with mass.  Especially in this case because the Russians are in very bad shape to start with and the Ukrainians have shown very good skills at using artillery for devastating effect.

Steve

The MLRS would be well suited for this sort of fight. We don't know what the west is sending besides whats already been mentioned. Apparently both the West/US and Ukranians are not disclosing the full inventory of weapons.

The other possibility? Maybe a phony war. Russia threatens additional offensive action but just sits back and a long stalemate takes place with no cease fire or peace agreement.

Then the West will have to support Ukraine economically sending billions a month while their economies slowdown and slip into a recession with inflation on food and energy skyrocketing.

Edited April 7, 2022 by db_zero

[Bil Hardenberger]

11 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Link?

The Battered Helmet

Edited April 7, 2022 by Bil Hardenberger

[Kinophile]

30 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

T-90A also can throw a turret

 

The scottish reply is perfect:

"Most of that will buff out"

[LukeFF]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Man, Reddit moves fast:

 

[db_zero]

The lack of efficiency and corruption in the Russian military and society in general has been discussed in detail. I have to wonder what the role of alcoholism plays. The diet in Russia is lacking in fruits and vegetables and high in saturated fats. The death rate from alcohol related causes is off the charts.

If you do a search on alcoholism in Russia the stats are staggering. There have already been stories of Russian troops alcohol abuse when stationed in Belarus and the reports of looting in Ukraine looking for booze and the behaviors of drunk Russian troops.

I would not be surprised if toxicology tests were done on dead Russian soldiers would show many were under the influence when KIA. 

Vodka has an interesting history that I never knew about. Its was once a huge money maker for rulers and tightly controlled.

Edited April 7, 2022 by db_zero

[Battlefront.com]

Another example of intel gathering.  If I understand this video, it's of an elderly Ukrainian bringing the personnel effects of a Russian officer to Ukrainian forces (looks like TD).  The tank was abandoned in front of his house.  Probably not of much practical use, but it does show the sort of methods Ukraine has for gathering information from the field fairly quickly and widely:

 

[kraze]

1 hour ago, TheVulture said:

Russia has apparently "officially confirmed" that the explosion at the Belgorod arsenal on March 29th was due to 3 Tochka-U missiles from Ukraine, which injured 8 people and destroyed 21 vehicles.

IIRC That's the one where there's footage of two Ukrainian helicopters firing rockets in the attack, which probably tells you how reliable Russia's 'confirmation' is.

 

 

Ammo depot was Tochka U.

Fuel depot was choppers.

There were two separate attacks.

Edited April 7, 2022 by kraze

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, db_zero said:

The MLRS would be well suited for this sort of fight. We don't know what the west is sending besides whats already been mentioned. Apparently both the West/US and Ukranians are not disclosing the full inventory of weapons.

Russia is going to move fast, probably faster than it should, to launch the offensive.  The Russians might be idiots at war, but they aren't completely stupid.  They know that every day this war goes on is not a good thing for Russia in every way conceivable.

There's also some rumors that Putin wants this wrapped up by VE Day celebrations.  That's just about a month, which means they have to launch pretty soon or there's no way even a successful attack can tie things up in a bow in that time.

Which is to say that the stuff the West is talking about providing Ukraine now won't likely matter unless it's ammo for systems they already have.

18 minutes ago, db_zero said:

The other possibility? Maybe a phony war. Russia threatens additional offensive action but just sits back and a long stalemate takes place with no cease fire or peace agreement.

They can try, but it won't work.  Stalemate only happens when both sides are incapable of making progress.  Ukraine has the capability to keep the war very, very hot.

18 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Then the West will have to support Ukraine economically sending billions a month while their economies slowdown and slip into a recession with inflation on food and energy skyrocketing.

This is something that needs to be addressed now anyway.  No matter how the war goes this is a reality already.

Steve

[kraze]

7 minutes ago, db_zero said:

The lack of efficiency and corruption in the Russian military and society in general has been discussed in detail. I have to wonder what the role of alcoholism plays.

If you do a search on alcoholism in Russia the stats are staggering. There have already been stories of Russian troops alcohol abuse when stationed in Belarus and the reports of looting in Ukraine looking for booze and the behaviors of drunk Russian troops.

I would not be surprised if toxicology tests were done on dead Russian soldiers would show many were under the influence when KIA. 

Vodka has an interesting history that I never knew about. Its was once a huge money maker for rulers and tightly controlled.

Their propaganda song about some chick wanting (a guy like) putin even has a line that is literally "I want a guy like putin, so he wouldn't drink"

When your dictator-hero building song has a line about alcohol - you know it's bad.

[Battlefront.com]

Quick comment about spending time on debunking Russian lies.  As others have said, it won't have any practical effect on convincing the other side they are being misled.  We saw that here, on this Forum, back in 2014.  Mountains and mountains of evidence that Russia was behind everything going on in Donbas, including MH-17, and the Russians and pro-Russians on our Forum did not give an inch of ground.

However, there is value in seeing how Russia creates alternative reality.  It helps when evaluating information that has unknown legitimacy to start with.  Being familiar with how Russia lies makes it easier to identify when something is more or even less likely to be a piece of Russian propaganda.

These skills, BTW, are very good when trying to sort through conspiracy theories that are not specific to Russia.  The nutjobs that say Sandy Hook school massacre is a fake used all the same denial methods that Russia likes to use.  The Bucha example is a directly comparable.

Steve

[Falaise]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

T-90A also can throw a turret

 

Nothing to do with war...
The music on these images what is it, I love it
perfect music to put on the game !!!

[kraze]

1 hour ago, db_zero said:

That is true but people are still buying Russian energy and that money is going somewhere. China too sets its own exchange rate for the yuan. The Russian population has an older population that remembers living under the old Soviet Regime and the bad times of the 90s after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

I'm skeptical of economic sanctions. Iraq, Iran and North Korea have survived them.

There were no bad times in the 90s after the collapse of USSR.

In fact those were better times compared to USSR. But every new russian dictator stands on blaming his predecessor for russian never changing poverty.

[Commanderski]

It's about time the UN did something: 

The United Nations General Assembly voted Thursday to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council. 

A total of 93 members of the assembly voted in favor of the measure, while 24 were against and 58 abstained. 

Those who voted against the resolution included Russia's regional ally Belarus, China, North Korea, Iran and Syria.

[G.I. Joe]

36 minutes ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

The Battered Helmet

+1 (I'm also all out of likes/upvotes, etc.)

Thanks, Bil! Should have included a link in the original post, my bad...

[sburke]

1 hour ago, IanL said:

I was wondering that too - no really - I was :-). Probably not in as sophisticated a way as @The_Capt but we have heard that the US is sharing intel and it sure seems like that is a factor helping the Ukrainians but how are they managing to get that info out to the guys doing the dirty work? How have the UA managed to keep its command structure up and running and information flowing so well?

I like @The_Capt's guess but even that doesn't show how US intel is getting out there. Is it a myth that it's helping on the low level of individual action? Is the US side distributing info directly to lower levels as part of a decentralized system? I wonder.

I was listening to The Current yesterday (https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-63/clip/15904523 ) where they interviewed a manager of a radio station. He evacuated from Kiyv and reported for service. They asked him about what he used to do and suggested he setup a radio station instead of taking up arms. So, he and his staff have created a make shift studio and set out to play some music, give some news and ask for supplies and information. He gave a simple example of a military command post that was in need of a printer - call went out over the radio and within a few hours they had three.

It really seems a decentralized take action on your own initiative with some basic information sharing is functioning as part of this whole system the UA has created.

I think @LongLeftFlankwas the first to term it crowd sourcing the war.

[db_zero]

28 minutes ago, kraze said:

There were no bad times in the 90s after the collapse of USSR.

In fact those were better times compared to USSR. But every new russian dictator stands on blaming his predecessor for russian never changing poverty.

Ruble collapsed in the 90s. There were shortages. Productivity dropped. 
 

Doesn’t sound like good times to me.

[dan/california]

The "find" part of the Russian tactical/operational concept is utterly broken in this environment. The only effective way to do the finding when the Ukrainians have enormous numbers of super high lethality ATGMs/PGMs is with infantry deployed in a tactical way, which moves at MAYBE two miles an hour, or drones or other remote means, which they don't seem to have even 10% of what they need. They seem desperately short of said infantry as well. So they try to do it while mounted in vehicles, and the finding part occurs when multiple vehicles just blow the bleep up. Then they have to attempt to clean up the mess, and go finding again. Said finding occurs by catastrophic vehicle disassembly, rinse and repeat until you don't have an army anymore.

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Let's say that Battlefront starts selling its games in BFC Bucks.  We set the exchange rate so that the prices on our website are roughly equivalent to their current USD value.  You might think we're daft, but in terms of value you'd be OK with the exchange.

Then we decide to change it so the USD equivalent is now 25% more than what you think the price of the game should be.  You can't stop me from setting the rate, but you can stop buying our games or buying less of them.  Therefore, we have an incentive to keep the exchange rate at about what you think it should be.  For paying things, we are going to be asked to pay in USD, but we might find someone willing to take BFC Bucks if they think they have a value that is the same s our exchange rate, so we have an incentive to keep the exchange rate reasonable in the view of others.  This is the Chinese model.

Then one day BFC Bucks is sanctioned.  Now you aren't buying our games at all and the bills we have to pay are in USD.  Nobody cares what our exchange rate is because nobody wants to use it.  This is the Russian model.

Steve

Very succinctly put.

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

Their propaganda song about some chick wanting (a guy like) putin even has a line that is literally "I want a guy like putin, so he wouldn't drink"

When your dictator-hero building song has a line about alcohol - you know it's bad.

It's not widely remembered, but one of Gorbachev's first big policy initiatives after he took over in the 80s was a temperance campaign...

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

 Mass can be defeated with mass. 

All very good points, as always. But this one, I'd change to Mass can be defeated with Precision.

This seems to be the salient aspect of UA combat above all else- their accuracy. Its still below NATO but definitely above Russia's, except maybe in tactical thermals, as evinced by that keyholed T64 missing BTRs a few hundred meters away.

I'd bet, that for this battle, the UA is going full-bore on long range targeting, primarily with Bays and Arty. Ground forces will do thar thang, soak up the momentum, attract BTGs etc - but UA Arty will keep trashing the last 10 miles of the logisitics tails while the Bays hunt the 155s. 

Hit those two aspects (immediate resupply/reinforcements & supporting fires) while you stall them on the ground...plays to UA's strengths.

[db_zero]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russia is going to move fast, probably faster than it should, to launch the offensive.  The Russians might be idiots at war, but they aren't completely stupid.  They know that every day this war goes on is not a good thing for Russia in every way conceivable.

There's also some rumors that Putin wants this wrapped up by VE Day celebrations.  That's just about a month, which means they have to launch pretty soon or there's no way even a successful attack can tie things up in a bow in that time.

Which is to say that the stuff the West is talking about providing Ukraine now won't likely matter unless it's ammo for systems they already have.

They can try, but it won't work.  Stalemate only happens when both sides are incapable of making progress.  Ukraine has the capability to keep the war very, very hot.

This is something that needs to be addressed now anyway.  No matter how the war goes this is a reality already.

Steve

IDK...as I've said in the past when I look at what's presented in front of me I would have to come to the conclusion Russia is done...but then I think of what Russia had endured and how the Germans as well as the West thought Russia was done in the opening phase of Barbarossa and how the West got many things wrong when this war started and I have doubts. 

As for Putin wants things wrapped up by VE day, might that be a view seen through a western bias? In the West having a war wrapped up by a major holiday-especially a military oriented one might be desirable, but in Russia maybe not?

When the war with Hitler was going badly in the first year with Germany, Stalin insisted on having a military parade IIRC.

Many who study Russia and know far more than I do have commented that sanctions are going to have less effects than we think. The Russian economy is geared for war. I'm sure the Germans were shocked at the Russians packing up entire industries and moving them East. Putin by some accounts already views this as a total war against the West.

People learn to adapt to hardships. The Russian have been known for stoicism.  

Edited April 7, 2022 by db_zero

[db_zero]

5 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

It's not widely remembered, but one of Gorbachev's first big policy initiatives after he took over in the 80s was a temperance campaign...

The yearly alcohol consumption rate of Russian men was 3 times higher than Western males and a good portion of that was spirits which has a higher alcohol content. 

Does appear to be a difference between Russian males and women. Women appear to be less indulgent.

[akd]

Bucha seems to be exceeding even my worst expectations.  When they said “hundreds dead,” I assumed that a good portion of these would be indirect, non-targeted casualties from artillery, exposure, lack of medicine, etc.  All the horrors brought to a city just by virtue of being on the front line of a war.  But today the mayor stated that 90% of the dead had been shot.  And they are still finding bodies…

https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/collecting-bodies-in-bucha

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/06/bucha-barbarism-atrocities-russian-soldiers/?itid=hp-top-table-main

Edited April 7, 2022 by akd