How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[BeondTheGrave]

3 minutes ago, Hapless said:

(As a side note- giving that laser warning recievers are a thing I wonder why no one has decided to put a tank's laser rangefinder on a drone and do all the lasing from a differnent angle?)

Such a good idea, and from the perspective of just the math it should be some basic triangulation to adjust the info to produce an accurate range for the main barrel. 

The real question with drones are what kind you want to have and what you want them to do. In the near term I agree with you @Hapless that you probably dont want individual tank commanders also piloting their little drones around. Too much work, too much information. But simultaneously you need it low enough so that assets arnt hoarded and information is distributed across all units in a small AO. Because it doesn't matter how good your drones and ISR is if its not being put to good use. For all we know Russian drones are getting good snapshots of UA positions but are not distributing it, or providing constant coverage. You want to see the NLAW team before it hits you, rather than try and worry about the shape and contours of the checkpoint or the battalion objective. I could see a drone battery or platoon incorporated into a Coy HQ much like the mortar battery is now. A couple M113s or whatever the Army is using these days, a couple small catapults, maybe five drones plus replacements. They report up to the commander and ALSO distribute more managed sanitized information via a network out to the platoon commanders and down. 

But thinking more ahead, ultimately I think every platoon, and probably every squad or tank within a platoon, will eventually solve this problem. It seems to me a question of doctrine mixed with a little IT. How do you present the information in a clear way, without overtaxing the commander, and without allowing it to sap momentum? Its a solvable problem. When I think of the mid-term drone future I envision a more radically redesigned tank platoon, one based around maybe four tanks and a command vehicle plus drone support rather than five uniform tanks. Its silly but I think of the anime Gundam MS-08 Team. In that you have a platoon of several combat units followed by a command vehicle which has specialized C3ISR equipment and coordinates, at a platoon level, the operations of the other units. I could see the same thing happening with an IRL tank platoon. Four tanks, plus a command Stryker. The Stryker parks somewhere quite, its got the overall platoon commander inside, and he directs his platoons battle. A drone operator or two also work the controls for a drone swarm including surveillance, anti-infantry, and anti-tank drones. Another analogue, though more primitive, is the command relationship we see in the Alien 2 with the Platoon commander back in the APC while the squads move forward with bodycams. Now I dont think thats worthy of emulation (it goes bad for that group) and bodycams are a poor mans replacement for drones and better ISR. But in combination I could see this concept being a potential way forward. Of course it would also radically change the relationship between the commanding officer and his soldiers in ways that I dont think we could really well comprehend. 

1 hour ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

A launcher similar to how the Switchblade is launched mounted to a tank could provide OTH surveillance for a tank crew.  Those could be launched remotely with the crew buttoned.  

I would think that most armored vehicles could be retrofitted to have essentially a box launcher on them somewhere to do exactly that. You 'fire' off your drone, maybe you get four hours on a battery? Even if the tank cant recapture its own drone, a Coy or Bttl level maintenance platoon could stand by with a net and recapture used drones. If the drones were built the right way, you could even carry several 'reloads' in one tank. Im thinking here like what some countries do with their ATGM mounts, some designs either pull the launcher into the crew compartment for a reload or have an automatic reload system. If were talking a bigger more capable drone thats not realistic, but something like a switchblade, essentially a flying camera? I could see carrying two or three of them as a viable option on something like a Stryker or an Abrams. Would depend of course on the drone design, as with everything else its a balancing act between size, weight, and capabilities.

But I can tell you one thing, Elon Musk is about to make a hell of a lot of DARPA money. Anybody who can make smaller sized, more powerful batteries is going to become the Pentagon's new best friend. The real question we should be asking is: How will drone warfare change what kind of car I'm going to drive 

[__Yossarian0815[jby]]

27 minutes ago, sburke said:

I think we can quit with the biggest fascist awards.  Anybody even competing is on the other side.  Doesn't matter if they are the worst or runner up worst.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocaust_trivialization

[db_zero]

As drones proliferate they will become commodity items. Like every other tech device, the cost goes down, capabilities increase and thrown away after one use is possible.

Look at cell phones. They used to cost a fortune for just the basics. Now you can get cheap ones with a lot of features and toss in garbage after 1 use.

That means you’ll some versions like surveillance ones issued and used like ammunition. They’ll be used once and be disposed of. No need to worry about recovering them.

Makes use on every vehicle practical. Launch one, if the sensors and algorithms detect something crews are notified. 

Probably already taken place.

Edited April 6, 2022 by db_zero

[Haiduk]

Some about the scale of usage of commercial drones. This is statictic of one volunteer fund Back-and-Alive: 

Translation: "copters" are flying away very well. From 1500, which we have bought at the beginning of March, only about 200 left [in stock]. Yesterday we have bought AUTELs [AUTEL EVO II - most popular now model in force structures] on 75 millions UAH [this is 1500-1800 drones] and Baltic "Atlases" are expecting soon. 

Edited April 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[sburke]

22 minutes ago, __Yossarian0815[jby] said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocaust_trivialization

Please correct me if I am wrong, but I don't think anyone is trivializing the holocaust.  I think what we are hearing is a relative comparison of the impact on the Ukrainian people regarding German versus Russian fascism.  Now given what we are hearing from some Russian nationalist forces one could say those folks attitudes towards Ukraine mirror the Nazis views and final solution for Jews.  (stated goal to exterminate etc) but I don't believe anyone is trivializing. Unless we are saying that one can never do a comparison to the Nazis when someone is talking about exterminating your own people.

My point was the Russians are clearly exhibiting extreme fascist behavior so can we move on?

[akd]

Russians: Let’s setup up our battery here!

Ukrainians: Ni.

 

[kraze]

1 hour ago, __Yossarian0815[jby] said:

If the Germans had won, not a single ukranian would exist today. Most of the people in this thread would not exist. The nazis had an extermination plan for practically everybody.

There's literally no difference between the two ideologies. Like zero. While germans were doing genocide of jews - russians did genocides of ukrainians, belarusians, moldavans, crimean tatars, chechens and ingushs.

The only "difference" was that an excuse to murder people was "not aryan enough" for one and "not russian enough" for the other - but the outcome was exactly the same.

USSR and Nazi Germany were so alike - they started whole WW2 together as allies.

Edited April 6, 2022 by kraze

[Battlefront.com]

I think we should shuffle the discussion about drone strategy/tactics into another thread.  HUGE topic and beyond what this thread is all about.  By all means continue talking about drones in the Ukraine context, though, as there is a lot to learn from it.
 

Steve

[MikeyD]

All of the political/social terms - Communist, Fascist, Capitalist, Libertarian, Socialist etc. are merely footnotes when your leader is a ruthless sociopath. Ruthless sociopaths govern basically the same regardless of political designation.

[Battlefront.com]

As for the whole Holocaust labeling issue... I'm someone who believes that words lose their meaning when used improperly.  Calling what Russia is doing in Ukraine "genocide" is over the top.  Large scale warcrimes?  Yes.  Crimes against Humanity?  Yes.  I'd even endorse Ethnic Cleansing, especially regarding the forced deportations (though that could turn out to be massive hostage taking) and crazy Russian talk of "Lebensraum" for its people.  All of those terms fit what Russia is doing and all of them justify marshaling the powers of the world to destroy Russia's ability to function as a nation state until it addresses its criminal behavior.

However, Russia is not trying to systematically wipe out all Ukrainians.  That is what Genocide is.  Not murdering for a thrill, not murdering for revenge, not even murdering out of hate.  Targeting a specific group isn't even, on its own, Genocide.  It has to be systematic, not random or selective.  Russia's Mass Murdering (another term that applies) does not meet this standard.

Ask yourself... if the Ukrainian Army dissolved in 3 days as Russia had hoped, would Russia attempt to literally empty out all of eastern Ukraine of every single Ukrainian?  I very much doubt it.  Murder anybody that raises an objection?  Yes.  Rape women and steal anything nailed down?  Yes.  Because Russia is more interested in enslavement, annihilation of a total population runs contrary to its goals. 

Russia as a nation state is definitely cruel and vicious to an extreme extent, but at the end of the day practical.  Can't get those nice aircraft and rocket parts if there's nobody left to make them.  Can't get income off of people if they're dead.  Can't have a buffer population if there is no population to buffer with.  Etc.

Check Russia's history.  All of their MANY mass murder events, including against ethnic Russians, were intended to kill enough people in a particular area so the rest would be compliant.  This is why we still have Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians for example.  Mass murder, ethnic cleansing, terrorizing, and all of that are simply a means to an end... enslavement.  That is not Genocide.

Steve

[AlsatianFelix]

Prediction.

Putin is going to have a giant wank-off on May 9th to celebrate V-E Day and how only Russia beat the Nazis. However, Zelensky gives a speech to the world on May 8th to praise the USSR that Ukraine was part of and how an entire Europe united to defeat a single evil and they're doing it again.

Then Putin can have his lonely celebration the next day with a couple of deflated balloons. There certainly won't be any tanks available for a parade.

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, AlsatianFelix said:

Then Putin can have his lonely celebration the next day with a couple of deflated balloons. There certainly won't be any tanks available for a parade.

Yeah, the Ukrainian farmers don't seem to be in any mood to tow them to Red Square.

It will be interesting to see what the parade is like this year.  Row upon row of shiny zinc coffins is about they best they can muster at the moment.

Steve

[Maquisard manqué]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

As for the whole Holocaust labeling issue... I'm someone who believes that words lose their meaning when used improperly.  Calling what Russia is doing in Ukraine "genocide" is over the top.  Large scale warcrimes?  Yes.  Crimes against Humanity?  Yes.  I'd even endorse Ethnic Cleansing, especially regarding the forced deportations (though that could turn out to be massive hostage taking) and crazy Russian talk of "Lebensraum" for its people.  All of those terms fit what Russia is doing and all of them justify marshaling the powers of the world to destroy Russia's ability to function as a nation state until it addresses its criminal behavior.

However, Russia is not trying to systematically wipe out all Ukrainians.  That is what Genocide is.  Not murdering for a thrill, not murdering for revenge, not even murdering out of hate.  Targeting a specific group isn't even, on its own, Genocide.  It has to be systematic, not random or selective.  Russia's Mass Murdering (another term that applies) does not meet this standard.

Ask yourself... if the Ukrainian Army dissolved in 3 days as Russia had hoped, would Russia attempt to literally empty out all of eastern Ukraine of every single Ukrainian?  I very much doubt it.  Murder anybody that raises an objection?  Yes.  Rape women and steal anything nailed down?  Yes.  However, Russia is more interested in enslavement, therefore annihilation runs contrary to its goals. 

Check Russia's history.  All of their mass murder events, including against ethnic Russians, was intended to kill enough people in a particular area so the rest would be compliant.  This is why we still have Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians for example.  Mass murder, ethnic cleansing, terrorizing, and all of that are simply a means to an end... enslavement.  That is not Genocide.

Steve

Don’t want to give the teacher an apple but well said Steve. And it’s not to detract from the evils that Russia is doing in/to Ukraine. 

Edited April 6, 2022 by Maquisard manqué
Sbelling

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

This should get a LOT more likes.

c'mon people!

I run out of like before i am thru my first cup of coffee, and irritated about it the rest of the day....

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, OldSarge said:

I suppose that you would be able to setup a mesh network where each drone has a uniquely assigned address. Commands could be sent either individually addressed or via broadcast for all of them.

Early in the Global Hawk testing phase a kill yourself shutdown command was sent to a unit under test, it succeeded and also caused a nearby Global Hawk to also shutdown. Oops!

I want tape of the meeting where they had to explain that.

[db_zero]

16 minutes ago, AlsatianFelix said:

Prediction.

Putin is going to have a giant wank-off on May 9th to celebrate V-E Day and how only Russia beat the Nazis. However, Zelensky gives a speech to the world on May 8th to praise the USSR that Ukraine was part of and how an entire Europe united to defeat a single evil and they're doing it again.

Then Putin can have his lonely celebration the next day with a couple of deflated balloons. There certainly won't be any tanks available for a parade.

 

I actually like to watch this as well China’s spectacle’s. If their combined arms execution was like their parades we’d be in trouble.

This years parade will be interesting to see. You often see many of the Russian troops taking part smiling as they march. I expect a much more somber experience this year.

I don’t know if the same commanders and troops take part year after year but if so there’s probably going to be new faces this year.

 

[dan/california]

49 minutes ago, akd said:

Russians: Let’s setup up our battery here!

Ukrainians: Ni.

 

Glory to Ukraine! Get these people more guided rounds, that was brilliant work, but with guidance they would have erased the lot of them. Also why didn't the trucks just gas it in any direction at all once they figured out they parking in the bulls eye.

[chuckdyke]

8 hours ago, kraze said:

benevolent dictators.

It is an Australian expression like a skyhook. Easy to write impossible to get. Dictators paint themselves as benevolent democrats inside their one-party system. 

Edited April 6, 2022 by chuckdyke
spelling

[Cpl Steiner]

I imagine there must be a lot more interest now in BFC's professional edition of CMx2 made for military training?

[dan/california]

I wonder if the parading forces will march straight to the rail yards, and on to Ukraine? Or if Putin doesn't dare commit his Praetorian Guard?

[db_zero]

55 minutes ago, akd said:

Russians: Let’s setup up our battery here!

Ukrainians: Ni.

 

It’s just crazy how you can now view real war like this. The 1991 Gulf War was a revolution in how war was reported and shaped.

Now you can see it in real time. What’s next? VR?

[Lethaface]

11 hours ago, c3k said:

A much more useful measure of politics uses a different spectrum. (BTW, "right wing fascist" was a label used by the Communists in the '20s to differentiate two different forms of socialism).

The spectrum to use is linear. On the far right is total individual liberty. Call it anarchism.

On the far left is total government control. 

Using that, one can see that fascism, socialism, communism are much more closely related than democracies.

There are variants on this, but freedom vs. control is a much more useful measure. It shows that "right wing fascists" are really just a form of left-wing totalitarianism. (And, boy, do they hate being reminded of that.)

Although I think the terms 'left' vs 'right' are inadequate and lead to narrowmindedness, this description is far from accurate or complete.

Anarchists are generally considered / see themselves as extreme left while those that want state enforced rules  for discrimination and oppression of specific groups of people (fascists) are generally seen as extreme right.

FYI large parts of Western Europe have been or are successful social-democracies for a long time. 

To not go off topic too much conceptually left is more about social equality while the right is more about each men for himself. But then there are many more perspectives. Generally the 'extreme' variants of either spectrum are considered to be conceptually similar if implemented in practice by a state. It always leads to autocracy / dictatorship.

Anyway to describe right as freedom and left as control is far to simple besides plain wrong.

 

[Kinophile]

Tamanskaya has taken a beating, so let's see theyre even there.

[billbindc]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is why I said "politically active" portion of the population.  And I should also have said Bavaria where the Nazi Party was strongest (I did a quick check and indeed the BVP had the most seats of any party for quite a while). 

It has been a long time since I dove into the numbers, so I could be mistaken about the details.  But my point is valid that the population that was initially swayed by Communist ideology didn't seem to mind switching to Nazi ideology.  Maybe not overnight, but eventually.

Steve

The term you are looking for is Rindersteak Nazi  ("Beefsteak" - as in black on the outside/red on the inside) which applies to those ex-Social Democrats or Communists that joined in large part because they were attracted to Strasser's more economically radical version of Nazism. They were very common in the SA with predictable results on the Night of the Long Knives.

Edited April 6, 2022 by billbindc

[db_zero]

Deleted 

Edited April 6, 2022 by db_zero