How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[db_zero]

If you think the population trends are bad for Russia they are even worse for China. A rapidly aging population and low birth rates. Even worse is China may have overstated its past and current population by a significant amount.

At the current rate you could see a population that is halved in China by 2050 if they overstated or 2100 if population wasn't overstated.

This greatly affects the size of the military, size of economy, type of economy and a whole range of other factors.

[danfrodo]

when looking at ways Putin could fall, the most likely is from the powerful staging a coup of some sort.  Not easy considering Putin has his own security organization (two of them).  He's led Russia into an epic disaster and there's lots of crime bosses who's klepto-empires are getting badly hurt.  So maybe the Russian organized crime lords can find a way.  Sad that that's who I look to for hope.

As far as a popular uprising, if the people show up in the streets it all comes down whether or not the soldiers will fire on their own people (-- whether they consider those people to be their own).  If they fire, the uprising will probably fail.  If they don't, then Putin will swing from a lampost, metaphorically speaking.  Though I am hoping that the I can someday change out 'metaphor' for 'literal'.

[The Steppenwulf]

4 hours ago, c3k said:

Agree with the friction and other difficulties.

So basically what you did was change your position based upon information that you've since read in others posts which has outlined that it's not easy at all for Putin to just throw more troops into the grinder. Not easy at all! Let me remind you what you originally stated so we can all see the contrast:
 

Quote

Putin, conscripts, Russian law, and declaring war.

Those are all just figments of the West's imagination

If that were not enough, two additional points:

1. There is a very good reason this is called a 'Special Operation' and is not a 'war'. 
2. There is a very good reason Putin is resorting to desperate measures to use Chechens, Syrians, Georgians, mercenaries and just about anyone else he can find, employ, bribe or strongarm (quality unimportant).

Are these really "figments of the West's imagination"?

So I'm still waiting to hear from you why 1 and 2 above are really just trivial matters for Putin's manpower as you have  claimed they are. In your own words....

Quote

So, I think I do have a deep understanding of how Putin can leverage his nation's manpower so he would not lose face.

Everything that I have read about the Russian system and the conflict flies totally in the face of this statement that Putin can leverage his nation's manpower, it's simply not that easy without declaring war to justify it. But you asserted that Putin does not need to declare war, in your words:
 

Quote

There is no need to declare war, nor does the West have any say on what happens. 

That would allow conscripts to flood the zone

Given that manpower is now already a make or break situation for the Russian war effort (I mean we can all see that), ask the question ..... why is he not doing this ^ already?

Edited April 5, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[sburke]

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

And yet I think we underestimate how well Putin's propaganda machine has done it's job in Russia. Yesterday I've watched a documentary about China and the view of the Chinese population of the West. This is not the old China anymore, but a determined, confident world power, that despises the weakness and decadency of the West. And although I know that Russia can't be compared to China I think the hatred of the West will motivate them to keep standing behind Putin and continue this fight to the bitter end. 

One of the things that struck me in the documentary about China was the statement of a China-expert that Chinese are used to suffering ('Eating bitterness'), while the West is 'in pursuit of happiness'. I think the Russians are also used to eating bitterness. Instead of a speedy collapse I think we are in for another long and bitter Cold War, with Putin in power, surviving disaster afer disaster like Stalin. Many people expect another 'downfall', like happened to the Soviets, but I don't.

China will profit from what's happening in Europe, that much is sure. I bet they are enjoying themselves tremendously, because no matter how we turn it, the war in Ukraine is costing the West a LOT of money.

the massacre in Bucha has had a lot of knock-on effects that are really bad for Putin including in China.  China isn't quite the monolith we tend to see it as nor is it as confident as an external viewer may think.  China's social dynamic is a bit like Russia's in the sense that there is a social contract more or less that as long as most people see economic improvement, they are willing to accept a lot.  Problem is that contract is shaky with some of the demographics China is facing.

Chinese Citizens Decry Bucha Killings on Social Media (msn.com)

[Taranis]

 

It seems that the 106 Guards Air Assault Division could had been redeploy in the Izium bridghead sector. It was previously in the Nothern Kiev area.

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

the massacre in Bucha has had a lot of knock-on effects that are really bad for Putin including in China.  China isn't quite the monolith we tend to see it as nor is it as confident as an external viewer may think.  China's social dynamic is a bit like Russia's in the sense that there is a social contract more or less that as long as most people see economic improvement, they are willing to accept a lot.  Problem is that contract is shaky with some of the demographics China is facing.

Chinese Citizens Decry Bucha Killings on Social Media (msn.com)

This. 

If you think "wolf warrior diplomacy" is a sign of a confident, rising power, I have bridge in Guangzhou to sell you. "By 2050 China’s population will be 4% lower than today, while it’s working-age population will have declined by 12%.  At that time roughly 36% of its population will be over the age of 60 and nearly 14% under the age of 15." 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3039064/chinas-ageing-population-prompts-plan-deal-looming-silver-shock

Things have gotten *worse* for China demographically since this was written in 2019. 

They best way to understand China under Xi is that the leadership sees a closing window of opportunity as growth levels off and the population hasn't yet begun to plummet. They are going to grab what they can as long as the price isn't too high in order to buttress their position. It's a fortress mentality, not a global domination mentality.  

[CHEqTRO]

Some people were asking where were the Ukranian armored units. Well, some incredible battle footage of a single ukranian tank engaging a whole column of russian BTR80A/82A and some tanks has recently surfaced:

Impressive stuff. Seems like situational awareness and proper spacing is an alien concept to russian commanders.

Edited April 5, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[dan/california]

This guy seems to be worth a follow. The Baltics have never forgotten they are next on the bears menu.

[akd]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Т-72BA (author of tweet mistook T-72BA and T-72B3)

 

That’s a Sosna-U thermal sight, but without the armored cover.  Tank that has been stripped?

Edited April 5, 2022 by akd

[The Steppenwulf]

11 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Some people were asking where were the Ukranian armored units. Well, some incredible battle footage of a single ukranian tank engaging a whole column of russian BTR80A/82A and some tanks has recently surfaced:

Impressive stuff. Seems like situational awareness and proper spacing is an alien concept to russian commanders.

Incredible stuff, I'd like to know whereabouts this footage has been shot?

Those infantry just running down the road behind the BTRs - no screening or scouting out on the flanks .

Edited April 5, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[sburke]

Italy just kicked out 30 Russian diplomats.  We are up to 230 so far in the EU.

[sross112]

17 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Some people were asking where were the Ukranian armored units. Well, some incredible battle footage of a single ukranian tank engaging a whole column of russian BTR80A/82A and some tanks has recently surfaced:

Impressive stuff. Seems like situational awareness and proper spacing is an alien concept to russian commanders.

Pretty professional tanker there. Very nice keyhole position.

[CHEqTRO]

53 minutes ago, The Steppenwulf said:

Incredible stuff, I'd like to know whereabouts this footage has been shot?

Those infantry just running down the road behind the BTRs - no screening or scouting out on the flanks .

Well, the original publication cames from this telegram account: https://t.me/s/karpatsich

If you scroll up, they have a post talking about enemy movements around Slobozhanske near Kharkiv, so I guess they must be deployed around that area.

Edit: So looking at the map just posted by @Taranis, we can guess that those russian units belonged to either the 254 Motor Rifle regiment or to the 59 Tank regiment.

EDIT: Disregard all this, the engagement area has been geocalized and its around Chernihiv, not Kharkiv

Edited April 5, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Kinophile]

From that Economist article, this line especially: 

"Satellite images allow Ukraine’s armed forces to see enemy movements in real time. “We see everything. We know where they are and where they are headed,” said Sasha."

This is footage provided to coordinating command for battle security. So we can assume that combat units also have it, but at what level? 

Over to you, @Haiduk

I wonder do RUS Div HQs have access to real time satellite ISR? I assume Army level+, but Div? Or Bde?

 

[Taranis]

 

Russian army shelling Maryinka with MLRS GRAD (south of Donetsk)

Edited April 5, 2022 by Taranis

[Kinophile]

30 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Some people were asking where were the Ukranian armored units. Well, some incredible battle footage of a single ukranian tank engaging a whole column of russian BTR80A/82A and some tanks has recently surfaced:

Impressive stuff. Seems like situational awareness and proper spacing is an alien concept to russian commanders.

At 0:40 the BTR firing aims in the tanks direction but then shifts back and fires another burst, as if it hadn't seen the damn thing. Panicky or damaged optics, maybe.

tbh I'm surprised the UKR tank is unsupported and alone. They seem to move a bit so seems functional. Also its odd seeing them miss, like  watching a WW2 film. I'm so used to m1A2s and their 1 shot/1 kill, esp at that range. An abrams would have slaughtered all those BTRs. 

Still, good work; thats a motivated and smart crew for sure.

Edited April 5, 2022 by Kinophile

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, db_zero said:

If you think the population trends are bad for Russia they are even worse for China. A rapidly aging population and low birth rates. Even worse is China may have overstated its past and current population by a significant amount.

At the current rate you could see a population that is halved in China by 2050 if they overstated or 2100 if population wasn't overstated.

This greatly affects the size of the military, size of economy, type of economy and a whole range of other factors.

Is Europe or the US in better shape, I wonder? With regard to population, I mean.

[Aragorn2002]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

At 0:40 the BTR firing aims in the tanks direction but then shifts back and fires another burst, as if it hadn't seen the damn thing. Panicky or damaged optics, maybe.

tbh I'm surprised the UKR tank is unsupported and alone. They seem to move a bit so seems functional. Also its odd seeing them miss, like  watching a WW2 film. I'm so used to m1A2s and their 1 shot/1 kill, esp at that range. An abrams would have slaughtered all those BTRs. 

Still, good work; thats a motivated and smart crew for sure.

Fascinating stuff! Pity there were no drones in ww2.

Edited April 5, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Maquisard manqué]

5 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Is Europe or the US in better shape, I wonder? With regard to population, I mean.

Yes. Bolstered by immigration. 

[Lethaface]

17 minutes ago, sburke said:

Italy just kicked out 30 Russian diplomats.  We are up to 230 so far in the EU.

Another company for the frontline

[Fernando]

17 minutes ago, sburke said:

Italy just kicked out 30 Russian diplomats.  We are up to 230 so far in the EU.

Spain has kicked out 27

[G.I. Joe]

4 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Fascinating stuff! Pity there were no drones in ww2.

Actually, there were...they just didn't have the ability to record footage like that.

[Haiduk]

27 minutes ago, The Steppenwulf said:

Incredible stuff, I'd like to know whereabouts this footage has been shot?

Maybe Nova Basan', Chernihiv oblast 

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Is Europe or the US in better shape, I wonder? With regard to population, I mean.

It gets complicated.  Most relatively well-off countries have declining birth rates for a lot of different reasons.   Generally, what alters the demographics is immigration.  This can and has created a lot of social upheaval due to perceptions about cultural change.  Immigration increases diversity which can be perceived as a threat by other groups.  If you look at Japan for example, immigration has long been deterred and the result is a rapidly aging but generally uniform non diverse population.

In the US you have an increasingly diverse population that is aging more slowly, but with a lot of social issues due to that immigration.

US Aging Population Problems & Healthcare Issues (businessinsider.com)

Europe's population is aging rapidly. Here's how to turn that into an opportunity | CNN

[Homo_Ferricus]

32 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Some people were asking where were the Ukranian armored units. Well, some incredible battle footage of a single ukranian tank engaging a whole column of russian BTR80A/82A and some tanks has recently surfaced:

Impressive stuff. Seems like situational awareness and proper spacing is an alien concept to russian commanders.

Amazing footage. it's a tight keyhole, solid position. But only thing shown are misses, or perhaps AP flying through BTR armor without catastrophic effect. Looks like a tank pouring smoke from a hatch may have been hit and kept on moving? There is definitely one dead BTR that looks to have been hit in ammo storage or with a HEAT round in the killzone.

Goes to show you an interesting problem that doesn't exist in CM--do I keep an APFSDS or a HEAT in the barrel?