How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

I have a theory about the Bucha road murders.  I think this was Russia's way of compensating for the inability to beat Ukraine on the battlefield.  March a bunch of citizens out onto the road, murder them so they are easy found, then withdraw with a "see, we showed you!" attitude.

I don't know from how far up the chain of command this concept came from, but I'd say it was at least company level though likely higher.  I doubt a platoon would do this sort of thing on its own accord.

Note, I am talking only about the specific action of Russian troops deliberately putting bodies out on the road and/or killing them on the spot.  The murders, torture, rape, and other things going on are likely being done for different reasons.  More than one, I'm sure. 

However, the common element here is that Russian units are inherently murderous to an extent completely alien to us in the West.  What would be a horrible exception in a Western armed force is routine in the Russian.  What would be the actions of a few individuals in the West is most likely being done under orders of at least a junior officer in the Russian armed forces.  Then we add the FSB into the mix who are an instrument of terror and inhumanity in their own country against their own people... not difficult to explain their behavior towards foreigners.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, DMS said:

This is your explanation for irrationality of shooting civilian people just before leaving? (Bodies are not burried, even not stiffened) Mad soldiers who kill people because they envy to their wealth. 

I am not sure, should I write that this is BS and Russia is generally more wealthy than Ukraine. That I was in Ukraine, that I know statistics about their salaries and their median salary is lower (average salary also lower, obviously). Or all that is odd because all gone emotional. Well, I did it.

OK, maybe he is wrong about the wealth motivation.  Assuming you do not believe Russian forces are willingly murdering civilians, including children, just for fun, what do you think are the reasons for the obvious war crimes of the Russian forces in Ukraine?  I am not asking you for any other reason than wanting to hear your opinion.  You are Russian, you served in the Russian Army, therefore you might have insights that we do not.

Steve

[ASL Veteran]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I have a theory about the Bucha road murders.  I think this was Russia's way of compensating for the inability to beat Ukraine on the battlefield.  March a bunch of citizens out onto the road, murder them so they are easy found, then withdraw with a "see, we showed you!" attitude.

I don't know from how far up the chain of command this concept came from, but I'd say it was at least company level though likely higher.  I doubt a platoon would do this sort of thing on its own accord.

Note, I am talking only about the specific action of Russian troops deliberately putting bodies out on the road and/or killing them on the spot.  The murders, torture, rape, and other things going on are likely being done for different reasons.  More than one, I'm sure. 

However, the common element here is that Russian units are inherently murderous to an extent completely alien to us in the West.  What would be a horrible exception in a Western armed force is routine in the Russian.  What would be the actions of a few individuals in the West is most likely being done under orders of at least a junior officer in the Russian armed forces.  Then we add the FSB into the mix who are an instrument of terror and inhumanity in their own country against their own people... not difficult to explain their behavior towards foreigners.

Steve

The Russian command structure has been taking a bit of a beating so maybe that's a contributing factor.  Less experienced and trained officers taking over for more experienced officers - a unit's cohesion could be adversely affected.  The replacement commanders might not have as much control of the troops / or the replacement officers aren't quite as well screened or trained.

 

I just wanted to add that historically 'partisan activity' whether real or imagined will often cause soldiers to take out their frustrations on a civilian populace.  They are perceived as 'aiding and abetting attacks on friendly troops' and suffer as a consequence.

Edited April 3, 2022 by ASL Veteran

[asurob]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I have a theory about the Bucha road murders.  I think this was Russia's way of compensating for the inability to beat Ukraine on the battlefield.  March a bunch of citizens out onto the road, murder them so they are easy found, then withdraw with a "see, we showed you!" attitude.

I don't know from how far up the chain of command this concept came from, but I'd say it was at least company level though likely higher.  I doubt a platoon would do this sort of thing on its own accord.

Note, I am talking only about the specific action of Russian troops deliberately putting bodies out on the road and/or killing them on the spot.  The murders, torture, rape, and other things going on are likely being done for different reasons.  More than one, I'm sure. 

However, the common element here is that Russian units are inherently murderous to an extent completely alien to us in the West.  What would be a horrible exception in a Western armed force is routine in the Russian.  What would be the actions of a few individuals in the West is most likely being done under orders of at least a junior officer in the Russian armed forces.  Then we add the FSB into the mix who are an instrument of terror and inhumanity in their own country against their own people... not difficult to explain their behavior towards foreigners.

Steve

This.  Precisely.  It's what the other people in this thread have been saying.  In Western units...something like this happens...it's usually the act of one soldier or a small group of soldiers who are punished by prison (or in some cases worse) when what happens come out.  It's the exception not the rule.  In Russian armies...it's the rule.  It's why we tend to dehumanize the russian soldiers...because we in the west can't fathom armies doing something like this intentionally.  

[billbindc]

12 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

Thing with average income is that in a society characterised by big inequality it can be quite misleading. My guess is that these crimes are caused by a mixture of envy, frustration with the situation and an attempt to regain control through terror.

 

Russian income is quite uneven by region: 

 

[ASL Veteran]

sort of an odd part of the map where the highest incomes are.  That must be where all the oil is drilled or something.

[akd]

1 minute ago, ASL Veteran said:

sort of an odd part of the map where the highest incomes are.  That must be where all the oil is drilled or something.

Low population and resource extraction areas = high GDP per capita

[Lethaface]

13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

  

Yes, absolutely there is a reason.  Though note these programs are OLD by today's standards.  They predate drones, so at the time they were the best game in town hands down.  Now?  They still have a place, but not as much as they used to judging by how effective Ukraine's capabilities are.  Snap firing, no drone, moving target... dumb rounds will under perform compared to a smart round.  Pretty much every time.

Yup, and I expect that most of the Ukrainian rounds aren't hitting much closer than that.  In some cases even further away by my eyeball.  But certainly closer than the 30+ that the old 1977 document cited.

Remember to not compare apples to oranges.  Snap firing smart rounds and having them get to within 4m of a moving target is amazing.  Can't do that with individual dumb munitions except by sheer luck even with a drone.  Without a drone, the dumb rounds have no chance except by massed fire.

So, with that keep in mind that Ukraine has been putting rocket/missile and artillery rounds (including mortars) pretty much right on target pretty much 1-2 salvos.  They don't have smart munitions as far as we can tell, but they do have drones.  It is logical to conclude that drones + 8 years of experience are what's making the difference here.

Steve

 

A few years ago @Haiduk was sharing movies of Ukraine mortars directed by drone, firing pinpoint accurate inside DLPR trenches and direct hits on BMPs. 

[kraze]

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

 

Russian income is quite uneven by region: 

 

Furthermore much of russian financial stats are just as full of lies as stats about their "#2 army in the world".

The proof, apart from russians looting things anyone can afford in any european country, is, quite unsurprisingly, in Google maps.

A huge chunk of their population still lives in wooden barracks that have no toilets, most cities have whole streets made of those. Dirt roads are the norm in most regional centers and don't, just don't google images for "трасса лена".

If their nation was wealthy - would they still be living in absolutely horrible conditions?

Edited April 3, 2022 by kraze

[akd]

Aftermath of failed Russian attack in the Donbas:

 

[DesertFox]

Can´t get my head around those german idiots...

 

 

[MikeyD]

I'm reminded of an old statistics joke. Bill Gates walks into a bar. Suddenly the 'average yearly wage' of everyone in the bar is a million dollars. If you've got oligarch super-rich living in an area with normal people that'll distort the 'statistical average income' of a place. Some individuals hold more wealth than the bottom 50% of the nation put together.

Edited April 3, 2022 by MikeyD

[kraze]

18 minutes ago, ASL Veteran said:

The Russian command structure has been taking a bit of a beating so maybe that's a contributing factor.  Less experienced and trained officers taking over for more experienced officers - a unit's cohesion could be adversely affected.  The replacement commanders might not have as much control of the troops / or the replacement officers aren't quite as well screened or trained.

That's not it.

In every single war russians fought they always did heinous warcrimes.

Remember - they were winning in Georgia and Syria and they did literally the same thing. Massacre of Aleppo by russians was a prime example of russians just going in and killing everyone they see.

And they even filmed how they tortured civilians. That video where two russian soldiers break bones of a syrian civilian with a sledgehammer gave me the creeps until they started doing that here.

As I've pointed out earlier - for a westerner it's hard to comprehend how unbelievably violent russians are.

Edited April 3, 2022 by kraze

[Aragorn2002]

28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I have a theory about the Bucha road murders.  I think this was Russia's way of compensating for the inability to beat Ukraine on the battlefield.  March a bunch of citizens out onto the road, murder them so they are easy found, then withdraw with a "see, we showed you!" attitude.

I don't know from how far up the chain of command this concept came from, but I'd say it was at least company level though likely higher.  I doubt a platoon would do this sort of thing on its own accord.

Note, I am talking only about the specific action of Russian troops deliberately putting bodies out on the road and/or killing them on the spot.  The murders, torture, rape, and other things going on are likely being done for different reasons.  More than one, I'm sure. 

However, the common element here is that Russian units are inherently murderous to an extent completely alien to us in the West.  What would be a horrible exception in a Western armed force is routine in the Russian.  What would be the actions of a few individuals in the West is most likely being done under orders of at least a junior officer in the Russian armed forces.  Then we add the FSB into the mix who are an instrument of terror and inhumanity in their own country against their own people... not difficult to explain their behavior towards foreigners.

Steve

What most surprises me is that so many people are surprised by this behaviour of the Russian army. It has always been their way. Murdering, raping, looting. Ask the Afghans. Ask anyone that ever experienced the misfortune of being 'liberated' by the Russians. And with an openly criminal government, where's the surprise? They shot a civilian airliner out of the sky and adding insult to injury simply denied it, although few crimes have been documented so well. And the world let's them get away with it. Over and over again. No more, I say!

Edited April 3, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[womble]

14 minutes ago, billbindc said:

 

Russian income is quite uneven by region: 

 

GDP per capita isn't a great indicator of salaries. But it's a certainty that Russia has some of the widest disparities between highest and lowest incomes, and a pretty good bet that even the contraktniks aren't being paid "middle class" wages, even by the standards of the civilian population of Russia.

[Bulletpoint]

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I have a theory about the Bucha road murders.  I think this was Russia's way of compensating for the inability to beat Ukraine on the battlefield.  March a bunch of citizens out onto the road, murder them so they are easy found, then withdraw with a "see, we showed you!" attitude.

I read that a reporter (I think from the BBC) thought it looked like the bodies had been dumped from a moving truck, so it could be that they were originally meant to be taken to the Bucha mass grave but that the situation changed and the truck decided to escape as quickly as possible, dumping the bodies along the road as the truck sped away.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Can´t get my head around those german idiots...

 

 

Such things are a distraction.  The logistics requirements to have Ukrainians operate these vehicles effectively is outside of the scope of their current needs.  Even if they sent a ton of spare parts with each Marder, who is going to fix them? 

Even sending them Slovak or Polish modified T-72s has some issues that come with it.  Lots of modifications that Ukrainian tank crews and mechanics are unfamiliar with.  I also doubt any of the data/instruction plates inside are in Ukrainian.  However, the tanks are more similar than not.  Ukraine can put these to good use.  Same with former Soviet aircraft... different but not alien.

Sending Marders is as flawed as those suggesting giving Ukrainians F-16s or Patriots.  After the war is over?  Sure, that is a great idea and I fully endorse that and more.  But what Ukraine needs now is stuff they already know how to use and keep running.

Steve

[Haiduk]

27 minutes ago, billbindc said:

 

Russian income is quite uneven by region: 

 

GDP and people wellneess can't be matched in Russia. All Russian GDP turns in luxury yachts, London real estates, villas in Switzerland and Italy, millions in foreign banks and off-shores. Russian oligarchs, most of them are just purses of Putin and Co have all income. Russian people except rich Moscow, St.Peterburg and some other cities, indeed have average salary in 220-300 USD according to pre-war exchange rates. High "Average salary" in Russia is average between dozen millions income of oligarchs and businessmen, big salaries in Moscow and 15-20000 RU of usual salary in the Russian outback.

   

Edited April 3, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

What most surprises me is that so many people are surprised by this behaviour of the Russian army. It has always been their way. Murdering, raping, looting. Ask the Afghans. Ask anyone that ever experienced the misfortune of being 'liberated' by the Russians. And with an openly criminal government, where's the surprise?

Yes, there should be no surprise.  We don't even have to look at their behavior in other countries, we can just look at what they've done in Ukraine since 2014.  All of this brutality is evident.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I read that a reporter (I think from the BBC) thought it looked like the bodies had been dumped from a moving truck, so it could be that they were originally meant to be taken to the Bucha mass grave but that the situation changed and the truck decided to escape as quickly as possible, dumping the bodies along the road as the truck sped away.

That is possible too, but it is not incompatible with my theory above that this was done to send a message.  "We're pulling out, what do we do with all of these bodies?"  "Put them in the truck and let's drop them on the road on the way out of town.  That will show them who they are messing with!"  As with everything in the world, sometimes unexpected circumstances stimulates creativity.

Steve

[Lethaface]

7 hours ago, Kraft said:

English subtitles, these are the guys who ambushed the 4 BMDs with dead VDV littererd around near Gostomel. Some unreleased footage and background. The "strange idea" sounds like a nice intel gift

 

Thanks, interesting video. From what he says I can only salute his humanity and hope he will be able to get to his first booze soon! (and forget the stuff he wants to forget).

[DesertFox]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Such things are a distraction.  The logistics requirements to have Ukrainians operate these vehicles effectively is outside of the scope of their current needs.  Even if they sent a ton of spare parts with each Marder, who is going to fix them? 

Even sending them Slovak or Polish modified T-72s has some issues that come with it.  Lots of modifications that Ukrainian tank crews and mechanics are unfamiliar with.  I also doubt any of the data/instruction plates inside are in Ukrainian.  However, the tanks are more similar than not.  Ukraine can put these to good use.  Same with former Soviet aircraft... different but not alien.

Sending Marders is as flawed as those suggesting giving Ukrainians F-16s or Patriots.  After the war is over?  Sure, that is a great idea and I fully endorse that and more.  But what Ukraine needs now is stuff they already know how to use and keep running.

Steve

Steve the Ukrainians want to pay for those tanks. They are fully aware of all those logistic and maintanance problems which accompany them. But the germans refuse and decide to pay for their demilitarisation instead of selling them.

[Bulletpoint]

Do you think Mariupol will be able to hold out?

[Aragorn2002]

4 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Steve the Ukrainians want to pay for those tanks. They are fully aware of all those logistic and maintanance problems which accompany them. But the germans refuse and decide to pay for their demilitarisation instead of selling them.

Perhaps they are keeping them in reserve for the Bundeswehr in case the balloon goes up?

[danfrodo]

28 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Can´t get my head around those german idiots...

 

 

I think Trent Telenko has risen to his level of incompetence, which is just one step higher than maintenence/repair master sergeant.  His early postings on tires, maintenence, etc, were quite informative.  Since then he's just a clown chasing shiny objects.  Like Steve said, Ukraine has no logistics for these vehicles. But they would look very lovely in an updated CMBS that has lots of NATO in it......

Having said that, it absolutely abhors me to disagree w DesertFox on anything.  So I agree the Germans were, early on, behaving like cowards and had to be shamed into doing the right thing.  They were in a bind over the natural gas and that made them vulnerable to extortion by Putin.  But now, lesson learned, and Germany seems to be doing better.  The german govt is not pro-Putin, that's just worthy of a tabloid.   Germany is in a bind over energy.  And it needs to do the right thing, take the pain, and fix it's energy problem (which will take time).

 

NOTE:  posted this before seeing DesertFox's reply.  So maybe I am way off base on the logistics issue

Edited April 3, 2022 by danfrodo
update