How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

 

 

[danfrodo]

7 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

days?  Within days?  We can haz tanks tanks to Urkaine in days?  So are we finally gonna give them the gawdamm jets???   The whole "don't upset little Vlad else he'll throw a fit" bull-t has driven me crazy from the start.

I know I am feeding into my wishful thinking but if these are combat worthy and can be on the southern front in next couple weeks that could make a big difference.  We'll see if UA can do a better job against ATGMs than russia did, though I suspect morale will be a big factor.  Takes some guts to ambush an armored column  from RPG range.

Putin is gonna completely flip out over this.  And he'll send jets and missiles to try to stop the trains.  And hopefully those jets & missiles will be shot down w the AD systems that have been sent.

[DesertFox]

12 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

days?  Within days?  We can haz tanks tanks to Urkaine in days?  So are we finally gonna give them the gawdamm jets???   The whole "don't upset little Vlad else he'll throw a fit" bull-t has driven me crazy from the start.

I know I am feeding into my wishful thinking but if these are combat worthy and can be on the southern front in next couple weeks that could make a big difference.  We'll see if UA can do a better job against ATGMs than russia did, though I suspect morale will be a big factor.  Takes some guts to ambush an armored column  from RPG range.

Putin is gonna completely flip out over this.  And he'll send jets and missiles to try to stop the trains.  And hopefully those jets & missiles will be shot down w the AD systems that have been sent.

I really hope it happens and doesn´t end like the "MiG deal". After having seen multiple reports on Bucha today I am finished with this. They need to completely wipe them out.

[MikeyD]

I read (in an earlier post?) that Germany is transferring a sizeable number of of its old Soviet era East German T-72s to Ukraine, or more precisely some of its old T72s that it had earlier transferred to other countries and they now want them back to hand to Ukraine. So we're not talking Leopard 2Ms and Leclercs

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

I read (in an earlier post?) that Germany is transferring a sizeable number of of its old Soviet era East German T-72s to Ukraine, or more precisely some of its old T72s that it had earlier transferred to other countries and they now want them back to hand to Ukraine. So we're not talking Leopard 2Ms and Leclercs

Nope we are talking ex-NVA gear. Germany sold them I don´t know where but on a contractual basis still has to give "green light" if someone wants to re-sell them. That is the case with the swedish upgraded BMP-1s which now the Czech Republic is handing over to Ukraine. I don´t know the wherabouts of the ex-NVA T-72M1s, but maybe they went to poland? Ukraine needs gear they don´t need to be especially trained on, so everything warpac helps somehow. Ex-NVA Arty pieces which went to Estonia AFAIK are also in the discussion.

[dan/california]

Read this, then tell me why EVERY plane, armored vehicle, and soldier in NATO is not being fueled armed and dispatched to the front lines in Ukraine right now. If the Russians are still there when they get there it's on them.

[Fenris]

I wonder if this is real/true

 

[Machor]

4 hours ago, sross112 said:

Russian Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Forces Head Igor Kirillov claimed on March 31 that Ukraine asked Bayraktar (the Turkish manufacturer of many of Ukraine’s UAVs) to equip Ukraine’s drones with an aerosol spraying mechanism for biological weapons in December 2021.

Since this was widely circulated online, here's the explanation:

 

[Probus]

   This war has taught us one thing for sure.  Tanks need drones to scout for them every bit as much as infantry needs drones to scout for them too.  Maybe the Russians are gonna have to settle for drone CAS since they can't seem to coordinate their aircraft well enough to fulfil that role.

   BTW, How may confirmed cases of Russian friendly fire involving aircraft have been seen?  Anyone know?

[CAZmaj]

13 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Guys, his (Kraze that is) country is under attack. And even experts from the BBC are convinced at least 80% of the Russians are behind Putin and his war. Is this really the time and place to show how enlighted and wise you are? Let Kraze utter his anger and ignore it, if you like. But please stop this nonsical discussion about the Russian nation not being part of and responsible for the crimes commited in it's name.

That! + 1

[akd]

29 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

I read (in an earlier post?) that Germany is transferring a sizeable number of of its old Soviet era East German T-72s to Ukraine, or more precisely some of its old T72s that it had earlier transferred to other countries and they now want them back to hand to Ukraine. So we're not talking Leopard 2Ms and Leclercs

BMP-1s from Sweden

[Machor]

3 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

I think the lead-in”Initial reports” says it all. You are assuming that those are Ukrainians that were executed by the Russians. We don’t know that. To be honest, they could be Collaborators executed by the Ukrainian towns people.

Adding to @Kraft's insight, some victims' hands were tied with white cloth. The Russians tie white cloth on their arms for identification.

Remember the Russian prisoners Ukrainians took early in the war, and how they had their hands tied with yellow tape?

[Fenris]

This pics coming out of Bucha defy comprehension.

Unbelievable.

[Machor]

RE: Russian public support for the war

RE: The Russian troops evacuated from Chernobyl

 

[keas66]

18 minutes ago, Fenris said:

This pics coming out of Bucha defy comprehension.

Unbelievable.

Seems like the more things change the more they stay the same - Was Russian going  into Ukraine with whatever the Russian equivalent of Einsatzgruppen units  to "de-nazify"  the Ukrainian Country side ?

Edited April 3, 2022 by keas66

[akd]

You can do it little guy. Just…keep…going…

[CAZmaj]

10 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Spot on. This cancer is too deeply rooted in their society. I don´t think there will ever be a turnaround for them anymore except when the majority of their people wants it, which seems unlikely to me in the nearer future. Until then only complete isolation and turning them into a 2nd North Korea can keep them at bay.

+ 1

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I tidied up my post while you were typing this, but yeah... in theory it is possible to snipe with dumb rounds against stationary targets. 

That is very much  NOT my experience in CMBS as UKR 

Edited April 3, 2022 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Lets see how that turns out.

 

 

Hmm.  Not to get all political but... why pick on the Democrats when......

Quote

Lawmakers in both parties voted near-unanimously in favor of the resolution, 426-3. The only votes in opposition were from three Republicans: Reps. Paul Gosar (Ariz.), Thomas Massie (Ky.) and Matt Rosendale (Mont.).

Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) said it was “unreal” that three fellow Republicans voted against the resolution. 

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/596601-house-passes-resolution-backing-ukraine/

Cripes, this was a NON BINDING resolution for Pete's sake.

And this guy, again:

Quote

The idiosyncratic GOP senator is undermining his own party’s message by single-handedly delaying a revocation of normal trade relations with Russia, thereby slowing efforts to further incapacitate Russia’s economy. Paul is refusing to allow a quick vote on the bill absent a deal to narrow presidential power to enact sanctions — an ask that leaders in both parties have spurned.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/29/rand-paul-senate-gop-ukraine-russia-00021124

So again, I don't get why the guy you cited singled out Biden and the Dems when so far the voting record, not to mention the talk before the war started, doesn't really indicate a problem with Dem support for arming Ukraine.

That said, all NATO countries have been skittish about sending too much big stuff over.  Now it seems they collectively have agreed to up the ante against Russia's war.  Bigger stuff is now on the table.  If recent history is a guide on this, the US is taking the lead in directing it.

Steve

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

I wonder if this is real/true

 

If its true its directly related to the UKR strikes (that we know of). It could also be a knee-jerk reaction to put some margin in place in case of future strikes, but still, UKR is gaining further operational initiative by having Russia react to UKR's actions.

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yikes, 1977 is not relevant.  FDC has come a very long way since then.  And the sorts of errors that require adjustment are basically FDC related.

The traditional problems with initial accuracy have largely been solved by technology.  Traditionally knowing exactly where the gun is in relationship to the target was very difficult to determine.  Being off by even a little bit could introduce significant error.  GPS eliminates that problem, both for the gun crew and for the spotter. 

The next problem is correctly taking all the variables into account to leverage the targeting data.  Now a days there is an app for that   The data that can be sampled at the local level to account for accuracy affecting variables is pretty inexpensive these days.  Heck, you can get most of this stuff on Amazon for a few hundred bucks.  Our 1977 counterparts didn't have this sort of stuff therefore the initial accuracy would suffer with whatever the margin of error was for the technology of the day.

The last part of the equation is the practicality of getting all of this to work with enough time to be effective.  Drones roaming around looking for stuff to squash can find and track targets in realtime so that when the tubes are ready to fire they can do a last minute correction for the target's location if necessary.  And do it nearly instantly thanks to all the whizzbang stuff.  Back in 1977 it would take precious minutes by which time the enemy might have moved out of the optimal kill zone.

Soooo... gunner knows exactly where he is.  Gunner knows exactly where the target is.  The variables that matter are taken into account by fancy computer stuff with (ideally) local sensors providing critical atmospheric data. If the target moves he'll get updated data that can then be fed into the system and have a targeting solution in almost no time.  When the lanyard is pulled it should go right on target first round.

Steve

P.S.  note that I am not a professional cannon cocker, I only play one on TV.  However, my comments above do seem to be a fair representation.  Happy to be corrected if I'm off.

@TheForwardObserver

[LongLeftFlank]

11 hours ago, BFCElvis said:

For future reference....

1. Sorry. My bad.

(my wife simply rolled her eyes)

[/Quietly moves on]

2. For avoidance of doubt, the Russian invaders must (a) leave (b) surrender or (c) be killed. All of them. Ukrainians hardly need my permission to hate them and the nation that sent them all they like.

 

BUT

3.  Just to be clear, *these* are the only 'Russians' whose welfare I have ever worried about in this matter....

(2016 data)

And @BFCElvis, I would argue that these 'Russians' Matter Very Deeply in terms of Troop Movements and war strategy, as well as ensuring there is no replay of this war later. 

Hypothesis:  UA leg infantry hunter-killer detachments must draw on the active support of the populace to be able to prosecute an offensive using the same 'flashmob' tactics that have worked for them to date. Especially out in the steppelands, away from the forests. If they have to create their own roadbound LOCs to sustain them, they risk becoming vulnerable in turn to RA drone strikes.

4.  The UA is now reentering oblasts -- which it *must* liberate to stop Putin claiming a 'win' -- where live Ukrainian citizens who are mainly Russian speaking or of Russian (or other FSU) origin. They came, or were sent, at various times. This land is the only home they know.

As a group, they feel no special allegiance to Moscow rule. At least not unless they feel 'othered' or threatened.  And frankly, there have been problems in the past, fed by Not Very Fine People on both sides:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/04/25/ukraine-passes-law-against-russian-language-official-settings/

This is a very fundamental military problem -- I would say it should be at the very top of the list -- as well as a humanitarian and economic one. 

I might even propose UA should stand up a 'Vlassov' engineer battalion of Russian defectors, tasked not with heavy combat duties but with cleanup, repair and aid distribution. Paid like UA troops and given Ukraine citizenship if they like upon their honourable discharge.

5.  Because, short of a Russian victory or an escalation to WMD, no outcome could be *worse* for Ukraine than certain... dirtbags seizing their chance to do ethnic cleansing, using many of the same rationalizations we've sadly seen on display here. Which beliefs btw, frankly long predate this war.

That is quite entirely all. Happy to take a holiday anytime, Elvis, although I am honestly not trying to stir any pots. This is a fundamental matter of war aims, strategy and above all, securing the future of Ukraine.

Edited April 3, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[BeondTheGrave]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That said, all NATO countries have been skittish about sending too much big stuff over.  Now it seems they collectively have agreed to up the ante against Russia's war.  Bigger stuff is now on the table.  If recent history is a guide on this, the US is taking the lead in directing it.

Steve

I would be interested to know why the US and NATO have decided to push harder for this. If I had to guess, Eastern NATO has been on board with 'big stuff' shipments much earlier on. RE: here the MiG deal. Lots of people panned the US's flatfooted response there, but contextually the US and UK have been right with Eastern Europe in pushing for heavier arms shipments. To me the limits have been what Western Europe is willing to send (theyre the truly skittish of the group) and what Russia will accept without retaliating. So whats changed now? Is it the situation in Ukraine? If so do we read this as a move to reinforce success OR to stave off potential failure? Perhaps theyre seeing things on the ground we cannot. But all international affairs have at their heart a component of domestic signaling. Such as the UK and BoJo. Whats changing now within NATO that is opening the door to more aid?

As always the saying is true: Victory has a thousand fathers. Defeat is an orphan. 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, akd said:

BMP-1s from Sweden

As I understand it they are ex-DDR BMP-1s that were upgraded by a Swedish company and are now with Poland.  Germany had to approve their transfer because under NATO rules the original owner has final say on what happens to them. 

Steve

[MikeyD]

Russian practices and Ukrainian practices are not equivalent. Also, its a mighty big coincidence that the Russian speaking territories Russia is 'liberating' just happens to coincide with the location of newly discovered oil and gas deposits.