How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

So, smart folks, what do you think the retreat from Kyiv/Chernihiv means as far as opening opportunities for Ukraine in the south or elsewhere? 

Or are the Russians not retreating far enough to really release much of the UKR northern forces?

I'd love to see UKR make big gains in the south, but not sure how realistic that is.

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So, smart folks, what do you think the retreat from Kyiv/Chernihiv means as far as opening opportunities for Ukraine in the south or elsewhere? 

Or are the Russians not retreating far enough to really release much of the UKR northern forces?

I'd love to see UKR make big gains in the south, but not sure how realistic that is.

I'd suspect it's mostly about securing a victory *somewhere* so intended to reinforce/maintain what's happened in the south in the hope that the north doesn't collapse enough/quickly enough to allow Ukraine to reinforce the drive on Kherson, etc. They know what Ukraine can do on defense, now they are betting it can't repeat the trick on offense.

[danfrodo]

Wrong answer, Billbindc -- not because it's incorrect, it's just not what I wanted to hear .  That's the same thought I had.  Russians get northern forces heads out of the noose, but don't pull out of Ukraine. 

[Haiduk]

Just talented photographer. Trostianets area, Symy oblast

First vehcle is KAMAZ "Typhoon", probably belonged to 96th recon brigade

Edited March 29, 2022 by Haiduk

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

Wrong answer, Billbindc -- not because it's incorrect, it's just not what I wanted to hear .  That's the same thought I had.  Russians get northern forces heads out of the noose, but don't pull out of Ukraine. 

I'm not convinced that Russian forces are getting their heads out of the noose. They are taking a gamble that they can hold on enough in the north that Ukraine cannot significantly reinforce the south. Given how little we know about UA reserves...and I suspect they know less...I'm not sure that it's a smart gamble to take. 

[sburke]

seems to be a lot of this going on.  Dismantling of Russia's foreign intelligence network?

 

The Netherlands is expelling 17 Russian diplomats who were "secretly active" as intelligence officers, the Dutch foreign ministry said on Tuesday. (msn.com)

 

4 European Countries Expel Russian Diplomats—With Some Citing National Security Threats (forbes.com)

Edited March 29, 2022 by sburke

[danfrodo]

Wow, lots of good news today.  Retreats, spies being expelled.  And why have Russian missions & diplomatic staff at all?  they are a pariah country.  Should be absolute bare minimum.  Russia is a dangerous animal which can only change if Putin removed, and of course might not get better even then.

[womble]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

And why have Russian missions & diplomatic staff at all?

Well, you can't turn a spy if they're not available to turn, can you?

 

[danfrodo]

5 hours ago, akd said:

On the topic of prospects for mobilization in Russia:

 

And I forgot to mention this good news.  The young tech experts probably have good information on the war's reality relative to the general population.  And they have the valuable skills that allow them to prosper outside of north korea -- ooops, meant russia, weird I would make that mistake.  This shows how very scared russia is of a brain drain.  Yet another effect of being a pariah state under heavy sanctions with a currency no one wants. 

[Probus]

[Haiduk]

Ukr troops are now in full controll of M-03 road section Kharkiv - Chuhuiv (20 km SE from Kharkiv). But this is twitetr info, not confirmed officially for now

[Kinophile]

Very nice, Probus

[akd]

3 hours ago, akd said:

@sburke

Lt. Col. Igor Zharov, VDV (no unit given):

 

@sburke

Further to above, adds that his position was regimental chief of staff without specifying regiment.  Maybe @Haiduk can extract more from the VK links I can’t access:

 

Edited March 29, 2022 by akd

[womble]

Does "Regimental Chief of Staff" correspond to XO? Or Aide de Camp? Or something else?

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, womble said:

Does "Regimental Chief of Staff" correspond to XO? Or Aide de Camp? Or something else?

Chief of the staff is a main deputy of unit commander (battalion and higher). There is deputy of commander exists, but he has more administrative and training process organization duties.

Chief of the staff is a "brain" of unit. He receives all information from battlefield area, establishes control over subordinated units, analyzes information and gives recommendations to the unit comamnder, on the basis of which the latter assumes decisions 

In Soviet/Russian army chief of the staff had/has own deputy.

In Ukrainian army deputy of chief of the staff (on battalion level) is a chief of combat control group, which consists of several officers.    

Edited March 29, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

An ammunition depot is on fire near Belgorod:

 

[Haiduk]

16 minutes ago, akd said:

 Maybe @Haiduk can extract more from the VK links I can’t access:

 

No additional info

[Battlefront]

6 hours ago, TheVulture said:

Yeah, I'm sure that's why they are doing it, and not because they've frittered away the ability to support those axes in any meaningful way.

Charles

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, akd said:

An ammunition depot is on fire near Belgorod:

 

And you honestly don't know if it is vodka induced idiocy from the Russians, or Ukrainian SOF/intelligence feeling it is great day to make a point.

[womble]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/60907259

The beeb have had some experts look at the video of the "kneecapping" incident. Their conclusion is that it's impossible to say either way whether it's faked, either at the level of the gunshots and their effects, or at the level of the participants. Could be Russians, could be Ukrainians (Loyal or Separatist), could be real gunshots (the expert thinks there's not enough evidence to rule it out) could be "SfX".

[Vet 0369]

On 3/27/2022 at 6:11 PM, akd said:

Oh my god, this is just pitiful:

 

With the last four civilians still alive in the city!

[The_Capt]

So I think it has become apparent that the feel of this war is changing, or at least that is how I am perceiving it.  Way back I mentioned that when looking at any strategic military picture I always ask "what does the options space look like?".   

We have seen from Day 1 the Russian military options steadily go from "I can attack Ukraine anywhere of my time and choosing...fear me!", to "The quick war may be a loss but I will grind you into powder city by city until you beg me to stop...and my Belarusian attack dog is by my side!!", to "I will hold the ground I have taken and pound you from afar", to "I will try and take/hold ground that will give me the thin veneer of a win while trying to fail-slower everywhere else".

While Ukraine has sustained its option space and now it looks like that space is expanding as they decide where to attack. 

The "so what?" is that this war is not about the militaries that are fighting them anymore.  Nor is it really about military strategy or operations.  It is looking more and more like we have entered a "posturing endgame".  So military action is likely to be governed more by appearances than anything of real substance.  The Russians have literally run out of options at this point, they are down to:

- Stay and likely collapse under their own weight and Ukrainian offensive action

- Withdraw a shattered wreck before #1

- Double down where they can and try to pull a "win" out of this turd pile

- Go full crazy and nuke everything.

When I talk about "options" I really am talking about good ones that may lead to victory, everyone always has bad options, lots of them.  The only good option left to the Russians, barring some fully automatic rabbit they still have in the sock drawer, is #3.  They will have to try and maintain credible threat on other fronts but this Pac Man strategy of slowly munching in the Donbas up to some arbitrary "victory line" is starting to look more and more likely.

For Ukraine, they are under competing demands of 1) to stop the suffering and damage because the cleanup is going to just be nuts and 2) an overriding desire to kill more Russians.  Unlike the Russians, Ukrainian forces of all types have all sorts of options on the table.  They can attrit where they want and simply hold elsewhere.  They can try limited offensive and try and line up an operational knockout blow, but that might run afoul of political desire to get this thing over with.

Either way, I am getting the sense over the last week that we have entered an end-game phase of this thing unless the Russians have dug a tunnel to the mole people and made an unholy alliance with the underworld.  Not sure when this will end but it has that "post-culmination feel".  Of course we sat around in Korea for like 2 years at this state.  What we do know:

- Russia has failed in this war to a point that is historic.  We will be studying this for years trying to figure out what happened.

- Russia will declare victory in this thing even if it means they only took a single square foot of Ukrainian real estate.

- Russian power dynamic will be in for a shake up.  No idea if that means Putin is in or out but people will need to take the blame for this and those oligarchs looked like they were choosing sides.  Gonna get messy back in mother-Russia but at least Putin will be busy in his own house...if he can stay out of the ground.

- Ukraine's biggest problem will be falling off the front page of western news media.  The clean-up and reconstruction effort will be massive but I think their odds are good as the west sees their best interest in a strong functioning Ukraine, plus no small amount of guilt at only being able to do so much.

The West is going to lose its mind for awhile yet.  NATO just secured its funding for the next 25 years (hell the Canadian government might actually buy F35s, something they have dragged heels on committing to for two decades.)  We are going to be all skittish but ever so smug in that the global order has been re-established...huzzah.  It will take time but the smell of BS will eventually overtake the most optimistic - we are entering a time where "power is power" and Russia just proved it by destroying half of Ukraine while we sat around and made duck sounds. Even though Russia failed gloriously, it had little to do with our collective global order, liberal diplomacy and visions of a better world.  It was done by Ukrainians with smart ATGMs killing a LOT of Russians, which is a lesson in 21st century reality right there.

And of course China is still in the backfield looking for its moment... 

[BeondTheGrave]

2 hours ago, mosuri said:

Laughed uncontrollably at this! Nice to see that "drone terror" is a thing

Just wait until guys start surrendering to drones. 

[TheVulture]

7 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Just wait until guys start surrendering to drones. 

Wait until 'snatch' đrones become a thing and swoop in in the middle of the night to grab some poor schmuck on sentry duty and carry him back to the enemy camp for interrogation. 

[dan/california]

And of course China is still in the backfield looking for its moment... 

 

Convincing the Chinese that this ISN"T the moment to take Taiwan is priority #1. I am repeating myself, but ANY amount of money and effort to convince the Chinese that Taiwan isn't worth trying will be cheaper that rebuilding the wreckage of more or less everything if the DO try it.  That island literally needs to sink a foot or two with the weight of missiles, drones, and other nastiness waiting to greet a Chinese attack. If you made king for a day I would Put a Marine division on Taiwan permanently. 

The other obvious place for the Chinese to look adventurous is the Russian far east which has just been denuded of troops that it turns out were not very good anyway. It is worth repeating that the population of the Russian far east is tiny, and only maintained by massive subsidies from Moscow. Moscow is goingto short on subsidies for much of anything for the next little while. Maybe Xi will do something out of left field, like offering to BUY a big chunk of it, with an unspoken threat of or else. Just not bailing them out financially is no small threat at this point The Russians sold Alaska after all during a previous bankruptcy.