How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

13 hours ago, sburke said:

LOL a lot of roads with a lot of abandoned Russian tanks.  it all gets so confusing.  I could hear someone giving directions.  Go down the road an make a left at the T80.  If you see a T72 B3 you missed the left and you should turn around.  Unless it's the one with the commander shield in which case you might as well continue on as you've gone too far.

Hmm, what's Ukrainian for: "Waal.... y'caunt get theyah from heeyah" ?

https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/whats-the-best-way/2868135

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

I think as @The_Capt has been pointing out, folks are making assumptions based on their own knowledge base and not allowing for the fact they have an inherent bias and therefore difficulty interpreting events. 

I also suspect it has a lot to do with not knowing enough about tactical combat's impact on operational and strategic levels.  Being able to identify the 300 flavors of Soviet derived tanks means nothing if you don't understand what their limitations on the battlefield are.

1 hour ago, sburke said:

 

What is clear is that the Russian military doesn’t stand a good chance of achieving its initial political aims

That he allows ANY chance for Russia achieving its political aims is surprising.  That went out the window weeks ago.

I smell professional arse covering with statements like that.  Some were burned because they stated unequivocally Russia was going to walk over Ukraine, and said so,

1 hour ago, sburke said:

The idea of an "operational pause" has been discussed ad nauseum here. 

Yup, and also the presumption that Ukraine has suffered proportional losses.  I see exactly the opposite.  Tank counts, for example, show Ukraine AHEAD of where they were at the start of the war.  You can crunch those verified losses any way you want, but you will NEVER come up with that possibility for the Russian side.

1 hour ago, sburke said:

I would agree though the next two weeks are critical.  My expectation of how things will look in two weeks is significantly different.  I'll give him this.  That was written a week ago and doesn't reflect on the reverses Russia has had around Kiev and some of the info that has come out about Russia reserves.

We're already seeing things people talked about a couple of days ago coming into play.  Both from the Russian side as well as Ukrainian.

People who have said that the magical reserves were on the way to crush Ukraine have been wrong for 4+ weeks, so a reasonable person might conclude they don't exist.  Especially when Russia is putting such energy into rounding up random guys walking home from work in Luhansk or Syrian fighters who couldn't find Europe on a map, not to mention Ukraine.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Hmm, what's Ukrainian for: "Waal.... y'caunt get theyah from heeyah" ?

https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/whats-the-best-way/2868135

 

New Englanders don't sound like they came from Minnesota after some form of head injury after living in New Jersey for 15 years, but that was funny anyway

I have fond memories of TV 38.  Lots of Bruins games watched on a wavy little 13" B&W TV.  Ah, the days of UHF... Millennials just don't understand.

Steve

[Fernando]

5 hours ago, BletchleyGeek said:

PS: To my colega @Fernando. Salas-Larrazabal book was first published in 1973, and there is only a second edition from 2006. Looking at the reviews of the 2nd edition, the publisher just reprinted verbatim the 1973 text. Salas-Larrazabal is an interesting character, who was motivated to bring about a "balanced" account of the performance of the Spanish Republic army during the Civil War. I say "balanced" within the contex of the late days of Franco's dictatorships. So when you say "the book dispels" many myths about the Spanish Civil War... I guess that was for someone of my dad's generation (born in 1946), not for someone of my generation, raised and educated under our current Democratic regime.

As for the question of how well has Salas-Larrazabal stood the test of time.... not quite well. One of his tenets - that the Spanish Republic was flooded with heaps of military equipment like Ukraine is now by NATO countries - has been proved false and based on the intelligence assessments of the National Army. Recent research - as I requested, from the last 20 years - such as this one (https://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/38179/) does a very good job of tracking where was the Spanish Republic sourcing critical military equipment (surprise, surprise, via black market and smuggling!), the very expensive and highly publicised purchases in gold of tanks and aircraft from the Soviet Union notwithstanding. Miguel Campos has gone on to writing a book based on his Thesis

https://www.planetadelibros.com/libro-armas-para-la-republica/343864

I don't have the time to go over every other of the 6 or 7 thesis of Salas-Larrazabal introduction.

Discussing the organization of the republican forces during the Spanish civil war does not correspond to this thread nor, in general, to any game in the Combat Mission series. Those who are not interested should not read it because it has nothing to do with what is happening in Ukraine.

I'm afraid you're using the straw man fallacy. I have spoken at all times about the ORGANIZATION of the Republican columns and units, and not about other factors such as the material, for which there are much superior later studies. The myths that Salas dispels are about the organization of the army and the columns, which generally had an important regular component and that most of them, especially the important ones, were commanded by professional soldiers. It is clear that it used official documentation.

Just one example: the Republican column destined for Puerto del Leon in Guadarrama was commanded by Colonel Castillo and made up of 1 battalion from the 1st and 2nd railway engineer regiments under the command of Lieutenant Colonel Moriones, two Civil Guard companies under the command of Major Semprún and commanded by Captains Bardaxi and Rueda, 2 companies of Assault Guards commanded by Captains Fontán and Hueso, a group of machine gun vehicles commanded by Major Gil Tejerizo, and six artillery batteries commanded by Captains Lirón, Alau and Zamarro and Lieutenants Pérez Álvarez, Bedia and Paz, under the command of Lieutenant Colonel Gaspar Morales. According to the official report, "uncontrolled militia forces, whose number is unknown", were part of the column. Not all forces were mobilized instantly. On July 21, when El Puerto del Leon was taken, Castillo had three or four companies of railway engineers,3 or 4 companies of Assault Guards and Civil Guards, and some militias (Modesto commanded an small group). On July 22, Castillo lost Puerto del Leon to nationalist hands and on July 23, a battalion under the command of Ruiz Farrona (two companies of rifles and one of machine guns), a battalion of Regiment 1 under the command of Captain Benito Sánchez, a company of the 2nd and 4th regiments each and additional forces from the railway engineer regiments were sent as reinforcements, and finally Major Gil Tejerizo's machine gun vehicle group arrived. Organized militias also arrived, including the Carabanchel unit "Primero de Mayo." Colonel Castillo died in unclear circumstances and was replaced by Lieutenant Colonel José Puig García. 

This is the kind of information I'm talking about. There were militias, but the regular army and security forces component was important, and the columns, certainly the most important ones, were generally commanded by career officers. Once the war progressed and the army was beign organized and enlarged, many succesful militia commanders rose, eventually commanding divisions, army corps and armies (like Modesto, Líster or Tagüeña).

Edited March 29, 2022 by Fernando

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, Fernando said:

Discussing the organization of the republican forces during the Spanish civil war does not correspond to this thread nor, in general, to any game in the Combat Mission series. Those who are not interested should not read it because it has nothing to do with what is happening in Ukraine.

I'm afraid you're using the straw man fallacy. I have spoken at all times about the ORGANIZATION of the Republican columns and units, and not about other factors such as the material, for which there are much superior later studies. The myths that Salas dispels are about the organization of the army and the columns, which generally had an important military component and that most of them, especially the important ones, were commanded by professional soldiers. It is clear that it uses official documentation.

Just one example: the Republican column destined for Puerto del Leon in Guadarrama was commanded by Colonel Castillo and made up of 1 battalion from the 1st and 2nd railway regiments under the command of Lieutenant Colonel Moriones, two Civil Guard companies under the command of Commander Semprún and commanded by Captains Bardaxi and Rueda, 2 companies of Assault Guards commanded by Captains Fontán and Hueso, a group of machine gun vehicles commanded by Commander Gil Tejerizo, and six artillery batteries commanded by Captains Lirón, Alau and Zamarro and Lieutenants Pérez Álvarez, Bedia and Paz, under the command of Lieutenant Colonel Gaspar Morales. According to the official report, "uncontrolled" militia forces, whose number is unknown", were part of the column. Not all forces were mobilized instantly. On July 21, when El Puerto del Leon was taken, Castillo had three or four companies of railway engineers,3 or 4 companies of Assault Guards and Civil Guards, and some militias (Modesto commanded an small group). On July 22, Castillo lost Puerto del Leon to nationalist hands and on July 23, a battalion under the command of Ruiz Farrona (two companies of rifles and one of machine guns), a battalion of Regiment 1 under the command of Captain Benito Sánchez, a company of the 2nd and 4th regiments and additional forces from the railway engineer regiment were sent as reinforcements, and finally Gil Tejerizo's machine gun vehicle group arrived. Organized militias also arrived, including the Carabanchel unit "Primero de Mayo." Colonel Castillo died in unclear circumstances and was replaced by Lieutenant Colonel José Puig García. This is the kind of information I'm talking about. There were militias but the military component was important, and the columns were generally commanded by career officers.

yeah but did they know the arming distance of an NLAW?

Edited March 29, 2022 by sburke

[Taranis]

A member of the Ukrainian volunteer corps fires a howitzer at a position in the Zaporizhia region, Ukraine, March 28, 2022. STRINGER / REUTERS

* "Howitzer" seems to be a 152 mm towed gun-howitzer M1955 (D-20)

[Taranis]

Did anyone had an idea of the distribution of the Ukrainian T-72 ? Had them delivered piecemeal to fullfil the loss of other tanks or is there fully equipped T-72 units ? I only found that at least one battalion seems fully equipped with T-72AMT but can't find which one ? @akd @Haiduk 

[DesertFox]

This one won the contest so far...

 

 

[DesertFox]

Sorry OT, but LOL!

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

36 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Sorry OT, but LOL!

 

 

On the contrary, I think we have a succinct answer right here to the OP: How Hawt is Ukraine Going To Get? 

Zi nami Angel of Death!

Edited March 29, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Offshoot]

44 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

This one won the contest so far...

 

 

It was probably a drone or mine given the surroundings, but I like to imagine a guy with a RPG in the little yellow shed.

[TheVulture]

Russian column moving out of Kherson west towards the Mikolaiv direction this morning (although it looks like they are going up the T1501 coastal road rather than the direct M14 highway):

 

Edited March 29, 2022 by TheVulture

[DesertFox]

Some thoughts by Timoty Snyder. In case you don´t know him, he´s Historian and Prof. at Yale and among other publications author of "Bloodlands", so we can be confident he knows his stuff.

 

 

[Taranis]

Residents walk past a damaged Russian tank in the town of Trostianets, east of the capital kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, March 28, 2022. A World War II monument is seen in the background. EFREM LUKATSKY / AP

* "Tank" seems to be a 2S19 Msta-S. (I'm not talking of the T-34/85 ). A other one is in the far background (T-72?)

[Haiduk]

8 hours ago, akd said:

Baltic Fleet’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade

155th is Pacific Fleet too. Vladivostok. Fights NW of Kyiv. Last losses spotted near Borodianka town

[Haiduk]

6 hours ago, c3k said:

At the 6-second mark, the monitor has distinct arabesque writing on the bottom. That is puzzling to me.

In first day of war all Skif (export Stugna-P name) parties prepared to export in Arabic countries were moved to Ukrainain army service

[TheVulture]

 

 

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, Taranis said:

Did anyone had an idea of the distribution of the Ukrainian T-72 ? Had them delivered piecemeal to fullfil the loss of other tanks or is there fully equipped T-72 units ? I only found that at least one battalion seems fully equipped with T-72AMT but can't find which one ? @akd @Haiduk 

As I know almost all tank comanies of new-formed in 2015 motorized infantry brigades and some companies in tank battalions of 5xth mech.brigades had T-72. Maybe theese mech.brigades later all have received T-64BV. 

In 2015 T-72B were on armamnet of 72nd mech. brigade but possibly were substituted later on T-64BV/74BV mod.2017

T-72B probably still on armament of 128th mountain assault brigade. 

One of the separate tank battalions (I forgot which exactly) had T-72B or AV

I doubt T-72AMT were produced in enough number to equip whole battalion, most likely a company.

Also T-72B were on armamnet of some Natinal Guard operative brigades. 

Edited March 29, 2022 by Haiduk

[billbindc]

7 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Michael Kofman on Politico

"[...]the Russian military probably only has a couple of weeks left in terms of combat effectiveness left inside Ukraine.

[...]Frankly, the same is true for Ukrainian forces. I can’t guess what their losses are, but they’re not in any better shape."

I dont by that. They cannot be in as bad shape (comparatively) as Russian.

My impression of Ukraine's status:

Morale: HIGH

Equipment: GOOD

Personnel: ABUNDANT

LOCs: SECURE

Ammo: OODLES of it.

Popular Support: ROCK SOLID

MEMES: Hilarious

Oh and they're seven Generals, several entire BTGs up on the RA. And a landing ship. And a bucketload of Helos.

 

Kofman has been wrong in some pretty significant ways so far.

[akd]

On the topic of prospects for mobilization in Russia:

 

[Taranis]

@Haiduk Thanks a lot, very instructive !

Ukrainian soldiers from the 103rd Separate Brigade of the Armed Forces Territorial Defense, during a training exercise, at an undisclosed location near Lviv, western Ukraine, Tuesday, March 29, 2022. NARIMAN EL-MOFTY / AP

 

 

[TheVulture]

Quote

Russia’s deputy defense minister says Moscow has decided to “fundamentally cut back military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernigiv” in order to “increase mutual trust for future negotiations to agree and sign a peace deal with Ukraine.”

Yeah, I'm sure that's why they are doing it, and not because they've frittered away the ability to support those axes in any meaningful way.

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Yeah, I'm sure that's why they are doing it, and not because they've frittered away the ability to support those axes in any meaningful way.

Who said Putin doesn't have a sense of humor?  Even as everything is falling down around him he's still able to make a hilarious joke!

Steve

[DesertFox]

3 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Just a ruse to redeploy to the south and to Donezk. They hope they can extract and shift more forces this way unharmed. Ukraine should wipe them out whenever they get the chance. Only the dead don´t fight another day. 

[Taranis]

yes, it's a tactic to try to keep up appearances