How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[General Jack Ripper]

14 minutes ago, sburke said:

obstinate?  Russian advance has been stopped for all intents.  You do recall Putin was planning on being in Kiev in 3 days right?  Almost everyone including the doomsayers agree to that.  Russia does not have uncontested control of UKR airspace (which is the real barometer, no one ever expected UKR to have air superiority so that is pretty much a red herring), the Russian Navy is cruising back and forth doing nothing and the West is supplying a ton of military hardware with which UKR is defeating the Russian army so please go read the other 265 pages. 

From your post it would seem you think Russia is winning this war.  Maybe I am just reading into it, but that seems to be the crux.  Please correct me if you feel I am mistaking your view. 

1) I don't care what the original plan was, and you should know by now as literally everyone on this forum should know, no plan survives contact with the enemy. As I stated in my post, things will continue until Mr. Putin decides to stop them.

2) I never said Russia has uncontested control of UKR airspace, please read my post again, or just learn to read in general, thanks.

3) I specifically reference the fact the Russian Navy has not been aggressive. What they have NOT done though is turn around head back to home port.

4) I would like to see this evidence of defeat please. I'm sorting through the pages of this thread as fast as I can, but the reddit-tier cringe and literal tweet posting is ruining my vision and giving me a headache, especially having to once again observe videos and tweets of stuff that was disproven, mistaken, or redacted weeks ago.

5) Yes, Russia is still winning. Until they are actually forced to go BACKWARDS they will continue winning. Key word: BACKWARDS. I'll say it again: UNTIL THEY GO BACKWARDS.

It's like you're desperately trying to both insinuate I'm saying something I'm not, and also make points that simply fly in the face of reality. The Russians have hundreds, or thousands of tanks and vehicles, hundreds of planes and helicopters, and thousands of troops in Ukraine. That is not what losing looks like. When Ukraine announces they've retaken Kherson, relieved Mariupol, or some other such thing, then I will be the first to say, "Yup, looks like they're winning."

Until the Russian comes to the table, or announces his intention to talk, then he thinks he's winning. If he thinks he's winning, then he still has a plan. If he still has a plan, then he's not just going to roll over and die.

[BletchleyGeek]

Heavy fighting in Izyum

Russian MOD claims they have taken Izyum, some Ukrainian media outlets claim that Russian force suffered heavy loss and lost their commander. The video above does not clearly show whose vehicles those are. The voices seem Ukrainian though.

 

 

 

[db_zero]

At this point it seems like the best the Russian Army can hope for is inch up a little more to get their 152mm SP guns to where they can use continuous artillery fire to reduce all or most of Kyiv to rubble and if they can inch up far enough put the main supply route under artillery fire and force the incoming supplies to Kyiv to use alternate routes that will add about 4 hours to reach the city.

Im seeing reports of Russian troops scrounging for Ukrainian ammo to shoot them selves in the leg so they don’t have to fight.

Who knows what true but wouldn’t be surprised.

Those 100 Switchblade drones- I was never aware of them. Wonder what they will be used against.

Seems like more generals are being arrested. 

Want to say it’s time to stick a fork in it-the Russians are done, but may just see a long stalemate???

Edited March 17, 2022 by db_zero

[Battlefront.com]

I just heard a first person account of escaping Irpin.  I hate to say it, but I didn't hear anything unexpected of the glorious liberators' behavior.

• a squad came into his house and demanded paperwork
• they didn't like what he had to say
• asked him if he had weapons, and he said he had a shotgun.  He handed it and the shells over
• they said they decided to kill him.  They put in in the kitchen and closed the door
• he heard some discussion on the other side and then a burst of gunfire through the door.  He barely didn't get hit
• he ran outside via the back door with arms raised and pleading for them to not shoot him
• the shooter came out, expressed surprise he wasn't dead, then agreed not to kill him
• they went back into the house and directed him to help find all his electronics, money, and valuables.  They took all of them, of course
• the squad also took all his alcohol and told them they were going to spend the night because they didn't want to be caught out in the open (fear of Ukrainian artillery)
• they got very drunk and the guy feared that one of them would decide to kill him just for fun
• the guy said that the unit had looted all the neighboring houses and killed any large dogs they found
• in the morning he and small group of other civilians were allowed to leave on foot for Kiev
• they made it to Kiev and he was reunited with his parents

This is all standard low morale, low discipline, scared crapless behavior from a military that has no interest in the rules of war.  I'd like to say my hope is these soldiers are brought to justice before some form of warcrimes tribunal/court, but I know that isn't going to happen.  So I think you can all guess what I think the next best thing is.

Can't find a link to the audio at the moment, so this will have to do.  It was on NPR around 4pm EST, which would be the All Things Considered show.

Steve

[BletchleyGeek]

9 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Those 100 Switchblade drones- I was never aware of them. Wonder what they will be used against.

Artillery, SAM and C2/signals vehicles and equipment I think. They are literally man portable mini cruise missiles (the 300 model, not sure about the 600 model).

I wonder about target acquisition: probably the Ukrainian army will be getting a live feed from US remote reconnaissaince and observation assets.

Edited March 17, 2022 by BletchleyGeek

[General Jack Ripper]

2 minutes ago, db_zero said:

At this point the best the Russian Army can hope for is inch up a little more to get their 152mm SP guns to where they can use continuous artillery fire to reduce all or most of Kyiv to rubble

If they resort to such a thing then I will PM sburke and apologize.

That would be literally the worst thing they could do.

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

Heavy fighting in Izyum

Russian MOD claims they have taken Izyum, some Ukrainian media outlets claim that Russian force suffered heavy loss and lost their commander. The video above does not clearly show whose vehicles those are. The voices seem Ukrainian though.

 

 

 

I've posted this video several pages ago. This is near Kamyanka, next after Izium settlement. On the video vehicles of combined BTG of 47th tank division and some training regiment (I forgot a number) 

[BletchleyGeek]

Just now, Haiduk said:

I've posted this video several pages ago. This is near Kamyanka, next after Izium settlement. On the video vehicles of combined BTG of 47th tank division and some training regiment (I forgot a number) 

Thanks @Haiduk, so that was evening Kyiv time?

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

Thanks @Haiduk, so that was evening Kyiv time?

No, that was yesterday night or today's early motning

Edited March 17, 2022 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

And sorry, so has Izium fallen?

and thanks @Battlefront.com gives a good indication of RUS infantry discipline - i.e. ****e. 

Par for the course with Russian Army, naturally.

Edited March 17, 2022 by Kinophile

[Sgt Joch]

2 hours ago, keas66 said:

With regards the opinions of Col Douglas Mac Gregor - The more interesting thing to me is to try and understand why he is apparently supporting the Russians  and is so  against the Ukrainians ? Is it the Azov Connection alone ? 

How does one get from being the brightest military thinker in the US Army according to some - to  working with Trump and appearing on the Tucker Carlson Show .  To me that does not compute .

Its like a Nobel Prize winning Physicist  suddenly starts declaring the world actually is Flat .... I mean  how are you supposed to respond / By believing him  just because he has a Nobel Prize in Physics ?

Just catching up on this thread, but I really have to react to this and am copying @BFCElvis.

This kind of accusation is beyond the pale, col. Douglas Macgegor is a very well respected officer, he has written many articles that have influenced U.S. Army doctrine. Launching personal attacks just because you do not like his politics or agree with his politics is not what we do around here.

 

[kraze]

12 minutes ago, General Jack Ripper said:

1) I don't care what the original plan was, and you should know by now as literally everyone on this forum should know, no plan survives contact with the enemy. As I stated in my post, things will continue until Mr. Putin decides to stop them.

2) I never said Russia has uncontested control of UKR airspace, please read my post again, or just learn to read in general, thanks.

3) I specifically reference the fact the Russian Navy has not been aggressive. What they have NOT done though is turn around head back to home port.

4) I would like to see this evidence of defeat please. I'm sorting through the pages of this thread as fast as I can, but the reddit-tier cringe and literal tweet posting is ruining my vision and giving me a headache, especially having to once again observe videos and tweets of stuff that was disproven, mistaken, or redacted weeks ago.

5) Yes, Russia is still winning. Until they are actually forced to go BACKWARDS they will continue winning. Key word: BACKWARDS. I'll say it again: UNTIL THEY GO BACKWARDS.

It's like you're desperately trying to both insinuate I'm saying something I'm not, and also make points that simply fly in the face of reality. The Russians have hundreds, or thousands of tanks and vehicles, hundreds of planes and helicopters, and thousands of troops in Ukraine. That is not what losing looks like. When Ukraine announces they've retaken Kherson, relieved Mariupol, or some other such thing, then I will be the first to say, "Yup, looks like they're winning."

Until the Russian comes to the table, or announces his intention to talk, then he thinks he's winning. If he thinks he's winning, then he still has a plan. If he still has a plan, then he's not just going to roll over and die.

Again let me ask you the same question: 100% of Afghanistan was controlled by russians for 10 years.

They controlled everything - whole government, every single airbase, every outpost.

So I take it USSR won?

[sburke]

15 minutes ago, General Jack Ripper said:

Until the Russian comes to the table, or announces his intention to talk, then he thinks he's winning. If he thinks he's winning, then he still has a plan. If he still has a plan, then he's not just going to roll over and die.

okay yeah go read the rest of the pages.  but no just because you THINK you have something doesn't mean you have a plan, at least not a good one.  Putin may not roll over and die (though we could wish)  His army though is a whole other matter.  Enough here though.  We apparently have two completely different perspectives on what constitutes winning for either Russia or Ukraine.

[General Jack Ripper]

Just now, kraze said:

Again let me ask you the same question: 100% of Afghanistan was controlled by russians for 10 years.

They controlled everything - whole government, every single airbase, every outpost.

So I take it USSR won?

They did, until they gave up.
As I was saying in my post.
Do I have to go over this again?

[LukeFF]

1 hour ago, General Jack Ripper said:

Did you not see the entire rest of my post, or are you just casting shade because you want to wag your finger at me?

I sure did see the rest of your post, and I still think it's obnoxious that you decided to dredge up something that old just to make some sort of point. 

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, General Jack Ripper said:

1) I don't care what the original plan was, and you should know by now as literally everyone on this forum should know, no plan survives contact with the enemy.

Right, but some plans survive better than others.  The problem is Putin's Plan B is to shell civilians and hope that gets him a peace deal that is fully acceptable to him.  Not going to happen.

9 minutes ago, General Jack Ripper said:

As I stated in my post, things will continue until Mr. Putin decides to stop them.

Apparently you haven't read much of this thread because this has been refuted quite thoroughly.  The war is outside of Putin's hands.  He can only keep fighting for so long before he is either deposed of his forces collapse (which will likely mean being deposed too).

9 minutes ago, General Jack Ripper said:

2) I never said Russia has uncontested control of UKR airspace, please read my post again, or just learn to read in general, thanks.

Says the guy that apparently can't read.

9 minutes ago, General Jack Ripper said:

3) I specifically reference the fact the Russian Navy has not been aggressive. What they have NOT done though is turn around head back to home port.

They are irrelevant to the ground war, so not important.

9 minutes ago, General Jack Ripper said:

4) I would like to see this evidence of defeat please. I'm sorting through the pages of this thread as fast as I can, but the reddit-tier cringe and literal tweet posting is ruining my vision and giving me a headache, especially having to once again observe videos and tweets of stuff that was disproven, mistaken, or redacted weeks ago.

Er, you are reading THIS thread on THIS forum?  Because what you just described isn't at all what is here.  Unless, of course, your reading comprehension is substandard.

9 minutes ago, General Jack Ripper said:

5) Yes, Russia is still winning. Until they are actually forced to go BACKWARDS they will continue winning. Key word: BACKWARDS. I'll say it again: UNTIL THEY GO BACKWARDS.

You have an unusual definition of winning.  Putin launched this war with a long list of strategic objectives.  One of which was to have a largely bloodless conquest within a few days.  He has achieved absolutely NONE OF HIS OBJECTIVES.  All evidence on the ground is that he NEVER WILL.  So by any reasonable definition, he has lost the war he chose to fight.

And hate to break it to you... the frontlines are being pushed back.  Only just starting, but it is happening already.

9 minutes ago, General Jack Ripper said:

It's like you're desperately trying to both insinuate I'm saying something I'm not, and also make points that simply fly in the face of reality.

Says the guy that makes grandiose statements that to many, including me, are completely contrary to the facts.

9 minutes ago, General Jack Ripper said:

The Russians have hundreds, or thousands of tanks and vehicles, hundreds of planes and helicopters, and thousands of troops in Ukraine. That is not what losing looks like. When Ukraine announces they've retaken Kherson, relieved Mariupol, or some other such thing, then I will be the first to say, "Yup, looks like they're winning."

When Nazi Germany surrendered had millions of men under arms, they had thousands of tanks and armored vehicles.  They even still had functional aircraft, including the only operational fleet of jet aircraft.  They even still had some naval forces.

Historians have gone back and looked for when they think Germany lost the war.  Not 1945.  Not 1944.  For many, not even 1943.  Somewhere in 1941 or 1942 is where most informed historians feel Germany lost the war.  When this war is over most informed historians will say Russia lost the war by about Day 3.

9 minutes ago, General Jack Ripper said:

Until the Russian comes to the table, or announces his intention to talk, then he thinks he's winning. If he thinks he's winning, then he still has a plan. If he still has a plan, then he's not just going to roll over and die.

He has no plan.  If you read the discussion here instead of dismissing that you might actually see why.

One thing I do agree with you though.  Putin is not going to roll over and die unless someone shoots him in the head.  Until that happens, it's Hitler in his bunker behavior.

Steve

[General Jack Ripper]

1 minute ago, sburke said:

okay yeah go read the rest of the pages.  but no just because you THINK you have something doesn't mean you have a plan, at least not a good one.  Putin may not roll over and die (though we could wish)  His army though is a whole other matter.  Enough here though.  We apparently have two completely different perspectives on what constitutes winning for either Russia or Ukraine.

Oh I'm sorry, am I not allowed to say what I think?
Geez, where do I think I am, a discussion forum or something?
Like I said, I'm wading through the hundreds of pages of posts as fast as I can, but it's definitely not a shining beacon of knowledge and education.

[kraze]

Just now, General Jack Ripper said:

They did, until they gave up.
As I was saying in my post.
Do I have to go over this again?

So they just got tired or being victorious for 10 years and just decided to fold?

How does that even compute?

[keas66]

1 minute ago, General Jack Ripper said:

Oh I'm sorry, am I not allowed to say what I think?
Geez, where do I think I am, a discussion forum or something?
Like I said, I'm wading through the hundreds of pages of posts as fast as I can, but it's definitely not a shining beacon of knowledge and education.

Boy you are really channeling  your namesake - watch out  you may spill some of your precious fluids if you get too excited .

[sburke]

1 minute ago, General Jack Ripper said:

Oh I'm sorry, am I not allowed to say what I think?

where did I ever say that?

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, General Jack Ripper said:

They did, until they gave up.

And why did they give up?  Because they woke up one day and realized that after 10 years of victory they were defeated overnight?

Again, you seem to have a very bizarre concept of what winning looks like.  Objectively, Russia is getting it's arse handed to it on a platter.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, General Jack Ripper said:

Oh I'm sorry, am I not allowed to say what I think?
Geez, where do I think I am, a discussion forum or something?
Like I said, I'm wading through the hundreds of pages of posts as fast as I can, but it's definitely not a shining beacon of knowledge and education.

Sez the man that comes out swinging with both fists and hasn't even read the contents of the thread he is trashing?

Look, you are borderline troll behavior here.  Calm down, stop swinging at everybody, and stay for discussion.  If you want to play the martyr and claim a holy position on the top of some mythical hill where you are smarter than everybody else... well, you'll earn a vacation.

If I need to spell it out further... your attitude sucks and you're being purposefully disruptive.  Check it or be gone.  Those are your options.

Steve

[Haiduk]

10 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

And sorry, so has Izium fallen?

 

I just read twitter of local citizen, her last post was about hour ago - the town is 50/50 between Ukrainans and Russians. 

[akd]

14 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

Just catching up on this thread, but I really have to react to this and am copying @BFCElvis.

This kind of accusation is beyond the pale, col. Douglas Macgegor is a very well respected officer, he has written many articles that have influenced U.S. Army doctrine. Launching personal attacks just because you do not like his politics or agree with his politics is not what we do around here.

 

Sorry, he is now a political hack of the worst sort in regards to anything to do with Ukraine, whatever he once was.

Quote

2014 Russian annexation of Crimea

In 2014, after Russia annexed Crimea and was engaged in a conflict with Ukraine over its eastern parts, Macgregor appeared on Russian state-owned network RT where he called for the annexation of the Donbas and said residents of the region "are in fact Russians, not Ukrainians, and at the same time, you have Ukrainians in the west and in the north, who are not Russians."^[19][34]

2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Macgregor appeared on three Fox News programs to speak in support of Russia's actions. Russian state television broadcast excerpts of Macgregor's appearances, which included a characterization of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a "puppet," that Russian forces had been "too gentle" in the early days of the invasion and that Russian president Vladimir Putin was being "demonized" by the United States and NATO. Macgregor said he believed Russia should be allowed to seize whatever parts of Ukraine it wanted. After one of his appearances, Macgregor's comments were characterized by veteran Fox News Pentagon correspondent Jennifer Griffin as "appeasement" and that he was being an "apologist" for Putin. After Griffin's remarks, Tucker Carlson — who hosted Macgregor on two successive nights — remarked, "Unlike many of the so-called reporters you see on television, he is not acting secretly as a flack for Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon. No, Doug Macgregor is an honest man." Trey Gowdy, another Fox News host who interviewed Macgregor, said his viewpoint was "stunning and disappointing."^{[35][36][37][38]} U.S. representative Liz Cheney said of Macgregor "This is the Putin wing of the GOP."^[39]

 

Edited March 17, 2022 by akd

[db_zero]

16 minutes ago, General Jack Ripper said:

If they resort to such a thing then I will PM sburke and apologize.

That would be literally the worst thing they could do.

I don’t think Putin cares. He’s already flattened cities in Chechnya, took part in flattening and gassing cities in Syria. Why stop now?

He’s of the mindset that if he can’t win, then he’ll make sure he leaves heaping piles of rubble.

He could also be grasping at straws, thinking if he can put Kyiv under pressure he can negotiate better terms.

Being branded a war criminal doesn’t bother Putin. He’s got bigger things to worry about and the war crimes tribunal is a paper tiger. No enforcement mechanism, headed by members from third world countries.