How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, akd said:

This is nuts:

 

Amazing to be able to see this sort of footage.  Scary how close to a first person shooter this stuff is.

This is a really good example of an "ambush of opportunity".  He was driving around looking for a place to conduct an improvised ambush for enemy that he knows are there and where they are going.

While this attack was obviously successful, it does show the shortcomings of such an ambush.  In a prepared ambush there would have been some guys with either more AT weapons or small arms to take on the dismounts.  That is much more difficult to do on the fly like this ambush.  Not impossible, mind you, just more difficult to pull off without something going seriously wrong.

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I can tell you for sure that no NATO country is worried about a Russian invasion.  Not now, not in the near future, probably not into the far future.  Of all the things that Putin hadn't planned on doing, I think this is the one that has the worst implications for him if he should happen to survive the aftermath.

Steve

I hope to witness the fall of Russia. That would make my life complete. Amen.

[DesertFox]

Just now, Haiduk said:

Russia? Never. Russia now is enemy over century. Any peace agreement with Russia is just a pause between next war.

Yep, I see it the same way.

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Amazing to be able to see this sort of footage.  Scary how close to a first person shooter this stuff is.

This is a really good example of an "ambush of opportunity".  He was driving around looking for a place to conduct an improvised ambush for enemy that he knows are there and where they are going.

While this attack was obviously successful, it does show the shortcomings of such an ambush.  In a prepared ambush there would have been some guys with either more AT weapons or small arms to take on the dismounts.  That is much more difficult to do on the fly like this ambush.  Not impossible, mind you.

Steve

but can you imagine how those guys in the back of that truck feel right now and how happy they will be to be told, yeah here's another truck so get back on the road and head where you were going....

[Kinophile]

TBH kinda ineffectual ambush, plus he put those civies further up the street in serious danger.

At least have a gunner with you. Fairly amateur hour.

[kraze]

1 minute ago, Kinophile said:

TBH kinda ineffectual ambush, plus he put those civies further up the street in serious danger.

At least have a gunner with you. Fairly amateur hour.

Don't worry, spalling's a bitch and half of those guys are dead

[Battlefront.com]

Sorry, coming a bit late to the discussion.

It seems that Russia's negotiations are finally showing evidence they know they've lost the war.  But obviously Putin is still looking to have something to show for this fiasco.  I think Ukraine can definitely get better terms very soon if they keep fighting.

If I were in Zelensky's shoes I would keep the war going if my military commanders were confident of victory.  Russia stole two big chunks of territory and killed at least 14,000 Ukrainians the last time and Putin still came back for more.  This won't end until Russia is in turmoil so badly that it questions ever fighting Ukraine ever again.  It should already be clear, but I think Ukraine needs to press home that point more than it already has.

In any case, for sure The_Capt's point a few pages ago that Zelensky has to weigh a lot of very tough decisions.  In particular the amount of suffering of citizens and infrastructure.  This is the primary reason Ukraine agreed to Minsk 1 and 2, and for the most part Ukraine got what it wanted out of it short term.  But long term... it got this war.

Let's keep in mind that what's being discussed between Russia and Ukraine is a cease fire, as far as I can tell, and not a peace deal.  The two are not necessarily the same thing.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

TBH kinda ineffectual ambush, plus he put those civies further up the street in serious danger.

At least have a gunner with you. Fairly amateur hour.

I disagree.  The intention of this ambush was to dispose of some Russians, further erode their will to fight, and live to fight another day.  All goals accomplished.

Fully wiping out that truck and its occupants would not have amounted to much more than what was already achieved.

Steve

[keas66]

45 minutes ago, sburke said:

this is where I differ with you.  In 5 years Russia will still be incapable of attacking Ukraine.  Ukraine will be stronger, Russia will be weaker.  Ukraine is showing RIGHT NOW a defensive alliance wasn't a requirement.  Chechnya isn't Ukraine.  What Russia may want doesn't really matter.  It is already clear that is way beyond their capability.  In 5 years Russia will still be struggling to keep their economy going.  They will be a bit too busy to worry about Ukraine.

Seriously I think they are done.  To refer back to @The_Captpost earlier.  NATO will have to be pivoting to the threat from China.  Russia is just gonna be a rump state that China buys their natural resources on the cheap and probably pays in Yuan no less.

I'm with Kraze - thinking Russia is a spent force and won't try this again in another 5 / 10 / 15 / 20  years seems to be the kind of thinking that got us into this mess in the first place - "The Soviet Union is Finished !  We can all celebrate victory and start worrying about something else"  . Clearly that was a mistake .

[Probus]

3 hours ago, Sgt Joch said:

lets game out victory from a Ukrainian POV. Hoping that the Russian Army will just collapse is wishful thinking at this point IMHO.

@Sgt Joch You know that a Russian Army collapse would have been unthinkable a month ago.  Now it can be debated rationally, really.  How things change...

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, keas66 said:

I'm with Kraze - thinking Russia is a spent force and won't try this again in another 5 / 10 / 15 / 20  years seems to be the kind of thinking that got us into this mess in the first place - "The Soviet Union is Finished !  We can all celebrate victory and start worrying about something else"  . Clearly that was a mistake .

This is where the West can change the equation and end the cycle of violence.  Potentially, at least.  But it would take some smart leadership and resolve to make it happen.  That's where the theoretical chance at ending this long term runs into a sad track record from the EU in particular.  Still, there is room for hope as few of us thought the EU would do 1/2 of what they have already done and done so quickly.

Steve

[Probus]

3 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Those things are massive. What would be the point of sending them to Ukraine - I am not an expert but I assume such huge AA missiles are meant to shoot down strategic bombers?

I'm not answering that as I can't tell my meters from my feet apparently. 

[The_Capt]

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I can tell you for sure that no NATO country is worried about a Russian invasion.  Not now, not in the near future, probably not into the far future.  Of all the things that Putin hadn't planned on doing, I think this is the one that has the worst implications for him if he should happen to survive the aftermath.

Steve

Not sure I agree with this:

- First, the average citizen is not seeing what we are, a total shambles of a Russian military operation that will ring out across the ages.  They see that Russia attacked it neighbor, blew up a lot of buildings that look like where they live and killed a lot of people that look like them.  The public have short attention spans but once something gets stuck in the collective brain-pan it is very hard to get out.  We are already seeing shifts in public opinion and that drives politicians.

- Second, it is not in any NATO nations military interest.  We need a bad guy, a boogie man in order to create political will to arm us.  We are going to play up the Russians as dangerous and a proven threat that we need to really worry about.  Assessments will get slowly ratcheted up from the obvious sh*tshow we see today, towards "the Russians have learned and teamed up with the Chinese!"  It is no secret that larger deployments to Eastern Europe a la Cold War are on the table.

- Third, no matter how badly the Russians did here...and it is bad...collective non-military deterrence failed.  We threatened sanctions, mean looks and strong language, Russia said "screw it" and went anyway.  That means hard power is back on the table one way or the other.  We have entered into a season of Mars (something most of the MENA already knew) and that is going to change the calculus (already has).  We are already getting sweaty questions on the Arctic and NORAD.

- Fourth, crazy bastards still got the bomb.  No matter how ridiculous Russian performance has been, they are sitting on enough nuclear boom-boom to re-set civilization, so we are likely going to see BMD and its like go nuts.

The only thing that makes this all go away is a total regime change in Russia that puts a moderate centrist in power, all the while embracing open liberal democracy...like by Saturday.  I think the Russian have a better chance of a Ukrainian surrender than that happening, so here we are in crazy town.    

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Probus said:

@Sgt Joch You know that a Russian Army collapse would have been unthinkable a month ago.  Now it can be debated rationally, really.  How things change...

Oh, a total collapse of the Russian Army is absolutely not "wishful thinking".  It is a real possibility.  All the components for it are already there for it to happen.  All of them.  However, if there is a cease fire that all goes away and the Russian Army will stay intact.  Which is why I would keep fighting if I were Ukraine.  The amount of pain Ukraine is now positioned to unleash on Putin's forces is increasing.

It seems Ukraine handled the strategic planning for this war very well.  Ukraine (correctly) assumed that they would lose a lot of terrain very quickly.  Too quickly to withdraw their heavier units, in particular large caliber artillery.  The seem to have planned on hitting them hard as they tried to cross over the Dnepr.  This created a bit of a problem for Ukraine when the Russian offensive stalled out so quickly and far away from their second line of defense.  Their heavy units simply weren't in a position to interdict as they were out of range.

What I think we've seen in the past few days, in particular, is Ukraine moving these assets into place and using them effectively.  Now that the Russians have all but given up advancing the Ukrainians can now bring their forces into the fight more than they have been.  Static lines favor Ukraine.

The evidence is mounting that this is exactly what is happening.

Steve

[akd]

A friend escaped Mariupol yesterday and sent the following photos:

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Not sure I agree with this:

- First, the average citizen is not seeing what we are, a total shambles of a Russian military operation that will ring out across the ages.  They see that Russia attacked it neighbor, blew up a lot of buildings that look like where they live and killed a lot of people that look like them.  The public have short attention spans but once something gets stuck in the collective brain-pan it is very hard to get out.  We are already seeing shifts in public opinion and that drives politicians.

- Second, it is not in any NATO nations military interest.  We need a bad guy, a boogie man in order to create political will to arm us.  We are going to play up the Russians as dangerous and a proven threat that we need to really worry about.  Assessments will get slowly ratcheted up from the obvious sh*tshow we see today, towards "the Russians have learned and teamed up with the Chinese!"  It is no secret that larger deployments to Eastern Europe a la Cold War are on the table.

- Third, no matter how badly the Russians did here...and it is bad...collective non-military deterrence failed.  We threatened sanctions, mean looks and strong language, Russia said "screw it" and went anyway.  That means hard power is back on the table one way or the other.  We have entered into a season of Mars (something most of the MENA already knew) and that is going to change the calculus (already has).  We are already getting sweaty questions on the Arctic and NORAD.

- Fourth, crazy bastards still got the bomb.  No matter how ridiculous Russian performance has been, they are sitting on enough nuclear boom-boom to re-set civilization, so we are likely going to see BMD and its like go nuts.

The only thing that makes this all go away is a total regime change in Russia that puts a moderate centrist in power, all the while embracing open liberal democracy...like by Saturday.  I think the Russian have a better chance of a Ukrainian surrender than that happening, so here we are in crazy town.    

OK, I should rephrase this.  I don't think any NATO country seriously thinks that Russia is going to be taking over terrain any time soon.  The scenarios about Russia taking over the Baltics or Poland or Finland or anyplace can't be taken seriously right now.  The concern that Russia might be stupid enough to try, however, should not be ruled out.  Stupidity is not an absolute value so we don't know yet exactly how stupid Russia might be.

That's the situation now.  What will it be like in 5 years?  Depends on what happens in the next 5 months.  What happens 5+ years?  Depends on what happens in the first 5 years.  Too many unknowns.  But short term?  No, I don't think anybody is quaking in their boots that Russia is a serious threat to them.

Steve

[Vacillator]

4 minutes ago, akd said:

A friend escaped Mariupol yesterday and sent the following photos

Brings home the sad reality, all strength to those Ukrainians who continue...

Edited March 16, 2022 by Vacillator

[BlackMoria]

I am grateful that your friend got out, akd.  A great many didn't.  A sad reality but it is what it is.

[Vic4]

Please forgive this train of thought but, I don’t understand why no one thinks that Putin isn’t simply going to start lobbing tac nukes into Ukraine.

He has been utterly humiliated, his conventional assets have been decimated, and his economy and trade relations have been shattered for at least as long as he remains in power. He has yet to show anything resembling restraint, particularly in regards to any of the “red lines” that the west has drawn for him and he has made it clear that there is no negotiation or concession beyond achieving the “operational goals” of his “special military operation”.

He doesn’t care about civilian lives & their suffering, or existing infrastructure; he only cares about domination of Ukraine and bringing them back into the Russian fold; evidently at any cost. For someone so clearly psychopathic and egomaniacal, why wouldn’t he escalate and use the remaining raw power he has available to him at this point?

So long as he doesn’t directly attack NATO, I don’t believe anything he does in Ukraine (however vile) will get any response beyond what is already being done….

Edited March 16, 2022 by Vic4

[sburke]

26 minutes ago, keas66 said:

I'm with Kraze - thinking Russia is a spent force and won't try this again in another 5 / 10 / 15 / 20  years seems to be the kind of thinking that got us into this mess in the first place - "The Soviet Union is Finished !  We can all celebrate victory and start worrying about something else"  . Clearly that was a mistake .

Yes and no.  With the fall of the Soviet Union I think many of us in the west figured there would be some time where things were pretty chaotic.  it is the nature of the collapse of empires.  I think there may have been a lot of wishful thinking on our part, but it was pretty clear that Russian aggression didn't end with the fall of the USSR.  However it did get significantly weaker allowing folks to make excuses and let down their guard.

What I think many of us .. well okay I learned from this . .  is assuming what your adversary might do based on your own perception of risk versus reward doesn't work.  I don't know what Putin weighed as important in this gamble, but clearly it was something I didn't include.  That immediately translates to possible actions by China.  What Russian managed to accomplish as @The_Captnoted is a whole new perception of our ability to respond with force.  We can't rely on our own judgements of risk versus reward.  I am betting somewhere in the halls of the CCCP someone is saying ' f'n Russians."  For the Russians that means NATO just got a big oomph and whether or not Ukraine joins NATO you'll see a lot more joint exercises, arms deals etc.  Russia/USSR lost that arms race once.  With a GDP smaller than Italy's BEFORE sanctions that isn't a race they have any hope of even qualifying to compete in.

Edited March 16, 2022 by sburke

[Haiduk]

UKR 152 mm howitzers D-20

 

[keas66]

10 minutes ago, Vic4 said:

Please forgive this train of thought but, I don’t understand why no one thinks that Putin isn’t simply going to start lobbing tac nukes into Ukraine. He has been utterly humiliated, his conventional assets have been decimated, and his economy and trade relations have been shattered for at least as long as he remains in power. He has yet to show anything resembling restraint, particularly in regards to any of the “red lines” that the west has drawn for him and he has made it clear that there is no negation or concession beyond achieving the “operational goals” of his “special military operation”. He doesn’t care about civilian lives & their suffering, or existing infrastructure; he only cares about domination of Ukraine and bringing them back into the Russian fold; evidently at any cost. For someone so clearly psychopathic and egomaniacal, why wouldn’t he escalate and use the remaining raw power he has available to him at this point? So long as he doesn’t directly attack NATO, I don’t believe anything he does in Ukraine (however vile) will get any response beyond what is already being done….

Well I imagine like a lot of people - we are all hoping that Putin has not gone completely insane ?

 I think if Putin was to really go bat**** crazy and "restrict"  his use of WMD to just the current Ukrainian Territories ....I really don't  think the West would respond in any meaningful manner beyond what they are doing already . If they did we would be where no one seems to want to go - WW3 .

Edited March 16, 2022 by keas66
spelling

[Vet 0369]

31 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Sorry, coming a bit late to the discussion.

It seems that Russia's negotiations are finally showing evidence they know they've lost the war.  But obviously Putin is still looking to have something to show for this fiasco.  I think Ukraine can definitely get better terms very soon if they keep fighting.

If I were in Zelensky's shoes I would keep the war going if my military commanders were confident of victory.  Russia stole two big chunks of territory and killed at least 14,000 Ukrainians the last time and Putin still came back for more.  This won't end until Russia is in turmoil so badly that it questions ever fighting Ukraine ever again.  It should already be clear, but I think Ukraine needs to press home that point more than it already has.

In any case, for sure The_Capt's point a few pages ago that Zelensky has to weigh a lot of very tough decisions.  In particular the amount of suffering of citizens and infrastructure.  This is the primary reason Ukraine agreed to Minsk 1 and 2, and for the most part Ukraine got what it wanted out of it short term.  But long term... it got this war.

Let's keep in mind that what's being discussed between Russia and Ukraine is a cease fire, as far as I can tell, and not a peace deal.  The two are not necessarily the same thing.

Steve

Well, one major thing we don’t know is what the Ukraine Government is actually thinking about for “conditions for ceasefire.” Russia is regularly putting it’s conditions out for ceasefire, but one doesn’t see anything of the sort from Ukraine. That is a very effective move on the part of Ukraine.

[Vic4]

@keas66Yes exactly, and he will "acquire" Ukraine as per his ultimate intent.

5 minutes ago, keas66 said:

I think if Putin was to really go bat**** crazy and "restrict"  his use of WMD to just the current Ukrainian Territories ....I really don't  think the West would respond in any meaningful manner beyond what they are doing already . If they did we would be where no one seems to want to go - WW3 .

 

Edited March 16, 2022 by Vic4

[Haiduk]

Abandoned T-90A with... hm...