Battlefront.com Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, Kinophile said: Correct me if I'm wrong, but the VDV abandoning their vehicles means 1) no fuel/ammo/food came for them 2) they know/were told none will be coming. The vdv is equivalent in role to say, Delta Force? Am I right? Or the 82 Airborne? so imagine an entire unit of them walking away, no vehicle destruction, Nada. when was the last time US units did that? Korea? VDV is roughly equivalent to US Airborne forces. There's basically Airmobile and Airborne, the former heavier and the latter lighter. They are among the best trained and equipped Russian forces. So yes, the fact that they would walk away from their vehicles without spiking them says a lot. VDV forces have suffered very high losses so far. Lots and lots of failed air assaults add up. Wiped out columns add up. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sequoia Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 29 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: We'll see if this war can finally have the same impact on the Russian people as the Germans faced in the years after WW2. I am hopeful this can happen. Steve I would hope that happens as well, but I no idea of how it could realistically come about. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Sequoia said: I would hope that happens as well, but I no idea of how it could realistically come about. After Putin is gone (and eventually it will happen as he is not immortal) the world could give Russia a choice between de-Nazifying themselves or remaining isolated from the rest of the world. Since Russia is already isolated it is a lot easier to put conditions for lifting sanctions than it is to impose them. Experts who study sanctions say they are more effective at shaping behavior after they are imposed because the people understand how they affect their lives. Threatening sanctions, on the other hand, is harder for people to grasp what they mean. However, the sanctions have to be meaningfully painful to be effective. They are certainly are now! Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Sequoia said: I would hope that happens as well, but I no idea of how it could realistically come about. It took the utter military, political and economic destruction of Germany to "wipe the slate". There was no possibility of a grievance, "lost cause" type come-back. The allies had to literally stomp on the Germans, in person, and stay there for years, for the reset to take hold. That's not going to happen here, with Russia. No one is going to occupy Moscow, except maybe some coup forces. Swapping out one 70 year old Bastard for a less bastardly stupid, middle aged Bastard is really all that can be hoped for. Edited March 15, 2022 by Kinophile 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 (edited) Some brief news from the war: - Kharkiv. Russian attempt to enter in Kharkiv from Pyatykhatky direction was repelled, our troops counter-attacked and threw the enemy away further, than were their initial positions. Russin jet was shot down in Kharkiv oblast. On the video looks like Buk far on the background launched a miisile and hit the plane. - Odesa area. Russian ships approached to Odesa oblast shores with three orders. Landing ships are present too. From the morning Russians periodically shelled the shore with naval guns (made 90 shots) and launched two missiles. There were shelled villages Lebedivka, Tuzly, Bilen'ke, Myrne. Reportedly two wounded. Looks like Russians tried to provoke us to return fire to uncover firing assets. - Reportedly Russians is withdrawing from Mykolaiv area to Kherson. Citizens of Nova Kakhovka tell many Russian vehicles is driving across the town toward Crimea. The reason is unclear. Panic? Rotation? Here their very fast movement on the road Edited March 15, 2022 by Haiduk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, Kinophile said: It took the utter military, political and economic destruction of Germany to "wipe the slate". There was no possibility of a grievance, "lost cause" type come-back. The allies had to literally stomp on the Germans, in person, and stay there for years, for the reset to take hold. Yes, the de-nazification of Germany could only happen because 1) Germany was utterly defeated all the way to Berlin, and 2) Germany was occupied by troops that literally could force locals out to take a look at the camps. Neither of these things are set to happen in the current war. I'm worried that this war might end more like WW1.. an economically devastated and empoverished nation free to brew up new "stab in the back" legends and elect even worse leaders than before. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackMoria Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 The sanctions are really biting, judging from the total bat s**t stuff being spouted on Russian state media. Like, mirror universe. the end of the Alice in Wonderland rabbit hole sort of stuff. https://www.thedailybeast.com/wild-kremlin-tv-hosts-threaten-the-us-with-nuclear-strikes-unless-sanctions-end-and-reparations-are-paid 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 Mariupol. Russian tank shot with main gun at civilian, which stood and didn't move to show he is unarmed... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, sburke said: slightly morbid but I've been trying to keep a running account MG Andrey Kolesnikov, Russia’s 29th Combined Arms Army commander Andrei Sukhovetsky, Deputy Commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, First Deputy Commander Of The 41st Army Major-general Oleg Mitiayev, commander of 150th motor-rifle division Guards Colonel Konstantin Zizevsky commander of the 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment Colonel Yuryi Agarkov, the commander of 33rd motor-rifle regiment (Kamyshyn, Volgograd oblast) of 20th Guard motor-rifle division Colonel Andrey Zakharov, a tank regiment commander Colonel Sergei Porokhnya commander of the 12th separate guards engineering brigade Lieutenant Colonel Denis Glebov, Deputy Commander of the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade Lieutenant Colonel Dmitry Safronov, Commander of the 61st Separate Marine Brigade Lt.colonel Alexei Khasanov, deputy commander of 31st Fighter aviation regiment Guards Major Burlakov Andrei Petrovich, Deputy Chief of Intelligence Staff - Chief of Intelligence Regiment Confirmed recently claimed death of high-ranked officer of 103 missile brigade (Iskander-M), Ulan-Ude, Buriatia, Esatern miliitarty district: the chief of liason, chief of staff deputy mayor Alexandr Fiodorov. So, this can be real, that Russian Iskander unit met with our SOF... sburke, A most useful and insight-producing list, but I think there's more to the story. What hits has the RuAF taken? Pretty sure there's been a clutch of Lt. Colonel rank, such as the Deputy Regimental Commander of the 47th Aviation Regiment. Believe you have one Deputy Commander of an Aviation Regiment, but here's another, POW, not KIA. Am all but dead certain there have been more, but the search engine results are clogged with the 9 aircraft downing and other items unrelated to what we're trying to sort out.Captured Russian pilot: I knew these were people's houses ... https://www.pravda.com.ua › eng › news › 2022 › 03 › 11 › 7330412 "I believe that we have already lost this war," Kryshtop concluded. Background: Maxim Kryshtop is Lieutenant Colonel, Deputy Commander of the 47th Aviation Regiment HF 45117 RF Armed Forces. He flew a Su-34 (fighter-bomber). During the three combat sorties he dropped a total of 20 FAB-500 bombs (each weighing 500 kg). There was also the Lt. Colonel from SOBR (Russian National Guard), Astrakhov Dmitry Mikhailovich.https://nypost.com/2022/03/07/captured-russian-officer-apologizes-to-ukraine-for-genocide/ Regards, John Kettler Edited March 15, 2022 by John Kettler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 Probably Russian-occupied Chornobaivka airfield near Kherson after UKR strike 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grey_Fox Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 (edited) 48 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: VDV forces have suffered very high losses so far. Lots and lots of failed air assaults add up. Wiped out columns add up. How many failed air assaults have there actually been? I'm only aware of the Hostomel airfield on Day 1. The Ukrainians claimed to have shot down some IL-76s full of paratroopers in the early days, yet no wreckage has shown up in the weeks since despite the propaganda value that would have. Edited March 15, 2022 by Grey_Fox 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, John Kettler said: "I believe that we have already lost this war," Kryshtop concluded. Background: Maxim Kryshtop is Lieutenant Colonel, Deputy Commander of the 47th Aviation Regiment HF 45117 RF Armed Forces. There was also the Lt. Colonel from SOBR , Astrakhov Dmitry Mikhailovich. Regards, John Kettler Up until now I've been adding the dead ones, but yeah makes sense to include these guys 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BletchleyGeek Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 19 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Some brief news from the war: Great snippets, all of them very interesting @Haiduk. The perceived redeployment in the south perhaps is best understood in the context of the apparent move of the Black Sea Fleet to menace Odessa. Whether is that just a feint to keep UKR forces pinned down to Odessa, or the long awaited amphibious operation, I guess we will see. If UKR had anything like Iran's anti-ship cruise missiles I don't think we would get to see that naval ballet. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Grey_Fox said: How many failed air assaults have there actually been? I'm only aware of the Hostomel airfield on Day 1. The Ukrainians claimed to have shot down some IL-76s full of paratroopers in the early days, yet no wreckage has shown up in the weeks since despite the propaganda value that would have. I believe the total was 6 and yeah much as I might wish it, there has been no evidence of the IL 76s. There were reports that they were enroute and turned back which would make sense. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BletchleyGeek Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 17 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Mariupol. Russian tank shot with main gun at civilian, which stood and didn't move to show he is unarmed... And that's Tiananmen Square level material (if real, ofc). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maquisard manqué Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 20 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said: Yes, the de-nazification of Germany could only happen because 1) Germany was utterly defeated all the way to Berlin, and 2) Germany was occupied by troops that literally could force locals out to take a look at the camps. Neither of these things are set to happen in the current war. I'm worried that this war might end more like WW1.. an economically devastated and empoverished nation free to brew up new "stab in the back" legends and elect even worse leaders than before. That's a valid concern. If Putin or a similar replacement, er, replaces him - it could mean more of the same. But who is going to beat Russia back that far, much less occupy it? If Nato were drawn in, it could be plausible, but this way... nope. And TBH, Kraze's views (if at all widespread - hello Azov) are not going to make post-war settlement any more fruitful for peace on the Ukrainian side either. Versailles mk2 it could be... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said: Yes, the de-nazification of Germany could only happen because 1) Germany was utterly defeated all the way to Berlin, and 2) Germany was occupied by troops that literally could force locals out to take a look at the camps. Neither of these things are set to happen in the current war. I'm worried that this war might end more like WW1.. an economically devastated and empoverished nation free to brew up new "stab in the back" legends and elect even worse leaders than before. well that could only happen if Russia was able to restore itself as a world power. Problem with that as we are finding out is... they haven't really been a world power for a while. As the Wizard of Oz said - pay no attention to that man behind the curtain. I am more worried that internal upheaval in Russia will end up with a humanitarian crisis that draws others in. but enough of that. Trying to respect Haiduk's request to keep the thread more focused (and apparently failing so far ) Edited March 15, 2022 by sburke 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 A RUSI article on RuAF problems brought up a couple of key matters I'd not seen discussed before as to why it's been so insignificant in the Ukraine invasion this time around. The key points were: 1) The largest formations the Russian have operated in Syria were 4 aircraft, in the form of a pair of two-ship formations; 2) in addition to ridiculously low total annual hours aloft, what training the Russian aircrews get is rudimentary at best, bearing near zero resemblance to the kind of super demanding integrated strike sorties the US and NATO train to execute in all weathers, with stringent delivery windows; 3) the RuAF appears to have nothing remotely like the US and NATO capability to plan, much less execute, even a small fraction of a NATO air campaign, much less the shattering opening of the air campaign in Gulf War 1. Essentially, everything needed for a modern air campaign is lacking across the board. They don't have the highly trained and experienced aircrews, don't have highly trained planning and battle staffs, not to mention experienced leaders, don't have the comms and do have an amicide problem. And on top of all that, it appears the Russians have a major shortage of PGMs for aerial delivery, setting. them back decades as far as weaponry available.https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/russian-air-force-actually-incapable-complex-air-operations Regards, John Kettler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sequoia Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 Well, didn't the Mafia realize eventually they could make more money in Las Vegas if they obeyed the law? Plus it was a lot safer that way. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 Advance of UKR air-assault troops. Location and data unknown 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keas66 Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, sburke said: I believe the total was 6 and yeah much as I might wish it, there has been no evidence of the IL 76s. There were reports that they were enroute and turned back which would make sense. Well until the fighting is over and Ukrainians have freedom to move around the areas the IL-76's may have gone down in ....I figure its better to wait and see rather than totally dismissing such reports . 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said: I guess we will see. If UKR had anything like Iran's anti-ship cruise missiles I don't think we would get to see that naval ballet. I hope our Neptuns survived 24th Feb. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
womble Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Maquisard manqué said: ...who is going to beat Russia back that far, much less occupy it? If Nato were drawn in, it could be plausible... No, not really. Plausible, that is. Which is, inherently the single most unreal root of Russia's "fear" of NATO. Doesn't matter what NATO's intentions are, or might become, the capacity simply doesn't exist to prosecute an offensive war to the heart of Russia, even from the Federation borders as they currently are. And that's without the prospect of a Russia facing an existential threat bringing out the Nukes, be they battlefield or city-buster. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 25 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Probably Russian-occupied Chornobaivka airfield near Kherson after UKR strike Haiduk, What strike, when and with what? Whatever it was, looks like some real damage was done. Appears to be multiple POL type fires. Regards, John Kettler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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