How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Fenris]

17 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So when russian airforce goes hunting for supply lines, do they just shoot up every vehicle they see?  probably make more sense to knock out bridges, but they can't knock out all the bridges.

 

What russian AF? I've started to see vids of UKR Grad's and howitzers in action now.  Evidence they're even less in control perhaps?

I do worry this is going to lead to anything that moves being a target for the russians though and more civilian casualties both directly and due to lack of supply.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Fenris

[Vet 0369]

12 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

I guess this one heard an incoming tractor and decided to play dead...

 

 

Probably trying to take that corner, where the yellow vehicle is, too fast. Look at the hole it’s main gun made! “Haz Mat team to fuel spill immediately!”

[akd]

1 minute ago, Vet 0369 said:

Probably trying to take that corner, where the yellow vehicle is, too fast. Look at the hole it’s main gun made! “Haz Mat team to fuel spill immediately!”

My guess was it came off a transporter doing the same.

[Vet 0369]

1 minute ago, akd said:

My guess was it came off a transporter doing the same.

Yeah, that was my second thought since there’s no sign of a fuel spill. I would have to assume that it had no fuel in it.

[db_zero]

When things go south people tend to resort to what they do best and what’s worked in the past.

Russia failed at a quick shock and awe campaign so looks like they have resorted to what’s worked in the past. They are going to inch forward and blast a path  while doing so. They will try and just steam roller their way forward and pummel whatever stands in their way.

Regarding stopping the western supplies. The Russian Air Force is still seemingly absent. 

Using chemical weapons to assist clearing cities would generate a huge response, but Russia does have the ability to use persistent chemical agents loaded into missiles to interdict the main highways supplies are being transported on. In theory it could be targeted in a sparsely populated area where the roads run to interdict traffic.

During the Cold War days it was assumed Russia viewed chemical warfare as something of a normal tool in the inventory and since then they and client states have resorted to its use.

I don’t know if they have the ability to use scatterable mines on bombs or missiles to interdict supply routes.

Maripol is under siege. Electricity is out. Food and water running out. Looks like Russia will wait and starve people out. 
 

 

 

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by db_zero

[Battlefront.com]

An otherwise good article on the NLAW marred by it's attention grabbing headline that kinda implies the article is totally out of step with reality now (it is not, though):

Quote

The NLAW Missiles The U.K. Rushed To Ukraine May Only Be Useful In Desperate Circumstances

Snip

Unfortunately for Ukraine, modern Russian “non-contact warfare” military doctrine emphasizes destroying enemy forces from long distances with artillery supported by drone surveillance assets, rather than aggressively pushing tanks and infantry forward to engage with direct fire. By this doctrine, most of the destruction of enemy forces is achieved at distances the target simply can’t shoot back at.

Snip

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2022/01/25/the-uk-airmailed-2000-nlaw-missiles-to-ukraine-are-they-useful/?sh=5ebfa24b4170

The point here is the author made the assumption that the Russians would effectively fight according to their own doctrine.  Nope.

Steve

[Markus86]

Twitter is flooded with posts of an supposedly iranian rocket attack with six Iranian "Fateh-110" tactical short-range ballistic missiles on US targets in iraq (erbil). 

Do you think this is connected to the current situation in Ukraine?

Strangely no US news website is covering the topic. I hope I'm not spreading fake news. 

[dan/california]

This is the meme for the entire Russian war in Ukraine. Watch till the end.

[TheVulture]

3 minutes ago, Markus86 said:

Twitter is flooded with posts of an supposedly iranian rocket attack with six Iranian "Fateh-110" tactical short-range ballistic missiles on US targets in iraq (erbil). 

Do you think this is connected to the current situation in Ukraine?

Strangely no US news website is covering the topic. I hope I'm not spreading fake news. 

My first reaction is that I'd be surprised. The Ukraine was has put pressure on US - Saudi relations, and with Iran and the US looking to make progress on the nuclear deal, and Iran getting its oil and gas exports (which can exceed Russia's) out on the market again, this is the perfect time for Iran to be working on rapproachment with the US, not attacking it.

Right now, Israel is more likely to attack Iran than Iran to attack the US, in my estimation.

[DesertFox]

6 minutes ago, Markus86 said:

Twitter is flooded with posts of an supposedly iranian rocket attack with six Iranian "Fateh-110" tactical short-range ballistic missiles on US targets in iraq (erbil). 

Do you think this is connected to the current situation in Ukraine?

Strangely no US news website is covering the topic. I hope I'm not spreading fake news. 

I don´t think it is fake.

 

 

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

As I laid out in my previous post, it makes sense only if you're thinking literally.  The problem is when you put it all together it sounds really silly

"the Russians are still having operational successes because they took a strategically useless village at the cost of 100 men"

Nope, sorry.  A nation can not win a war tactically or operationally unless the tactical or operational results have the potential to be strategic.  Like losing all your battles but winning the war simply because the enemy runs out of soldiers in the process.  Russia is the one running out of stuff so no chance of that happening either.

Russia's only strategic hope now is to bomb the Ukrainians to the negotiating table and get meaningful concessions out of them.  That isn't going to happen.

Steve

I guess to me the French General’s assessment is nonsense as the role of the operational level is to 1) align tactical actions and outcomes “the right battles” to strategic objectives - the campaign design and 2) to enable and “scene set” the tactical level, again in line with strategy in order to create advantage.

To say “the Russians are failing Strategically and Tactically but succeeding Operationally” basically means that you are aligning failures and enabling them at the same time…and call it success.

The example of losing every battle but winning the war is true but that normally means a really switched on operational level to ensure you can keep feeding the fires in the right places to eventually let attrition pressures succeed.

Anyway, I am seeing a complete failure at the Operational level on the Russian side as there is no real alignment or design at play here and we know enablers have been a major issue.  One could argue the military Strategy was not bad, a 5 axis overwhelming assault designed to shock the Ukrainian defence (personally I would have focused on a western cutoff to isolate first) and come at what they think was the UKR Center of Gravity, Kyiv from multiple angles.  Of course the Strategy is useless if on cannot actually do the “overwhelming” part and that is on Operational and Tactical level.

[John Kettler]

What happened when a small charitable effort to help Ukraine went viral.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60700906

Meanwhile... More Javelins and Stingers coming.



Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 13, 2022 by John Kettler

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This is the meme for the entire Russian war in Ukraine. Watch till the end.

Fun video for sure, but not Russian   Soldier who ducks in front of the camera is wearing a Brazilian Army uniform and the vehicle is a VBTP-MR.  So Brazilian, not Russian.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

I guess to me the French General’s assessment is nonsense as the role of the operational level is to 1) align tactical actions and outcomes “the right battles” to strategic objectives - the campaign design and 2) to enable and “scene set” the tactical level, again in line with strategy in order to create advantage.

To say “the Russians are failing Strategically and Tactically but succeeding Operationally” basically means that you are aligning failures and enabling them at the same time…and call it success.

Yup!  This is like saying I'm a good driver but being on the wrong road after forgetting to fill up the car.  If you define good driver as keeping the care between the lines and moving in a forward direction... OK, but so what?

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Anyway, I am seeing a complete failure at the Operational level on the Russian side as there is no real alignment or design at play here and we know enablers have been a major issue.  One could argue the military Strategy was not bad, a 5 axis overwhelming assault designed to shock the Ukrainian defence (personally I would have focused on a western cutoff to isolate first) and come at what they think was the UKR Center of Gravity, Kyiv from multiple angles.  Of course the Strategy is useless if on cannot actually do the “overwhelming” part and that is on Operational and Tactical level.

At some point I'm going to fully write down my analysis of Russia's strategic planning.  If some basic assumptions had panned out their invasion plan would have worked even with all the obvious shortcomings.  The flaws in the strategic planning was a) making horribly flawed assumptions and b) having absolutely no workable Plan B in the event that Plan A failed.

What we're seeing now is not a contingency plan.  It's as if someone in the Kremlin sent a young LT down into the military archives to quickly find something that they could implement.  He came up with a dusty binder with the title "Taking Chechnya, Plan D" and that's what they wound up using.

Steve

[Holien]

If this is true then excellent work 

 

[John Kettler]

[Baneman]

3 hours ago, John Kettler said:

...
While we're on good news, here's some for the rightly feared tractor drivers of Ukraine.

FFS John - that was already posted on  2 March page 97 !

2 hours ago, John Kettler said:

There has been intermittent discussion of disintegrating Russian tires and the causes. Here is a Twitter thread on the matter...
 

And this on 3 March Page 109 !

[sburke]

17 minutes ago, Baneman said:

FFS John - that was already posted on  2 March page 97 !

And this on 3 March Page 109 !

I gave up. Just waiting to see how much AKDs patience outlasts mine

Edited March 13, 2022 by sburke

[sburke]

2 hours ago, Sandokan said:

There's a McMaster interview on France 24 English here.

 

Thanks.  Made me go buy his book.  He should owe you a cut.

[John Kettler]

Baneman,

Just found both of those, and my ability to recall one or two items over 100 pages back is regrettably not very good (the sheer amount of information to be kept on file in my head, coupled with the all too real TBI effects make such record keeping bound to fail). Am glad your memory lets you perform such feats. The first item was intended more as a humor item.

On a separate note, Ukrainian SO made a visit to Irpin. This was where, it turns out, those 4 x BMD-2 and and at least one tank, all in V markings, were videoed in an intersection. Didn't post it because there were dead Russians on the deck of the one in the foreground.
 

Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ

 

@CalibreObscura

· 3h

#Ukraine: "The Craftsman with his tools"- A UA SOF fighter with expended NLAW used to destroy a Russian BMD-4 in Irpin.

Regards,

John. Kettler

[John Kettler]

12 minutes ago, sburke said:

I gave up. Just waiting to see how much AKDs patience outlasts mine

sburke,

How about being grateful your memory is in great shape and that you don't have to deal daily with a grab bag of deficits from a TBI sustained over 7.5 years ago?

Regards,

John Kettler

[dan/california]

The Russians complete lack of secure coms is getting REALLY expensive.

[fireship4]

Just a note about the video you posted John (I think on page 220: https://gvwire.com/2022/03/11/captured-russian-pilot-says-he-was-ordered-to-bomb-civilians-report/), the in person translation seems bad, I recommend anyone who watches it use Youtube's auto translation, which seems pretty good.

[Battlefront.com]

50 minutes ago, Holien said:

If this is true then excellent work 

 

Yeah... going to have to see some evidence of this before I believe it.  But I don't need to see evidence to know that I want to believe it

Seriously though, civilians can be quit crafty.  I had a great uncle that was in the Danish underground in WW2 and he told me a couple of stories.  First was that they took German marching songs, changed the lyrics to profoundly offensive anti-Nazi stuff, then song them in Danish right in front of German troops.  They recognized the tunes and though all was well.  heh.

Another one he told me was right out of Hollywood.  Girls bicycling around with violin cases with Stens in them.  They'd flirt a bit with the German checkpoints and zip... off they went.

Given the creativity I've seen with Ukrainian civilians so far, I think they are going to have a lot of stories to tell their grand children.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The Russians complete lack of secure coms is getting REALLY expensive.

Oh that is big!  Especially because that unit is probably one of the few functional and reliable units left to the Russians.

Steve