How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

damn nice ambush.  Interesting to see the Russian tactical response.  Run like hell!  The suppressive fire they put down was pretty quick but mostly seems to have been blind.  They really didn't know where the shot came from and mostly seemed to miss the area where in fact it was launched from.  Was that two AT rockets.  The first looks like in may have missed. (looking at dirt kicked up to right of the target tank) or was that a top attack with missile continuing flight?

no flank security whatsoever.  Nice.

Looked like NLAW (burst over turret).

[womble]

11 minutes ago, db_zero said:

IMO the Russians are probably going to go the siege route. The gritty and costly nature of urban combat will be too risky. Putin has already authorized the payment of huge sums of rubles for families of soldiers killed or wounded and even tyrants have limits placed on the number of young men they can send to the meat grinder.

Who, though, will be beseiging whom? The Russians are struggling to hold any place their troops actually aren't. Their way of siege requires massive tonnages of HE, or, to "circumvallate" the target built-up area, and reduce it by starvation, they need a tight ring to close off resupply, and that takes supply for the troops and their equipment. And the defenders of the city have systems like Grad that they can use to bleed the beseiging forces in ways that weren't available to the Syrian rebels in Aleppo and elsewhere. Not to mention the general attrition from a furious local population.

So, to make a siege work, the Russians have to defend their own supply lines and defend themselves from a fiercely motivated enemy with the freedom to maneuver on their static positions of siege. Currently, it doesn't look like they're capable of that.

The same applies to holding on to what they've "taken" in the south. For a "chain of firebases" to work, they need to be able to dominate everywhere that can fire on the supply routes that link them. And the Ukrainians have weapons that the VC/NVA and Muj would have salivated over, and can be provided with even more potent weapons if required, by the anti-Russian-aggression alliance. Using thermobarics or other grid-square deleters, on an enemy firebase dominating a ridgeline and the valleys either side, for example, is a legitimate usage in time of war, isn't it? There's no way the Russians can protect their own static positions from UKR ranged assets given the information advantage that the UA has.

[Commanderski]

This was very interesting. Taken from part of the 4th letter: "Not only that, Xi Jing Ping was considering a takeover of Taiwan in autumn – he needs his own small victory to be re-elected for his 3^rd term – there’s a colossal internal fight between the elites. Now after the events in Ukraine, the window of opportunity (to take Taiwan) has been closed. This gives the US an opportunity to blackmail Xi and also negotiate with his rivals on favorable terms."

I highly recommend reading through the FSB letters posted above. The 2nd one is their assessment of Putin. Nothing we don't already know but they kind of confirm what everybody thinks of him.

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, db_zero said:

RE:expired Russian MRE's.  While not a good look, in general packaged food is usually good past its expiration date-at least that's what Ive gathered in food stuff produced in the western world.

Just ask Appa of Kim's convenience.  

[Vanir Ausf B]

4 minutes ago, sburke said:

no flank security whatsoever.  Nice.

The dilemma with these convoys is that if you have serious flank security your convoy moves as fast as the infantry can walk (through trees and mud, no less).

[Battlefront.com]

All the people, including experts, who keep insisting that Russia has a practical option for siege warfare are missing a critical component necessary for it... the ABILITY TO SUSTAIN THE SIEGE.  Russia doesn't have it.  Not now and certainly in weeks or months to come.

Look at all the death and destruction that Ukraine is able to rain on Russians already in Ukraine.  Do you think the Ukrainians will stop attacking?  Of course not. 

Every loss the Russians suffer is a loss they can not easily replace.  Especially equipment.  On the Ukrainian side, this is not the case.  Light infantry with trainloads of AT weapons provided by NATO is all Ukraine needs to beat the Russians.  With nearly 100,000 new light infantry coming into being very soon, Ukrainian forces will OUTNUMBER the Russians.

Ukraine can freely range in Russia's rear areas with the full support of the civilian population.  It doesn't need roads to operate either.  Soon there could be more Ukrainians moving around shooting up the Russian rear than the Russians have manning the frontline!

While all of this is going the Russians will need to keep up their fighting spirit.  Their morale is obviously very low now and there's no way it will get better with static warfare and daily ambushes.

The Russians will also require an amount of logistical support that is vastly greater than what they have going on now.  Any signs of them being able to handle it?  No, none at all.

And lastly... a nation can not maintain a large fighting force if it experiences a financial and structural internal failure at home.  Think Germany 1918.  If the homefront collapses, the war is over.

You guys are probably all sick of me saying this but RUSSIA HAS ALREADY LOST THE WAR.  It is just a matter of time to see how exactly it ends.

Steve

[Homo_Ferricus]

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

damn nice ambush.  Interesting to see the Russian tactical response.  Run like hell!  The suppressive fire they put down was pretty quick but mostly seems to have been blind.  They really didn't know where the shot came from and mostly seemed to miss the area where in fact it was launched from.  Was that two AT rockets.  The first looks like in may have missed. (looking at dirt kicked up to right of the target tank) or was that a top attack with missile continuing flight?

no flank security whatsoever.  Nice.

No flank security I agree with, but I think you're trying way too hard to make the Russians look bad. The units in the killzone recognized what was happening and quickly got out of it, correctly identifying which area is safe and which isn't (except the one dismount that run towards the gas station before turning back). Their return suppressive fire was quick and pretty heavy, and hitting the general vicinity of where the ambusher shot from. The tanks behind the units fleeing the killzone stopped and oriented their front armor towards the threat and fired.

Not American SOF level of sophistication when it comes to IA drills, but not a terrible tactical response. You can pick apart a bunch of details and individual actions, but it wasn't imbecilic.

[akd]

Ammo supplies captured from Russians (including BM15 APFSDS):

 

[db_zero]

23 minutes ago, womble said:

Who, though, will be beseiging whom? The Russians are struggling to hold any place their troops actually aren't. Their way of siege requires massive tonnages of HE, or, to "circumvallate" the target built-up area, and reduce it by starvation, they need a tight ring to close off resupply, and that takes supply for the troops and their equipment. And the defenders of the city have systems like Grad that they can use to bleed the beseiging forces in ways that weren't available to the Syrian rebels in Aleppo and elsewhere. Not to mention the general attrition from a furious local population.

So, to make a siege work, the Russians have to defend their own supply lines and defend themselves from a fiercely motivated enemy with the freedom to maneuver on their static positions of siege. Currently, it doesn't look like they're capable of that.

The same applies to holding on to what they've "taken" in the south. For a "chain of firebases" to work, they need to be able to dominate everywhere that can fire on the supply routes that link them. And the Ukrainians have weapons that the VC/NVA and Muj would have salivated over, and can be provided with even more potent weapons if required, by the anti-Russian-aggression alliance. Using thermobarics or other grid-square deleters, on an enemy firebase dominating a ridgeline and the valleys either side, for example, is a legitimate usage in time of war, isn't it? There's no way the Russians can protect their own static positions from UKR ranged assets given the information advantage that the UA has.

Don't know. I've heard opinions of those who know far more about this sort of stuff and it varies. One thinks the Russians don't have enough combat power left to even surround Kiev. Another has said that while the initial phase was a complete farce you shouldn't make the mistake of the Finnish War or 1941 and make assumptions that the war is over and the Russian's are finished.

The initial assumptions and impressions was the Russians would steam roller Ukraine, that was way off the mark. Now its the Russians will lose. That may be right or it may not be.

Perhaps this just settles into a long drawn out affair were a stalemate takes place and Russia just digs in and continues to sustain long range artillery and missile strikes.

While the assumption is Russia will collapse economically, some say it will become like Iran.

I'd be careful about declaring outright victory before it actually happens. Didn't the US do that shortly after taking over Iraq?

Ask any KC Chiefs fans about declaring victory too early

 

 

Edited March 11, 2022 by db_zero

[TheVulture]

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Bayraktar hit a vehicle of Russian command center, Kyiv oblast

 

The command vehicles look like they're sitting in something like mud patches. Is that camoflage netting  as seen by IR / night vision optics, or something else?

[billbindc]

9 minutes ago, Commanderski said:

This was very interesting. Taken from part of the 4th letter: "Not only that, Xi Jing Ping was considering a takeover of Taiwan in autumn – he needs his own small victory to be re-elected for his 3^rd term – there’s a colossal internal fight between the elites. Now after the events in Ukraine, the window of opportunity (to take Taiwan) has been closed. This gives the US an opportunity to blackmail Xi and also negotiate with his rivals on favorable terms."

I highly recommend reading through the FSB letters posted above. The 2nd one is their assessment of Putin. Nothing we don't already know but they kind of confirm what everybody thinks of him.

Honestly, this was the least convincing part to me. Xi doesn’t need a “small victory to be re-elected”. That’s not how power in China works or reflect Xi’s extremely dominant position in China. Maybe the putative FSB guy is dumb but that bit is a good reason to exercise some caveat emptor.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

The dilemma with these convoys is that if you have serious flank security your convoy moves as fast as the infantry can walk (through trees and mud, no less).

Yup, but then again not doing it and getting ambushed does kinda slow things down too

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

No flank security I agree with, but I think you're trying way too hard to make the Russians look bad. The units in the killzone recognized what was happening and quickly got out of it, correctly identifying which area is safe and which isn't (except the one dismount that run towards the gas station before turning back). Their return suppressive fire was quick and pretty heavy, and hitting the general vicinity of where the ambusher shot from. The tanks behind the units fleeing the killzone stopped and oriented their front armor towards the threat and fired.

Not American SOF level of sophistication when it comes to IA drills, but not a terrible tactical response. You can pick apart a bunch of details and individual actions, but it wasn't imbecilic.

I agree.  I had the same impression of it.  One soldier ran the wrong way, but since he had to dismount on the ambush side he too probably made the right call.

A really good ambush would have had another kill sack on the opposite side of the road.

Steve

[TheVulture]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, but then again not doing it and getting ambushed does kinda slow things down too

Steve

It's the Soviet philosphy: would you rather have 10 convoys get safley through at walking pace, or 15 get through fast and 3 get whacked?

[TheVulture]

Here's a claim, although I have no idea how much evidence there is to back it up ((or whether they are talking about a single event or ongoing attrition over 2 weeks)

Quote

Ukrainian Joint Forces Operation troops have almost completely destroyed battle-tactical group of 102th regiment of 150th Rifle Division near Mariupol

 

 

[Homo_Ferricus]

39 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

Anyone know what kind of tank this was? Seems like there may have been a fire suppression system that saved the crew, as you can see the flames settling and disappearing rather quickly. I thought for sure the carousel was going to blow.

[fireship4]

Great thread.  I thought I would post some of the sources I have been using to stay up to date with the war:

First of all, the Reddit live thread is a good general starting point, and much of the following sources will pop up there every so often.  I have also dipped my toes back into the water of an old community of mine, United Operations, and check into their teamspeak every so often - you always get some choice tidbits when talking directly to people with a good amount of military knowledge (if someone wants an invite I can perhaps make that happen).  I advocate for an audio discussion room for this subject on the battlefront discord if there isn't one already.  People are clearly interested and we have not a few people with insight.

https://www.reddit.com/live/18hnzysb1elcs/

Live Maps:

https://liveuamap.com/

https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#m:tsd;d:today;@32.0,48.8,7z

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#/media/File:2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

Websites:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone

https://www.understandingwar.org/

Twitter (via nitter.com):

https://nitter.net/Osinttechnical

https://nitter.net/christogrozev

https://nitter.net/Militarylandnet

https://nitter.net/Caucasuswar

https://nitter.net/Justin_Br0nk

https://nitter.net/DanLamothe

https://nitter.net/Blue_Sauron

https://nitter.net/billroggio

https://nitter.net/Nrg8000

https://nitter.net/SotisValkan

https://nitter.net/AaronMehta

https://nitter.net/kamilkazani

https://nitter.net/JimmySecUK

https://nitter.net/RALee85

https://nitter.net/polijunkie_aus

https://nitter.net/ELINTNews

https://nitter.net/Eastern_Border

 

Edited March 11, 2022 by fireship4

[Haiduk]

55 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

OKKO gas station on SW outskirt of Zalissia village (Shield of Kyiv campaign place). After this ambush enemy column of 6th GTR will go further to Skybyn village, and there it will come under artillery strike, which you can see on a video day ago. Indeed all this actions took place 8-9th of March. Russians attacked from two directions: from Semipolky-Zalissiya-Skybyn on E95 highway advanced ВТG of 6th GTR and from Ploske - Hoholiv direction advanced  BTG of 239th GTR and units of 228th MRR with support of units of 400th SP-howitzer regiment. All units are from 90th GTD. Russians forced Trubizh river recently and established positions on it western bank on the line Zavorychi-Mokrets-Kulazhyntsi. UKR forces conducted several probes (like on video with KORD police wipe out 2 tanks with RPG-7) and probably hit enemy column with artillery or aviation on Trubizh river approx. on 8th of March. There is knowingly we lost one Mi-24 in airstrike near Kulazhyntsi. Next day enemy launch the offensive on Brovary and it result you could see on the video. Probaby a video of the strike of the column from Hoholiv direction will come soon.

Edited March 11, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

8 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

Anyone know what kind of tank this was?

T-72B

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Apparently the FSB letter previously posted is just one in a series (this could, of course, be someone’s creative writing project, but the recent arrests in the FSB suggest perhaps not):

I will say that the 4th letter gives me some pause that this is authentic.

I'm leery of this only because I don't really see anybody claiming it's legit.  I'd even have a little suspicion if they were released by the SBU, though only a little.  Coming from a supposed Human Rights activist and translated by a race car driver... yeah, I have doubts.

I agree with AKD that Letter #4 is highly suspect.  Either this (and the others) are fiction or the author has a lot of personal opinions that he doesn't mind conflating with professional analysis.  I do not think even a Colonel in the FSB would have his fingers in so many topics.

Still, whoever wrote this is a pretty well informed person or team of people.  There are a lot of things mentioned that are pretty insightful and spot on for any country in this sort of crisis, meaning that even if the specifics are fictional it is likely accurate to some extent or another.  In particular #3 about the economic stuff.  The concern about Russian supply chains is definitely a real thing.

The evaluation of Putin is something I skimmed, but it shows a pretty deep knowledge about Putin (either because the author is legit or because the author/s did some homework).  There's all kinds of details in there that I've seen before and since forgotten about.  The comment about Putin surrounding himself with childhood friends instead of the best/brightest under his command is a very good one that I've not really thought about before other than the usual paranoia implications.

Soooo... for me, I'm treating this stuff as fiction for the time being.  HOWEVER... something is definitely going on within the FSB.  They might be lining up support for a coup.  It's the obvious move so I'd be surprised if it wasn't happening.

Steve

[akd]

13 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

Anyone know what kind of tank this was? Seems like there may have been a fire suppression system that saved the crew, as you can see the flames settling and disappearing rather quickly. I thought for sure the carousel was going to blow.

I see a pretty immediate fire from one of the hatches and only two crew members get out (or at least get out and run away).

Edited March 11, 2022 by akd

[Pelican Pal]

40 minutes ago, sburke said:

They really didn't know where the shot came from and mostly seemed to miss the area where in fact it was launched from. 

Jump to the 50 second mark. The leftmost / closest tank.

The tank fires and the shell lands ~20ish meters above Ukrainian position. Immediately afterward you see back blast and that same tank takes a hit to the hull.

[Haiduk]

Russian Su-34 reportedly crashed in Belarus near Luninets airbase

 

[sburke]

28 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

No flank security I agree with, but I think you're trying way too hard to make the Russians look bad. The units in the killzone recognized what was happening and quickly got out of it, correctly identifying which area is safe and which isn't (except the one dismount that run towards the gas station before turning back). Their return suppressive fire was quick and pretty heavy, and hitting the general vicinity of where the ambusher shot from. The tanks behind the units fleeing the killzone stopped and oriented their front armor towards the threat and fired.

Not American SOF level of sophistication when it comes to IA drills, but not a terrible tactical response. You can pick apart a bunch of details and individual actions, but it wasn't imbecilic.

I don't disagree, though I was being a bit sarcastic.  on the other hand that ambush could have been much much worse.  A few mines on the opposite side for the Russian to run into and/or a couple more AT teams and that could have been a bloodbath.  

So yeah maybe I was being a bit unfair, but I don't have to try all that hard to make the Russians look bad. 

The footage is pretty confusing.  The after pics don't seem to show the same battle unless there is more fighting simply not part of the first image.  The tank turret on the ground does not seem to be from that same vehicle.

[db_zero]

2 hours ago, Sgt Joch said:

well if you read the debate which admittedly was spread out over several pages at the speed this thread is going, it was about what Russia would get if it went forward with the seizure of foreign assets, it is more than empty stores/MacDonald's, but includes substantial financial assets. It won't prevent the economic shocks which are coming, but will partly compensate for the Russian cash which has been seized by US/EU.

Its going to be interesting to see how all the economic stuff plays out. Like everything else there are predictions all over the spectrum. Some say the Russian economy is going to collapse, while other say not so fast-the Russian economy is one geared for war and while sanctions will hurt, the way the Russian economy is structured it won't collapse and they will find ways to adapt to the new reality.

Russia spans 11 time zones and what most in the West sees in what the media can access in the urban areas, but there are vast tracts of rural areas and cites away from the main hubs like Moscow that nobody covers and does anyone really know how they feel?

From what little I could see when asked how they felt about Putin and the war, some were against, but some were firmly behind Putin and the invasion. If Putin has support in the rural areas and they are already relatively poor and surviving on very little will economic sanctions really hurt them?

If indeed the Russian economy is one geared for war, would people work for food and access to the basic necessities by working in state run factories that crank out weapons and ammo?

There are those who are more familiar about Russia who have said the people are conditioned in a different way and the security services large and very powerful.  

I've been wrong about everything regarding this war and looking at how things look now I would believe Russia is going to lose, and their economy is going to collapse.

Edited March 11, 2022 by db_zero