How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

https://www.thebulwark.com/podcast/the-bulwark-podcast/  Excellent hour long interview with retired General Mark Hertling. I wouldn't say his position is wildly different from this threads, but he lays it out chapter and verse, not dumbed down, not sugar coated. For the record he thinks the Ukrainians  can hold. He says response the unconventional weapons is under discussion at the highest level, but wouldn't give more. Worth the hour.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

Every Russian soldier knows that Putin dropped Gas into city centers in Syria and what happened to Grozny. The pilot who pressed release on the 1000kg bomb knew perfectly well what he was hitting. Just like the Pilot who got captured the other day had countless experience hitting hospitals and markets with double strikes in Syria and got a selfie with Assad for his heroic deeds.

Those advancing troops very much see where their Grad and Smerch cluster munition drops and what they did to the local residents. I have seen half a dozen videos of unarmed civilians fleeing in their cars to the west getting gunned down by Russian troops with no warning shots or engine disabling.

For anyone who thinks the average fighting Ivan is a dissident in disguise should join some Russian Telegram channels.

In case anybody thinks I've gone soft in the head... my previous post about the fictional Private Pavel is very different from Major Slaughter, the mercenary pilot who kills for Putin and the glory of Russia.  The pilots using their weapons on civilian targets in Ukraine definitely know what they are doing and have had the education and time on this Earth to figure out it's wrong.  And yet they still do it.  Different standard.

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

Besides that, surrendering has never been easier, I heard you get a lofty $ sum on top and running away at night shouldnt be too hard, I've only seen a singe Soviet era NVG from the Russians so far. If I was a conscript forced into a war against a country I had no quarrel with I'd be gone by the first night, those that stay and continue to operate are complicit.

I'm not surprised to hear that as you've probably had a different upbringing than most of those 18 year old conscripts who have invaded.  Still doesn't excuse them for their behavior, but I do understand why it's different than yours.

Steve

[db_zero]

1 hour ago, Splinty said:

Good point. But I think crossing the WMD line might be that Rubicon. I don't necessarily mean NATO using nukes, but I think that might be the line for direct kinetic involvement.

 

My guess is if any sort of chemical attack in done. US/NATO will protest loudly and perhaps launch a few select cruise missile strikes against Russian targets in the Ukraine.

A no-fly zone would probably be highly unlikely but not completely out of the question, but would require a significant time to get necessary forces in place. It would also likely require going after targets in Belarus and Russia.

I wouldn't be surprised in China steps in and puts pressure on Russia. A general US/NATO-Russian conflict doesn't fit into their plans for domination. I believe Chinas game is the Sun Tzu dictum that the best general wins without fighting.

Speaking of China I'm even less convinced that before they can take Taiwan. Taking Taiwan would be a big ask for even the US, let alone China who has no experience in conducting an coordinated air-sea land amphibious operation.

If what we’re seeing now in the Ukraine is any indication, conducting a coordinated large scale military operation with a high chance of success against a competent opponent that is adequately supplied and willing to fight is only a luxury the west can afford.

It requires a professional force that can and is willing to spend lavishly on things like the NTC, Red Flag, Maple Flag and the numerous other training venues that will hone a force to the necessary level of competence and weed out those who are not fit. This costs money-lots of money.

I read that one of main issues for Russia and the modern Armada tank was the cost. The Russian economy couldn't afford to build them in sufficient numbers.

Then there are the structural issues in Russia and arguably Chinese society than hinder their ability to conduct a modern combined operation on a large scale.

Of course this is all subject to change, but until we get proof of significant changes being made I don't see Taiwan coming under the Chinese flag anytime soon.

Speaking of change I suspect there may be changes to armored forces and doctrine. The prospect of going against a force amply armed with the likes of a Javelin, NLAW and Stingers in large numbers is going to generate a lot of study, thought and push for innovation to counter the new reality.

DARPA and the DoD is likely busy sending out RFPs to defense contractors for possible solutions.

I've seen suggestions that tanks will probably un-manned in the future. I think lasers that shoot down incoming missiles is a possibility.

Drones is also another possible solution. A drone I bought years ago has the ability to lock onto a person or object and follow it. It wouldn't take much to program a drone to lock onto a person carrying a portable missile or the launch signature and then hunt them down.

As I mentioned before I suspect a lot of the shooters have been getting away and surviving to hunt again.

They post a few video clips and before long everyone wants to get in on the action.

If shooters start getting eliminated the equation will change. The Israelis after suffering heavy losses to infantry equipped with ATGMs and RPGs in 73, started mounting lots of machine guns and started spraying in the direction fire was coming from. Even if they didn't eliminate the shooter distracting them was just as effective. They re-learned the value of combined arms and infantry and artillery was no longer neglected.

Last thing of note-modern urban combat. Years ago, back in the days of NATO vs the Warsaw Pact I bought a board game-Cityfight. Never found anyone to play though, but the write up that came with it was interesting.

Over the years many have suggested that combat in urban centers was going to be the trend of the future. The demographics was shifting to urban areas and that's where the centers of power and wealth are concentrated. Being exposed in the open in the day and age of precision weapons was highly risky, but in an urban environment some of the advantages of precision weapons can be negated.

One of the mayors has promised to turn their city into another Stalingrad. Odessa is a fortified city. Kyiv has become a fortified city. I've heard estimates from experts that Kyiv could hold out up to a month, while other say longer. I've even hard one estimate of 9 months.

I'm hoping it doesn't come down to a brutal city fight and some sort of end of the fighting can be found, but it seems like both sides have dug their heels in and it’s a fight to the bitter end and regardless of the outcome, both sides will lose in some way or another.

and just like every other war in history its going to be the non-combatants who will bear the brunt of the suffering.
   

 

[melm]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Once again, I will predict it here and we will see if events prove me right:

1. In the south, Russia will shortly begin digging in along a line Kherson -  Vasilivkya (final stretch of Dnepr river), then northeast across the steppelands to Izyum/Kramatorsk (south of Kharkv). That means not a WW2  style continuous trench line/mine belts, but a chain of firebases and hedgehogs overwatching key junctions and towns and the barren no-mans land in between.

2. They continue the cruel, militarily pointless bombardments of the northern cities and limited probes to keep Ukrainian forces in contact and distracted, but will not continue their deep and costly advances.

3.  For the same reasons of diversion, they will continue ops against Mikolaev.

4. Once they feel they've secured the southern line described above, including securing towns and destroying/dispersing regular UA formations behind their lines, they will propose an immediate 'humanitarian' cease fire, eagerly seconded by the Chinese (and probably India and some African states).

5.  The Ukrainians of course refuse at first, demanding full and complete withdrawal etc. That will be conceded in the north but not in the south. The Chinese and their 'nonaligned' bloc, again, lean hard on Zelensky to accept a 'temporary' stop line, dangling generous offers of billions in  reconstruction aid (to be built by Chinese firms, natch).

6.  The Ukrainians again refuse with indignation, but once they get a bloody nose or two and realize UA's offensive capability isn't in fact sufficient to eject the RA from the south, absent Western intervention, they grudgingly acquiesce to a cease fire that includes full and immediate RA withdrawal from the entire area Kiev-Kharkiv.

7.  Dig dig dig, both sides. Long drawn out talks about the occupied southern zone and 'reparations' provide the likes of Macron and the Germans ample opportunity to posture and virtue signal, but go nowhere in substance. 

And in 2023, a  Chinese monitored "referendum" in those oblasts indicates -- surprise! -- a solid majority prefers 'independence' a la Luhansk, Donetsk.

Anger, grief, rage against 'betrayal' on the Ukrainian side but the bourgeois West has frankly lost interest. War is over, good job Ukes, but don't start it up again. And sorry no, you can't be in NATO cuz nuclear war.

8.  In spite of a terrible period of economic disruption (with brutal repression, brain drain etc.), Western sanctions are gradually evaded with the active connivance of China, Iran, Turkey and any number of other double dealers (Greece, Hungary.... Italy?) smelling money.  Russia is a resource economy and we're in an up cycle for demand.

9.  Putin spins all this as a victory at home, claiming that the vital Crimea 'land bridge' and the rest of 'Russian majority' Donbas is all he ever wanted all along. Russians who suspect differently keep their mouths shut; most ordinary folks just choose to believe it and tune out Western 'propaganda'.

10.  In the respite, RA absorbs the many bitter lessons learned and overhauls its forces, equipment and doctrine, with a more defensive mission given that it now has a furious enemy state on its borders.  Recall too, Russia still has 3x Ukraine's population (+ Belarus).

TL:DR, I don't think the UA has the wherewithal, even with full mobilization, to eject the RA from any territory of limited size it puts a serious effort into holding.

My prediction. It gives me no joy, Ukrainian friends, but I haven't seen evidence yet that I am wrong.

Very probable except 5 and 7. I doubt Chinese government will urge Zelenskyy to accept Russian terms. The most probable stance is asking both sides(perhaps all sides that are interested in the crisis) to 'talk'. An useless stance to improve the situation but I bet China will keep such stance. 

And it's highly improbable that China will involve in the separatists' referendum because it has its own separatists'  problem too. That's why it keeps claiming that China supports the territory integrity of Ukraine.

The war actually is undermining China's economic interest as China is Ukraine's largest trading partner. However, China won't condemn Russian invasion as long as it needs Russian gas and if Sino-US relationship keeps deteriorating. 

[chuckdyke]

UN and war. Two smaller countries go to war it will be resolved in the UN. A small country goes to war with a bigger country, the conflict won't be resolved in the UN. Two superpowers go to war the UN will disappear. The mistake was to let Russia inherit the Veto from the Soviet Union.

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Geoff-Ludumpress said:

The people who started the coup? And / Or the political failure to ensure the implementation of the 'Minsk peace agreement"?

Ah yes, you mean the Putinocracy, of course. 

Oh wait no, you're just another trolling sock puppet. 

[akd]

 

[Fenris]

Google translate says - "The Navy of the Armed Forces also have something to please you)) Bayraktar works"

Another post of te same says "The alleged work of the Ukrainian UAV Bayraktar on a Russian BMD-2"

 

Edited March 10, 2022 by Fenris

[dan/california]

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasion-day-14-summary/

Best maps I have found. Or to put it another way, the only ones I can read.

[kraze]

6 hours ago, Butschi said:

Admittedly it's hard not to feel disgusted by such statements. Really, I don't mean this to be inflamatory and I admit it's easy to say while sitting in my warm home far away from war. Still, the others are humans, too, even if you have good reasons to hate them.

True, but not everyone is a saint and willingly dies for disobeying orders. Orders to shoot at enemies about which propaganda told them for years that they are all a bunch of Nazis and a puppet of NATO.

Wow, OK I think I'll begin feeling sorry for the serial murderers of my people, who are "just following orders" including the order to ring home and boast to their wives about how they execute people they just robbed.

I guess all those belarussian soldiers who still riot and refuse to enter the war and do warcrimes simply don't know they can just excuse being human filth by claiming that it's all TV's fault.

[Vic4]

5 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Once again, I will predict it here and we will see if events prove me right:

1. In the south, Russia will shortly begin digging in along a line Kherson -  Vasilivkya (final stretch of Dnepr river), then northeast across the steppelands to Izyum/Kramatorsk (south of Kharkv). That means not a WW2  style continuous trench line/mine belts, but a chain of firebases and hedgehogs overwatching key junctions and towns and the barren no-mans land in between.

2. They continue the cruel, militarily pointless bombardments of the northern cities and limited probes to keep Ukrainian forces in contact and distracted, but will not continue their deep and costly advances.

3.  For the same reasons of diversion, they will continue ops against Mikolaev.

4. Once they feel they've secured the southern line described above, including securing towns and destroying/dispersing regular UA formations behind their lines, they will propose an immediate 'humanitarian' cease fire, eagerly seconded by the Chinese (and probably India and some African states).

5.  The Ukrainians of course refuse at first, demanding full and complete withdrawal etc. That will be conceded in the north but not in the south. The Chinese and their 'nonaligned' bloc, again, lean hard on Zelensky to accept a 'temporary' stop line, dangling generous offers of billions in  reconstruction aid (to be built by Chinese firms, natch).

6.  The Ukrainians again refuse with indignation, but once they get a bloody nose or two and realize UA's offensive capability isn't in fact sufficient to eject the RA from the south, absent Western intervention, they grudgingly acquiesce to a cease fire that includes full and immediate RA withdrawal from the entire area Kiev-Kharkiv.

7.  Dig dig dig, both sides. Long drawn out talks about the occupied southern zone and 'reparations' provide the likes of Macron and the Germans ample opportunity to posture and virtue signal, but go nowhere in substance. 

And in 2023, a  Chinese monitored "referendum" in those oblasts indicates -- surprise! -- a solid majority prefers 'independence' a la Luhansk, Donetsk.

Anger, grief, rage against 'betrayal' on the Ukrainian side but the bourgeois West has frankly lost interest. War is over, good job Ukes, but don't start it up again. And sorry no, you can't be in NATO cuz nuclear war.

8.  In spite of a terrible period of economic disruption (with brutal repression, brain drain etc.), Western sanctions are gradually evaded with the active connivance of China, Iran, Turkey and any number of other double dealers (Greece, Hungary.... Italy?) smelling money.  Russia is a resource economy and we're in an up cycle for demand.

9.  Putin spins all this as a victory at home, claiming that the vital Crimea 'land bridge' and the rest of 'Russian majority' Donbas is all he ever wanted all along. Russians who suspect differently keep their mouths shut; most ordinary folks just choose to believe it and tune out Western 'propaganda'.

10.  In the respite, RA absorbs the many bitter lessons learned and overhauls its forces, equipment and doctrine, with a more defensive mission given that it now has a furious enemy state on its borders.  Recall too, Russia still has 3x Ukraine's population (+ Belarus).

TL:DR, I don't think the UA has the wherewithal, even with full mobilization, to eject the RA from any territory of limited size it puts a serious effort into holding.

My prediction. It gives me no joy, Ukrainian friends, but I haven't seen evidence yet that I am wrong.

Attempting to tread very lightly here:

@LongLeftFlank: Another item for your list.

11. A wildcard that I feel is being relatively ignored but is unfortunately entirely plausible is that a “Russo-Sympathetic” American administration could be in the picture in 2025. If Putin is able to drag this out in some fashion for that long (war crimes and sanctions be damned), Ukraine, NATO, and the general sense of unity we currently have could be compromised and altered significantly by a change in US policy.

Edited March 10, 2022 by Vic4

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, kraze said:

Wow, OK I think I'll begin feeling sorry for the serial murderers of my people, who are "just following orders" including the order to ring home and boast to their wives about how they execute people they just robbed.

I guess all those belarussian soldiers who still riot and refuse to enter the war and do warcrimes simply don't know they can just excuse being human filth by claiming that it's all TV's fault.

I think the point here is not to feel sorry for those who are committing crimes (including fighting an illegal war), but to understand why.  The are not all murderers in their hearts even if they are brainwashed or cowards.  The brave Russians are the ones who refuse to be a part of the warcrimes.

Ukrainians are not just dangerous because you are decimating Russia's armed forces.  You also have the potential to decimate the Russian state as it has been for hundreds of years.  Putin is a fascist, so obviously he doesn't want things to change.

Steve

[melm]

6 minutes ago, Vic4 said:

Attempting to tread very lightly here:

@LongLeftFlank: Another item for your list.

11. A wildcard that I feel is being relatively ignored but is unfortunately entirely plausible is that a “Russo-sympathetic” American administration could be in the picture in 2025. If Putin is able to drag this out in some fashion for that long (war crimes and sanctions be damned), Ukraine, NATO, and the general sense of unity we currently have could be disseminated catastrophically. …Democracy is a wonderful thing, but it sure can bite you in the — .

Thoughts on that anyone?

Russo-sympathy administration? No. US may not deeply involved in the conflict, but such administration couldn't happen. Maybe one will be labelled as "Russo-sympathizer" but that's just some political stuff. 

Edited March 10, 2022 by melm

[Vic4]

@melm

Very respectfully disagree. There is a certain individual that has well documented affinity for Putin and a penchant for lucrative, unrequited real estate deals in Moscow and a general distaste for NATO that has been quite a topic in our country recently. //nuff said

[dan/california]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/10/mariupol-bombing-ukraine-before-and-after-satellite-images-map-russian-attack-residential-maternity-childrens-hospital

If you want to angry/depressed about how wrecked Mariupol is, the Guardian has you covered.

[Vergeltungswaffe]

@Vic4 respectfully, you've been drinking way too much Koolaid.

 

[Battlefront.com]

Let's keep the US political stuff out of this thread to the extent it's not directly relevant to what is going on now.  That will get us going down a rabbit hole for sure.

Thanks,

Steve

[Rokossovski]

@Vic4

I don't have a quarrel with your view, and I appreciate your effort to (as you put it) "tread very lightly," but any discussion of partisan U.S. politics is sure to swiftly derail this thread.

I urge everyone to tiptoe way from the topic of "Russo-Sympathy." Don't even respond to this post. Please just drop it.

(Ninja'd by Steve)

Edited March 10, 2022 by Rokossovski

[Vic4]

No disrespect intended. Honestly. Dropped 

 

[Fenris]

This is motion sickness inducing to watch but it does show a number of afv's being taken out.  Google reckons the caption says "Jewelry work of our artillery on enemy tanks in the area of n.p. Bearded woman. Glory to the Nation!"  Whatever that means.

 

 

Edited March 10, 2022 by Fenris

[evilcommie]

15 minutes ago, Fenris said:

This is motion sickness inducing to watch but it does show a number of tanks being taken out.  Google reckons the caption says "Jewelry work of our artillery on enemy tanks in the area of n.p. Bearded woman. Glory to the Nation!"  Whatever that means.

 

 

Looks like both MBT’s got hit multiple times but survived . I guess they weren’t empty ERA blocks this time.  The same cannot be said of the BMP2.

Edited March 10, 2022 by evilcommie

[Battlefront.com]

Wow, that last tank at the 1:50 mark... wow.  Just wow.

A couple of seconds prior to it blowing up you can see it was shooting at something.

Steve

[Offshoot]

I assume jewelry work means precision or delicate work. Borodyanka is possibly the place name

[Probus]

12 minutes ago, Fenris said:

This is motion sickness inducing to watch but it does show a number of afv's being taken out.  Google reckons the caption says "Jewelry work of our artillery on enemy tanks in the area of n.p. Bearded woman. Glory to the Nation!"  Whatever that means.

 

 

Can someone motion stabilize this footage please?

[Battlefront.com]

That would be a neat trick, which I can't do

From what I can see there are two T-72s and a BMP-2 (I think it is a 2) with infantry on the rear deck.  Looks like one T-72 gets hit and survives (white stuff goes everywhere... wonder what that was?), then starts to back up with the BMP.  There's a miss that hits the building off to the right, then a hit on the BMP.  As the withdrawing tank is passing by it the BMP is either hit a second time or has a massive secondary explosion (probably hit, that seems too big).  The other thank, meanwhile, moved forward and down off the road.  It gets hit and explodes in a very dramatic way.  Last bit comes after a jump cut to the footage.  Surviving tank is quite a bit down the road and some wheeled vehicle (Tigr?) is retreating very fast by it.  Looks like some sort of truck is cautiously advancing towards the tank.

Steve