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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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9 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:
Wonder how much of this MIG Hubabaloo has arisen because Russia threatened to shoot down jets during the transfer, were one to occur. Would explain the rapid and inexplicable back peddle by both the US and Germany.

Poland of course is still hoping it can do an even swap of MiGs for F-16s, which to me seems like a hell of a good deal. 

Hmmm... right before flying them over, you'd think the US could jam Russian radar.

Steve

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10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hmmm... right before flying them over, you'd think the US could jam Russian radar.

Steve

And if an S-300 burns through the jamming and a burning MiG smashes in to a cute Polish farm house? Not saying youre wrong, or that there arn't ways to work around it. But if Russia is willing to escalate over the fighter transfer, things could get very unpleasant for NATO very quickly. If the goal is to avoid war between Russia and NATO, even a 1% risk may be too much for some.

I personally think they should do it anyway and let Putin escalate again. But last time I said that people called me a bloodthirsty neocon. 

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I'm thinking perhaps the rallying points Putin would get internally from the transfer-he's already been pushing the NATO is plotting to get Russia theme for years to his people- might outweigh the benefit the of the MiGs. 

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The Russian people went though very hard economic conditions in the 90's when Western financial institutions came in and as part of economic assistance they had to agree to very stringent austerity measures. It was pretty bad, but that was also a generation used to an old Soviet economic system and economic hardship.

Today the Russians became accustomed to western amenities like Apple Pay, Master Card, Visa, Pay Pal and other perks-travel, access to Western education. There is a middle class, but there is also a divide between the urban and rural areas. Remains to be seen how this new generation reacts and adapts to the new economic realities. 

Its been said in the rural areas support for Putin and his actions is still strong, but how accurate and how long that will last is anyone's guess.

 

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11 minutes ago, Sequoia said:

I'm thinking perhaps the rallying points Putin would get internally from the transfer-he's already been pushing the NATO is plotting to get Russia theme for years to his people- might outweigh the benefit the of the MiGs. 

I doubt the people cheering in the comments about dead children being pulled out of the rubble are going to change their minds because a couple of planes were or werent delivered.

If they accept Putin propaganda that a jewish nazi president has been mass murdering russians for 8 years they dont need much convincing proof to whatever Putin serves them on state tv. You either believe that or you don't, there is no middle ground.

Thankfully similar voices have been silent in this thread as of late.

Edited by Kraft
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Only the start of something, but not the sort of something Putin wants to see starting:

Quote

Russian prisoners of war captured after the invasion of Ukraine appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin , saying they would turn against him when they returned. They said this in Kiev during a press conference

https://inforesist-org.translate.goog/voennoplennye-rossiyane-zayavili-chto-posle-vozvrashheniya-vosstanut-protiv-putina/?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

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Russian forces in Ukraine have been ‘hacked’ after abandoning their own secure encrypted phone system, according to investigative journalism organisation Bellingcat.

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-military-being-hacked-after-its-own-soldiers-destroy-3-g-internet-towers-104303881.html

Explains the communications in the clear.

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9 minutes ago, akd said:

 

Heh.  Pretty funny.

Well, I said it way back in the first day or two of the war.  All the hard work that Putin and his buddies did to convince us that the Russian military should be feared has been undone.   The next Russian administration will have to work hard just to get us to stop laughing at them.  Well, when we're not angrily calling for their detention in the Hague that is.

Steve

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1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Writing over the tweet in Ukrainian "Master of the storm" - localized name of "The hurt locker" movie

Several days ago Russian Su-34 was shot down over Chernihiv and fell in the village nearby with all payload, which didn't expolode. These sappers of State Emergency Service pull the fuse from the FAB-500 bomb

The water is for to preventing a sparkles or heating because of metal tension.

 

Brave men, but then Ukraine is not short of those! 💪

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27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russia would not try to send a S-300 into Polish airspace.  They'd wait for them to come over into Ukraine.  The US' ability to jam Russian radar is probably better than we think it is, though I really don't know what the limitations are of the non-kinetic options.  So might not be feasible.

Steve

Why not set a lovely trap for the transfer.  Use UKR pilots to fly the planes over, of course.  Send the new MIGs to some airfields just over the border where they've massively upped the AD defense along predictable intercept routes for any interference.  That would be hilarious

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3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Normal conditions about profanity suspended for this post.  It is a word for word translation of the intercepted call that confirmed the death of Russian MG Gerasimov, the wounding of much of his staff, and the problems they have with their encrypted radio (ERA):

 

Any word on what they hit his headquarters with?

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1 minute ago, DesertFox said:

Well he might have also problems on a seperate level if true:

 

 

This is either wonderful and true, or a very clever lie.  But either way it's gonna get FSB folks scared and non-FSB folks wanting some purges.  Either way, it's making me happy.

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