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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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11 minutes ago, Doc844 said:

I find this whole Mig 29 situation with Poland quite baffling.  Why have they announced their intention to the whole world without seemingly running the idea past the Americans, who have now publicly baulked at the idea of shuttling fighter jets from a Nato base to a war theatre, thus antagonising Putin.  Seems like a major cock up to me ?

Because everybody in the West is so afraid of Russia (what if it attacks NATO now in 2022 and not inevitably in 2025 or whenever) they barely agreed to supply us with weapons (exception being UK, that just said screw it and went all in with NLAW and Stingers) - so this saga with planes looks more like "we don't want to upset Russia any more, but want to pretend like we are doing something about mass civilian murder"

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16 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I really thought this was some kind of conspiracy theory from the anti jab crowd. But makes me wonder:

1. Why from all the places in the world did US had many biological labs in Ukraine. 

2. Why is it so important to not  fall in russian hands. 

 

 

 

1 it isn't a US lab.  It is a UKR lab.  And having a biological research lab is something any country should have.  It is not a bio weapons lab as far as anyone has said.

2. No idea, research concerns and Russian access to pathogens?

The clip just doesn't have any hard info.

Stanford Univ has a Collider I used to drive over every day.  That doesn't make Stanford a Nuclear power. 😜

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17 minutes ago, Doc844 said:

I find this whole Mig 29 situation with Poland quite baffling.  Why have they announced their intention to the whole world without seemingly running the idea past the Americans, who have now publicly baulked at the idea of shuttling fighter jets from a Nato base to a war theatre, thus antagonising Putin.  Seems like a major cock up to me ?

Or the Poles try to escalate the situation. Not sure why they would, but it's possible.

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2 minutes ago, kraze said:

Because everybody in the West is so afraid of Russia (what if it attacks NATO now in 2022 and not inevitably in 2025 or whenever) they barely agreed to supply us with weapons (exception being UK, that just said screw it and went all in with NLAW and Stingers) - so this saga with planes looks more like "we don't want to upset Russia any more, but want to pretend like we are doing something about mass civilian murder"

😏 this is getting kind of old now.  You recall something about Javelins?  $350 million in weapons and supplies delivered in less than a week? Any supplies the US has been giving for a couple years now?  Massive sanctions beyond anything with the possible exception of those against Iraq when it invaded Kuwait?

The West is doing a balancing act.  We are giving as much equipment as we can without providing Putin with any pretext to widen the war which frankly would play well for him at home and give him an out better than having to say the UKR kicked his ass.  We appreciate you'd like us to just go all in and crush the Russian military.  That isn't going to happen.  Poland jumped the gun here and likely made a hash of the plan.

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2 minutes ago, sburke said:

1 it isn't a US lab.  It is a UKR lab.  And having a biological research lab is something any country should have.  It is not a bio weapons lab as far as anyone has said.

2. No idea, research concerns and Russian access to pathogens?

The clip just doesn't have any hard info.

Stanford Univ has a Collider I used to drive over every day.  That doesn't make Stanford a Nuclear power. 

Yes, I answered myself that way too. No hard info but still she admits the existence of these (it was denied in the beginning as false ) and she is worried russians might get them. Plus China is asking questions on them. Still I agree, mostly invaluable material for the conspiracy theorists. 

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7 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Or the Poles try to escalate the situation. Not sure why they would, but it's possible.

Well that's what I alluded to a good few pages ago.  That some countries that are within Nato may be getting slightly nervous ie Poland and the may try to engineer a situation that puts Nato one a  collision course with Russia.  It's all reminiscent of 1945, to fight the russians now or later, problem now is russia has lots of ICBM's.  The question still sits there though, ugly as it is, to fight the russians now or later because if Putin remains in power I do not believe he will stop with Ukraine.

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11 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Or the Poles try to escalate the situation. Not sure why they would, but it's possible.

Russia is not the only one restoring old Empires. The map of eastern Europe is going to undergo a major overhaul. I think they are not going to make any illusions about NATO.

poland.jpg

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4 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Yes, I answered myself that way too. No hard info but still she admits the existence of these (it was denied in the beginning as false ) and she is worried russians might get them. Plus China is asking questions on them. Still I agree, mostly invaluable material for the conspiracy theorists. 

here you go.  it is long, but it pretty much covers everything

Ukraine, US Biolabs, and an Ongoing Russian Disinformation Campaign | Snopes.com

 

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10 minutes ago, sburke said:

😏 this is getting kind of old now.  You recall something about Javelins?  $350 million in weapons and supplies delivered in less than a week? Any supplies the US has been giving for a couple years now?  Massive sanctions beyond anything with the possible exception of those against Iraq when it invaded Kuwait?

The West is doing a balancing act.  We are giving as much equipment as we can without providing Putin with any pretext to widen the war which frankly would play well for him at home and give him an out better than having to say the UKR kicked his ass.  We appreciate you'd like us to just go all in and crush the Russian military.  That isn't going to happen.  Poland jumped the gun here and likely made a hash of the plan.

Got to disagree on this one, at least a little. What is getting old is watching Putin wreck Ukraine with maximum intentional killing of civilians. Putin will wave his magic nuclear stick as long as it works, and he won't stop in Ukraine, or anywhere else, unless we make him.

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36 minutes ago, kraze said:

Because everybody in the West is so afraid of Russia (what if it attacks NATO now in 2022 and not inevitably in 2025 or whenever) they barely agreed to supply us with weapons (exception being UK, that just said screw it and went all in with NLAW and Stingers) - so this saga with planes looks more like "we don't want to upset Russia any more, but want to pretend like we are doing something about mass civilian murder"

You're not doing your country any favors by insulting the West and belittling the impressive sanctions and arms deliveries the West (and not only the UK) has implemented in an amazingly short period of time. A Kremlin troll couldn't do any better. Food for thought.

2022 or 2025, fact is that we have to deal with the biggest nuclear power of the world. That's something to think about carefully.

The corruption and chaos in Ukraine has done as much against it becoming member of EU/NATO, as the caution of the West. Perhaps even more so.

Edited by Aragorn2002
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16 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

You're not doing your country any favors by insulting the West and belittling the impressive sanctions and arms deliveries the West (and not only the UK) has implemented in an amazingly short period of time. 2022 or 2025, fact is that we have to deal with the biggest nuclear power of the world. That's something to think about carefully.

The corruption and chaos in Ukraine has done as much against it becoming member of EU/NATO, as the caution of the West. Perhaps even more so.

@sburke

Oh I completely agree. In fact I fully agree that this is our fault due to trying to be "friends" with Russia and feeding the corrupt and, in all honesty, the West owes us nothing since we have no defense agreements of any kind.

I'm more upset about the West not realizing that a war with Russia is inevitable and it will be much much worse for everybody if Russia is allowed to go without higher army losses in Ukraine.

History shows time and again that when an insane dictator that has fanatical following isn't stopped prematurely - it ends with a huge tragedy.

It's not like Russia stops being nuclear when it invades, say, Lithuania in a few years.

I mean Putin did say his territorial claims extend to everything that wasn't in NATO pre-1997, e.g. whole USSR and its fake "people's republics" aka "Warsaw Pact".

Edited by kraze
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23 minutes ago, kraze said:

@sburke

Oh I completely agree. In fact I fully agree that this is our fault due to trying to be "friends" with Russia and feeding the corrupt and, in all honesty, the West owes us nothing since we have no defense agreements of any kind.

I'm more upset about the West not realizing that a war with Russia is inevitable and it will be much much worse for everybody if Russia is allowed to go without higher army losses in Ukraine.

History shows time and again that when an insane dictator that has fanatical following isn't stopped prematurely - it ends with a huge tragedy.

It's not like Russia stops being nuclear when it invades, say, Lithuania in a few years.

I mean Putin did say his territorial claims extend to everything that wasn't in NATO pre-1997, e.g. whole USSR and its fake "people's republics" aka "Warsaw Pact".

I'm personally very aware that we're heading for a war with Russia. Have been for many years. Bitter fact is that thanks to our opportunistic politicians and our own stupidity we're not prepared for it. We can fight and win, like I said before, but it will cost us much more blood than we'll have to pay in another year or two. In the mean time we will boycot the hell out of Putin and support you guys as much as we possibly can without risking escalation. Not a pretty sight, I know, but for now there's no other way. That doesn't mean the Ukrainian people is standing alone, far from it. NATO/EU has decided it finally had enough of Putin's crimes. Ukraine will find a mighty and useful ally in us. Now and in the future.

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Putin needs a lot more to have a chance to move deeper in Europe imo. I'm sure he is aware of this. The moment he crosses the Poland borders or Baltic states he will suffer catastrophic losses. And if his troops aren't motivated enough to "liberate" Ukraine what makes you think they will be willing to invade NATO countries. I don't see this happening. He will settle with a neutral Ukraine. That's why I'm not a fan of NATO intervention at the moment. 

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1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Javelin hit on BMP

 

 


I would guess it’s a BMP3 or BMD4 due to the way it cooked off.  Likely the 100mm rounds with combustible case. 
I would think fully cased rounds such as 30mm rounds cook off more like fire crackers. 

 

Edited by evilcommie
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What about Migs...

The game is very simple. In private, the US, GB and the rest of NATO are as much in support of strengthening Ukraine as possible. But the planes are a serious matter and the Kremlin will certainly not accept this calmly. So NATO, as an alliance, is afraid to take responsibility for such a decision and gives us, as Poland, the green light to hand over the planes ourselves, as Poland, and not NATO as a whole. And in general we want to hand over the planes, but not as Poland alone with all its consequences, but as the whole of NATO. And yesterday the Polish authorities poker-facedly said check. And the truth came out... NATO officially does not want to take responsibility...

And the Kremlin has just announced that:

Polish offer of jets to Ukraine creates 'potentially dangerous scenario

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