How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[keas66]

5 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So McDonalds shutting down its Russia operations.  Doesn't seem like anything interesting except that is supposedly 62,000 workers!   That's quite a lot of suddenly unemployed folks.  It's hard to see how angry populace could overthrow Putin, but every angry russian brings that unlikely goal a little closer

I had seen the same story but  in that one  McDonald's were going to  carry on paying the employees during the closure . So the only angry Russians  would be those  missing out on their Hamburger and Fries .

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, The Steppenwulf said:

Any aircraft supplied by Nato countries will need all its ID removed before being used by UKR pilots in combat. There 's also the question of what Nato information/communication encryption systems might be fitted in those aircraft that must not fall into the hands of the Russians. I'd suggest that's they have gone to Germany for these checks and modifications first.

The Ukrainians have a host of airbases and non military airfields in the west of the country outside the zone that Russian fighter bombers seem to be operating within. As we know UKR AA systems have been effective in curtailing their areas of operation. What condition those airfield are in though, is a different question but I've not seen any evidence that indicates that all the western airbases were attacked by Kaliber missiles and are now inoperable, unlike those in central Ukraine. 
 
Personally I think 2 squadrons of Mig 29s will seal the Russians fate in this conflict. They have exposed supply columns and artillery batteries as we know. Low hit and run aircraft strafes on these exposed forces, under cover of an umbrella of stingers to protect them from Russia's counter air-to -air, and the stuttering Russian war machine could become a rout.  Unless that is of course, Putin wants to bring other assets into the fight...

I can see some potential tripping points with the MiG-29s being used as ground attack though. How does a Ukraine with a stinger determine that the MiG-29 is not a Russian? Also, in the fighter role, a radar warning receiver will show that the “threat”is an airborne MiG-29. Sure, IFF will show it as a friendly, mistakes are bound to happen in the fog of war.

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So McDonalds shutting down its Russia operations.  Doesn't seem like anything interesting except that is supposedly 62,000 workers!   That's quite a lot of suddenly unemployed folks.  It's hard to see how angry populace could overthrow Putin, but every angry russian brings that unlikely goal a little closer

they are unemployed, but McDonald's is going to continue paying them.  Interesting from a propaganda perspective.  A US corporation cares more about them than Putin?

[akd]

12 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

I can see some potential tripping points with the MiG-29s being used as ground attack though. How does a Ukraine with a stinger determine that the MiG-29 is not a Russian? Also, in the fighter role, a radar warning receiver will show that the “threat”is an airborne MiG-29. Sure, IFF will show it as a friendly, mistakes are bound to happen in the fog of war.

Ukraine is already operating Su-27s and MiG-29s.  Russia operates neither over Ukraine.  Technically this could be even better because the Polish MiG-29s should have IFF systems that can interface with Stinger system.

Edited March 8, 2022 by akd

[chris talpas]

Wonder if there are any appropriate HARM's that could be used or interfaced  with those MiG-29's that could deal with the more problematic SAM batteries?

Not sure if the Ukrainian airforce ever trained for any Wild Weasel tactics to shut down air defenses?

Could be useful to have some tasked in that role.

 

Edited March 8, 2022 by chris talpas
wild weasel sentences

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Potemkin military. That would explain a thing or two...

 

Yeah, this dovetails very nicely with several discussions we had here.

The thing is, Putin has been looting the Russian coffers for years to the tune of about $100B.  What, did he think he was the only one?

Steve

[danfrodo]

8 minutes ago, keas66 said:

I had seen the same story but  in that one  McDonald's were going to  carry on paying the employees during the closure . So the only angry Russians  would be those  missing out on their Hamburger and Fries .

darn.  But maybe you are right.  The real anger will be among the miles long line at every McD drive thru wondering what is the holdup. 

[Vanir Ausf B]

This is awkward.

Quote

Poland has said it will hand over its MiG-29 fighter jets to the US, in a move which appeared to take Washington by surprise and was quickly dismissed by the Pentagon.

The Polish foreign minister, Zbigniew Rau, said his government was “ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MiG-29 jets to the Ramstein airbase and place them at the disposal of the government of the United States of America”.

But the Pentagon appeared to reject the proposal, saying it was not “tenable”.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/08/poland-mig-29-jets-us-ukraine

Edited March 8, 2022 by Vanir Ausf B

[chris talpas]

I personally think NATO should go ahead and give the planes to the Ukraine.  We have already delivered countless anti tank and anti air missiles that have killed hundreds of Russian vehicles and many aircraft.  Yes it is some escalation, but we've already sent so much.  I also find it interesting that the Russian cease fire request came shortly after the Polish announcement.  Coincidence? maybe.

I don't think at this stage we want to suddenly have cold feet.  We've been firm and true to our words of no NATO troops on the ground or in the air over Ukraine.  However we have also provided unprecedented material support.

 

[DesertFox]

Well...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by DesertFox

[Commanderski]

43 minutes ago, sburke said:

A US corporation cares more about them than Putin?

US corporations can't do much about Putin. It cares about it's workers over profits for once. A good move for future advertisements though.

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Commanderski said:

US corporations can't do much about Putin. It cares about it's workers over profits for once. A good move for future advertisements though.

I think he applied to be the hamburglar.  When he didn't get the part it led to a spiraling descent into darkness.

[Battlefront.com]

Anybody know what Russia's 100% domestic aviation fuel production capacity is?  The report that Moscow's airport ran out of fuel got me wondering if there might be a problem with Russia's supply chain now that Shell, BP, and basically the rest of the world isn't interested in fueling their planes to kill Ukrainian children.  One thing that can cut through corporate profit motivations is being tagged as a child killer.

Steve

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

I am hoping that this is something that comes out of this war.  Corruption happens when finances are not transparent and banking regulations are weak.  EU membership for Ukraine has not been held up by any fear of Russia, but by corruption in Ukraine.  The unity Ukrainians have found and the willingness to sacrifice for their nation needs to be harnessed post conflict.  It should become a national effort and a national security concern to resolve this regardless of EU membership or not.  And this goes not only for Ukraine but for all.  Deutsche Bank has a long history of managing Russian funny money that has to stop.  There are states in the US becoming versions of the Cayman Islands.  That has to stop.  London and US real estate as havens for oligarch money - has to stop.  Want to make it difficult for authoritarian leaders - stop the cash flow that enables them or at a minimum make it visible.  This is supposedly the information age.

I honestly doubt that the corruption will ever be stopped. I watched a show last night on a cable History channel that detailed how an Alabama oil tycoon, named Davis, who was the largest donor to FDR’s second term campaign, and had access to sit with FDR in the White House, initially tried, at Goering’s request, to get FDR to keep the U.S. out of the war so he could keep shipping oil to Germany. When that failed, Goering sent him either 2 million or 20 million dollars to throw the election of FDR’s third term. Davis was joined by John L. Lewis, the founder and leader of the CIO labor union. They even went so far as to bribe about 46 delegates to the Electoral College to cast their votes for the Republican Wilky (sp?). It failed, and FDR was re-elected for his third term. The entire motivation was profit.

[billbindc]

Hey John, feel free to delete!

Edited March 9, 2022 by billbindc

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

I honestly doubt that the corruption will ever be stopped.

You can count on that.  Bulgaria and Italy, for example, have had a string of corruption scandals, and there's lots more where that came from.  The point sburke was making is that in order to enter the EU the country must have controls in place to keep the corruption down to a dull roar.  Ukraine is far less corrupt now than it was prior to Maidan kicking out Yanukovych, but on the scale of corruption it's still pretty bad.  Russia, of course, is far worse.

Steve

[billbindc]

Sorry...weird double post. Just an fyi, those Polish MiG's are very likely not going to Ukraine. The thorniest issue is that they'd be flying from a non-combatant NATO country into contested airspace and Defense and the intelligence community clearly think they are escalatory. In addition, it doesn't seem like the most militarily efficient idea to take the Ukrainian air force from down 10 to 1  to only down 8 to 1. There are less destabilizing and far more useful arms transfers that work on Russia's weaknesses instead of Russia's (at least potential) strengths. 

This was a hot potato that nobody wanted. The Poles just tossed it into our lap.

[Seedorf81]

3 hours ago, Panserjeger said:

I´m sure the improved version will give 100% protection:

Patton would not be amused..

[The Steppenwulf]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Anybody know what Russia's 100% domestic aviation fuel production capacity is?  The report that Moscow's airport ran out of fuel got me wondering if there might be a problem with Russia's supply chain now that Shell, BP, and basically the rest of the world isn't interested in fueling their planes to kill Ukrainian children.  One thing that can cut through corporate profit motivations is being tagged as a child killer.

Steve

Wow that is a really interesting point! Russian oligarchs might not have any hard power in the Kremlin, but they can still hit the regime hard through their direct and indirect control of commodities and the supply chain?! Is this their opportunity to kick back?! 

Edited March 9, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

You can count on that.  Bulgaria and Italy, for example, have had a string of corruption scandals, and there's lots more where that came from.  The point sburke was making is that in order to enter the EU the country must have controls in place to keep the corruption down to a dull roar.  Ukraine is far less corrupt now than it was prior to Maidan kicking out Yanukovych, but on the scale of corruption it's still pretty bad.  Russia, of course, is far worse.

Steve

If Ukraine comes thru this with a country, and an economy to speak off, Zelensky is going to more or less completely in charge for a WHILE, literal father of the nation ect.. If he is half a good a peace time president as he has been a wartime president he use the opportunity to at reduce it, a LOT. 

[Seedorf81]

1 hour ago, keas66 said:

I had seen the same story but  in that one  McDonald's were going to  carry on paying the employees during the closure . So the only angry Russians  would be those  missing out on their Hamburger and Fries .

War is hell..

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Ukraine is already operating Su-27s and MiG-29s.  Russia operates neither over Ukraine.  Technically this could be even better because the Polish MiG-29s should have IFF systems that can interface with Stinger system.

Makes sense. Thank you. I didn’t know that stingers are equipped with IFF.

[sburke]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Anybody know what Russia's 100% domestic aviation fuel production capacity is?  The report that Moscow's airport ran out of fuel got me wondering if there might be a problem with Russia's supply chain now that Shell, BP, and basically the rest of the world isn't interested in fueling their planes to kill Ukrainian children.  One thing that can cut through corporate profit motivations is being tagged as a child killer.

Steve

dunno but being a petro state doesn't seem to have much impact on aviation fuel.  I went to Nigeria a few years back and they were having a crisis.  International flights had to land with enough fuel to proceed to their next destination.  Nigerian air was grounded.

[The Steppenwulf]

9 minutes ago, billbindc said:

There are less destabilizing and far more useful arms transfers that work on Russia's weaknesses instead of Russia's (at least potential) strengths. 

This was a hot potato that nobody wanted. The Poles just tossed it into our lap.

Yes fair enough. It's hard to see how Ukraine can mount any sort of counter offensive without increasing their air power though. I figured this is why they are now petitioning to be supplied with aircraft.  

[dan/california]

How can the airport run out fuel when there are almost no planes flying? Is the refinery/distributor holding back because they are afraid they won't get paid? Because getting paid in rubles amounts to NOT getting paid? Ran out of critical little part immediately? So many questions, but i can't imagine any of the questions, or any of the possible answers are improving Putin's day.