How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Baneman]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Bucha, between Hostomel and Irpin. North of Kyiv.

 

 

Ha ha, oh man, when it pans up at the 1:00 minute mark and there's a line of vehicles ... 

That looks tactically useful ! 

 

[DesertFox]

Out of fuel...lol!

 

 

[BeondTheGrave]

 

There goes the Coke flotilla dream

[dan/california]

They don't discuss his truck score, but it must be substantial. Also if this is a real Russian soldier his moment to desert was about an hour ago.

[Fenris]

Another one or the same as before?

Google translate says is says: Another gift for farmers from the Russian occupiers Thanks to the collected equipment of the occupiers, it is already possible to create a separate farmers' division in Ukraine.

 

[THH149]

When is Rasputitsa - when the land becomes a sea of mud - in Ukraine? March and April?

Well things are going to slow down considerably in a week or two and become a plodding advance, along the sealed roads.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, THH149 said:

When is Rasputitsa - when the land becomes a sea of mud - in Ukraine? March and April?

Well things are going to slow down considerably in a week or two and become a plodding advance, along the sealed roads.

That is where they are now. When it really gets muddy it will be the most pitiful retreat since Napoleon fled Moscow starving. And if they keep killing Ukrainian children a lot of them won't enjoy it very much.. The smart ones are already departing or surrendering.

[akd]

22 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Another one or the same as before?

Google translate says is says: Another gift for farmers from the Russian occupiers Thanks to the collected equipment of the occupiers, it is already possible to create a separate farmers' division in Ukraine.

 

I think the same Tor.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Probus said:

Who holds off an invasion for a sporting event? China must have asked them to hold off. 

That is the scuttlebutt these days.  China, of course, denies it. But I mean, c'mon, it was pretty frik'n obvious that's why Putin went to Beijing for first trip abroad in a couple of years.

Steve

[dan/california]

Not sure if it is significant, but it is certainly interesting.

[Sir Lancelot]

4 hours ago, Probus said:

Who holds off an invasion for a sporting event? China must have asked them to hold off. 

Last time Russia invaded Georgia during China's 2008 Olympics and it was viewed by Beijing as a grave insult. I doubt Putin needs any reminder to not repeat that.

[dan/california]

Consistent with the Russians current performance, Yes? They are making these suicidal, uncoordinated little attacks around Kyiv because command is in a blind panic.

[Battlefront.com]

First published list of Russian PoWs that I know of.  It came from someone in the Ukraine Ministry of Internal Affairs.  Roughly 200 at a quick glance.  Intention of this is to get Russians to recognize names and start to make waves within Russia.  Last page includes contact information to call Ukraine and find out if someone is in their custody.

The posting included some more details (p.s. "Cargo 200" is Russia's code for transporting dead service personnel):

Quote

IMPORTANT! VERY IMPORTANT!

I am publishing the first list of prisoners of war soldiers of the Russian Army, deceived into the territory of peaceful Ukraine.

There will be many more such lists, as the lists of dead soldiers of the occupiers. And you know who is to blame for this - Putin!

Mothers of Russia, come to Kiev and take your sons.

After the hell they endured invading our land, we know for sure that none of them will ever raise a finger against Ukraine again!

Please convey this information to thousands of unhappy Russian mothers whose sons were captured in Ukraine.

It was decided to return captured Russian soldiers to their mothers if they come for them to Ukraine, to Kiev.

What should I do to get my son back from captivity?

1. You need to call the phone numbers specified in the leaflet in order to find out if your son is captive or dead, you need to enter the Telegram Channel Cargo 200.

https://t.me/rf200_now

Or call the hotline of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine - "Come back alive from Ukraine" on multi-channel phones.

+380894201860

+380894201861

+380894201862

Or write to the inbox :

Vernis_iz_ukraine@gmail.com

2. Then, if you have received a confirmation that your son is in captivity with us, the mothers of Russian soldiers should get to Kiev.

After the invasion of Putin's fascist army and closing the airspace, it can only be done in this way:

Get to Kaliningrad or Minsk. From there by bus or taxi to the Polish border.

Then, through the territory of Poland, it will be necessary to get to the checkpoint with Ukraine.

There you will be met and escorted to Kiev, where your son will be handed over to you.

We, Ukrainians, unlike Putin's fascists, do not fight mothers and their captive children.

We are waiting for you in Kiev!

 

[kraze]

8 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Yes, I guess this is very different from Allied carpet bombing turning Axis cities to so much rubble and fire bombing Dresden and Japanese cities. At least we can acknowledge our own sins.

WW2 had no precision munitions and no "hearts and minds"-like doctrines.

Pilots during WW2 didn't have much say in where their dumb and completely non-aerodynamic bomb will go. It was pray and spray.

Now a pilot has to target a civilian building on purpose to hit it. Even with junky soviet munitions his plane shows him where that bomb will go on his HUD.

So comparing WW2 to modern war is wrong.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Consistent with the Russians current performance, Yes? They are making these suicidal, uncoordinated little attacks around Kyiv because command is in a blind panic.

I wouldn't be surprised.  No food or fuel getting through.  the guys at the front have got to be wondering what is going on behind them.  Some amount of movement has to be happening for the casualties to be showing up in Belarus..unless those are the guys from the supply convoy.  Damn this would be a fantastic time for a coup in Belarus.

[dan/california]

That is a big deal if true. Even more so if it frees up Ukrainian Units to help other places.

[dan/california]

Is half the Russian general staff working for Ukraine? Or they have just stolen so much money the army is dysfunctional?

Edited March 5, 2022 by dan/california

[Aragorn2002]

29 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Is half the Russian general staff working for Ukraine? Or they have just stolen so much money the army is dysfunctional?

This has always been the Russian way of waging war. Blundering their way through with masses of troops and material. But they usually achieve their goals. And they will learn from this. WW2 began for  them with Suomussalmi, but ended in Berlin. Personally I don't underestimate the stamina and strength of  the Russian army. That sort of wishful thinking brought us here. One look at the map shows that there's little to be optimistic about. The Russian home front isn't nearly as divided as we hope either.

Apart from that they can station Putins mother and her dog on the border with NATO and send the entire army to Ukraine, since they know that we won't dare to make one step forward.

Edited March 5, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Taranis]

25 minutes ago, dan/california said:

That is a big deal if true. Even more so if it frees up Ukrainian Units to help other places.

 

 

 

[Taranis]

6 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

This has always been the Russian way of waging war. Blundering their way through with masses of troops and material. But they usually achieve their goals. And they will learn from this. WW2 began for  them with Suomussalmi, but ended in Berlin. Personally I don't underestimate the stamina and strength of  the Russian army. That sort of wishful thinking brought us here. One look at the map shows that there's little to be optimistic about. The Russian home front isn't nearly as divided as we hope either.

Agree. I hope a quick end to this war but it need to be recognized that russian (soviet) armies were always extremly resilient in face of really heavy casualties to continue wars.

[Taranis]

 

Quote

 

"08:18 L'ESSENTIEL
Moscou annonce un cessez-le-feu pour l’évacuation des civils de Marioupol
La Russie a annoncé samedi un cessez-le-feu pour permettre l’évacuation des civils de deux villes de l’est de l’Ukraine, dont le port stratégique de Marioupol encerclé, après des concertations entre des représentants de Kiev et Moscou.

A partir de 8 heures, « la partie russe déclare un régime de silence [des armes] et l’ouverture de couloirs humanitaires pour l’évacuation des civils de Marioupol et Volnovakha », a déclaré le ministère russe de la défense, cité par les agences de presse russes. Le ministère a précisé que l’emplacement des couloirs humanitaires et des points de sortie avaient été déterminés en accord avec les autorités ukrainiennes, selon les agences.

Dans la nuit de vendredi à samedi, le maire de Marioupol, Vadim Boïtchenko, a annoncé que ce port stratégique situé sur la mer d’Azov et comptant en temps normal quelque 450 000 habitants était soumis à un « blocus ». Les forces séparatistes prorusses et l’armée ont pour leur part indiqué que la ville était encerclée."

From Le Monde :
 

"08:18 THE ESSENTIAL
Moscow announces a ceasefire for the evacuation of civilians from Mariupol
Russia announced a ceasefire on Saturday to allow the evacuation of civilians from two towns in eastern Ukraine, including the encircled strategic port of Mariupol, after consultations between representatives of Kiev and Moscow.

From 8 a.m., "the Russian side declares a regime of silence [of weapons] and the opening of humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians from Mariupol and Volnovakha", declared the Russian Ministry of Defense, quoted by the Russian news agencies. The ministry said the location of the humanitarian corridors and exit points had been determined in agreement with the Ukrainian authorities, according to the agencies.

On the night of Friday to Saturday, the mayor of Mariupol, Vadim Boïtchenko, announced that this strategic port located on the Sea of Azov and normally counting some 450,000 inhabitants was subject to a “blockade”. Pro-Russian separatist forces and the army, for their part, said the town was surrounded.

 

[Yskonyn]

Finally was able to catch up in this thread.

First and foremost I would like to wish every forum member affected by the war all the strength, courage and hope in this awful time! Especially to our Ukranian friends! Slava Ukraine! 

Thanks everyone for contributing. It has been a total surreal experience to be able to see news popping up in this thread often well before mainstream media picked up on it.

Also thanks to this great community to keep sharing the extensive knowledge that’s been on display here while also keeping the discussion on topic, free from slander, attacks on each other and trolling (at least it never escalated). It goes to show how excellent and mature this community is.

I have little military knowledge to inject into the conversation, but I wanted to add the above to show my respect.

Let’s hope the war will end sooner rather than later and we can all go back to playing games instead.

[kraze]

26 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Agree. I hope a quick end to this war but it need to be recognized that russian (soviet) armies were always extremly resilient in face of really heavy casualties to continue wars.

Last big major war with that kind of involvement that russian army took part in was WW2.

Even during WW2 much of Soviet victory was dependent in half on non-stop human waves and in half on American support. And they also had Ukrainians and Belarusians fighting for them (which actually suffered the most casualties).

They can do neither today - also because unlike WW2 there's no legit casus belli apart from "you go die in a foreign country so we can restore USSR" and that's weak sauce when you aren't winning easily.

Can they enforce total mobilization to just throw bodies at us? Sure they can. Thing is the war isn't fought by the numbers for a long long time and throwing scared, broken human waves at ever angrier defenders may as well cause massive unrest back home.

Edited March 5, 2022 by kraze

[womble]

Looks like Russia is definitely shaping to escalate their devastation of urban areas, if they're giving room for civilians to leave so that they don't get the terrible optics of flattening a city with near half a million people in it. Their historical process for such reduction has been described in the thread, but so have their logistical problems. Do the RA have enough munitions to level city blocks and then curtain them off from reinforcement while their gropos go in? Some suggest maybe not.

[Taranis]

2 minutes ago, kraze said:

Last big major war with that kind of involvement that russian army took part in was WW2.

Even during WW2 much of Soviet victory was dependent in half on non-stop human waves and in half on American support. And they also had Ukrainians and Belarusians fighting for them (which actually suffered the most casualties)

They can do neither today.

Can they enforce total mobilization to just throw bodies at us? Sure they can. Thing is the war isn't fought by the numbers for a long long time and throwing scared, broken human waves at ever angrier defenders may as well cause massive unrest back home.

Agree too. I'm not saying that they can win the war by this way just said that most countries would had end the war well before with such casualties (that in this case a really bad thing for russia).