Battlefront.com Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 I think it is pretty safe to assume that the attacks on Russia's supply capacity is having an effect, even if only locally. From what I've seen of Russian military organization, tracing back into Soviet days, is that logistics lack redundancy. Taking out one or two trucks might be enough to create at least some hassle (more trips to do the same thing), but zapping an entire supply unit probably means whomever they were supplying is going to come up short until another unit's supply system can compensate. Degrade two or more in one area at one time? Much bigger problems. Remember, even if Russia has extra vehicles and crews, it takes time to get them positioned and functioning. If the entire unit is wiped out, even worse. Days if not weeks to undo the disruption. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, womble said: I, without any actual experience of the matter, would think that there would be a fair degree of commonality between the equipment of the two sides, even identical equipment being used in some cases. But aye, they're going to struggle with the "best" (not for export) stuff, at least. It's been suggested that the first-phase goals of the Russian attack were meant to be achieved with minimal damage to civilian infrastructure (hence internet and other basic utilities not being flatlined). And the minimalist (and potentially fatally incomplete) approach to suppression of AD and air force seems to me to be a good indicator that the Russians were planning to be very swift about bringing the matter to a conclusion and/or somewhat optimistic in their estimation of their effectiveness/Ukrainian resilience. Absolutely, if it matches what is in the UA inventory then it is a total win because they already have the logistics in place. I am sure things like T72s and maybe even T80s they can keep going much longer. Some of the more exotic stuff will be much harder. Re: Air, missile strategy, ya that is what we in the business call "half-assed". Likely built on a lot of really shaky assumptions, built on top of other shaky assumptions. If you wanna minimize civilian infrastructure damage, then you go PGM, non-kinetic (isn't Russia supposed to be this cyber god?) or really work hard on your target lists and ROEs. What you do not do is go "s'ok, they will fold like a three legged goat by Sat morning anyway so let's not overdo it." Now they are likely to have to do a lot more damage to civilian infrastructure to pull this our of the fire then they would have in the first place. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: I don't want to critique brave souls like those in the video, but I'd have the thrower in the back seat and hit them coming from the opposite direction. Less likely to get shot upon departure. Steve S'ok, insurgency provides a steep learning curve but people get really good at it really fast. Largely because them that figure it out don't die, Darwin is one helluva drill Sgt. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 (edited) The problem with driving casually past Russians and throwing molotov cocktails at them is that very quickly, those soldiers will stop being patient with civilians and start to fire on every passing vehicle. Just like the US troops in Iraq quickly started to look at approaching cars in a very different way than at home. I think the days of brave Ukrainian civilians standing up to tanks peacefully could be coming to an end soon. Edited February 28, 2022 by Bulletpoint 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 So don't know what people think about Gen P, but this is pretty good and matches pretty much what we have seen on this thread. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said: The problem with driving casually past Russians and throwing molotiv cocktails at them is that very quickly, those soldiers will stop being patient with civilians and start to fire on every passing vehicle. Another disadvantage of Russia's BMG concept is that the units don't necessarily know each other as well as they would in a Western force. They also most likely do not have the same degree of communications between units as in the West. Which means, lessons learned by one unit probably takes longer to be passed around army wide compared to the West. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHEqTRO Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 More on the closure of the Bosphorus: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said: Another disadvantage of Russia's BMG concept is that the units don't necessarily know each other as well as they would in a Western force. They also most likely do not have the same degree of communications between units as in the West. Which means, lessons learned by one unit probably takes longer to be passed around army wide compared to the West. Steve Surely they receive order from somewhere? Very quickly, there could be a "be wary of firebomb attacks from civilians" message coming down from above. Also, the individual unit might respond to an attack like that.. What would a US platoon do if some passing car threw a firebomb or a grenade at them? I'm guessing they'd fire back. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said: The problem with driving casually past Russians and throwing molotiv cocktails at them is that very quickly, those soldiers will stop being patient with civilians and start to fire on every passing vehicle. So if we wanna talk insurgencies...heh, well 20 years has built a whole bunch of experts with a ton of experience here in the west on that one. From an insurgency point of view, that is exactly what you want. A military force that is heavy handed because it feels isolated and threatened from all sides is creating more insurgents with every action. This is a race to the bottom that formed militaries cannot win without a genocidal level of effort (and history if full of them that tried). Then insurgents will evolve to IEDs, and the Ukrainians have access to western SOF who won't mess around with jugs of homemade crap, no we are talking EFPs that are going to make any movement a living hell. Oh, the dark and dirty road of insurgency is just starting, worse it will likely widen the fight as terrorist actions inside Russia are also likely. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vet 0369 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 5 hours ago, Cpl Steiner said: I saw a US Media reporter say that two journalists were killed when armed civilians shot up their car believing them to be saboteurs - so, yes. [Edit] Not probably the "bad things" you had in mind but untrained civilians with AKs and fear of spies and saboteurs in their midst is a bad combination. Gee, do you think that the reports of Russian “Special Operatives” putting on Ukraine uniforms, and driving Ukraine vehicles to infiltrate UKR cities and such contributed to that at all? Of course that will tend to create a panic situation and reaction of the population. It happens in every conflict where media reporters decide they want to take that risk in order to be “you heard it first here.” 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armorgunner Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 (edited) Russia warns countries sending weapons to Ukraine, reports Reuters. Countries that supply Ukraine with lethal weapons "will be held accountable" if used against Russian troops. It writes the Russian Foreign Ministry in a statement, reports the news agency Interfax. Exactly what this means they do not specify. The warning also applies to those who send fuel. "The actions of the European Union will not be left without a tough answer," the Foreign Ministry wrote according to the news agency. Link: МИД РФ пообещал ЕС жесткий ответ за роль Евросоюза в событиях на Украине (interfax.ru) Russian, use google translate Could the tough answer be more retreating Russian troops? Or more burning Russian armored vehicles? Edited February 28, 2022 by Armorgunner 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeondTheGrave Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, The_Capt said: So if we wanna talk insurgencies...heh, well 20 years has built a whole bunch of experts with a ton of experience here in the west on that one. From an insurgency point of view, that is exactly what you want. A military force that is heavy handed because it feels isolated and threatened from all sides is creating more insurgents with every action. This is a race to the bottom that formed militaries cannot win without a genocidal level of effort (and history if full of them that tried). I wonder what advice the US and former ISAF partners are providing to Ukrainian planners right now. Here was our 'Dos and Don'ts' of Counterinsurgency. Here how the Afhgans and Iraqis circumvented and frustrated our efforts. Heres what you should do and how we think the Russians will respond. Also watch out, were all libel to be criminals soon! Scary. but also: Edited February 28, 2022 by BeondTheGrave 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 And one last thought that has been bugging me, UA's likely greatest asset right now is the ISR being provided by the west. To the point that I am becoming convinced that the UA might have information superiority right now, especially if the US machine has thrown its full weight behind this. If the US is sharing all the "INTs" along with hi resolution satellite, UA commanders probably have a better idea of the battlespace than Russian ones. Let alone if there is a cyber war happening in the background. This is probably one of the biggest advantages the Ukrainians could have in this fight. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Beyond this conflict, Russia will spend a very long time without anybody fearing a conventional war with them. Before this war they spent a lot of time doing things to convince the world they were stronger than they in fact were. Now that everybody has seen they really are as weak as they are, it's going to be tough for Russia to get people to take them seriously again. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Just now, Battlefront.com said: Beyond this conflict, Russia will spend a very long time without anybody fearing a conventional war with them. Before this war they spent a lot of time doing things to convince the world they were stronger than they in fact were. Now that everybody has seen they really are as weak as they are, it's going to be tough for Russia to get people to take them seriously again. Steve Ouch. That is some hard truth right there. This and the west is likely going to rally around NATO hard. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 12 minutes ago, The_Capt said: So don't know what people think about Gen P, but this is pretty good and matches pretty much what we have seen on this thread. He's made some unfortunate personal decisions, but no one can fault his combat leadership and knowledge. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHEqTRO Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: Beyond this conflict, Russia will spend a very long time without anybody fearing a conventional war with them. Before this war they spent a lot of time doing things to convince the world they were stronger than they in fact were. Now that everybody has seen they really are as weak as they are, it's going to be tough for Russia to get people to take them seriously again. Steve Yep, and as more tanks are sent to be destroyed on Ukraine, the lesser is the threat (conventionally speaking) to NATO countries, and the more aggresive the EU and NATO can get with sanctions and with weapon deliveries to the ukranians. The russians would be wise to accept whatever peace agreement (as long as it allows them to save face to their public) the Ukranians are giving them, and not allow this to keep spiriling down into disaster. Edited February 28, 2022 by CHEqTRO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Just now, sburke said: He's made some unfortunate personal decisions, but no one can fault his combat leadership and knowledge. This. He got into trouble because he was a bit loose with his lips (probably in more ways than one, ba-dump-dump-smash). His military mind wasn't ever questioned. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, Armorgunner said: Russia warns countries sending weapons to Ukraine, reports Reuters. Countries that supply Ukraine with lethal weapons "will be held accountable" if used against Russian troops. It writes the Russian Foreign Ministry in a statement, reports the news agency Interfax. Exactly what this means they do not specify. The warning also applies to those who send fuel. "The actions of the European Union will not be left without a tough answer," the Foreign Ministry wrote according to the news agency. Link: МИД РФ пообещал ЕС жесткий ответ за роль Евросоюза в событиях на Украине (interfax.ru) Russian, use google translate Could the tough answer be more retreating Russian troops? Or more burning Russian armored vehicles? We can only hope. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 1 minute ago, CHEqTRO said: Yep, and as more tanks are sent to be destroyed on Ukraine, the lesser is the threat (conventionally speaking) to NATO countries, and the more aggresive the EU and NATO can get with sanctions and with weapon deliveries to the ukranians. The russians would be wise to accept whatever peace agreement the Ukranians are giving them, and not allow this to keep spiriling down into disaster. At some point during Desert Storm/Shield Russia pushed hard to get the war to stop. Analysts were saying that the main reason for that was the images of all that Soviet weaponry being totally useless against Coalition forces was really bad for their arms export business. Not too surprising to see a lot of countries shift over to Western built systems in the years that followed.. I doubt anybody in the Russian government is thinking of this right now while in crisis mode, but at some point they probably will. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Just now, Aragorn2002 said: We can only hope. Yes. At the current state of affairs the lunatic could do everything, but I still hope before he gets to the nuclear decision someone will make sure that he gets some 9mm headache. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Ouch. That is some hard truth right there. This and the west is likely going to rally around NATO hard. They Russians have smashed their military reputation with a sledge hammer, it will take 20 years to fix in the best case scenario. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said: Yep, and as more tanks are sent to be destroyed on Ukraine, the lesser is the threat (conventionally speaking) to NATO countries, and the more aggresive the EU and NATO can get with sanctions and with weapon deliveries to the ukranians. The russians would be wise to accept whatever peace agreement the Ukranians are giving them, and not allow this to keep spiriling down into disaster. Don't the Russians have something like 31.000 tanks and other armored vehicles? Edited February 28, 2022 by Aragorn2002 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said: Don't the Russians have something like 31.000 tanks and other armored vehicles? Most sources say around 12.5k but they really cannot send them all to Ukraine. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAZ NZ Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 (edited) Latest updates 2 more video updates after this with position updates etc Edited February 28, 2022 by GAZ NZ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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