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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Very predictable. It only shows how mad this guy is. And that we took the right decision by confronting him. This will only isolate him more and put him aside as the lunatic he is. Hopefully his cronies also realize this and get rid of him.

Besides, where does it stop when we let ourselves be intimidated by this? He will threaten us time and time again and can that way take over country by country until he reaches the North Sea.

Let's keep our head cool and give Ukraine all the support it needs to fight on, while at the same time sanction the hell out of Russia. If Putin wants to nuke us, it can't be avoided anyway. And we will take him with us.

Edited by Aragorn2002
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Russia loves to produce films about the Second World War and they have also made some about the Afghan and Chechen wars. I wonder how many Russian films there will be made about this war? Ukraine has at least a former Miss Ukraine that can be the subject of their next war film which probably would be a popular one.

Edited by BornGinger
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Just now, BornGinger said:

Russia loves to produce films about the second world war. I wonder how many Russian films there will be made about this war. Ukraine has at least a former Miss Ukraine that can be the subject of their next war film which probably would be a popular one.

According to Russian media, there is no war, so this will be difficult.

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16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Any territorial concessions from our side are impossible. Our army and society got courage and will not allow such deals. I assume possibility of neutral status only. Ukranian society pleased to NATO for a weapon, but dissappointed because of "deep concerning" policy and fear in front of Russia. Year ago Putin also either prepared invasion or just trained it, but B-52s in our sky, British paratroopers in Kherson some colled him. If NATO would send some troops for demonstrative purpose, maybe Putin will not dare to invade and thousands of lifes would be saved...

Quite right, Haiduk. Enough cowering for those criminals. Not an inch of Ukraine for them.

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Second confirmed loss of T-90A. This is the same tank, which was hit with NLAW in my previous posted video.

I repeat video and photo to it. This is in Sumy outskirt. This city is controlled by Ukrainians, but already situates in the rear of Russian troops. The tank was abandoned, but our troops decided to knok it out, because probably couldn't repair it and was a risk Russians will take it back

 

Зображення

Edited by Haiduk
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40 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Ukrainian army is searching for a column of Russian equipment marked with a "V" that is heading for Kyiv.

Ok, the column was found and completely destroyed in Bucha. I don't know - either airstrike, or artillery. I can't count all of them - looks like a comapniy of VDV on BMD-2, BTR-D, Nona (at least one teared off turret seen) and 1-2 motor-rifle platoons of BTR-82 + 1V14 FO vehicle and fuel tanker

Local inhabitant speech, which filmed this devastation contains mostly selected filthy language in adress of Russians, which I can't adequately translate in English :)

Two parts of video

 

Haiduk,

Clearly, "See something, say something" worked--spectacularly!  Some of those AFVs were blown up so completely the engine block of one is easily 10 meters outside of the location of the destroyed AFV. By similarity to expressions I picked up from watching Russian war series and movies with English subtitles, the last two words uttered by the guy in the second video were "I understand".

At 0:11 on the first video, believe I'm looking at the back end of a command vehicle, for I'm seeing (despite very blurry image and blurry eyes) all kinds of things on that AFV's roof that aren't on the standard versions, including a possible antenna that looks like two whip antennas with another antenna across them (long range radio?). There is also what looks to me to be a APU housing on the right rear of the vehicle. Seconds later, and regrettably shown only to slightly above hulltop level, is what I believe is a 9K35 Strela-10. The missile canisters in the pic (unit shown in pic has only 2 instead of 4 missiles mounted) look like what's in the video, and the UI AFV in the video has the same sort of rear railing, too.

https://www.armyrecognition.com/russia_russian_missile_system_vehicle_uk/sa-13_gopher_9k35_strela-10_technical_data_sheet_specifications_information_description_pictures.html

SA-13_gopher_anti-aircraft_tracked_armou

Regards,

John Kettler

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29 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Any territorial concessions from our side are impossible. Our army and society got courage and will not allow such deals. I assume possibility of neutral status only. Ukranian society pleased to NATO for a weapon, but dissappointed because of "deep concerning" policy and fear in front of Russia. Year ago Putin also either prepared invasion or just trained it, but B-52s in our sky, British paratroopers in Kherson some colled him. If NATO would send some troops for demonstrative purpose, maybe Putin will not dare to invade and thousands of lifes would be saved...

There is no way Russia gets out of this without the territory of the Donbass republics. It has little strategic value, but good luck selling to its population that they won if they cant even get that. I think Zelensky understands that, and considering the alternative is the continuation of a war that could result in the end of the Ukranian state and freedom, its a small concession to give. The Finns, despite winning their war against the soviets, and all their sacrifices; also had to give up the city of Vïpurii, despite being its second largest city at the time.

Still, in my opinion, this peace talks are a russian psyops, or them trying to win legitimacy/time, and do not really have an honest intention of achieving peace in the current conditions, due to what I explained before, as this deal would still be a big strategic defeat. However, the sanctions, strategic in nature, are going to have severe consecuencies for Rusia, and as of now, they dont even have Ukraine to counterbalace them. So the threat of failing into an escalation spiral is there.

If there is rationality still left in the Russian high command, they will cut up their losses,they will try a last push towards Kiev in order to get more leverage, and then they will take this deal, and so will Ukraine most likely. If not, well, this is going to keep spiriling into a bigger war.

Edited by CHEqTRO
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33 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Very predictable. It only shows how mad this guy is. 

Well that is the mistake people make of assuming Putin is not a rational actor. Does anyone really believe the Russian military/GRU would leave him in charge of nuclear weapons if he was crazy?

Putin has said in the past removing Russia from SWIFT would be considered an act of war, sanctioning the Russian Central Bank which could potentially cause the collapse of the Russian economy is on the same level.

The situation is analogous to the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. JFK would have been quite ready to trigger a nuclear war if the Russians did not back down and pull their missiles from Cuba. 

Putin may be bluffing, but it is the same dilemna the West has been facing recently, are we ready to risk a nuclear war over Ukraine?

Edited by Sgt Joch
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1 minute ago, John Kettler said:

Haiduk,

By similarity to expressions I picked up from watching Russian war series and movies with English subtitles, the last two words uttered by the guy in the second video were "I understand".

Seconds later, and regrettably shown only to slightly above hulltop level, is what I believe is a 9K35 Strela-10. The missile canisters in the pic (unit shown in pic has only 2 instead of 4 missiles mounted)
 

Yes, that Strela-10, I forgot to point it.

The man at the and filmed the soldiers and they say him "Do not film us, this is prohibited" and the man said "I understand"

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5 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

Well that is the mistake people make of assuming Putin is not a rational actor. Does anyone really believe the Russian military/GRU would leave him in charge of nuclear weapons if he was crazy?

Putin has said in the past removing Russia from SWIFT would be considered an act of war, sanctioning the Russian Central Bank which could potentially cause the collapse of the Russian economy is on the same level.

The situation is analogous to the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. JFK would have been quite ready to trigger a nuclear war if the Russians did not back down and pull their missiles from Cuba. 

Putin may be bluffing, but it is the same dilemna the West has been facing recently, are we ready to risk a nuclear war over Ukraine?

If Putin is a rational actor, there's nothing to worry about. And are we ready to risk a nuclear war over Estonia, Latvia or Poland?

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39 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

Well that is the mistake people make of assuming Putin is not a rational actor. Does anyone really believe the Russian military/GRU would leave him in charge of nuclear weapons if he was crazy?

Putin has said in the past removing Russia from SWIFT would be considered an act of war, sanctioning the Russian Central Bank which could potentially cause the collapse of the Russian economy is on the same level.

The situation is analogous to the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. JFK would have been quite ready to trigger a nuclear war if the Russians did not back down and pull their missiles from Cuba. 

Putin may be bluffing, but it is the same dilemna the West has been facing recently, are we ready to risk a nuclear war over Ukraine?

As @Aragorn2002 puts it, if we succumb towards nuclear blackmail once, there is no stopping there. Where is the line drawn of wether a country is worth saving and which country is not? Is worth to risk war for Poland or Rumania as well?

The disconnect of SWIFT is not plainly punitive, is done in order to protect the countries in the eastern flank of NATO, to counterbalance the shift in the balance of power that the conquest of Ukraine by Russia would entail. So if Ukraine falls, its either start doing that, or see how the eastern NATO flank desintagrates with the passing of time, either by economic or military pressure, or direct kinetic action.

So in fact yes, we should risk war for Ukraine, as its fall without repercusion would be disastrous to the EU and the eastern NATO countries, and as such, NATO and US defense strategy as a whole.

Edited by CHEqTRO
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2 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

As @Aragorn2002 puts it, if we succumb towards nuclear blackmail once, there is no stopping there. Where is the line drawn of wether a country is worth saving and which country is not? Is worth to risk war for Poland or Rumania as well?

The disconnect of SWIFT is not plainly punitive, is done in order to protect the countries in the eastern flank of NATO, to counterbalance the shift in the balance of power that the conquest of Ukraine by Russia would entail. So if Ukraine falls, its either start doing that, or see how the eastern NATO flank desintagrates with the passing of time, either by economic or military pressure, or direct kinetic action.

So in fact yes, we should risk war for Ukraine, as its fall without repercusion would be disastrous to the EU and the eastern NATO countries, and as such, NATO and US defense strataegy as a whole.

Precisely. Nobody in it's right mind want to risk a nuclear war, but we have no choice. Putin puts us with our backs to the wall. Whether we see it or not, he has us cornered and we must fight our way out. This isn't just about Kiev or Charkov, but also about Riga, Warsaw, Berlin, Amsterdam and Paris.

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Interesting comment from WSJ:  "...time for Germany, France, UK, US, Canada, others to offer citizenship to Russian soldiers in Ukraine who surrender to Ukraine forces. Include wives and children, of course, if Russia will let them out."

The problem (so far) re SWIFT is that the west (esp Germany) doesn't want to inflict ban on the Russian banks with which they do biz - so western corporate interests are basically sabotaging any sanctions for their own profits...  Just as they did re China of course.

Re Putin's goal(s) they are almost certainly several.  eg: Someone here some months ago mentioned the need for a land access to Crimea due to water depletion etc.

Edited by Erwin
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23 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

...Putin may be bluffing, but it is the same dilemna the West has been facing recently, are we ready to risk a nuclear war over Ukraine?

Problem is that every time Putin has been allowed to get away with something, he's escalated.

So if everyone says "let him have Ukraine or he'll nuke us", what do you say when he decides he'd like a land-bridge to Kaliningrad ? Or that some other neighbouring country is "historically Russian" ?

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Anti.... Helicopter..... mine.... Just....

BFG please?

45 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Second confirmed loss of T-90A. This is the same tank, which was hit with NLAW in my previous posted video.

Some of what I have read is that the Russian elite divisions were placed in the Belgorod area, 2nd Guards MRD was (uncomfortably) encamped in that area just days before the invasion began. Source. Recent tweets and evidence have suggested that the primary axes are now Belarus -> Kiev and Belgorod -> Kharkov. I have seen further suggestion (will try to find tweets) that reserves have been activated in the Belgorod axis in preparation for todays botched attack on Kharkov. @DesertFox's tweet further suggests that reserve forces are now being committed. 

My Thesis: Putin has committed the old guard, it has failed to change the situation. 

Edit: update on the Belgorod thesis

 

Edited by BeondTheGrave
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2 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Precisely. Nobody in it's right mind want to risk a nuclear war, but we have no choice. Putin puts us with our backs to the wall. Whether we see it or not, he has us cornered and we must fight our way out. This isn't just about Kiev or Charkov, but also about Riga, Warsaw, Berlin, Amsterdam and Paris.

Well not really, Ukraine is unfortunately of no strategic importance to the EU or USA whatsoever. Even if the Russians should win and Ukraine is occupied for say 10, 20 or 30 years, it will have no impact on the ROW. It will be a tragedy for the Ukrainians of course, but so was the Vietnam war to the Vietnamese, Iraq war to the Iranians and the Afghanistan war to the Afghans. 

Does anyone think it would have been worth starting a nuclear holocaust over the Vietnam war, Iraq war, Afghanistan war or any of the other Cold War conflicts since 1945. This war is not any different.

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6 minutes ago, Baneman said:

Problem is that every time Putin has been allowed to get away with something, he's escalated.

So if everyone says "let him have Ukraine or he'll nuke us", what do you say when he decides he'd like a land-bridge to Kaliningrad ? Or that some other neighbouring country is "historically Russian" ?

Those countries are part of NATO and at that point, we will have no choice.

Ukraine is not part of NATO.

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11 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Some of what I have read is that the Russian elite divisions were placed in the Belgorod area, 2nd Guards MRD was (uncomfortably) encamped in that area just days before the invasion began

Yesterday we already had one POW from signal unit of 2nd MRD. Now large Russian forces is concentrating in Bakhmach area, on the east of Chernihiv oblast. Reportedly 75 tanks and other armor

Edited by Haiduk
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