How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[womble]

7 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

Yes, and do you know exactly what the "territorial seas" cover and do not cover? It's just 12 miles off the coast, and the Baltic Sea for example is more than 12 miles wide on each side.

Yeah, that map is misleading. Still, while it means Kalingrad is accessible by air, doesn't it mean that the Denmark-Sweden strait is closed to travel further afield?

[Bulletpoint]

I'm starting to think this war might be the end of NATO. Because the alliance was set up to defend against the Soviet Union, and later against the Russians.

But if this is how the Russian Army fights, why do we need a huge alliance to defend against them?

[arkhangelsk2021]

Just now, Bulletpoint said:

But if this is how the Russian Army fights, why do we need a huge alliance to defend against them?

Whatever you may think of them now, they were even worse in 1995, and NATO still hung around.

5 minutes ago, womble said:

Yeah, that map is misleading. Still, while it means Kalingrad is accessible by air, doesn't it mean that the Denmark-Sweden strait is closed to travel further afield?

You are probably right. But even if that's not the case, in any case there are few decent destinations for Russians to travel to, at least for the next year.

[womble]

14 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Also, the first T90 I have seen till now, abandoned near Sumy:

Is that just bogged? Or can tanks negotiate mud that deep and soft? It looks like it'll be planing on its belly in that muck. It's at the end of the ruts, and there's a towing cable running between the two. Score two more for General Mud...?

 

[womble]

5 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

But if this is how the Russian Army fights, why do we need a huge alliance to defend against them?

Because they may not always be as disorganised as they appear to be at this time. Also, the ties of NATO have potentially assisted in creating some of the disorganisation. US intelligence on the potential false flag operations seems to have disrupted the Russian's operational tempo, and I'm pretty sure the tactical intel that's coming Ukraine's way wouldn't be, without the ties that bind. The US remains the senior partner in the alliance, and their interests would be much less focused on Russia without NATO's continued existence.

[arkhangelsk2021]

17 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/27-february-ukraine-has-submitted-its-application-against

Interesting idea. I support it, and not only because Bellingcat actually was convincing about those being fakes. Because even taking them at face value, they just fall far short of anything that can reasonably be called Genocide.

To extend from this, even Russian legal professionals cannot bring themselves to call their claims Genocide.

 

 

[John Kettler]

OSINTtechnical @ 3hr mark has GoPro grade footage of 3 x shot up Tigr STSs being emptied out, with lots of goodies on the ground, being taken out and a good look inside. No bodies or other biologicals.

CHEqTRO,

Shall we credit the rasputitsa for disabling the tank and the SPH--whether by bogging, running out of fuel, or both?

All,

Would like to point out the courage of the Conflict Intelligence Team, which is in Russia and reporting Russian losses!  Would further note that the known Typhoon losses to the Red Army are up to 3. Whether or not this one is still usable I don't know. Oryx listed the first two I saw as captured.

 

 

CIT (en)

 

@CITeam_en

 

We have collected evidence of another Russian unit sustaining losses in Ukraine. This is the 96th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade of the 1st Guards Tank Army, currently fighting on Kharkiv and also like Chernihiv axes.

 

 

 

According to our source as well as open source evidence, the 96th Recon Brigade is not the only 1st Guards Tank Army unit sustaining losses in Ukraine. Others include the 423rd Guards Motorized Regiment, whose soldiers were one of the first POWs showcased by Ukrainian forces

 

 

 

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited February 27, 2022 by John Kettler

[CHEqTRO]

1 hour ago, John Kettler said:

CHEqTRO,

Shall we credit the rasputitsa for disabling the tank and the SPH--whether by bogging, running out of fuel, or both?

Honestly, no idea. I would say that they abandoned their vehicles after finding themselves without support and probably nearly out of fuel, irrelevantly of the condition of the ground, but who knows really.

I mean, the T90 does seem to be stuck looking at the video. Not so much the 2S3. After losing the support of the T90, they decided to abandon the SPG? What were a tank and a self proppelled gun doing there by themselves, anyway? So yeah, who knows.

Edit:

There are a lot of reports of other abandoned vehicles on roads, and of lack of fuel. Hence why I think the abandonement of those vehicles is more related to poor planing and lack of fuel, rather than mud.

Edited February 27, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Suchy]

Very good map
https://www.map.army/?ShareID=1009141&UserType=RO-uE2BzdFd

[arkhangelsk2021]

4 minutes ago, Suchy said:

Very good map
https://www.map.army/?ShareID=1009141&UserType=RO-uE2BzdFd

 Nice find. Before we talk about tactics or mud, the correlation of forces are just horrible (from an attacker's point of view).

[Grey_Fox]

24 minutes ago, Suchy said:

Very good map
https://www.map.army/?ShareID=1009141&UserType=RO-uE2BzdFd

What's the source for this?

How do they know the position of both Ukrainian and Russian forces.

Ngl it looks like a figment of somebody's imagination.

[Suchy]

This map was developed by Polish specialists from the editorial team of the military magazine Technika wojskowa (Military Technology). I think that the positions are approximate and are shown for illustration instead of a continuous front line, which is not really there.

[arkhangelsk2021]

Just now, Suchy said:

This map was developed by Polish specialists from the editorial team of the military magazine Technika wojskowa (Military Technology). I think that the positions are approximate and are shown for illustration instead of a continuous front line, which is not really there.

Oh I see. I think it's value is less in the positions (LIveUAmap or Wiki probably has more updated positions) than the units, so you can have a feel of how much is in each sector.

[BeondTheGrave]

4 hours ago, CHEqTRO said:

What this tells me, by the way, its that the Russian high command is desperate. They probably had expected Kharkiv to be in their hands already, in order to complete the encirclement of the Donbass area (Remember that yesterday the russians were able to satart threathening Mariupol). It also shows that the russian high command its unwilling, for whatever reasons, to modify its initial war plans. They had been ordered to take Kharkiv, so they will go and try to take it, the overall operational situation and the accumulated losses be damned.

This whole thing is the most anti-Russian thing I've ever read. I think on the CMCW forums I've said in threads that the Russians arn't dummies and if they had to stop to deploy for a deliberate attack they would make you pay for it and fight it well. Glad Putin is out to prove me wrong, clearly he was reading my posts. 

Really tho I dont understand this. I always though the Russian way of war was to fight deliberate battles like a computer plays chess. Plan out every move, maximize force ratios, attack single points from multiple directions, and keep everything under constant artillery suppression. Yet none of the boxes seem to be checked off here. It seems to me from 10k miles away like theyre still, on day 4, on a front which has stagnated, attacking from road march. You'd think some of these units had just advanced 100km before the reached the city. 

[DesertFox]

29 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

 Nice find. Before we talk about tactics or mud, the correlation of forces are just horrible (from an attacker's point of view).

Yep. However unless the russians are capable to throw in a second wave in the assault it looks to me the assault has run out of steam and they will start to crumble beginning next week. Let´s see what happens. Time is working in favour of the ukrainians.

[BeondTheGrave]

3 hours ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

I'm of the mind that to the Russians, ultimately the VDV is also a tool for achieving State's goals. This is, in essence, Hameln from Red Army.

This is true of every force and goes back to Clausewitz. Strategy is the proper correlation of means (including the VDV) to ends (what the VDV can accomplish) and national objective (what kind of world vladdy daddy wants to live in). 

Specifically the VDV and Russian airborne forces have long been used as pathfinders, their mission is to seize targets of operation and strategic value on day one, to sow chaos in rear areas, and prepare their prizes for rapid consolidation by follow on armored forces. The VDV exists neither to die nor to hit and run. They bite and hold like a bulldog till armored forces arrive to leapfrog off their positions. Probably the clearest two indicators that the Russians failed on their day 1 objectives were that no armored relief force arrived to relieve the VDV forces in Kyiv, and no follow on VDV forces were dropped despite plans to (imo potentially the biggest mistake of the campaign for them). 

[Haiduk]

UKR Su-25 (or even two Su-25 according to other information) shot down in Kerson oblast several hours ago

And reportedly two Russian helicopters downed near Ivankiv, Kyiv oblast

[Lethaface]

3 hours ago, borg said:

That’s it - Irpin heavy assault by RUS has been repelled , and the footage ….. it’s not nice . My god. War is hell. 
 

why the hell , did they do this ? Russia must stop this . It’s an annihilation. 

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/27-february-video-of-destroyed-russian-column-at-bucha

[arkhangelsk2021]

23 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Probably the clearest two indicators that the Russians failed on their day 1 objectives were that no armored relief force arrived to relieve the VDV forces in Kyiv, and no follow on VDV forces were dropped despite plans to (imo potentially the biggest mistake of the campaign for them). 

In Red Army, Hameln never received its iinkup. Deliberately so. Other forces are even directed away from Hameln.

The basic problem for the Russians in that sector is force ratios. Not denying with better tactics they might have made it slightly less painful, but that's not the main issue. I've been suspecting it and this map confirms my suspicions. Note the correlation of forces for the Western Kiev sector. There are two brigades and a division sending part of itself into that area, so very roughly the attacking force is three brigades. The defending force is also about three brigades. The map doesn't number them, but I'd suspect it's the 30th and 72nd Mechanized plus the 40th "Rapid Response" Brigade. There's also a Spetznaz Brigade not on this map. In theory, with a 3 on 3 matchup, the expected advance rate is zero, because the forces are even.

By incentivizing 40th RRB to go crush the airborne company instead, it becomes a 3:2 while the RRB isn't back in the line. Still far from ideal, but at least turning things from a non-starter to just painful. That's why while it's desirable to do linkups or at least expanded the land force from a company to a battalion to increase its survivability, why the Russians had to make the attempt anyway. It's probably why we are talking about whether they'd get Kiev instead of whether they'd reach Kiev.

=

APPEND Section: For those of you who were cheering on every dead Russian tank:

In Japanese, but it suggests Germany may be about give Ukraine Gepard antiaircraft vehicles. Ooo, a whole step up from portable missiles.

Edited February 27, 2022 by arkhangelsk2021
Some good news for those cheering on Ukraine

[TheVulture]

8 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

By incentivizing 40th RRB to go crush the airborne company instead, it becomes a 3:2 while the RRB isn't back in the line. Still far from ideal, but at least turning things from a non-starter to just painful. That's why while it's desirable to do linkups or at least expanded the land force from a company to a battalion to increase its survivability, why the Russians had to make the attempt anyway. It's probably why we are talking about whether they'd get Kiev instead of whether they'd reach Kiev.

The problem I have with that is what did the Russian forces achieve while they had that 3-2 superiority? It looks like sacrificing some top tier troops for a temporary advantage elsewhere and then failing to capitalise on that advantage in any way. 

[BeondTheGrave]

I suppose this is one way of propping up the Russian central bank. 

 

Beware the V. You may recall the tweet I posted yesterday about the disguised fuel trucks, they had Vs but someone looks like they had tried to scratch them off with a rock. I dont think I have seen many Vs at all. Perhaps the letter is branch of service. Nat Guard vs. Regular Army vs. Special services? 

The choice of photo for this news report is just, wow. Amazing. 

Rough update on casualty statistics. I cant read Ukrainian, is the claim really 4300 hundred Russian soldiers dead or just 4300 casualties? Big difference there. I always figure in my head the ratio of dead to wounded is roughly 1:3. 4300 dead would be ~13k wounded? 

An interesting resupply development. Suggests there is still an Air Force worth saving. Confirms what many here are saying that even the Air Force suppression on day 1 was botched. What happened? Was there some clever Ukrainian shell game, did they just fly everything into western Ukraine to hide it, or did the Russians just not drop enough bombs? To be honest, the fact that there is a single functional airfield in Ukraine is shocking, I would think every airfield you didn't want to be used would be suppressed constantly. Its infrastructure destroyed. 

Always a scary headline. 

 

[Bulletpoint]

Do Russian soldiers have smartphones and access to the internet? I can't imagine it being very good for their morale to see how entire Russian columns and planes full of paratroopers are thrown away haphazardly.

[arkhangelsk2021]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

Do Russian soldiers have smartphones and access to the internet? I can't imagine it being very good for their morale to see how entire Russian columns and planes full of paratroopers are thrown away haphazardly.

If they had smartphones, they would be able to find where they are on Google Maps and we won't have those guys claiming they have no clue where they are. There have been instances in the past when Russian soldiers were too casual with putting stuff on smartphones, causing un-necessary leaks. I'd assume they had been confiscated.

[DesertFox]

Not good...

Russia-Ukraine latest: Vladimir Putin puts nuclear deterrent forces on high alert over Nato's 'unfriendly' sanctions (telegraph.co.uk)

 

[arkhangelsk2021]

15 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Rough update on casualty statistics. I cant read Ukrainian, is the claim really 4300 hundred Russian soldiers dead or just 4300 casualties? Big difference there. I always figure in my head the ratio of dead to wounded is roughly 1:3. 4300 dead would be ~13k wounded? 

Google says that group of words do mean dead. Not that the Ukrainians would be precise about it. The worrying thing, from the Ukrainian point of view, is that the rate of Russian dead is slowing. First it was 1000, then it was 3500 and now it's only 4300. When even the claims start to become more conservative ... I know a lot of people want Ukraine to win this one. It's not even like I really mind them winning this one, but I think we can also be alert to these danger signals too.

Edited February 27, 2022 by arkhangelsk2021
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