How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

It came as quite a surprise to me Belarus is not independent at all, but a puppet state of Russia. I knew of course it had close relations with Moscow, but not that close. So we can safely assume Putin was behind the stream of refugees from the Middle East that flooded the Polish border some months ago. 

[TheVulture]

2 minutes ago, Holien said:

Industrial activities? Oil production / Gas flares?

Most likely. In the UK some power station cooling towers near where I live look like they show up

[Seedorf81]

Suppose you're in Putin's shoes when the attack on Kyiv doesn't bring what you expected.. 

What will you do? What can you do?

(Bearing in mind that you're in an unstable state of mind, to say it mildly, and your advisors probably won't tell you what you do not want to hear.)

I fear that escalation, even to the point of tactical nukes, will be his choice.

 

 

 

Edited February 26, 2022 by Seedorf81

[keas66]

Long time lurker -  Thoughts on the possibility of NATO extending a No Fly Zone / Buffer in Western Ukraine if things carry on badly for the Russians and they start resorting to more destructive attacks against civilians ? . Justification based on  need to protect  Refugee transit areas ....but  allows some stability in providing further military logistics support through Lviv .  Once  we start to see the outrage grow globally and worsen with increasing Civilian Casualties - US/NATO may feel they  have to act  , and Biden may see enough backing State Side to justify a  Humanitarian based mission in Western Ukraine .  

[borg]

Chechens are out of the fight they said . From Twitter -> The feared leader of the Chechen Republic, a constituent of the Russian Federation, say “he does not want to fight against Ukraine.” His forces were considered shock troops and meant to bread terror in Ukraine. He and his forces are out of Russia’s Ukraine war! 

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Suppose your in Putin's shoes when the attack on Kyiv doesn't bring what you expected.. 

What will you do? What can you do?

(Bearing in mind that you're in an unstable state of mind, to say it mildly, and your advisors probably won't tell you what you do not want to hear.)

I fear that escalation, even to the point of tactical nukes, will be his choice.

 

 

 

Putin may not care about living, everyone around him is getting to ponder their own opinion. Their opinion of their life, and his.

[borg]

4 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Suppose your in Putin's shoes when the attack on Kyiv doesn't bring what you expected.. 

What will you do? What can you do?

(Bearing in mind that you're in an unstable state of mind, to say it mildly, and your advisors probably won't tell you what you do not want to hear.)

I fear that escalation, even to the point of tactical nukes, will be his choice.

 

 

 

So ….. let’s actually discuss this 

does anyone know how it works ? As in …. I’m noob when it comes to launch codes etc. is it just president.  ? Are there multiple codes that need to be synchronized ? Who presses the button etc. is there a protocol . And lastly …. Can nuke missiles be stopped in situ in mid air ?

[Aragorn2002]

16 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Suppose you're in Putin's shoes when the attack on Kyiv doesn't bring what you expected.. 

What will you do? What can you do?

(Bearing in mind that you're in an unstable state of mind, to say it mildly, and your advisors probably won't tell you what you do not want to hear.)

I fear that escalation, even to the point of tactical nukes, will be his choice.

 

 

 

No tactical nukes, but more fire power and more casualties among Ukrainian civilians for sure. 

But I'm not so sure that everything is going wrong for the Russians. That's wishful thinking. They are not in a hurry and time is on their side. They have large reserves and are fighting in their backyard. That's why NATO has to step in with large arms deliveries and advisors. The time of waiting on the sideline is over.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[DesertFox]

12 minutes ago, Holien said:

Industrial activities? Oil production / Gas flares?

Yes industry. Especially steel production areas light up like a torch on the map

[danfrodo]

I can't believe nukes being discussed and yet it's certainly plausible given Putin's words & imbecilic actions and the corner he might find himself in.  Uh oh.  A week ago my biggest worry was that baseball wouldn't start on time in the US due to owner/player fight, which is a catastrophe, of course.  ANd now nukes?  I guess that puts baseball in perspective.

[danfrodo]

So shelling Kyiv is a war crime, isn't it?  Hasn't been discussed much here but Putin could be labeled war criminal.  Especially if China and India find the backing him or sitting on the fence is worse for them than jumping on the bandwagon.

[keas66]

14 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Suppose you're in Putin's shoes when the attack on Kyiv doesn't bring what you expected.. 

What will you do? What can you do?

(Bearing in mind that you're in an unstable state of mind, to say it mildly, and your advisors probably won't tell you what you do not want to hear.)

I fear that escalation, even to the point of tactical nukes, will be his choice.

 

 

 

I think they claim they are calling off the attacks in the north and north east/west for humanitarian reasons - hold on to the land bridge to Crimea in the South - and claim victory   as well as calling for a ceasefire . Promote the whole thing internally as a massive Victory for the Greater Russian Empire , cremate all the bodies and hide the losses , wait 6 months  for sanctions to lift and the money to flow again . Back to Business as usual . However I do think maybe the image of the Russian Boogieman of a powerful and deadly  conventional force may have been broken for good . They appear to be incompetent and no match for NATO forces in a full on  confrontation .

[Armorgunner]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting post about the truck disguises.  I bet Putin loves the Tansformer movies!

As for the symbols, V is for forces coming out of Belarus.  Z is for forces coming out of Russia.  O is something new as of this morning.  First time I've seen it and not sure what it might be.

Steve

O was seen the first Day of invasion, on troops crossing the border from belarus.

 

[Aragorn2002]

11 minutes ago, keas66 said:

I think they claim they are calling off the attacks in the north and north east/west for humanitarian reasons - hold on to the land bridge to Crimea in the South - and claim victory   as well as calling for a ceasefire . Promote the whole thing internally as a massive Victory for the Greater Russian Empire , cremate all the bodies and hide the losses , wait 6 months  for sanctions to lift and the money to flow again . Back to Business as usual . However I do think maybe the image of the Russian Boogieman of a powerful and deadly  conventional force may have been broken for good . They appear to be incompetent and no match for NATO forces in a full on  confrontation .

I think it's far too early for that kind of optimism. The Russians just started to fight and haven't thrown in their full weight. And what is the situation on the Ukrainian side? How long can they hold on and fight effectively? Will Zelensky be able to avoid being murdered? The coming days will tell. But without massive support from NATO the Ukraine is doomed.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Battlefront.com]

Richard Nixon and Donald Trump both asked about the possibility of using nukes when they ran out of viable options from their point of view.  So yeah, Putin is thinking about it.  He already threatened anybody getting involved with something at least that bad (he didn't say nuke, but it or bio or chemical attacks certainly fit the context).

As someone who has for a few decades studied the collapse of autocracies (almost always in the middle of a crisis of some sort), there is a few common threads to it.  In fact, it's common to any organization run by a bully, be it a corporation, organized crime syndicate, or democracy.

At first nobody wants to rock the boat because the first ones usually get "dismissed" (shot, fired, whatever) very quickly and without much mercy.

As the problem gets worse, especially if valued members of the clique are "dismissed", a second tier of concerned members of the inner circle gets involved in discussions about what to do.

Usually there is some outsiders who aren't in the inner circle but are deeply involved in whatever crisis is going on.  In this case, Russia's security and military services.  They can greatly accelerate the process, either for the good or the bad of the situation by either ratting out people that seem to be waffling or by promising support if they should make a move.

If the crisis comes down to a single decision after enough of this has happened, there may be an implicit or explicit plan in place to deal with it right there and then.  Depending on how bad the situation is, how bad the leader is regarded at this point, and how much support for action is felt in the room... action is taken right there or right after.

What happens at that point is often messy.  Generally the challenge either works relatively bloodlessly or it fails with the conspirators being "dismissed".  Sometimes the leader steps down voluntarily and preserves a cushy life for himself in exchange for calling off the dogs.  Rarely it doesn't go well and you get a bloody conflict that is usually decided fairly quickly.  Even rarer you get a civil war that lasts for a while.

Russia's history is mixed.  The Bolshevik Revolution was horrific.  Several General Secretaries were removed without bloodshed.  The coup against Gorbachev in 1991 was messy but not horrible, both in its initial execution and in the counter to it.  We suspect Putin has survived one specific coup attempt (2014) and probably his paranoia nipped a bunch in the bud.  My guess is he could see himself deposed fairly bloodlessly and put into exile or shoved out a window.

Steve

[Seedorf81]

Just now, Aragorn2002 said:

I think it's far too early for that kind of optimism. The Russians just started to fight. And what is the situation on the Ukrainian side? The coming days will tell.

As I recall Putin's first attack on the Chechens didn't go as expected, but he just brought more and more troops and firepower and destruction to bear. Grozny was completely flattened, but Putin got his victory. He hasn't forgotten that, I think.

[akd]

26 minutes ago, borg said:

Chechens are out of the fight they said . From Twitter -> The feared leader of the Chechen Republic, a constituent of the Russian Federation, say “he does not want to fight against Ukraine.” His forces were considered shock troops and meant to bread terror in Ukraine. He and his forces are out of Russia’s Ukraine war! 

Is this real?

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

O was seen the first Day of invasion, on troops crossing the border from belarus.

Ah, not good.  This most likely is for Belarus forces as there's no point in having two identification marks coming from exactly the same area.

That and the equipment looks old and the rocket launcher is rusty, which shows a lack of maintenance.  I doubt this is Russian first line forces.

I think why we haven't seen more O in Ukraine is that this force went over the border and stopped.  Kinda like making a beachead to ensure it was in firm control of both sides of the border.

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

1 minute ago, Seedorf81 said:

As I recall Putin's first attack on the Chechens didn't go as expected, but he just brought more and more troops and firepower and destruction to bear. Grozny was completely flattened, but Putin got his victory. He hasn't forgotten that, I think.

Exactly. That's what I'm afraid for. Perhaps they underestimated the willingness of the Ukrainians to fight and hoped for a quick and easy victory. Now they know better, so the gloves will be off.

[Thomm]

Twitter: Mass-production of Molotov cocktails being made by Ukrainians who wish deeply to keep the Russians warm.

[Seedorf81]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Richard Nixon and Donald Trump both asked about the possibility of using nukes when they ran out of viable options from their point of view.  So yeah, Putin is thinking about it.  He already threatened anybody getting involved with something at least that bad (he didn't say nuke, but it or bio or chemical attacks certainly fit the context).

As someone who has for a few decades studied the collapse of autocracies (almost always in the middle of a crisis of some sort), there is a few common threads to it.  In fact, it's common to any organization run by a bully, be it a corporation, organized crime syndicate, or democracy.

At first nobody wants to rock the boat because the first ones usually get "dismissed" (shot, fired, whatever) very quickly and without much mercy.

As the problem gets worse, especially if valued members of the clique are "dismissed", a second tier of concerned members of the inner circle gets involved in discussions about what to do.

Usually there is some outsiders who aren't in the inner circle but are deeply involved in whatever crisis is going on.  In this case, Russia's security and military services.  They can greatly accelerate the process, either for the good or the bad of the situation by either ratting out people that seem to be waffling or by promising support if they should make a move.

If the crisis comes down to a single decision after enough of this has happened, there may be an implicit or explicit plan in place to deal with it right there and then.  Depending on how bad the situation is, how bad the leader is regarded at this point, and how much support for action is felt in the room... action is taken right there or right after.

What happens at that point is often messy.  Generally the challenge either works relatively bloodlessly or it fails with the conspirators being "dismissed".  Sometimes the leader steps down voluntarily and preserves a cushy life for himself in exchange for calling off the dogs.  Rarely it doesn't go well and you get a bloody conflict that is usually decided fairly quickly.  Even rarer you get a civil war that lasts for a while.

Russia's history is mixed.  The Bolshevik Revolution was horrific.  Several General Secretaries were removed without bloodshed.  The coup against Gorbachev in 1991 was messy but not horrible, both in its initial execution and in the counter to it.  We suspect Putin has survived one specific coup attempt (2014) and probably his paranoia nipped a bunch in the bud.  My guess is he could see himself deposed fairly bloodlessly and put into exile or shoved out a window.

Steve

It may be a little naive, but I hope that the Russian people (youth/mothers?) will finally come out of it's - historically understandable - lethargy, and rise up in such numbers that they will overthrow Putin and his cronies.

But I remember also how Hitler could evade the numerous attempt to kill him, or remove him from power.

[BeondTheGrave]

48 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Did I miss anything?  Seriously, jump in.

Seems pretty spot on to me. Operationally it seems that the priority of Russian operational axes on day 1 were:

1 Kiev

2 Kharkov

3 Crimea

4 Donbas

With either 1 or 2 flipping in priority depending on how you read western Day 0 intel, which suggested that Kharkov was the main axis of advance (remember that? Boy it feels like forever ago). But at the end of Day 1 it turns out that while the Kiev offensive was the most promising, neither the Kharkov nor Donbass attacks seem to have done the desired job, unless the desired job was just to pin forces in place for a deeper encirclement. The southern front had seemed to be a major hole in Ukrainian forces. But on day two a breakthrough on either the Kharkov of Donbas axes failed to materialize. The promising southern offensive also seemed to bog down despite initial progress as Russian troops were confined to heavily pressurized bridgeheads. The Crimea axis seems to be suffering from a bit of operational overambition as well. Is it a pincer arm to pressure Kiev and cut the country in two? Or should it go east to grab coastal territory and release forces in the Donbas? Or west to begin to push up on the border regions? Now it seems paralyzed.

Regardless from midday day 2 till now it seems that Kiev has become the main and sole axis of advance for Russian troops. Operations around the country remained stymied while logistics has become a serious issue across the front. Except, it seems, around Kiev. Reinforcements also seem to be pouring in that direction (though I have heard about troop movements around Belgorod/Kharkov if true could it be the appearance of the dreaded 2nd Guard's Motor Rifle division and its T-90s?) Likely the first phase of the war will be decided in Kiev where, frustratingly for the Russians, it now seems the population has been totally mobilized against the invader. 

Of course the end of the first phase, regardless of who wins it, will now probably not mean an end to the war. At this point Ukraine has had too much time to mobilize. The second phase promises to be just as bloody as the first. 

[BeondTheGrave]

Also

 

Selected SWIFT decoupling. I suspect though, as someone many pages ago suggested, when images of TOS-1 launchers firing against Ukrainian civilians hits the airwaves "selected Russian banks" will turn in to "all Russian banks." The Russian-style 'Shock and Awe' approach is not easy on an urban environment. 

The whole thing makes me marvel at just how sophisticated the US Army really is. Damn those guys are slick. Sorry for my moment of patriotic nostalgia. 

[Seedorf81]

25 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Exactly. That's what I'm afraid for. Perhaps they underestimated the willingness of the Ukrainians to fight and hoped for a quick and easy victory. Now they know better, so the gloves will be off.

Yes, I agree.

And to be honest, maybe I would do the same, if I were him.

Empathy is understanding someone's actions/behaviour, without condoning or agreeing.

I would certainly not agree with Putin getting in a state of mind like: "WTF, who the bloody h#ll do those Ukrainians and Nato-f#$kers think they are?? I will show them what I am made off!!", but I can understand that it would be his train of thought.

That is the worrying part..

Edited February 26, 2022 by Seedorf81
spelling

[Phantom Captain]

Honestly, I am getting really angry at the voices in the US, political voices, speaking in support of Putin and Russia.  It's shameful, anti-democratic and disgusting.  

I dread to think what the people of Ukraine, fighting for their very lives and land now, will think when the see and hear this garbage.

I'm not trying to get into US politics but am just thinking existentially.  Not trying to cross any lines.

I'm extremely happy in the fact that it appears our intelligence services are still top notch and performing remarkably despite all the scorn heaped on them in the recent past.