How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

11 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Putin surely wants the Baltic states back in his empire, just like he wants Ukraine.  But how insane would it be for him to even try?  He'd get smashed.  Euro/US states could mass some really high quality, super deadly forces before he's massed his invasion force.  So how could he pull it off?  We'd see it coming and be very well prepared.  If he put the whole russian military up there he'd make some progress, but in not very long the force would be degraded beyond offensive capabilities and would be out of supplies, which are burning on the roads behind the front. 

Of course, Putin's not looking like the most rational actor at the moment, so you are probably right

Well, Dan, even I don't expect Putin to attack a NATO  country, but he will try to destabilize the Baltic states and make life as hard as possible for them, making use of the Russian minorities there. I have the impression Putin enjoys that kind of dangerous games, same as he enjoys scaring Western Europe. A dictator needs an enemy to keep his people behind him, so Putin has a lot to gain from a new cold war.

Apart from that NATO will be forced to spread it's forces from the Black Sea to the Baltic Sea. More or less the same situation the Germans faced in the late summer of 1944. 

Edited February 26, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Holien]

1 minute ago, db_zero said:

Hearing that large contingents of Chechen fighters are heading to Ukraine to assist Russia. These include "shock troops"

Doesn't surprise me. There are reports of supply and morale issues with Russian units. Don't know how good these Chechen fighters are, but I would guess they have some combat experience.

If that's true their doubling down.

[Sarjen]

3 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Hearing that large contingents of Chechen fighters are heading to Ukraine to assist Russia. These include "shock troops"

Doesn't surprise me. There are reports of supply and morale issues with Russian units. Don't know how good these Chechen fighters are, but I would guess they have some combat experience.

They are already fighting. 

[Aragorn2002]

War and rumours...

But trust Putin to have a whole series of nasty surprises in store for us. 

Edited February 26, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[DesertFox]

9 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Aw c'mon fellas.  You know us americans don't speak no euro stuff.  Translation?  If you're gonna post, ya gotta share

Jemanden zum Jagen tragen müssen - lit. someone has to be carried to the hunt - meaning someone does need to be asked twice about something

[akd]

Reports of fighting deep in Kyiv now.

[DesertFox]

[danfrodo]

19 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Well, Dan, even I don't expect Putin to attack a NATO  country, but he will try to destabilize the Baltic states and make life as hard as possible for them, making use of the Russian minorities there. I have the impression Putin enjoys that kind of dangerous games, same as he enjoys scaring Western Europe. A dictator needs an enemy to keep his people behind him, so Putin has a lot to gain from a new cold war.

Apart from that NATO will be forced to spread it's forces from the Black Sea to the Baltic Sea. More or less the same situation the Germans faced in the late summer of 1944. 

Ahhhh, I see.  Yeah, that sounds likely.

[BeondTheGrave]

Regarding petrol:

 

also note the unusual V symbol. 

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

also note the unusual V symbol. 

Interesting post about the truck disguises.  I bet Putin loves the Tansformer movies!

As for the symbols, V is for forces coming out of Belarus.  Z is for forces coming out of Russia.  O is something new as of this morning.  First time I've seen it and not sure what it might be.

Steve

[BeondTheGrave]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

As for the symbols, V is for forces coming out of Belarus.  Z is for forces coming out of Russia.  O is something new as of this morning.  First time I've seen it and not sure what it might be.

Hadn't see that info, good to know. Is O Crimea/Donbass troops? 

[borg]

Chechen ?

[Battlefront.com]

Dead Chechens were reported earlier today.  This comes one (I think it was yesterday!) day after a parade gathering of Chechen fighters in front of Kadyrov.  Not surprised to have them show up, though I figured they would be sent to the pre-war Donbas front.  It was a surprise to see them coming in north of there.

As for their fighting ability.  Well, l bravado they have in spades.  Skills?  I don't know what this batch is like, but the previous Chechens that fought in Donbas didn't make a favorable impression.  In particular was their first encounter at the Donetsk airport.  They were slaughtered.  Pictures showed them getting mowed down and then pictures after showed their bodies stacked three high in the backs of large trucks.

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

12 minutes ago, borg said:

Chechen ?

License to kill?

Edited February 26, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[db_zero]

China is watching this closely. Wonder if their assumptions about taking Taiwan with a sea/air assault and subsequent movement through some very difficult mountainous through highways covered by dense jungle and surrounded by cliffs, with bridges, choke points and caves is going to change.

and once they get through all that take very modern and stoutly constructed urban centers.

Edited February 26, 2022 by db_zero

[borg]

Seems sirens blaring again in Kyiv. Let’s see ‍ 

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, db_zero said:

China is watching this closely. Wonder if their assumptions about taking Taiwan with a sea/air assault and subsequent movement through some very difficult mountainous through highways covered by dense jungle and surrounded by cliffs, with bridges, choke points and caves is going to change.

and once they get through all that take very modern and stoutly constructed urban centers.

and in the end China wins a big prize: a super hostile population and a country with wrecked infrastructure and economy.  And if it all goes badly could lead to popular uprising against Chinese leadership, again w possibility of hanging from a  a lamp post.  Seems totally worth it to me, I'd definitely risk my dictatorship and insanely lucrative and powerful life over that.  Makes total sense. 

Spain's Franco, evil m-f-er, did get one thing right: the only thing that was gonna unseat him was getting involved on the wrong side of WW2.  And so he festered like a giant, disgusting tumor on spain for three more long decades.

[akd]

“V” marked armor arriving at Brest on border with Poland:

 

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, db_zero said:

China is watching this closely. Wonder if their assumptions about taking Taiwan with a sea/air assault and subsequent movement through some very difficult mountainous through highways covered by dense jungle and surrounded by cliffs, with bridges, choke points and caves is going to change.

and once they get through all that take very modern and stoutly constructed urban centers.

It would be Fascinating to know what Xi is thinking. I think we can assume he is incandescently angry at Putin for being completely incompetent. I Shudder to think about the readiness inspections, and audits the Chinese military is about to go thru. I suspect that keeping phantom troops on the payroll, and many other forms of military/industrial complex corruption just became a shooting offense, maybe worse than that.

[The_Capt]

So it is about 11 pm in Kyiv so let's summarize day 3 of this nasty bit of business.  If I miss anything feel free to jump in. [aside: people will recall when Iran shot down that Ukrainian airliner (just weird) how a bunch of internet nerds figured out where the shooter were before western intel did, well this little thread is doing one bang up job of intel analysis so I wanna try and capture that].

Caveat - this assessment is based on unclassified open source intelligence, much of it unverified or unverifiable at this time.

Strategic Level:  While the strategic causes of this military action by Russia remain vague and unconfirmed (i.e. I still have not seen a reason "why now" beyond "why not"), the overall most likely strategic objective is the total defeat of Ukraine as a nation, followed by installation of a puppet regime as a demonstration to NATO and western powers of Russian power in the region. 

The overall Russian strategy in this action was to overwhelm the Ukrainian forces quickly with a knockout blow aimed at Kyiv designed to break the will of Ukrainian resistance.  It appears that this objective was in a 48-72 hour window, other strategic objectives are largely unknow at this time (?).  One of the biggest strategic unknowns at this time is the overall will of the Russian people to continue to prosecute this war, current Russian leadership likely remain fully committed and short of a regime change will not likely voluntarily pull out.

Over the last 72 hours Europe and the West appear to have solidified their stance on this war with respect to increasing sanctions and military support to the Ukraine.  China and India remain two global powers who have not engaged in punitive measures against Russia, nor have they provided direct support to Ukraine. Another unknown at this time is whether Turkey will close the Black Sea to additional Russian maritime forces.  

It is clear that outside Russia, at least, Russia has not managed to control the strategic narrative for this war nor have dis/mis information campaigns been effective widening divisions in Western responses.  In fact the opposite appear to be true as this action has created unity in NATO and the European community, at least in the short term.

Operational Level:

- As of 72 hours into the war there is evidence that Russia has not achieved air superiority, information/cyber superiority, decision superiority or effectively eroded the Ukrainian infrastructure (military or civilian) or power centers of gravity at the operational or tactical level.  Russian advances on a multi-pronged assault have made modest gains however it appears that some lines of advance may have stalled. 

- Russian casualties are likely high (again very hard to get specifics) or at least higher than expected.

- There are indications that Russian logistical systems have failed in some locations, whether this is an indicator of isolated issues or a broader issue remains unknown.  Evidence of fuel shortages has been presented suggesting disruption in operational LOCs

- Russian forces are currently of questionable quality along some axis of advance at least based on captured POWs.  Further based on largely anecdotal evidence, it appears that Russia has not employed a form of Mission Command, nor really provided any detailed SA to some Russian tactical units (again based on POW interviews).

- Latest reports are that heavy concentrations of artillery are forming one the outskirts of Kyiv, which could signal a shift in strategy from a "knock out maneuver" toward a more "shock and awe" approach, or the Russians have essentially opted for an attritional approach to Kyiv at least. 

- Ukrainian forces have demonstrated a level of lethality and coordination beyond expectations of open source analysts and likely Russian planners.  How much of this is do to outside support and how much is due to Russian setback remains unclear.  

Tactical:

- Ukrainian forces have broadcast examples of both ambush and deep strike, the role of specific military capability remains vague.   The effectiveness next gen ATGM systems and MANPADs remains unknown but reported high armored vehicle casualties indicate they have been effective.

Overall Summary:  As of the first 72 hours of the war, it appears that the Russian military has overestimated its own capabilities and/or the capabilities of Ukrainian resistance and has not likely met the timelines it had set during pre-war planning.  The assessment is that the next 24-48 hours will be critical in the outcome of this war and if Russian forces are not about to take Kyiv and inflict some serious damage to the Ukrainian people's will, their own strategic center of gravity will become more vulnerable. 

Did I miss anything?  Seriously, jump in.

[TheVulture]

5 minutes ago, db_zero said:

China is watching this closely. Wonder if their assumptions about taking Taiwan with a sea/air assault and subsequent movement through some very difficult mountainous through highways covered by dense jungle and surrounded by cliffs, with bridges, choke points and caves is going to change.

and once they get through all that take very modern and stoutly constructed urban centers.

I think China is a long way from being able to launch an invasion of Taiwan. Opposed amphibious landings are about as tough a job as you can get, and China doesn't have the naval force or the experience to pull it off yet. They'd almost certainly have to attack smaller Taiwanese islands first in the preceeding months to build up the expertise of managing that kind of operation, and they are many years from having the ability to force US carrier groups to stay out of the area to have a hope of giving themselves enough security to manage a landing, never mind support the logistical trail across the strait of Taiwan to maintain an offensive.

[Holien]

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:24hrs;@33.9,48.6,7z

This might be of interest it shows fires and is being used to show where combat is occurring, not sure if this has been posted previously? A bit too close to thread title. 

[Battlefront.com]

Someone pointed out that Russia's justification for liberating a wayward province was counter balanced by saying provinces (DPR/LPR) have the right to declare independence and be recognized as sovereign states.  A contradiction that China is probably not happy to have Russia drawing attention to.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Holien said:

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:24hrs;@33.9,48.6,7z

This might be of interest it shows fires and is being used to show where combat is occurring, not sure if this has been posted previously? A bit too close to thread title. 

Looks like the war has spread to Moldova and Romania!  That's not good

Steve

[Holien]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Looks like the war has spread to Moldova and Romania!  That's not good

Steve

Industrial activities? Oil production / Gas flares?