How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Bulletpoint]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Another column of abandoned Russian Grads. Probably out of fuel and abandoned

PS. If yoy see a snow on the photos -this is Kharkiv and partially Sumy oblasts

I'm completely baffled that Russian vehicles would be left to run out of fuel like this.. We're not talking the end of WW2 here, but a war that has been going on for three days now, less than 100 km from the Russian border in some places. How is it possible for a modern army of a powerful country like Russia to have such poor logistics? After preparing for the war for a year now?

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm completely baffled that Russian vehicles would be left to run out of fuel like this.. We're not talking the end of WW2 here, but a war that has been going on for three days now, less than 100 km from the Russian border in some places. How is it possible for a modern army of a powerful country like Russia to have such poor logistics? After preparing for the war for a year now?

You assume it will be over in 48 hours?

CM has taught us all that any combat scenario is going to be ten times harder than we assume.

 

[Battlefront.com]

People have focused too much on the total amount of Russian forces that can be brought into the fight.  Ukraine doesn't have to defeat 190,000 Russians, it only has to significant degrade the first line forces in the initial attack.  If it can do that, the Russian attack will ultimately fail.  Let me break that down a bit.

From my vantage point the first wave, roughly 1/3rd of the total ground force, was supposed to knock out most of the organized Ukrainian resistance.  The second 1/3rd was to mop up, the final third was designed for occupation.  The quality of each of these three forces, as well as their equipment allocations, was tailored to their task.  Best first, next best second, worst third. 

20% casualties is probably enough to cause a serious degradation of combat effectiveness.  Especially for the difficult task of attacking a determined enemy.  This means Ukraine only has to cause about 12,000 soldiers in the first wave to no longer be combat effective.  Even lightly wounded matters because of the compressed time period of this war.  Meaning, taking a Russian soldier out of combat for 2-4 days is almost as good as killing him outright from a battlefield standpoint.

Currently the Ukrainians are estimating they've caused about 3000 KIA Russians.  This could be inflated, could actually be an under count.  Let's assume it is off by a factor of 2 and they have only killed 1500.  Roughly speaking, one can expect 3-4 times that number wounded.  Going with 3, that means about 4500 wounded.  Ad to the 1500 KIA and you have 6000, which is half way to the 12,000 tipping point.

This is all rough math.  The Russian attack is divided up into three primary efforts, each with its own 1st line units.  They can not be shifted between efforts, so if one effort experiences a huge hit to effectiveness then that entire effort is probably permanently degraded.  The second wave can't make up for shortcomings of the first wave unless the defenders are nearly spent.  The third wave is useless.

As of today, the war is going pretty badly for the Russians.  What they most likely planned on achieving by the middle or end of the first day has not been achieved even by the third day.  Not even close.  I could go into more detail about that, but this post is already long enough.

I expect this war will be decided by tomorrow at the latest. 

The war, however, will last only so long as Putin keeps it going or he is deposed by someone who will end it.

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Another column of abandoned Russian Grads. Probably out of fuel and abandoned

PS. If yoy see a snow on the photos -this is Kharkiv and partially Sumy oblasts

Light them.

[CHEqTRO]

4 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm completely baffled that Russian vehicles would be left to run out of fuel like this.. We're not talking the end of WW2 here, but a war that has been going on for three days now, less than 100 km from the Russian border in some places. How is it possible for a modern army of a powerful country like Russia to have such poor logistics? After preparing for the war for a year now?

If we go by the thread that I posted earlier, it seems that the decision from the Biden administration of publishing the date of the start of military operations actually paralized decision making for some time, and delayed the invasion. During that time, the forces deployed on the border actually ate up their supplies. Hence their poor logistical situation

[akd]

Ukrainian civilians trying to stop Russian tank column.  “O” appears to be another tactical symbol in use.

 

[sawomi]

37 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

...fairly easy to predict.

John Mearsheimer in 2015:

 

[Haiduk]

GRAPHIC VIDEO!!!! 

Another destroyed new Russian vehicle BTR-MDM of airborne troops and dead crew. Some in comment claims it near Kahovka, Kherson oblast

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1497594437148491781?cxt=HHwWioCyvZeNw8gpAAAA

 

Edited February 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, akd said:

Ukrainian civilians trying to stop Russian tank column.  “O” appears to be another tactical symbol in use.

 

Wow, well that seems to hint at the whole "will they resist for the long haul" pretty well.

[Aragorn2002]

4 minutes ago, sawomi said:

John Mearsheimer in 2015:

 

Rather naive. No matter what Ukraine would have done, Putin would have invaded sooner or later.

[Haiduk]

One of the reasons why Russians can't supply itself enough with a fuel. Civilian throws a molotov in the tanker

 

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

From my vantage point the first wave, roughly 1/3rd of the total ground force, was supposed to knock out most of the organized Ukrainian resistance.  The second 1/3rd was to mop up, the final third was designed for occupation.  The quality of each of these three forces, as well as their equipment allocations, was tailored to their task.  Best first, next best second, worst third.

I suspect you are right on this one.  If so this is hubris and just bad military planning.  1st wave is find and fix, 2nd is finish, 3rd is exploit...that was Soviet doctrine.

I am starting to wonder if our standard force ratio calcs are in need of a re-look.

I think the character of this war will be decided by Mon morning.  The Russian blitzkrieg is definitely starting to look less likely but day ain't over yet.  So we could be talking slow grinding grudge match, if so that is not in Russian favour at all. 

[akd]

Battle at crossroads near Ivankov (UKR soldier with NLAW):

 

[arkhangelsk2021]

19 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm completely baffled that Russian vehicles would be left to run out of fuel like this.. We're not talking the end of WW2 here, but a war that has been going on for three days now, less than 100 km from the Russian border in some places. How is it possible for a modern army of a powerful country like Russia to have such poor logistics? After preparing for the war for a year now?

If I have to guess, the whole "Biden kicked things back" part might have explained the difficulties in maintaining food levels, but the vehicles were basically static and so the fuel should still be in the tanks. I'd suspect that some units decided they won't be entering Ukraine and just embezzled the gas for money (perhaps to buy food).

[BFCElvis]

On 2/24/2022 at 12:18 PM, BFCElvis said:

Correct. Frankly, I think this is an important thread. So, I am loath to lock it. If people start going down that road I will just give them short vacations from posting, without prior warning, rather than lock it. 

I've had to issue some more vacations this morning. As I said the other day, I will give short bans without warning. Please keep things cool. If you think that you are about to post something that might be crossing the line, even a little, then don't post it. Gotta keep a very short leash on this one, if we're going to keep the thread alive.  It will be far too easy to go off the rails.

[Bulletpoint]

15 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

If we go by the thread that I posted earlier, it seems that the decision from the Biden administration of publishing the date of the start of military operations actually paralized decision making for some time, and delayed the invasion. During that time, the forces deployed on the border actually ate up their supplies. Hence their poor logistical situation

This could explain a lack of food, but unless Russian tanks run on vodka, I don't see how waiting some more time on the border would make them lack fuel after two days..

[Chibot Mk IX]

15 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm completely baffled that Russian vehicles would be left to run out of fuel like this.. We're not talking the end of WW2 here, but a war that has been going on for three days now, less than 100 km from the Russian border in some places. How is it possible for a modern army of a powerful country like Russia to have such poor logistics? After preparing for the war for a year now?

Guess the BTG--Army organization structure has a huge problem for any operation deeper than 50km.  in old Bn-Regt-Div-Army structure, Bn draw supply from Regt/Div, who in turn get their supply from Army. The Army HQ only has to take care of a couple request. Now you have 15-20 BTG commander request re-supply at different location simultaneously. That is a nightmare from Administration point of view. To make the situation worse is who is RESPONSIBLE to protect the 15-20 supply conveys?  Traffic jam could easily happen with so many conveys moving on road. Should the supply has the higher priority or move the troops forward has the higher priority?

 

I feel bad for those Russian staff officers in Army HQ .  

[BeondTheGrave]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am starting to wonder if our standard force ratio calcs are in need of a re-look.

This has come up in other threads in other contexts, but I suspect in hindsight Donn Starry's claims about force ratios will prove to be accurate. Within the 3:1-1:3 bracket force ratios dont matter much, individual actions and tactical decisions on the spot are more important. I wouldn't be surprised if we hear stories in the next few months of a half dozen Zvika Greengolds who held the pass against Russian attacks. If that Twitter thread about fragmented Russian BCT operations is accurate, it seems to me like most of these units are going in without proper support and without an overwhelming numerical advantage. Two Ukrainian platoons would probably place them within the 3:1 ratio against a Coy (+) element of a BCT. 

[BeondTheGrave]

3 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

Guess the BTG--Army organization structure has a huge problem for any operation deeper than 50km.  in old Bn-Regt-Div-Army structure, Bn draw supply from Regt/Div, who in turn get their supply from Army. The Army HQ only has to take care of a couple request. Now you have 15-20 BTG commander request re-supply at different location simultaneously. That is a nightmare from Administration point of view. To make the situation worse is who is RESPONSIBLE to protect the 15-20 supply conveys?  Traffic jam could easily happen with so many conveys moving on road. Should the supply has the higher priority or move the troops forward has the higher priority?

 

I feel bad for those Russian staff officers in Army HQ .  

Very interesting observation. How is this handled within the US Army, from those who know? 

It would seem to me that IT would help to solve some of the administrative hurdles, but isn't that something that Russia and the Russian Army really struggles with? 

[Aragorn2002]

57 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

Anybody that thinks Putin has a reasonable list of demands should go back and look at the "reasonable" demands made by Hitler.  Those demands were not reasonable and they were only the tip of the iceberg.  The real motivations for taking over its neighbor were vastly more involved than that.  If you don't understand the real motivations, you can't understand much of anything.

Steve

Exactly.

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Bulletpoint]

8 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

Guess the BTG--Army organization structure has a huge problem for any operation deeper than 50km.  in old Bn-Regt-Div-Army structure, Bn draw supply from Regt/Div, who in turn get their supply from Army. The Army HQ only has to take care of a couple request. Now you have 15-20 BTG commander request re-supply at different location simultaneously. That is a nightmare from Administration point of view. To make the situation worse is who is RESPONSIBLE to protect the 15-20 supply conveys?  Traffic jam could easily happen with so many conveys moving on road. Should the supply has the higher priority or move the troops forward has the higher priority?

 

I feel bad for those Russian staff officers in Army HQ .  

This could explain it, but then again, surely this obvious problem would have been apparent to Russian military planners?

Also, haven't the Russians fought other wars with this BTG system in place?

[Phantom Captain]

3 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

Is he denying that they knew they were in Ukraine?  

 

[Aragorn2002]

14 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

Guess the BTG--Army organization structure has a huge problem for any operation deeper than 50km.  in old Bn-Regt-Div-Army structure, Bn draw supply from Regt/Div, who in turn get their supply from Army. The Army HQ only has to take care of a couple request. Now you have 15-20 BTG commander request re-supply at different location simultaneously. That is a nightmare from Administration point of view. To make the situation worse is who is RESPONSIBLE to protect the 15-20 supply conveys?  Traffic jam could easily happen with so many conveys moving on road. Should the supply has the higher priority or move the troops forward has the higher priority?

 

I feel bad for those Russian staff officers in Army HQ .  

You what?

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, Phantom Captain said:

Is he denying that they knew they were in Ukraine?  

 

It is not the only hint that russian soldiers don´t know what they are sent to and why...