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China vs Taiwan please?


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  • 8 months later...

There's a US Navy tracking ship coming down here now: https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/chinese-aircraft-ships-and-drones-08072022032215.html The PLA have announced they're going to continue exercises in the Yellow Sea after finishing up around Taiwan, which appears to be a flex at South Korea and perhaps Japan. It's pretty clear they aim to control all the seas in East Asia and create some kind of exclusive buffer zone in the western Pacific.

I wonder if the US or any other quad navies will continue FONOPs in the South China Sea? I fear the latest exercises are designed to discourage any future FONOPs in the Taiwan strait at least.

Meanwhile AP is reporting that ROCA will be doing live fire drills next week: https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-world-news-china-beijing-nancy-pelosi-b42328e264f779a5ef180ca589f84114

Here's a propaganda video from the Taiwan ministry of defense for father's day.

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PLAAF and RoC have had some pretty substantial air battles over the last 70 years.  All types of Migs mixing it up with F-86s, F-104s, etc.  There have been naval clashes, artillery duels, etc.  While not Gulf War scale, RoC has held its own and managed to use that experience to build a better military.  I think any invasion would play out similar to Russia-Ukraine.  China would take big losses just crossing the sea.  China would eventually win if the west doesn't intervene, but it would wreck both economies beyond short-term recovery.

I'll also go back to my standby statement...China needs the West more than we need them.  They can't feed themselves.  And will likely not be self-sufficient in energy in the short-term.  Add to that that Taiwan investment in China is fairly substantial by itself.  Taiwan is connected to a very large portion of the world's semicon production, but not its design.  That is still the US and the EU. 

You can play a lot of this out in Command: Modern Operations.  There are a bunch of scenarios built around it.  

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17 hours ago, Thewood1 said:

PLAAF and RoC have had some pretty substantial air battles over the last 70 years.  All types of Migs mixing it up with F-86s, F-104s, etc.  There have been naval clashes, artillery duels, etc.  While not Gulf War scale, RoC has held its own and managed to use that experience to build a better military.  I think any invasion would play out similar to Russia-Ukraine.  China would take big losses just crossing the sea.  China would eventually win if the west doesn't intervene, but it would wreck both economies beyond short-term recovery.

I'll also go back to my standby statement...China needs the West more than we need them.  They can't feed themselves.  And will likely not be self-sufficient in energy in the short-term.  Add to that that Taiwan investment in China is fairly substantial by itself.  Taiwan is connected to a very large portion of the world's semicon production, but not its design.  That is still the US and the EU. 

You can play a lot of this out in Command: Modern Operations.  There are a bunch of scenarios built around it.  

Good post. Completely agree.

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Just reposting the links @cesmonkey shared on the Ukraine thread over here so that we have a central place to keep track of what's happening and what may happen around Taiwan.

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

Somewhat off-topic, but then, a lot of things on this thread are ...

Several newspapers reported on recent wargames conducted by CSIS in Washington D.C. on what might happen in an invasion of Taiwan by China.  Below is a link to one of the articles that is not behind a pay wall:

What-if war game maps huge toll of a future US-China war over Taiwan
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2022/08/11/2003783337

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/08/china-taiwan-tensions-flare-us-faces-shrinking-window-deter-conflict/375514/

https://breakingdefense.com/2022/08/a-bloody-mess-with-terrible-loss-of-life-how-a-china-us-conflict-over-taiwan-could-play-out/

Also it's worth noting that the CSIS link @LongLeftFlank posted (and then I mistakenly reposted in a dupe) is a living breathing page that has been updated with new data several times over the past week or so. Here it is again: https://chinapower.csis.org/tracking-the-fourth-taiwan-strait-crisis/

 

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While a work of fiction, "2034 - A novel of the next World War" is worryingly prescient re what is going on (altho' perhaps set 10 years too far in the future). 

The only big difference is that the book posits that China would make the first move, not Russia.  Easy and quick to to read... recommended.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 8/28/2022 at 1:33 AM, alison said:

Just noticed Perun is finally starting a series on China:

 

Excellent, many thanks!

China is not at the end of its modernisation drive: it's in the middle.

...Lack of recent warfighting experience and the fact that China's best and brightest (with exceptions) do NOT choose a military career (in spite of recent PLA pay rises noted by Perun toward the end) are two key open questions of course.

Dieu n’est pas pour les gros bataillons, mais pour ceux qui tirent le mieux

Edited by LongLeftFlank
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  • 2 weeks later...

https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/not-so-fast-insights-from-a-1944-war-help-explain-why-invading-taiwan-is-a-costly-gamble/

This piece is not as strong as it could be, as it's in far too much hurry to draw parallels to today and doesn't give nearly enough meat on the CAUSEWAY plan, which included taking the mainland port of Amoy (Xiamen) as well as southern (at least) Formosa. The actual 1944 study is available here.

Still:

Planners concluded that the geography made it necessary to establish a lodgment on the southern tip of the island... The staff estimated it would take over 90 days just to build up enough combat power [to advance].... 

Jensen2.jpg

The West Coast shoreline is mostly non-trafficable soil. Mudflats and sand bars render landings impractical except at [towns].

One [III] amphibous corps of two Marine divisions and one infantry division and one [XXIV] Army corps of three infantry divisions, capture, occupy, defend and develop the western coastal plain of FORMOSA as far north as the SOBUNEKKEI RIVER.

Lagoons and marshy areas inland constitute an obstacle to advance from these beaches.

Short form:  even taking into account the greatly modernised infrastructure of Taiwan today, a force moving south to north along the populated western plain faces an endless series of natural barriers: streams and paddies and agricultural ponds. These same streams create deep defiles in the mountains, making north-south advance along the interior 'spine' even harder.  Near impossible for large units, in fact.

A PLA advance up from Kaohsiung to Taipei would be a slow, tough slog. There is no mechanised 'breakout' to be had from a beachhead, even assuming one was secured and supplied.

Edited by LongLeftFlank
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  • 1 month later...

https://asiatimes.com/2022/10/sayonara-okinawa-us-is-sending-its-f-15s-home/

Meanwhile, the US Air Force has announced it will support Kadena with rotational squadrons of fighter aircraft. The first will be F-22s coming to Kadena from Alaska; they will stay at Kadena for six months.

https://asiatimes.com/2022/10/us-taiwan-arms-production-plan-seeks-to-deter-china/

Taiwan-Arms-Weapons-Military.jpeg?w=1400

This May, Taiwan announced a years-long delay for the delivery of 40 US M109A6 Paladin self-propelled howitzers, pushing back the delivery date from 2023 to 2026. Apart from those big guns, in the same month, the Taiwan Defense Ministry also announced that the US may delay a shipment of Stinger man-portable anti-aircraft missiles until 2026.

...the price for Taiwan’s first batch of 11 HIMARS multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS), which have been used with devastating effect in Ukraine, has increased by US$12.5 million, with delivery starting in 2024. The first batch of 11 HIMARS launchers was initially priced at $300.9 million but the price tag has since bulged to $313.3 million

Edited by LongLeftFlank
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