China vs Taiwan please?

[db_zero]

On 11/19/2021 at 8:58 AM, Bil Hardenberger said:

GMT games has a boardgame game on this subject:  Next War Taiwan (there is also a Vassal module)... I am looking at it right now in our office bookcase where we keep our wargame collection.  As @The_Capt says though.. this is a very sensitive subject, fascinating, but sensitive.

Bil

Don't know if you already purchased or have kept up. I was recently looking at this. I just got back into board wargaming when a friend mentioned he wanted to play board wargames so I decided to jump back in. I was dismayed at what people were asking for a used copy.

Upon further investigation I saw on GMT website they are going to make updated reprints that take into accounts changes since the original was produced in 2015. Its a P500 edition and they already have more than 500 pledges. If you pledge you can get at discounted price. No estimate on when they will actually start sending out new editions.

Flashpoint South China Seas was recently released. Looks more focused on the diplomatic and geopolitical aspects. Sort of reminds me of a Twilight Struggle sort of game. I'll probably pick up.

[Ithikial_AU]

8 hours ago, db_zero said:

Upon further investigation I saw on GMT website they are going to make updated reprints that take into accounts changes since the original was produced in 2015. Its a P500 edition and they already have more than 500 pledges. If you pledge you can get at discounted price. No estimate on when they will actually start sending out new editions.

I'm slowly collecting them as they go through re-prints. One of my armchair general goals after winning lotto and retiring early is to first get the hang of playing the system, but then play out a large multi-game war of this series. The new combined game rules as part of Supplement #4 will probably take this further. Sadly a lack of time is the big barrier, but also my local wargaming mates are more interested in miniatures rather than hex and counter systems.

But yeah the rule system looks good.

I'm guessing @Bil Hardenberger had the opportunity to try out combining the games?   

[Bulletpoint]

On 2/7/2023 at 4:48 PM, Probus said:

The USA/West can’t let Taiwan fall. Put simply, it would cause or risk a domino effect (of future invasions) that would not be acceptable. 

Isn't this the exact argument that led to the Vietnam War?

[chuckdyke]

Taiwan would put China as one of the leaders of high-tech technology. 

[db_zero]

6 hours ago, Ithikial_AU said:

I'm slowly collecting them as they go through re-prints. One of my armchair general goals after winning lotto and retiring early is to first get the hang of playing the system, but then play out a large multi-game war of this series. The new combined game rules as part of Supplement #4 will probably take this further. Sadly a lack of time is the big barrier, but also my local wargaming mates are more interested in miniatures rather than hex and counter systems.

But yeah the rule system looks good.

I'm guessing @Bil Hardenberger had the opportunity to try out combining the games?   

I signed up for the P500 reprint of Combat Commander. I started collecting games. Seems like their value hold up or increases over time. Some of the games I owned when I was into board war gaming are worth $$$ on EBay.

I’m now learning Empire of the Sun. I also bought Pacific War and The Third World War reprints as well as other stuff on EBay. 

Seems like vassal is the way to go if you want to play other people. Finding players nearby is a challenge. I went to a local board gaming get together and they were into the the newer Eurogame type of games.

a lot of the newer wargames have good solitaire playability and some have bots for solitaire play. I’m having a lot of fun with Warfighter which is primarily a solitaire game.

I’ve been playing a lot of Undaunted with my wargaming friend. Eventually we’ll get to Empire of the Sun. Don’t know if Pacific War or The Third World War will be doable for him.
 

It would also have to be on vassal for space reasons too. 

[db_zero]

A blockade of Taiwan in the future seems more plausible than outright invasion. 

Recently elements in the US have questioned involvement in Ukraine and if it continues and gets stronger could be interpreted as weakness and unwillingness to get involved in Taiwan.

Right now the battle is over Tic Tok. I have strong feelings and beliefs of the privacy, security and influence of social media apps and the companies behind them all-US as well as foreign owned.
 

Ive found my life is far better once I deleted all social media apps. ymmv. Unfortunately the youth as well as others are hooked on it. 
 In China where all media is tightly controlled they impose very strict limits on social media usage by youths as they deem it harmful, yet are happy to spoon feed it to the rest of the world.

 

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, db_zero said:

A blockade of Taiwan in the future seems more plausible than outright invasion. 

Recently elements in the US have questioned involvement in Ukraine and if it continues and gets stronger could be interpreted as weakness and unwillingness to get involved in Taiwan.

Right now the battle is over Tic Tok. I have strong feelings and beliefs of the privacy, security and influence of social media apps and the companies behind them all-US as well as foreign owned.
 

Ive found my life is far better once I deleted all social media apps. ymmv. Unfortunately the youth as well as others are hooked on it. 
 In China where all media is tightly controlled they impose very strict limits on social media usage by youths as they deem it harmful, yet are happy to spoon feed it to the rest of the world.

 

Indeed, social media are imo one of the larger 'threats' to the 'West'. I too only use the minimally, but 'the algorithm' (or better 'a similar harmful algorithm') is also on youtube.

I have created twitter to look at some Ukraine footage and usually manage to keep it at that (never post somthing), I notice it still has it's influence and is making me think about issues/problems which don't exist outside of social media. 
If I'd be the president of the world I'd end all social media as we know them now.

[ftukfgufyrdy]

Rip always kind of painful to see this hypothetical conflict being wargamed out, but I guess it's a very likely conflict that could happen. Wish I won't have to be placed in a similar scenario like the Ukrainian guy in the "How Hot will Ukraine Get" thread. 

[db_zero]

12 minutes ago, ftukfgufyrdy said:

Rip always kind of painful to see this hypothetical conflict being wargamed out, but I guess it's a very likely conflict that could happen. Wish I won't have to be placed in a similar scenario like the Ukrainian guy in the "How Hot will Ukraine Get" thread. 

Its been and will continued to be wargamed out on an official level as well as by think tanks and other institutions. China and other nations no doubt are up to the same. There are also wargames for Iran and Korea too.

Hopefully deterrence will prevail. A strong posture by the West along with allied's in the region will prevent any conflict. A lot of the regional nations are very upset with China. Its expansion and things like fishing rights have come to the forefront. There's also history.

On an informal level both sides, especially the militarizes who will be the recipients of any hot conflict know just how destructive and deadly it will be so hopefully it will just stay at rhetoric.

I would hope that Xi is more rational than Putin. Most though Putin would never actually launch a full scale invasion of Ukraine, though. 

Edited March 23, 2023 by db_zero

[cesmonkey]

 

[ftukfgufyrdy]

On 3/23/2023 at 3:42 PM, db_zero said:

Its been and will continued to be wargamed out on an official level as well as by think tanks and other institutions. China and other nations no doubt are up to the same. There are also wargames for Iran and Korea too.

Hopefully deterrence will prevail. A strong posture by the West along with allied's in the region will prevent any conflict. A lot of the regional nations are very upset with China. Its expansion and things like fishing rights have come to the forefront. There's also history.

On an informal level both sides, especially the militarizes who will be the recipients of any hot conflict know just how destructive and deadly it will be so hopefully it will just stay at rhetoric.

I would hope that Xi is more rational than Putin. Most though Putin would never actually launch a full scale invasion of Ukraine, though. 

I hope so man. I don't want to see everything I knew growing up be destroyed all because of some stupid ****ing political party wanting to take over the land my family has lived on for hundreds of years. 

[cesmonkey]

 

[alison]

On South China Sea topic, the latest CSIS report just dropped: https://amti.csis.org/perilous-prospects-tensions-flare-at-malaysian-vietnamese-oil-and-gas-fields/

Quote

This signals a break from past behavior. The CCG [Chinese Coast Guard] has been regularly patrolling Vanguard Bank since 2020 but had previously approached the Nam Con Son [Vietnamese] oil and gas fields only occasionally to make targeted challenges to specific development projects. It now appears that Nam Con Son has been added to the regular route of CCG vessels assigned to patrol duty at Vanguard. This is similar to the pattern off Malaysia’s Sarawak State, where CCG vessels stationed at Luconia Shoals consistently patrol nearby Malaysian oil and gas projects.

 

[alison]

CSIS have been busy putting together another detailed report on what the PLA has been up to. This month they give a daily breakdown of all the naval and air movements around Taiwan during April: https://chinapower.csis.org/tracking-chinas-april-2023-military-exercises-around-taiwan/

It gives a decent picture of the types of assets that China would be using to try surround and intimidate Taiwan. Unlike the last set of "exercises", no Chinese missiles flew over Taiwan, or at least none were reported.

Geographically, some interesting parts of the exercise were PLAN ships sailing between the nearby Batanes islands of the Philippines (southeast of Taiwan) and the Yaeyama islands of Japan/Okinawa (east of Taiwan).

On Philippines, Joe Biden met Ferdinand Marcos Jr a few days ago. No new or interesting developments aside from further indications that the US/Philippines relationship is strengthening. As has been reported over the past year it seems some military bases in Luzon might become open to US stopovers, but no news on a permanent presence like there is in Okinawa.

In Japan, Taiwan was the topic of a recent poll: https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14898395 It shows most voters are concerned about Japan getting embroiled in conflict over Taiwan, and suggests there is not much appetite for a deep involvement. I don't know much about the Japanese political or media landscape, though, so I can't say if this newspaper's polling has a bias.

[db_zero]

Couple of items...

China has been touted as an economic and military miracle. However all is not as it may appear. There is a problem with what has become known as "Tofu Building" construction. One now has to wonder is this also applies to other parts of China, including the military. Rapid and unprecedented growth comes at high risk. China has gone from a largely agrarian society to a modern high tech middle class society in a generation.

I saw the same thing as a teenager in the late 70's when we moved to the Middle East. The region was basically a medieval society that suddenly found itself awash in petro dollars and suddenly made the shift to a modern society. There was a lot of turmoil and unpredictable results during the rush. They've had a few generations since then to absorb it all.

Overall IMO, US intelligence is very good at counting things, but is lacking in the intentions and deeper non quantifiable assessments. Perhaps it a case of they keep that under wraps and/or things have become politicized over the years. There are a lot of competing interests at play.

 

This is on my get list:

 

 

[womble]

18 minutes ago, db_zero said:

There is a problem with what has become known as "Tofu Building" construction. One now has to wonder is this also applies to other parts of China, including the military.

China's real estate issues are well known. Shocking levels of leverage going on, and at some point, that's going to come due. There are "pyramid scheme" elements to the economy and the oncoming demographic locomotive is going to take some dealing with, too.

I, and I suspect we-here, don't know the extent to which the autocratic rot of "not wanting to tell the boss the bad news because you'll actually get shot" has spread in the armed forces, nor is it well known to what extent the corruption-entrepreneur class has taken root in their Military Industrial Complex. Xi has made much song and dance about clamping down on corruption, but how much of that is about using it as an excuse to get rid of opposition/rivals, and how much is actual effective anti-corruption work, I wonder whether anyone knows, except him. The corruption-entrepreneur has become a widespread cancer throughout the Chinese economic boom, and if Xi's measures are honest and effective, that'll help China out no end. I suspect it's not as bad as Russia, though.

[db_zero]

Corruption is one part of larger problems. In the west the move from agrarian to a industrial to an information based economy and society has been a gradual change. There was time to assimilate and absorb the changes. China not so much. It was rapid. There is also a huge demographic shift taking place in China. 

I've seen estimates that any serious invasion of Taiwan would involve more troops than Operation Overloard and be more difficult. The Allied forces had plenty of practical experience before Overloard-Torch, Sicily, Anzio and seabore landings and operations in the Pacific before undertaking Overloard. The Chinese navy and army lacks that sort of practical experience. I would guess that an amphibious assault the size and scope of Taiwan would be a huge ask for even the US Marine Corps which has the know how and experience to pull something of that scope off.

China projects a very strong image. The massive victory day parades, the large naval maneuvers, the firing of missiles. That's the image they want to project. What that means in practical terms is anyone's guess. Wars are won by people at the lowest common denominator. In the US and the west in general responsibility and initiative is given at very low levels. In the West the focus is on the individual. It the east its often on the collective.

I can't say I know just how much individual responsibility and initiative is granted to the lower levels of the Chinese military. Given the political climate and tightly controlled nature of China, I would venture to say its low.

Much is made of the Chinese economic juggernaut. We've seen this sort of thing before. In the late 70's, 80's Japan was viewed as the existential threat to America. Their manufacturing prowess, fueled by a weak US dollar caused great concern in the US. Then when US dollar got strong, the Japanese used this to start buying up real estate in the US, including some notable landmarks which cause further resentment in the US.

Then the Japanese real estate and financial bubble burst. You don't hear much about Japans economic prowess anymore and they like China are facing a massive demographic time bomb.

 

Edited May 16, 2023 by db_zero

[womble]

1 hour ago, db_zero said:

Then the Japanese real estate and financial bubble burst. You don't hear much about Japans economic prowess anymore and they like China are facing a massive demographic time bomb.

And an even bigger real estate bubble that will cause direct pain down to quite low levels and to quite a lot of Chinese. Add that the real estate bubble also has an element of being created not just by overoptimism and bad judgement, but by "bad actors" who knew exactly what fraud they were perpetrating (to a greater degree than Japan, I get the impression) and the impact on their society may well go far beyond the pure economic disaster.

And if Western AD-at-sea is as effective against China's "ustoppable" hypersonic ship killers as Patriot-on-land has proved so far against Russian "unstoppable" hypersonic cruise missiles, it won't matter how many troops there are in the PLA, because the PLAN won't be able to get them ashore, except as floating corpses.

[TheVulture]

3 hours ago, db_zero said:

I've seen estimates that any serious invasion of Taiwan would involve more troops than Operation Overloard and be more difficult. The Allied forces had plenty of practical experience before Overloard-Torch, Sicily, Anzio and seabore landings and operations in the Pacific before undertaking Overloard. The Chinese navy and army lacks that sort of practical experience. I would guess that an amphibious assault the size and scope of Taiwan would be a huge ask for even the US Marine Corps which has the know how and experience to pull something of that scope off.

That's something I keep telling people. The PLA doesn't even have the equipment to pull off an invasion at the moment (Xi a few years ago challenged the armed forces to build the capability by 2027 to give them the realistic option of an invasion). But as the_capt has said many times re Ukraine, there is a difference between having the equipment and having the capability.

Before Normandy, the allies had performed several other landings and raids on smaller scales which built up experience and an opportunity to fix problems that were discovered in their doctrine and practice. And also had pretty extensive experience of the logistics of supplying an overseas expeditionary force engaged in intense combat.

China has none of that experience, and you don't go from never having done it before to invading Taiwan's mainland as your first foray into the world of amphibious invasion. They'd have to have a few 'trial run' raids or attempts to capture smaller garrisoned islands, as well as extensive exercises in home territory that would probably be hard to hide from satellite observation. Once we start seeing signs like that, we maybe can say that China is within a year of having a meaningful invasion force re Taiwan.

Plus, nothing can really give them any experience in what is needed to maintain logistic lines across the strait of Taiwan in the face of opposition from the US Navy. It's a huge challenge.

[TheVulture]

Here's an article on recent diplomatic moves by the Philippines and the potential emergence of a Philippine - Taiwain - US - Australia (and possibly South Korea) bloc to try and contain China's attempts to gain military supremacy over the Yellow, East China and South China seas: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/shifts-in-the-western-pacific/

[cesmonkey]

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[cesmonkey]

 

DOD Releases 2023 Report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3561549/dod-releases-2023-report-on-military-and-security-developments-involving-the-pe/

https://media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/2003323409/-1/-1/1/2023-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF
 

[alison]

I haven't posted in here for a while because the news is all same-old, same-old, but since yesterday everyone in Taiwan got an air raid alert on their phones, which itself turned into a domestic political debate about if unannounced satellite launches should count as psy-ops, or if they should even trigger an alert in the first place, I suppose it's time to share an update.

All the usual sources have decent coverage. I liked this morning's article covering the disinformation warfare aspect, which is the primary mechanism China has been using to try influence the results of the upcoming election: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/09/taiwan-presidential-election-china-influence

Quote

But while Beijing appears to be putting a huge effort into influencing the election, the pressure from military activity that has been growing in recent years has gone quiet. Analysts have speculated that Beijing recognises its overt aggression – such as the near daily incursions into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (Adiz), live fire exercises, and drills practising an assault on the presidential office in Taipei – is potentially counterproductive. Such activity appears to bolster the DPP’s position that Taiwan must defend itself from worsening threats.

...

Since early December the defence ministry has reported more than 25 Chinese balloons have flown through the Adiz, with several going over the main island through Taiwan’s sovereign airspace.

My personal thinking is that yesterday's satellite launch was another form of "I'm not touching you" bullying like the spy balloons. If the Taiwanese government responds to the flyovers, then the angle is that they're overhyping totally-not-military incursions, but if they don't respond, then the angle is that they're weak.

Still, even though the Chinese government clearly backs a KMT win, and seems determined to continue their snubbing of Taiwan's democratically elected president if the DPP pulls it off... I don't think any more that the elections here are going to majorly affect any policy decisions on the China side. The CCP may use the results as an excuse to lift or apply light economic pressure, but at the end of the day Xi continues to push the notion that "complete unification" (完全統一) is imminent and inevitable, regardless of what anybody in Taiwan thinks. (And, to be clear, the overwhelming majority of Taiwanese today - even the pro-China side - have no appetite for "unification".)

Sadly, I think the more consequential election for Taiwan in 2024 will be the US election. If the US elects a non-interventionist leadership, this will probably embolden China to take more aggressive actions in the region.

[alison]

Well, the election is done, went pretty much the way people expected. If anything the deadlock in the legislative yuan is likely to make the status quo even more status quo-y than it already was. The ball remains in China's court, as it has been for the last 8 years since they unilaterally broke off official relations.

Council on Foreign Relations released something fun for the wargamers a few days back: https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan

It's a multimedia presentation style article that shows the challenges China would face if it it attempted a ground war in Taiwan. I think most people agree that in reality this will mostly be a war waged in cyberspace and the financial sphere, and even if it gets hot it'll more be about subs and missiles than infantry and drones, but it's still interesting to see visualizations of the terrain and imagine how it all could go down.