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China vs Taiwan please?


Oxide
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2 hours ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:

PS - Dieppe doesn't count.....We had other motivations for the operation and from that perspective Dieppe was absolutely a success.  Hard on the Canadians though.

I bet the military planners were very keen to get exhaustive debriefs from the troops that got out, though, and that they learned a thing or two about amphibious door-kicking even if it was incidental to the realpolitik that was the primary motivation for the "raid".

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11 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

China has none of this live fire experience; a few border skirmishes in the Himalayas are irrelevant. 

Agreed.  And one can also hope that they are using similar cheap, poor quality equipment to what gets sent to the US for us to buy.

The concept of taking nearby islands would seem to be the major threat.  Just like how the western allies didn't react to German walking into the Rhineland and then the Sudetanland.  In other words a strategy of nibbling around the edges, or the slowly boiling lobster which doesn't react to what's happening until it's too late and a fait accompli has been accomplished.    

The risk for any nation embarking on a policy of aggression and territorial expansion is that it cannot afford to lose much equipment and assets.  If it does, it risks being too weak to fend off another attacker.  In China's case I imagine their strategic thinking is that they have to win a very fast and cheap victory - just like Hitler gambled repeatedly.  

If Taiwan, the US and other interested nations can make an invasion by China expensive for China, China could be made (to feel) very vulnerable.  Am sure that China is a little nervous about having the Russians next door.   India is also a west-leaning nuke-armed neighbor that does not like China.  In addition, the withdrawal of much western investment would (hopefully) increase rapidly causing economic problems for China.  

Diplomatically, the west has clearly determined to become much closer friends with Russia.  That may be the main reason that we are not talking about Crimea or Ukraine much these days.  Also, bellyaching about the completion of the Nordstream II pipeline but in reality doing nothing to stop it etc.

While the threat from China is serious, a mis-step by China could provide opportunity to seriously hurt China and halt for the forseeable future its aggressive military expansionism.  

The China parallels with Hitler's Germany in the 30's are striking.  This time we have no excuse for not knowing where that road leads.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/532978-xi-jinpings-china-and-hitlers-germany-growing-parallels

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/12/nazi-china-communists-carl-schmitt/617237/

https://youtu.be/wD53MEbLDIE

No blacks allowed in China:

https://youtu.be/UTASl9wsM0Q

 

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Edward Luttwak, former think tank stalwart and the author of classics like "Coup d'Etat" and "Grand Strategy of the Roman Empire", compares Xi's China instead to self-assured-tech-industrial-giant-but-resentful-at-not-getting-the-richest-colonies Wilhelmine Germany (after Kaiser Bill kicked out the pragmatist Bismarck), which isn't much more comforting. I recommend his Twitter feed; he also publishes on Unherd on occasion. 

Luttwak also points out, as @Sgt.Squarehead does, that Taiwan could do much more than they do now in making invasion prohibitively expensive and risky. They have built a thriving independent Chinese nation (like Canada is a distinct 'North American' nation) through their own efforts, but they need to take the lead in defending it now rather than counting on Uncle Sam.  He recommends universal conscription like Finland or Switzerland.  A Javelin (with an antiship warhead) in every attic!

The rest of your comment @Erwin is getting too political for me although I agree with some of it. Best to stick to military ways and means.

Edited by LongLeftFlank
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Such military adventurism is, of course, closely tied to the economic and political spheres. How well does China read the "rest of the world"s reaction to their sabre-waving over "insignificant" islands? Would they be able to ride the wave of economic isolation as the US closed the seas for any imports to 'em?* Would the US and the rest of the West be able to withstand the sudden withdrawal of the cheap output of Chinese industry? Where would Russian come down? How would the presence of a large hostage population of Westerners within the borders of China affect the reactions of the western powers? 

* I would think that, while the area denial systems installed in and around the South China Sea might make the Chinese Navy a peer combatant potentially able to stand off the USN in the South China Sea, they wouldn't have the power projection capability to secure their trade routes outside that region.

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A blockade may work.  It's all down to timing.  IIRC that was tried with Germany and Japan...  But, it was too late/ineffective and still took years to wear them down. 

While China may feel under pressure to take action vs Taiwan or a Taiwanese island before the other nations are able to assist (and before the next US election), the challenge for the west and other local interested nations is to take action before China has amassed sufficient power to combat a blockade.  Clearly, China is going full steam trying to build up its naval forces for power projection. 

The other strategy, and perhaps the most viable, has to be to prepare to win at cyberwar in which China is crippled re food and water distribution, financial systems etc. hopefully causing a popular uprising...  before China does that to us.  

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Over the years I've asked for China to be done and impression has been its not going to happen. The person who is in charge of doing the OOB and related stuff was reputed to be suicidal at the thought of having to take on the task. It would be great to have a modern module on the Pacific, but I'm not holding my breath.

On an operational level I would love to a Flashpoint Campaigns type of game covering China and Taiwan...

China at the moment has huge issues. They are in the middle of a massive housing bust, energy issues and blackouts and a large group of nations has revoked favorable tariff treatment for Chinese goods.

In addition Japan has indicated they would assist Taiwan and any sort of Chinese invasion of Taiwan would incur massive diplomatic and economic isolation. The JMSDF is very well equipped and competent.

Taiwan has been preparing for a Chinese invasion for decades. There are only a few beaches suitable for amphibious assault and the tides and weather has to be favorable. 

Any large scale Chinese preparation for invasion would likely be detected. Complete air and naval dominance would be required. While much of the attention is focused on Carriers, surface ships and aircraft, what lurks beneath the waters is where the real danger lurks. IMO US, Taiwan and other allied nation subs could cause havoc to any Chinese invasion. Mines and underwater drones is also a major threat to any invasion.

American carriers and surface ships would likely be kept far back away from any threats.

Taiwan is very rugged and defensible. Resupply of and large scale amphibious invasion would also be a big headache.

These days bombers with massive loads of precision long range missiles can take off from the continental US and launch large scale barrages against naval forces.

One thing is for sure. If there is a war between China and the US it will begin with massive cyber attacks and targeting of space based assets.

The US Marines and Special Forces have been quietly training the Taiwan military. I saw a video that mentioned Taiwan if invaded will fight asymmetric against the numerically superior Chinese. The terrain is well suited for this-probably tunnels left over from the Japanese who occupied Taiwan and prepared for possible US invasion in WW2, plus more have been built. Plus the urban areas would be an absolute nightmare to try and take. 

These days with systems like Javelin urban combat would be very tough and time consuming and the consumption rate of ammo would be through the roof. I don't think China has the capability to mount and supply this sort of undertaking yet. Perhaps in 10 years, but any failure would mean the end of any regime that attempted it

 

Edited by db_zero
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11 hours ago, Ithikial_AU said:

Please no. BF have a habit of predicting locations of conflicts before they happen when they make a modern title and Taiwan is a little close to home. :D 

Can't say I blame you. Seems like that region is very concerned about what's going on. The US has a very large and powerful industrial-military-complex and over the years the business community has been doing a lot of business in China in quest of riches. The belief used to be that the more capitalistic China became, the more democratic and free it would become. That proved to be a very bad assumption.

China has issues of its own and a long history and a past of Western interventionism.

Recently some top US military officials have said that inspite of the rhetoric, both sides know any conflict between the US and China would be a disaster for both sides and both sides are eager to avoid one...

There may be another side to this. Back in the 80's when the US and USSR squared off, Reagan introduced the SDI initiative. Panned by many as impractical and wishful thinking, there is a theory and belief that Reagan knew that, but went ahead anyway because he knew the Soviets would have to react and their economy was on brink of collapse. The rest is history.

Fast forward to today. The United States is running massive deficits. Interest rates is at zero, arguably negative. Inflation is rising at an alarming rate. Any sort of large hike in interest rates to combat inflation is out of the question. The US deficit has become so large that if rates go to what was once considered normal, the interest on debt accrued would swamp the budget.

There is now open questioning of the US dollars status of the global reserve currency due to the gross fiscal mismanagement. The petrol-dollar system, put in place after the gold standard was abolished in the early 70's would also come into question.

China has already introduced the digital yuan and their society and economy is already highly digitized. Its far ahead of the US which is mostly debit and credit card based and built around the USD, which due to its status as the global reserve has allowed leaders and the country to abuse that power.

You see where this is headed? China may be ratcheting up rhetoric on Taiwan, with no real intention of invading to get the US to spend more on defense to react, while at the same time is also running massive deficits, dealing with fast rising inflation and an internal pressure for more spending on social programs, not to mention is seriously divided internally.

All this while the status of the USD as global reserve is coming into question and China already having a foundation for a replacement of the USD.

Edited by db_zero
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Taiwan is an air/sea battle, if the PLA are landing mechanized forces in any strength you have already lost. And virtually all the determinants of how that sea/air battle would play out depends highly classified electronic and cyber warfare factors. Neither side has the slightest idea how hacked they actually are, so have no realistic ability to depend on their their stuff to even sort of work. So it is a fascinating subject for a game, but a VERY different one from CM, and it also very hard to claim it is a credible sim without a vast library of information that a favorite book mine refers to as 'suicide before reading" classified, because it will hurt less than the alternative.

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2 hours ago, dan/california said:

Taiwan is an air/sea battle, if the PLA are landing mechanized forces in any strength you have already lost.

One has to factor in logistics and supply.  Yes, one can land... and then a few days later you run out of fuel and ammo.  By then, the US or other interested parties will be decimating the Chinese supply chain.  

Taiwan is much smaller than France.  But about the same size as Normandy.  So an invasion may work in the short-term only.

https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/why-a-taiwan-invasion-would-look-nothing-like-d-day/

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But the amount that is just completely unknown without high level clearances is at least a factor of ten great for an air/sea conflict around Taiwan. I would argue that it is more like two or three orders of magnitudes greater. The effects of multiple levels of electronic warfare systems being cranked up to full military power would be the mother of all unpleasant experiments.

 

 

Edited by dan/california
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4 hours ago, dan/california said:

The effects of multiple levels of electronic warfare systems being cranked up to full military power would be the mother of all unpleasant experiments.

The entire population of the island would need new mobile phones, for starters... A market almost worth starting a war over?

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I think a campaign could be done if enough liberties are given, I mean this is for entertainment purposes...

I imagine a scenario where both sides have sustained heavy losses in a blow for blow kind of engagement that's left thousands of Chinese Marines and Army stranded on Taiwan beachheads as the Chinese Navy sink off the coastline. Xi being determined to salvage the invasion, for his own sake if nothing else, plays the conflict as partially successful and orders his remaining forces to push inward.

Chinese have to push inland, knock out remaining enemy AA systems, repel counter-attacks to avoid being driven back into the sea, cause havoc etc, while Xi has his generals scramble to get reinforcements and supplies to Taiwan beachheads. Taiwan obviously have to prevent the Chinese from succeeding, so the campaign has various mission types, attack, defend etc.

Eventually, despite their best efforts, Taiwan fail to stop the Chinese resupplying and reinforcements being to trickle in, this triggers Japan and US Marines to get involved, Australia too, (of which all three will be DLC $$$$)  and now you have various conventional and asymmetrical battles going on all over the place. 

And as a new edition to the series, it can include Horde Mode, which actually takes place on a small Japanese island that Japanese Marines defend, savage combat against waves of Chinese Marines and Army, and you can upgrade your Japanese forces as you go on.

I'll be waiting for the devs to contact me to discuss my cut ;) 
hahah but seriously someone needs to do this I'm sure people will play.. heck just make the Chinese faction playable with their own campaign... hmm online play China vs Taiwan.. are we not seeing the possibilities (ramifications) here?!? lol

Edited by Oxide
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On 11/14/2021 at 11:15 PM, Oxide said:

And as a new edition to the series, it can include Horde Mode, which actually takes place on a small Japanese island that Japanese Marines defend, savage combat against waves of Chinese Marines and Army, and you can upgrade your Japanese forces as you go on.

Sorry brother, I otherwise like your comment, but I think you need to hang out with some actual modern Chinese.

Screaming Asiatic zombie horde era is over and done, along with cavalry charges or European farm boys advancing shoulder to shoulder in no mans land.  Even their elite troops aren't going to fling their bodies in front of embrasures any more or less willingly than their stinking hairy white enemies (i.e. heroically and with forethought, to save their buddies).

Yes, a few hundred million Chinese are still pretty poor farm kids and they overrepresent in the army, but they are still literate and have cellphones. You can assume they know their way around modern weapons and tactics, and will sell their lives dearly.

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On 11/14/2021 at 10:15 AM, Oxide said:

I'll be waiting for the devs to contact me to discuss my cut ;) 
hahah but seriously someone needs to do this I'm sure people will play.. heck just make the Chinese faction playable with their own campaign... hmm online play China vs Taiwan.. are we not seeing the possibilities (ramifications) here?!? lol

So just to weigh in because I can't say I haven't thought about it but such a campaign probably crosses lines that I am not personally entirely comfortable with.  So until we actually formally enter Cold War 2, China and Asian market will remain a significant customer base for any developers:

image.thumb.png.c2465637f7cc16eaf23509e98062001f.png

This is from Steam and as you can see the US and Chinese market are pretty much equal (around 128 PBs per week) so before any company decides to stick a finger in the eye of that big a slice of global market, they are going to need to think it through. 

"But what about CMBS?"  Fair point but also a cautionary tale in itself.  BFC scripted that fictional scenario well before 2014, it turned out to be a very good scenario...maybe too good.  Russia is about 25% the market of China, so there is that.  I would argue that Taiwan is a much more sensitive subject, particularly now and fair objective treatment of the theatre by western based developers is going to be tricky in the extreme.

Finally, unlike the Ukraine and Crimea, which up until "events" was pretty much accepted as an independent nation, Taiwan is, and is not.  It might simply be rude to open this one up.  I think it is probably a little insulting in this case, at least until something actually happens.  If an actual fight breaks out, well all bets will be off anyway.  This one might hit a little too close to bone given the global climate.

I have no doubt someone will try it I, personally, am a little wary.

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I didn't want to post this on the forum because it may be misunderstood and cook off an argument. But I've never been good at political correctness.

Have you seen China's latest recruitment video? They seem to be getting pretty badass.  I think that you would get the opposite effect in China, if you released a module in CMBS.  CMCW might be risky because of the weapons disparity. They would have never have made it to Taiwan anyway. Too many US attack subs. 

But now, I think China would use CMBS: China (& Taiwan) as a training tool!!!

Now, I think there is already a real Cold War going on and the chances of a hot war in the next couple of years... Well let's just say confidence is high.

So I don't think releasing a CMBS: China module would make anyone mad, except maybe Taiwan. They are a pip on your map. But honestly, it should show Taiwan they need to get serious (which they have been doing as of late). 

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10 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sorry brother, I otherwise like your comment, but I think you need to hang out with some actual modern Chinese.

Screaming Asiatic zombie horde era is over and done, along with cavalry charges or European farm boys advancing shoulder to shoulder in no mans land.  Even their elite troops aren't going to fling their bodies in front of embrasures any more or less willingly than their stinking hairy white enemies (i.e. heroically and with forethought, to save their buddies).

Yes, a few hundred million Chinese are still pretty poor farm kids and they overrepresent in the army, but they are still literate and have cellphones. You can assume they know their way around modern weapons and tactics, and will sell their lives dearly.

Oh I'm well aware, it was again just something for gameplay not actual realism. 
And I don't mean Korean War style throwing infantry at objectives, just meant waves of infantry and stuff that attack but still perform to the best of their ability given the context.

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1 hour ago, Oxide said:

And I don't mean Korean War style throwing infantry at objectives, just meant waves of infantry and stuff that attack but still perform to the best of their ability given the context.

TBH I don't have the slightest problem with Korean War style human-waves.....But I'd prefer to see them in a game about the Korean War.  ;)

Edited by Sgt.Squarehead
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I am actually hoping for a China vs Russia war over Mongolia or something of the sort Combat Mission game. I think that would be most interesting.

 

Just don’t know how commercially feasible it would be unless it was marketed to China. Then profits could be through the roof.

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1 hour ago, zmoney said:

don’t know how commercially feasible it would be unless it was marketed to China. Then profits could be through the roof.

You do realize that the Chinese wold not allow that unless it was clear that the Chinese would win all the time.  It's as if we were back in the 1930's and someone wanted to do a game of the Nazis vs the Soviet Union.  You think the Nazis woudl tolerate a game that showed the SU as winning?  China has a very insecure and militarily aggressive and expansionist govt that crushes all negative info.  Look at how the Chinese tennis star who complained about abuse by a senior official has been "disappeared".  It's probably time to realize that for the west to invest in China is unpatriotic and dangerous.  

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