How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[domfluff]

Now, I don't doubt that having that kind of regular experience (not to mention experience so close to home) was useful during the Cold War, and might reasonably be reflected in a CMCW-type scenario, but yeah, I can see how that thinking could have been an easy trap to fall into post-2000.

[Huba]

Another step in military support for Ukraine:

And a step back:

 

[Calamine Waffles]

6 hours ago, Canada Guy said:

Found an interesting site 'Battle Front' and it threw up a few questions.

1. He stated that the UKR was running T80BVs but I had thought that they were only running Oplots at the beginning of the war.

Ukraine has very few Oplots (probably ~10 of the T-84U Oplot and ~5 BM Oplot-M). By far the most numerous tank they use is the T-64B/B1/BV/B1V family, along with ~100 BM Bulats (a.k.a. T-64BM), several hundred T-72A/B/AMTs, and T-80BVs.

T-80BVs are primarily used by Marine (Naval Infantry) units. That is why you see them mostly lost in Mariupol and in the southern front.

[Huba]

A (translated) article about the war and post-war order. It is in line with the general consensus here, i.e. Russia is/ will be militarily defeated, will face isolation diminished status on the international stage, loose it's sphere of influence etc. What is interesting though is that it's written by a former Chinese ambassador to Ukraine and leading expert in Russian politics. Gives us a hint about what Chinese really think about the war ("poverty-ridden defeat") and it's implications to international order:

https://gaodawei.wordpress.com/2022/05/10/fmr-prc-amb-to-ukraine-on-russias-impending-defeat-and-international-relations/

Edited May 13, 2022 by Huba

[hcrof]

42 minutes ago, Huba said:

A (translated) article about the war and post-war order. It is in line with the general consensus here, i.e. Russia is/ will be militarily defeated, will face isolation diminished status on the international stage, loose it's sphere of influence etc. What is interesting though is written by a former Chinese ambassador to Ukraine and leading expert in Russian politics. Gives us a hint about what Chinese really think about the war ("poverty-ridden defeat") and it's implications to international order:

https://gaodawei.wordpress.com/2022/05/10/fmr-prc-amb-to-ukraine-on-russias-impending-defeat-and-international-relations/

I wish I could be so optimistic. I don't think the opinions of a retired intellectual don't mean much in China these days unfortunately. The Xi era has stifled free speech and we are left with rubbish like this:

https://gaodawei.wordpress.com/2022/04/26/lin-zhibo-russia-ukraine-conflict-and-chinas-position/

 

[CHEqTRO]

A whole russian (supposedly reservist) squad armed with Mosin Nagants. As the OP says (a notoriuos pro-russian, by the way) , you have to wonder why they are not given even some old AKM, rather than the Mosins. Lack of easily accesible 7.62x39 ammo, maybe?

 

[chuckdyke]

3 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Things can go wrong, very fast in the US. Biden is an old man and his vice president won't get the votes he had.

They think what putin thinks. nazis in Europe and the European nazis won't stand a chance like in WW2. Only party will be the new GOP and only whites can vote who own property. Russia needs the modern technology to make it happen. Liberal Democracies will be the new nazis. It doesn't matter that it is a complete lie, the definition will be by the far right who will call themselves one party democracies. 

[Aragorn2002]

18 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

They think what putin thinks. nazis in Europe and the European nazis won't stand a chance like in WW2. Only party will be the new GOP and only whites can vote who own property. Russia needs the modern technology to make it happen. Liberal Democracies will be the new nazis. It doesn't matter that it is a complete lie, the definition will be by the far right who will call themselves one party democracies. 

Better not get into politics too much.

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Better not get into politics too much.

Yes, I may step on some toes. But I see the way it is going. Ukraine's time is limited sooner or later there will be opposition on the money being spent. It has already started by a guy in the US senate named Rand Paul. According to him you don't help the Ukraine by sending the US bankrupt. No worries he will gain support if not this year but certainly next year. 

[CHEqTRO]

[billbindc]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

I live too far from the center of city. I suppose, there were some attempts to sneak on guarded territory of Govt. quarter, because even in our distant district I heard several clashes with short, but intensive sounds of rifles firing, so there really were many diversion groups around. But I have too little faith to the words of Arestovich about dozen attempts and "epic battles" near Bankova street with Russian diversion groups. 

My advice to you and all - never believe the words of Arestovich. Even he say something true it should be divided in many times. The mission of Arestovich is not bring true picture of war, but to calm population with heroic victorious tales. He is just a part of PsyOps for inner customer. 

There was a live feed with audio running from a cam near Maidan Square during that first week. I never heard a sustained gun battle near there (the Presidential offices, iirc is nearby) and only occasionally heard distinct gun fire (distant artillery and airstrikes were pretty common). I don't think anyone else did either or it would have been all over social media immediately. Additionally, Zelensky himself has never said in any interview that there was any kind of pitched battle for the building. It was obviously an intense situation and there was obviously a pretty large operation to kill off the Presidential office but it doesn't seem like it every got very close to doing the job. Yet another early indicator I missed at the time that the Ukrainian government really had it together.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

A (translated) article about the war and post-war order. It is in line with the general consensus here, i.e. Russia is/ will be militarily defeated, will face isolation diminished status on the international stage, loose it's sphere of influence etc. What is interesting though is that it's written by a former Chinese ambassador to Ukraine and leading expert in Russian politics. Gives us a hint about what Chinese really think about the war ("poverty-ridden defeat") and it's implications to international order:

https://gaodawei.wordpress.com/2022/05/10/fmr-prc-amb-to-ukraine-on-russias-impending-defeat-and-international-relations/

Yep.

Xi has always seen Russia and Putin as a useful tool for China's ambitions. There's no entente cordiale between the two and never will be. China was told to expect a quick resolution to Ukraine in Russia's favor and planned accordingly with an extensive internal propaganda campaign to support the move. Russia didn't deliver, the reality is seeping into Chinese public consciousness and now China is adjusting. 

[billbindc]

18 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Yes, I may step on some toes. But I see the way it is going. Ukraine's time is limited sooner or later there will be opposition on the money being spent. It has already started by a guy in the US senate named Rand Paul. According to him you don't help the Ukraine by sending the US bankrupt. No worries he will gain support if not this year but certainly next year. 

Generally a pessimist on this front but the one area in which American unity has distinctly improved is on the subject of Russia and Ukraine. In essence, there's simply not much of an internal opposition to helping Ukraine fight and win this war: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2022/04/06/seven-in-ten-americans-now-see-russia-as-an-enemy/

[The_MonkeyKing]

13 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

This was already settled month or so ago directly with Turkey. Finnish PM, president and FM have had (often multiple) talks with every NATO member and made sure the road is clear. Turkey has stated to support Finland ascension to NATO. 

https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000008718096.html (translate works)
 

[Huba]

50 minutes ago, hcrof said:

I wish I could be so optimistic. I don't think the opinions of a retired intellectual don't mean much in China these days unfortunately. The Xi era has stifled free speech and we are left with rubbish like this:

https://gaodawei.wordpress.com/2022/04/26/lin-zhibo-russia-ukraine-conflict-and-chinas-position/

 

Phew, I managed to read it but it was painful - official Party line I presume? Loaded with Communist talking points and phraseology. I do not doubt that this is what is being officially presented - the article I linked surprised me by not being written in this spirit. I don't pretend to know what Xi and his court really think, just wanted to point out that different than official opinions are being voiced too.

[CHEqTRO]

Just now, The_MonkeyKing said:

This was already settled month or so ago directly with Turkey. Finnish PM, president and FM have had (often multiple) talks with every NATO member and made sure the road is clear. Turkey has stated to support Finland ascension to NATO. 

https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000008718096.html (translate works)
 

Yeah I know. They are most likely trying to just get something in return, or trying to publicly appease somewhat the russians. Still, in a moment where unity is needed, these kinds of statements are the opposite of helpful.

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

Generally a pessimist on this front but the one area in which American unity has distinctly improved is on the subject of Russia and Ukraine.

We see, I quote only what has been said in the US senate and by the 46th president. Biden won support for pulling out of Afghanistan by the next election the next president may win by stopping aid to Europe. Europe needs to stand on its own feet. They have the technical know how, Carl Gustav, Panzerfaust3 and the NLAW knock out Russian tanks for one tenth of the cost of a Javelin. Better for city fighting are the European weapons. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

6 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Yeah I know. They are most likely trying to just get something in return, or trying to publicly appease somewhat the russians. Still, in a moment where unity is needed, these kinds of statements are the opposite of helpful.

There were multiple Turkish statements of supporting the Finland's decision what ever way it would go.

Also the president is not the one who ratifies the agreement in Turkey. It is the parliament. Similar situation was in with Croatian president. (although Turkey is quite a bit more dictatorial)

Worst-case in need would be Turkey wanting to make a "deal" of some sort. No idea what exactly.

Indeed Finland only asked Turkey about Finnish membership. Sweden might be little much for them.

 

Edited May 13, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[billbindc]

8 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

We see, I quote only what has been said in the US senate and by the 46th president. Biden won support for pulling out of Afghanistan by the next election the next president may win by stopping aid to Europe. Europe needs to stand on its own feet. They have the technical know how, Carl Gustav, Panzerfaust3 and the NLAW knock out Russian tanks for one tenth of the cost of a Javelin. Better for city fighting are the European weapons. 

Biden's support actually took a big hit on the Afghan pullout from which he's never recovered. I was and am a supporter of the Afghan withdrawal but in DC politics walking away from virtually any military commitment is a very, very fraught business. Entire swathes of the media here made their careers on covering it, politicians buffed their images selling it and of course large corporations made billions upon billions supplying it. Withdrawing from the Ukraine commitment (much less NATO) will not be something that can now be easily done without enormous political risk...the antics of the fake ophthalmologist from Kentucky notwithstanding.

Edited May 13, 2022 by billbindc

[MSBoxer]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Biden's support actually took a big hit on the Afghan pullout from which he's never recovered. I was and am a supporter of withdrawal but in DC politics walking away from virtually any military commitment is a very, very fraught business. Entire swathes of the media here made their careers on covering it, politicians buffed their images selling it and of course large corporations made billions upon billions supplying it. Withdrawing from the Ukraine commitment (much less NATO) will not be something that can now be easily done without enormous political risk...the antics of the fake ophthalmologist from Kentucky notwithstanding.

According to CNN, he is not against the aid, he would like there to be some oversight written into the law.  So not as dire as some have indicated.  They only real issue is that this delays the approval and release of aid.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/12/politics/rand-paul-blocks-ukraine-aid/index.html

"The change Paul is seeking would create a special inspector general to oversee how the Ukraine military aid is spent. Members from both parties broadly agree with that notion, but forcing a change to the bill at this stage would be very time consuming and would slow getting the needed aid to Ukraine."

[hcrof]

10 minutes ago, Huba said:

Phew, I managed to read it but it was painful - official Party line I presume? Loaded with Communist talking points and phraseology. I do not doubt that this is what is being officially presented - the article I linked surprised me by not being written in this spirit. I don't pretend to know what Xi and his court really think, just wanted to point out that different than official opinions are being voiced too.

It really is hard to read, and so obviously nonsense from a western perspective, but it is the official party line and as far as I know that is the story being fed to 1.4 billion Chinese people.

I was very interested in the article you posted, but I don't want to fall into the trap of wishful thinking. Even if that guy won the debate and Xi changed from a hard-line russiophile to a softy liberal, how do you sell that to the Chinese public after months of anti US histeria?

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Withdrawing from the Ukraine commitment (much less NATO) will not be something that can now be easily done without enormous political risk...

The biggest weapon of the west is the English language. By learning it you understand the culture. {Once it was a second language for me). I was flabbergasted by the antics of the 46th president. Attacking the judiciary, the police by the government of which he was still the president. The US system is an adaption of the British Westminster system. To have a major party walking away from that system made you lose a lot of credibility. You may get away with it once but not a second time. See what happens at your next election. We see opposition to the Ukraine and NATO, foreign politics should be bipartisan, but it is not. 

[akd]

Can’t imagine this is effective for anything other than harassment:

On the other hand, amazed to see even these little quadcopter commercial drones can be turned into murderbots:

 

[Splinty]

2 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

The biggest weapon of the west is the English language. By learning it you understand the culture. {Once it was a second language for me). I was flabbergasted by the antics of the 46th president. Attacking the judiciary, the police by the government of which he was still the president. The US system is an adaption of the British Westminster system. To have a major party walking away from that system made you lose a lot of credibility. You may get away with it once but not a second time. See what happens at your next election. We see opposition to the Ukraine and NATO, foreign politics should be bipartisan, but it is not. 

99% of that supposed opposition is media enhanced political rhetoric. A huge majority of Americans support Ukraine. American politicians from both parties recognize that.

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, Splinty said:

American politicians from both parties recognize that.

We see but it pays for us not to be reliant on the way in which the US citizens will vote. If it is true what you say about your media. The likes of Fox News should be held to account what journalism is all about.