How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Pete Wenman]

6 minutes ago, Kraft said:

.. it would be amazing if this could be geolocated.

 

 

 

[akd]

I recognize that spot very well.

@sburke @Kinophile

 

[db_zero]

One of the least talked about item on media is the C4ISR and battle management systems differences between Ukraine and Russia.

It was mentioned besides re-training the Ukrainian military after 2014, one of the items provided to Ukraine C4ISR equipment and training.

RT the media outlet for Russia’s aired a bunch of segments on the New Russian military and it didn’t appear that Russia invested in C4ISR or had the same level of sophistication and resources dedicated to it as the West.

Without C4ISR and battle management systems you’re not going to be able to conduct complex combined arms or coordinate between land and air operations well in a fast moving environment.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Russia are still using pencils and paper, besides also forced to use non-secure communications.

Ukraine on the other hand was given modern C4ISR and battle management systems that integrates with outside NATO assets.

The billions the Russian military lost over the years to graft and corruption could have bought a modern C4ISR and battle management infrastructure that could easily have been a huge force multiplier for the Russian military.

On another note-if we still have TOW missiles and M113s with the hammerhead launchers in usable condition, they might be worth sending. M113s with 81mm and 4.2 mortars would also be useful.

Appears like more artillery, MLRS systems and a lot more artillery ammo is required.

Edited April 18, 2022 by db_zero

[Haiduk]

@sburke @Kinophile

+3 more

Mayor Dmitriy Tiunin, commander (?) of engineer-sapper battalion of 136th guard motor-rifle brigade, 58th guard CAA, Southern military district. Got lost when participated in minecleaning. Data of death unknown

 

Mayor Denis Golovko, deputy commander of 2nd motor-rifle battalion of 71st guard motor-rifle regiment, 42nd guard motor-rifle division, 58th guard CAA, Southern miliatary district. Killeld on 29th of March. 

Captain of 3rd rank (=mayor) Alexandr Chirva, commander of large landing ship "Tsezar Kunnikov" of 197th landing ship brigade, Black Sea Fleet. Died from wounds 16-17th of April. He was wounded during Uлrainan strike on Russians landing ships in Berdiansk on 24th of March. His ship was damaged.

Obviously he was confused with captain of 2nd rank Khromchenkov, commander of LLS "Saratov", which was mistakingly reported as died from wounds two days ago.

 

Edited April 18, 2022 by Haiduk

[sfhand]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

P.S. thanks for nobody pointing out my repeated use of "starboard" instead of "port" in my post from a few days ago.  I do really know which is which.  In my defense, I don't know my right from my left so...

Which means you can't really know which is which, lol... 

[dan/california]

9 hours ago, kraze said:

Through deportations into far east and mass murder russians made sure only pro-russians remain a vast majority on occupied territories of Donbass. And yeah, we can't even imagine what sort of mass graves will eventually be found there after 8 years of occupation.

Not to mention that they mass brought in their broke ass looters they call an "army" to live in "vacated" homes over those 8 years.

So much like Crimea those territories should be retaken using a complete set of sanctions banning russian oil and gas so that Russia is so unstable - caring about occupied areas will be its last priority. If those sanctions will ever happen. Losing thousands of soldiers just to take areas too mentally infested with "russian world" - is not worth it.

It's important to save people in newly occupied territories though.

I have zero standing to to give Ukraine advice. I will now proceed to give Ukraine advice...

The best way to get a durable post war peace is for Ukraine to trade Crimea and the DPLR to Russia in return for NATO membership. When this nightmare is over Ukraine wants to become a stable, free, and prosperous country that is as much a part of Europe as France. dealing with the wreckage of the DPLR, and a population in Crimea that really is Russian leaning just makes that much harder. It allows Putin a tiny fig leaf in the armistice that has to happen some day. He can spend the rest of his hopefully short reign explaining how the army had 75,000 causalities securing paper title to territory Russia already de-facto controlled. 

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

With all the hand wringing on the future of the tank I am surprised that the idea that air superiority is also “in trouble” has not sparked the same discussions.  Tac Aviation has also been demonstrated as extremely vulnerable in this war as next gen AD evolves.

If Russian armored tactics and logistics  are a disaster, their air force hasn't had any. This allows western air forces to argue that things really would be different with competent execution. In particular the Russians not having even a fraction of the PGMs they need, so their planes keep coming into the ManPad envelope. What simply hasn't been tested is NATOs ability to suppress/destroy an S-400 based integrated air defense system, so that flying high isn't more dangerous than flying low. I think we have to say the jury is just still out on that one. Although the number of pictures of Turkish drones popping ADA assets certainly means SOMETHING 

Edited April 18, 2022 by dan/california
second part

[sburke]

20 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Captain of 3rd rank (=mayor) Alexandr Chirva, commander of large landing ship "Tsezar Kunnikov" of 197th landing ship brigade, Black Sea Fleet. Died from wounds 16-17th of April. He was wounded during Uлrainan strike on Russians landing ships in Berdiansk on 24th of March. His ship was damaged.

Obviously he was confused with captain of 2nd rank Khromchenkov, commander of LLS "Saratov", which was mistakingly reported as died from wounds two days ago.

 

I still have this guy down as WIA is that incorrect?

Captain of 2nd rank Vladimir Khromchenkov (=lt.colonel) , commander of large landing ship "Saratov", 197th landing ship brigade of Black Sea Fleat.

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I have zero standing to to give Ukraine advice. I will now proceed to give Ukraine advice...

The best way to get a durable post war peace is for Ukraine to trade Crimea and the DPLR to Russia in return for NATO membership. When this nightmare is over Ukraine wants to become a stable, free, and prosperous country that is as much a part of Europe as France. dealing with the wreckage of the DPLR, and a population in Crimea that really is Russian leaning just makes that much harder. It allows Putin a tiny fig leaf in the armistice that has to happen some day. He can spend the rest of his hopefully short reign explaining how the army had 75,000 causalities securing paper title to territory Russia already de-facto controlled. 

 

The problem of assuming a trade for durable peace is believing Russia wants peace.  What Russia wants is nobody on their border that represents a better alternative to autocratic rule.  No concession from Ukraine is going to fix that.  Also Russia should not be rewarded for this forcible seizure of Ukrainian territory.  Ukraine joining NATO is a Ukrainian decision regardless of any relationship with Russia.

I expect this will all be a moot issue.  Between sanctions, EU weaning itself off Russian energy and the global financial community looking at investment in Russia to be off the table for at least a decade, Russia might make a deal to retreat from Crimea to try and beg the west to take them off the pariah state list.  

[BeondTheGrave]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

n return for NATO membership. When this nightmare is over Ukraine wants to become a stable, free, and prosperous country that is as much a part of Europe as France.

I would agree with this, except the caveat that EU membership and the EU security grantee could be a useful substitute for NATO membership. IF! of course you trust that the EU is going to be a durable institution and that in the future it will be willing to stick up for Ukraine, or that it AND the US will stick up for Ukraine. NATO membership has been a bit of a red line for Putin and I think in a settlement it might be an important sticking point for Russia. An EU security arrangement might be more palatable. If I were advising Kyiv (obviously Im not) I would prefer to keep the US involved as American interests more directly confront Russia. That is, if this is the length to which a Democratic president will go, just imagine what a Ronald Reagan would do for Ukraine. But barring that, an EU deal might also work with the assumption that Germany won't in the future shave off Ukraine to save its own profit margins. 

All that being said I do not currently see a negotiated settlement developing. Putin seems pretty intent now on making this a drawn out war. Seems like the strike against Belgorod nipped stalling negotiations off. 

[DesertFox]

Nice!

 

 

[FancyCat]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I have zero standing to to give Ukraine advice. I will now proceed to give Ukraine advice...

The best way to get a durable post war peace is for Ukraine to trade Crimea and the DPLR to Russia in return for NATO membership. When this nightmare is over Ukraine wants to become a stable, free, and prosperous country that is as much a part of Europe as France. dealing with the wreckage of the DPLR, and a population in Crimea that really is Russian leaning just makes that much harder. It allows Putin a tiny fig leaf in the armistice that has to happen some day. He can spend the rest of his hopefully short reign explaining how the army had 75,000 causalities securing paper title to territory Russia already de-facto controlled. 

 

I think legitimizing the seizure of Crimea and DPLR is a bad idea, sure don't militarily contest it, but nothing says you can't claim it for the rest of time de jure. Ukraine has international recognition for her borders including Crimea, and DPLR, and giving that up for a Russia that has shown to be less than trustworthy on her signed treaties, and clearly has a huge long standing wish to control Ukraine in some form, so no need to reward bad behavior. 

As for securing EU and NATO membership, mind you, NATO and EU states have entered with contested borders and frozen conflicts, colonial processions in flux, and some entered with agreements forbidding NATO military bases or activity on their soil, opposition to Ukraine joining NATO is rooted in not spooking Russia, as Russia has basically gone full blown insane now, that consideration should be dropped and Ukraine should be let in with a eye at being diplomatic to Russia, but nothing implying Russia has legitimacy in contesting Ukrainian foreign and domestic policy. 

[sross112]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

With all the hand wringing on the future of the tank I am surprised that the idea that air superiority is also “in trouble” has not sparked the same discussions.  Tac Aviation has also been demonstrated as extremely vulnerable in this war as next gen AD evolves.

I was thinking about drone swarms and their use against aircraft yesterday. Thinking of location defense for the cost of an advanced AA system like S-300 or Patriot you could put thousands of drones over a city. Could they make a bubble and defend from incoming aircraft and missiles? When I think of drones I don't think of them being very fast so you'd still need a good long range early warning system but if they were able to act basically like a PGM AA shell it might work. 

Then for interceptor type missions could you do a swarm of say 50 drones up in front of incoming planes to act like an aerial mine field? Of course it would have the advantage of being a mobile minefield so it could be vectored into the path of incoming aircraft. Not sure if something like that would work and only have a basic understanding of radars but especially if it is camped in one spot in the air I'm not sure if the current radars would even pick it up. Under the Doppler principle there would be no signature as there is no change in the waves being bounced back. 

I don't know enough about the technologies involved to be able to properly articulate it but something along those lines for air defense would be a game changer. The vulnerable link would be the control stations and methods but you'd think they would have a longer range and the loitering ability would be very useful. 

[kraze]

31 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I have zero standing to to give Ukraine advice. I will now proceed to give Ukraine advice...

The best way to get a durable post war peace is for Ukraine to trade Crimea and the DPLR to Russia in return for NATO membership. When this nightmare is over Ukraine wants to become a stable, free, and prosperous country that is as much a part of Europe as France. dealing with the wreckage of the DPLR, and a population in Crimea that really is Russian leaning just makes that much harder. It allows Putin a tiny fig leaf in the armistice that has to happen some day. He can spend the rest of his hopefully short reign explaining how the army had 75,000 causalities securing paper title to territory Russia already de-facto controlled.

This won't work like that. Disregarding the fact that we will never be in NATO while France, Germany and, especially, Hungary are there as they are - Russia is hell bent on destroying Ukraine. Do you really think russians care about occupied Crimea and Donbas? It's just what they managed to capture. Until their troops are on polish border - they will not stop. And it doesn't matter which czar russians elect. They keep putin in power only because he is currently the alpha male. If he becomes weak - russians will just replace him with any other putin.

Russia will stop only when they have no army to attack with anymore and/or are too busy killing each other - but at that point Crimea and occupied Donbas territories will be easy pickings anyway - with no Russia to support any pro-russian movement in there.

[sross112]

6 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I think legitimizing the seizure of Crimea and DPLR is a bad idea, sure don't militarily contest it, but nothing says you can't claim it for the rest of time de jure. Ukraine has international recognition for her borders including Crimea, and DPLR, and giving that up for a Russia that has shown to be less than trustworthy on her signed treaties, and clearly has a huge long standing wish to control Ukraine in some form, so no need to reward bad behavior. 

As for securing EU and NATO membership, mind you, NATO and EU states have entered with contested borders and frozen conflicts, colonial processions in flux, and some entered with agreements forbidding NATO military bases or activity on their soil, opposition to Ukraine joining NATO is rooted in not spooking Russia, as Russia has basically gone full blown insane now, that consideration should be dropped and Ukraine should be let in with a eye at being diplomatic to Russia, but nothing implying Russia has legitimacy in contesting Ukrainian foreign and domestic policy. 

Agreed. Also, Ukraine has probably the best support it can count on right now to press their issues. They are also in a position to do so militarily if events continue to develop consistently with what we've seen so far (and I don't think any of us expect the RA to come back at this point and miraculously get the upper hand). Everything coming out of Russia points to them looking at this becoming a long war and yes we've gamed this out economically and politically but there is always the possibility that somehow Russia becomes a greater threat in 10 years or 15 or whenever. Not sure exactly how that would happen but nobody saw the Germany of 1939 coming out of the 1920s either. 

I do hope that the world finally sees Russia for the monstrosity that it is and doesn't let them back to the table until they unf*** their politics. That can only be done from the inside and until it is done they should be sidelined economically and politically. Their ability to bully has been shredded at this point with everything but nukes but the world and especially the west has to stand up to them. They have no right to tell a sovereign nation what choices they can make and neither does any other nation in the world. I'm hoping the world continues to see them for what they are and stand up to their crap. 

I'm going a little dark here, but as for the Crimea maybe Ukraine takes it back and then trades all the Russian transplants for the kidnapped citizens of Ukraine. Again, dark politics of basically hostage trading but it would be a good way to get the people they want back and get rid of the people they don't want without lowering themselves to the cleansing activities like Russia. 

[Battlefront.com]

Ukraine military spokesman confirmed multiple towns were retaken in the Kharkiv and Izyum areas:

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/825117.html

There is also an article in there about the possibility that a Ukrainian transport aircraft, loaded with weapons, was shot down near Odessa.

Steve

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, kraze said:

This won't work like that. Disregarding the fact that we will never be in NATO while France, Germany and, especially, Hungary are there as they are - Russia is hell bent on destroying Ukraine. Do you really think russians care about occupied Crimea and Donbas? It's just what they managed to capture. Until their troops are on polish border - they will not stop. And it doesn't matter which czar russians elect. They keep putin in power only because he is currently the alpha male. If he becomes weak - russians will just replace him with any other putin.

Russia will stop only when they have no army to attack with anymore and/or are too busy killing each other - but at that point Crimea and occupied Donbas territories will be easy pickings anyway - with no Russia to support any pro-russian movement in there.

I think the Russians are worthless pieces of &%$##&&$$, lie about everything. and only respond to a baseball bat upside the head. This isn't really about the Russians, other than giving Putin one tiny something at the negotiation table, in lieu of storming Moscow. It is about Ukraine fulfilling its potential. I am saying that Ukraine is more free, more prosperous, and more stable in decade if Crimea and the DPLR are Russia's problem instead of yours. My opinion, worth what you paid, and I really doubt Zelensky is going to put me on the negotiating team, not even as a food taster. 

[FancyCat]

10 minutes ago, sross112 said:

I'm going a little dark here, but as for the Crimea maybe Ukraine takes it back and then trades all the Russian transplants for the kidnapped citizens of Ukraine. Again, dark politics of basically hostage trading but it would be a good way to get the people they want back and get rid of the people they don't want without lowering themselves to the cleansing activities like Russia. 

I was considering the same thing, what to do with the missing people taken from Ukraine to Russia. In that sense, I find it perfectly acceptable to trade if that's what it takes to recover those kidnapped to Russia.

I hope this includes Crimean Tatars, poor souls. God willing they can regain their homeland in Crimea.

[sross112]

11 minutes ago, kraze said:

This won't work like that. Disregarding the fact that we will never be in NATO while France, Germany and, especially, Hungary are there as they are - Russia is hell bent on destroying Ukraine. Do you really think russians care about occupied Crimea and Donbas? It's just what they managed to capture. Until their troops are on polish border - they will not stop. And it doesn't matter which czar russians elect. They keep putin in power only because he is currently the alpha male. If he becomes weak - russians will just replace him with any other putin.

Russia will stop only when they have no army to attack with anymore and/or are too busy killing each other - but at that point Crimea and occupied Donbas territories will be easy pickings anyway - with no Russia to support any pro-russian movement in there.

Maybe it is time for a new alliance to emerge with the specific agenda of containing Russian aggression against its neighbors. Ukraine could enter the EU for the economic ties but if there is that much resistance from NATO members to adding her then make a new solution. 

Ukraine could take the lead and form an alliance of border states and anyone else that is tired of Russian bull****. The border states seem to understand the threat more than everyone else and are very supportive of each other as it is, may as well make it formal. Norway, Finland, the Baltics, Poland and Ukraine for starters with invites to Japan and US (water borders). Not sure how or if the southern neighbors would want to be part of it but they might as well. Either way, just the western border nations would be more than enough of a match for the RA but beyond that you just took away their ability to concentrate everything they have against one nation like they did with Ukraine and strip the rest of their borders. It would really tie them in a knot for a long time to come and effectively isolate them. Be really nice if Belarus would have their own Maidan and be part of it as well. There could very possibly be other former eastern block nations that would sign on just out of their dislike for Russia and their politics.

[FancyCat]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

other than giving Putin one tiny something at the negotiation table

Crimea and Donbas is not tiny by any means. If your implying retaining the pre-invasion borders, that would be utterly humiliating for Putin and Russia since they recognized and sought as part of the invasion to gain all the de jure territories of DPLR so the only thing you could give is the remaining land in the de jure borders and I find that impossible, one, the amount of fortifications to hand over would hurt defense for the future, displaced population, etc, that isn't viable at all either.

[kraze]

12 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I think the Russians are worthless pieces of &%$##&&$$, lie about everything. and only respond to a baseball bat upside the head. This isn't really about the Russians, other than giving Putin one tiny something at the negotiation table, in lieu of storming Moscow. It is about Ukraine fulfilling its potential. I am saying that Ukraine is more free, more prosperous, and more stable in decade if Crimea and the DPLR are Russia's problem instead of yours. My opinion, worth what you paid, and I really doubt Zelensky is going to put me on the negotiating team, not even as a food taster. 

What I'm saying is that while Russia exists nearby - there will be no peace. And if there's no Russia - there's no conflict or issues in Donbass and Crimea. It doesn't really matter if Russia has larger or smaller borders - as long as they have borders with us.

The only way it works is if Russia goes deep down into some kinda civil war and we get a really really fast track into NATO and by the time Russia is ready to come back and start a new war - article 5 makes it being too late.

[kraze]

10 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Maybe it is time for a new alliance to emerge with the specific agenda of containing Russian aggression against its neighbors. Ukraine could enter the EU for the economic ties but if there is that much resistance from NATO members to adding her then make a new solution. 

Ukraine could take the lead and form an alliance of border states and anyone else that is tired of Russian bull****. The border states seem to understand the threat more than everyone else and are very supportive of each other as it is, may as well make it formal. Norway, Finland, the Baltics, Poland and Ukraine for starters with invites to Japan and US (water borders). Not sure how or if the southern neighbors would want to be part of it but they might as well. Either way, just the western border nations would be more than enough of a match for the RA but beyond that you just took away their ability to concentrate everything they have against one nation like they did with Ukraine and strip the rest of their borders. It would really tie them in a knot for a long time to come and effectively isolate them. Be really nice if Belarus would have their own Maidan and be part of it as well. There could very possibly be other former eastern block nations that would sign on just out of their dislike for Russia and their politics.

Problem is - no border state of Russia is nuclear. Russia is nuclear. If an alliance had at least one (ideally - more) nuclear countries - MAD would mean Russia committing suicide, while, obviously, taking everybody with them. And, ironically, the chance of that is way way lower than Russia attacking the non-nuclear new alliance.

And let's be realistic - Baltics and Poland will never leave nuclear NATO, while Finland will join it this summer without issues. Which means that Ukraine will have nobody to form that alliance with.

[Combatintman]

4 hours ago, kraze said:

https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/04/18/7340423/

seems to be true, our journos already grabbed a few screencaps

Hopefully not looking for cats which was a thing with the media a few days back.

[FancyCat]

I'm not so forlorn on the idea of NATO/EU rejecting Ukraine past the invasion. Obviously, membership during the invasion is impossible but if Russia were to be firmly ejected out of the pre-invaded lands, I think with the advantage in threatening Donbas and Crimea and sanctions, Russia will be forced to come to the table and once the negotiations are concluded, I'm sure public sentiment will pave for easier transition to EU and NATO membership.

Some important factors, one, public opinion has shifted to Ukraine, governmental opinion on NATO and Ukraine has shifted and the prime reason for Russia's say in the matter has always been predicated on ensuring Russia wouldn't escalate as a result. Except Russia has thrown out her cards, and basically flipped the table, there isn't anything to fear upsetting Russia, everything is broken already. A EU with Ukraine will be very economically beneficial (isn't there a ton of resources, certainly manpower wise Ukraine is a keeper, NATO will enjoy the most experienced army in the world (and if your a believer in the hand of the military-industrial complex in geopolitics, a extremely potent base to profit from) and to be frank, with the way the Russian military is like right now?

The dooming scenario of a quick Russian seizure of the Baltics and a dare at the western and central European states to fight and shed blood and begin a long term conflict for the eastern European states is dead. Instead, NATO as a whole can expect the bordering states (including if Ukraine is accepted) to act as a worthwhile and potent buffer, while it sounds callous, basically means it's not too risky for Germany and France to get bloody for Eastern Europe.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

I still have this guy down as WIA is that incorrect?

Captain of 2nd rank Vladimir Khromchenkov (=lt.colonel) , commander of large landing ship "Saratov", 197th landing ship brigade of Black Sea Fleat.

Yes

[Haiduk]

@The_Capt @Battlefront.com

Our General Staff made a statemant that there are signs of Russia launched offensive operaton. They intensified assault actions and shellings and in nearest days will gradually throw in the battle more and more BTGs.

Our twitters reported, Russian after Kreminna turned west and having huge advantage in armor, advance to Lyman town, seizing Zarichne village in 10 km from this town. 

Situation and possible Russian intentions you can see on the map. Maybe Russian efforts from Izium were just distract actions and here we see initial phase of main strike from Kreminna, which in previous week was relatively calm place after our troops pushed back LPR fighters.

I suppose, if the fights around Kreminna lasted three days our and NATO intelligence uncover their plans. So, who asked "where the offensive?", well, maybe it started.  

 

 

Edited April 18, 2022 by Haiduk