How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Harmon Rabb]

Remember that plane crash that killed the president of Poland in 2010?

A special Polish commission that is investigating this event is claiming that Russia was responsible for that crash.

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/polish-panel-russia-polish-leaders-plane-crash-84011174

 

[danfrodo]

9 minutes ago, akd said:

Gotta catch ‘em all:

 

Even him:

 

that is a big catch indeed!  So he basically is a 'politician' who was 100% in Putin's pocket.  And they catch him in UKR uniform??  I wonder what he's been up to?

[sburke]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

First video made me a little queasy from the camera work, but the follow up picture fixed that!  Fat load of good all those billions are doing him now.

I'm going to be very interested in hearing about how he was captured.  Very.

Steve

More interested in how he got away.  He was under house arrest until Feb 28th.  you'd have thought he would have been under close observation or actually locked up.  Were they letting him loose to see who he would contact?

[Vacillator]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

More interested in how he got away.  He was under house arrest until Feb 28th.  you'd have thought he would have been under close observation or actually locked up.  Were they letting him loose to see who he would contact?

I'm sure 'British Intelligence' was involved...

[Zeleban]

Только что, sburke сказал:

Больше интересует, как он ушел. Он значительно подозревается в подозрении до 28 февраля. можно было подумать, что он находится под пристальным наблюдением или фактически заперт. Его отпустили, чтобы посмотреть, с кем он свяжется?

He escaped from house arrest. But I thought he had been in Moscow for a long time

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

It might be now, it sure as heck wasn't in 2013. 

Even now I'd say it's more about Patriotic motivation than economically uplifting.

Perhaps our UKR friends can describe better?...

Before 2014 there was full decline of army. Our politics repeated the fatal mistake of Ukrainain socialists in 1917, when they decided that "new era coming without wars, when all nations will be brothers etc" and army was almost completely disbanded, so when Bolsheviks launched offensive, there too few forces remained to defend Ukraine. 

Since 1991 our politics told to society that Ukrainans are peaceful nation, we should be "pigeons of peace", never respond with agression on agression, we don't need in big army, because we will not attack anybody and will never be attacked, because we hadn't potential enemies etc. There were two exclusions - during Kuchma was a president. Despite he was moderate pro-Russian, in 1994 during Crimea crisis and in 2003 during Tuzla crisis his tough decisions forced Russia to cool in own ambitions. 

Army has been shortened in several stages, prestige of military was very low. Many officers retired and go to business, securiy, police or even to criminal. Among soldiers in military units reigned ugly Soviet-era semi-criminal habits, so almost all young people tried to avoid conscription in any way (bribe or gaining of officer rank in military department of university - this was pure formalism w/o any military practice or service, I myself am such "lietenant", which made three shots with PM for two years)

Attempts of reforms after 2008 war in Georgia failed because of inconsistency and indecision of authorities and resistans among high-ranked military, which according to Soviet habit didn't want to take any response or to do real things like increasing of real effectiveness of trops.

This looks weird, but most sucessfull attempt ot reforms were when pro-Russian Yanukovich came to power in 2010. In this time we have territorial contest with Romania for the shelf around Zmiinyi island, so Romania suddenly became unspoken potential enemy. There was defensive strategy vision was passed, according to which we could expext "border conflict of low intensity" in middle-time perspective. The vision of army was "small, but high-mobile professional troops, equipped with modernized Ukrainain weapon". Main focus - international cooperation, international maneuvers (both NATO and CIS/Russia), peacekeeping operation etc. Army was shortened again. Russian agents in MoD (and minister himself, citizen of Russia) made all to foil development of new Ukrainian weapon - project of ballistic missile Sapsan was cancelled, BM Oplot program remained w/o funding year by year, delayed building of new corvette and many other. Because of profesioanl army was claimed, MoD issued an order to liquidate all databeses in regional enlistment offices about persons, liablle to military service. So, when 2014 came, we met this crisis with completely disrupted mobilization system, with many "cadred" brigades, which in real had 200-400 of personnel, with faulty vehicles etc. But despite this, our "frontier soul", awake on Maidan and capability to decentralized self-organization saved us from full catastrophe.        

Edited April 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[Sarjen]

On 4/11/2022 at 2:38 AM, Benjamin Ritchie-Hook said:

Yes, Cold War might finally solve its glaring omission of the Dutch armed forces.

You spelled german wrong.

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Where is all the French military equipment send to Ukraine?

Or is there any? Sending even less than Germany?

Can´t be that much...Less than Germany? Is that even possible?

 

 

[Taranis]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Where is all the French military equipment send to Ukraine?

Or is there any? Sending even less than Germany?

It was stated previously that MILANs were send but not really much. There is shadow around the weapon delivery by France. Probably due to the presidential election (next and final turn next week). It could be a deal with UA to not really show what is gived or waiting the re-election of Macron before sending more. Personaly, I d'on't think there is as much given as other countries like Germany or UK but I think we only see a little part of what we gave and more is gived by France than we think (at least I hope). It could also be needed to be shadowed for enabling to Macron to negotiate with Putin (even if it's useless...)
Not military thing but a good for me, Gendarmes (like military police) and specialist are send at Bucha to investigate and helping Ukrainian police on Russian warcrimes. It will be vital to have proof in a really wait La Haye trial after the war.

[FancyCat]

There is a divide in German government that Ukraine is taking advantage of to pressure for more heavy equipment. Even as Zelensky rejected a meeting with the German President, a meeting with leading members of the German Parliamentary committees and from the 3 governing parties was announced with the Ukrainian parliament.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1513907436012331017?t=_j5X465R7lVvpX1sQupb9A&s=19

Edited April 12, 2022 by FancyCat

[dan/california]

Too funny not to repost it here.

[sburke]

55 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Information Dominance.  Russia completely failed on this one, which is odd for what was supposed to the Dark Sith Empire of Cyberwarfare.  I don't think they really understood what it was capable of, "so why worry?" type thing - massive Kruger-Dunning whoopsie there.  However, how do you control/deny or shut down the modern information space?  You point to Startlink but there are all sorts of ad hoc networking solutions.  

In Russia's case I think that is part and parcel of a flawed perception of how quickly they could overrun Ukraine... and why the FSB is in the middle of a purge. (yeah that is really going to help your war effort).  I also expect that early on at least since last spring (likely much earlier) Ukrainian and Western intelligence agencies have been extremely active in looking for vulnerabilities hence that FBI announcement taking down the GRU botnet network 

FBI operation aims to take down massive Russian GRU botnet | TechCrunch

In a general scenario though short of connecting via satellite, information networks have some major physical bottleneck points.  Typical hubs still largely follow the telecom infrastructure for some obvious legacy reasons (physical space, power, cooling, fiber optic terminations).  There has been some diversification particularly in highly connected countries, but centralized hubs for internetworking are still a major component.  While from a mapping perspective it appears like there is widespread interconnectivity, the basics to make it functional are more hierarchical.  In addition, there are the actual data centers that host all the information collection/storage etc.  There are certainly critical points that could at least disrupt whether some storekeeper in Irpin could upload pictures via their mobile.

 

 

[Aragorn2002]

19 minutes ago, Sarjen said:

You spelled german wrong.

There's usually something wrong with his posts. 

[Huba]

49 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Remember that plane crash that killed the president of Poland in 2010?

A special Polish commission that is investigating this event is claiming that Russia was responsible for that crash.

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/polish-panel-russia-polish-leaders-plane-crash-84011174

 

If you're not versed in Polish internal politics it might sound serious, but it isn't. PiS (the current ruling party) blamed Russia and the then ruling Civic Platform for the crash in Smoleńsk since it happened, before any investigation started, and this conspiracy theory helped it grab the power in 2015.

After PiS came to power, this "special" commission was created as a away to keep the craziest of the leaders of PiS party, Macierewicz, busy so he didn't get in Kaczynskis' way. It existed for 7 years, siphoning money from the budget and at the moment nobody except the most hardcore loons treats it seriously. The commission made a bunch of accusations while producing no evidence whatsoever. The news of it finally finishing work didn't even made it to the headlines very much.

Also, as this is  my first post on this forum: Hello everyone  This thread was recommended to me as concentrated on analysis and not pointless feces throwing, and after reading a large part of it I have to say the the level of insight it provides is really impressive. 

Edited April 12, 2022 by Huba
spelling

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

In Russia's case I think that is part and parcel of a flawed perception of how quickly they could overrun Ukraine... and why the FSB is in the middle of a purge. (yeah that is really going to help your war effort).  I also expect that early on at least since last spring (likely much earlier) Ukrainian and Western intelligence agencies have been extremely active in looking for vulnerabilities hence that FBI announcement taking down the GRU botnet network 

FBI operation aims to take down massive Russian GRU botnet | TechCrunch

In a general scenario though short of connecting via satellite, information networks have some major physical bottleneck points.  Typical hubs still largely follow the telecom infrastructure for some obvious legacy reasons (physical space, power, cooling, fiber optic terminations).  There has been some diversification particularly in highly connected countries, but centralized hubs for internetworking are still a major component.  While from a mapping perspective it appears like there is widespread interconnectivity, the basics to make it functional are more hierarchical.  In addition, there are the actual data centers that host all the information collection/storage etc.  There are certainly critical points that could at least disrupt whether some storekeeper in Irpin could upload pictures via their mobile.

 

 

I agree, I have no idea why Russia failed to crush the Ukrainian information architecture.  That, is a primary failing that led them to this mess and they should have known better.   A bunch of civilians providing reams of open source while your military backbone is still up has put Ukrainian defenders so far out in front I am not sure Russia can catch them.  Then the value of getting that open source out to the world probably did more to sway public opinion - and by extension politicians - than anything else.  One of the key indicators that something was very wrong for the Russians was about 48 hours in when it dawned on me "why am I seeing Ukrainian social media feeds?"  Further, ok, so Russia says "screw you, you can have your Toc-Tic...shirtless bears..etc", everything points to the fact that they did not do the same for their own troops.

In the future, I am not sure where IT is going but I am pretty sure it is "everywhere" so "stopping the signal" is going to get harder and harder, not easier.  What this war has proven is that ignoring information is crazy, like ignoring integration of air power into land battle...wait...whoops.  

[Haiduk]

Mariupol. Reportedly several hundreds of marines could in unknown way to join with Azov and other forces in Azovstal plant and port area:  https://t.me/mariupolnow/6227

 

Edited April 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

Just now, The_Capt said:

I agree, I have no idea why Russia failed to crush the Ukrainian information architecture.  That, is a primary failing that led them to this mess and they should have known better.   A bunch of civilians providing reams of open source while your military backbone is still up has put Ukrainian defenders so far out in front I am not sure Russia can catch them.  Then the value of getting that open source out to the world probably did more to sway public opinion - and by extension politicians - than anything else.  One of the key indicators that something was very wrong for the Russians was about 48 hours in when it dawned on me "why am I seeing Ukrainian social media feeds?"  Further, ok, so Russia says "screw you, you can have your Toc-Tic...shirtless bears..etc", everything points to the fact that they did not do the same for their own troops.

In the future, I am not sure where IT is going but I am pretty sure it is "everywhere" so "stopping the signal" is going to get harder and harder, not easier.  What this war has proven is that ignoring information is crazy, like ignoring integration of air power into land battle...wait...whoops.  

Maybe someone who is actually Ukrainian can correct me if wrong but maybe outsiders are underestimating the level of internet infrastructure in Ukraine and underestimating how digital Ukraine is?

I think there is a certain degree of ignorance of pre-war Ukraine that many Eastern European states are brushed with concerning economics.

Also notable, Russia is pretty connected, at least urban Russia via the internet. The idea that Russia can do a wall dividing Russia and the rest of the world is sorta overstated?

[Harmon Rabb]

13 minutes ago, Huba said:

If you're not versed in Polish internal politics it might sound serious, but it isn't. PiS (the current ruling party) blamed Russia and the then ruling Civic Platform for the crash in Smoleńsk since it happened, before any investigation started, and this conspiracy theory helped it grab the power in 2015.

After PiS came to power, this "special" commission was created as a away to keep the craziest of the leaders of PiS party, Macierewicz, busy so he didn't get in Kaczynskis' way. It existed for 7 years, siphoning money from the budget and at the moment nobody except the most hardcore loons treats it seriously. The commission made a bunch of accusations while producing no evidence whatsoever. The news of it finally finishing work didn't even made it to the headlines very much.

Also, as this is  my first post on this forum: Hello everyone  This thread was recommended to me as concentrated on analysis and not pointless feces throwing, and after reading a large part of it I have to say the the level of insight it provides is really impressive. 

Thank you for providing some context for that story and welcome aboard!

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Maybe someone who is actually Ukrainian can correct me if wrong but maybe outsiders are underestimating the level of internet infrastructure in Ukraine and underestimating how digital Ukraine is?

I think there is a certain degree of ignorance of pre-war Ukraine that many Eastern European states are brushed with concerning economics.

Also notable, Russia is pretty connected, at least urban Russia via the internet. The idea that Russia can do a wall dividing Russia and the rest of the world is sorta overstated?

I have no doubt Ukraine is highly connected but if you are going to lob dozens of cruise missiles and air strikes, hit the information architecture as a priority as opposed to freakin baby-hospitals.  I mean "c'mon!" use cyber to hijack and control what you can, and then all those fancy hypersonics to actually hit something that matters.   Of course to do that they would need some form of Joint Targeting architecture built around a unified Joint Command...ok, now I am getting pulled into "the Russian's suck" too.

[Aragorn2002]

19 minutes ago, Huba said:

If you're not versed in Polish internal politics it might sound serious, but it isn't. PiS (the current ruling party) blamed Russia and the then ruling Civic Platform for the crash in Smoleńsk since it happened, before any investigation started, and this conspiracy theory helped it grab the power in 2015.

After PiS came to power, this "special" commission was created as a away to keep the craziest of the leaders of PiS party, Macierewicz, busy so he didn't get in Kaczynskis' way. It existed for 7 years, siphoning money from the budget and at the moment nobody except the most hardcore loons treats it seriously. The commission made a bunch of accusations while producing no evidence whatsoever. The news of it finally finishing work didn't even made it to the headlines very much.

Also, as this is  my first post on this forum: Hello everyone  This thread was recommended to me as concentrated on analysis and not pointless feces throwing, and after reading a large part of it I have to say the the level of insight it provides is really impressive. 

But it ain't impossible, ain't it? Reminded me of general Sikorsky at the time.

Edited April 12, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Also notable, Russia is pretty connected, at least urban Russia via the internet. The idea that Russia can do a wall dividing Russia and the rest of the world is sorta overstated?

We called it "splinternet" One of the projects I got sucked into before I retired was defining at various degrees the impact on our telecom network if we had to divorce ourselves from Chinese (Russian, Saudi, Ethiopian) network access.  As a private firm you have some options, but when you get to countrywide it can get really difficult.  Case in point was when Ethiopia was hitting their high school exams they literally shut down their external internet to prevent cheating for two weeks.  Ethiopia: Internet shutdown to “prevent high school exam leaks” – The Ethiopian Satellite Television and Radio (ESAT) (ethsat.com)

The problem becomes how does business and gov't function in that space?  Even Peskov has used a vpn to get around Russian censorship

Putin spokesman says he uses a VPN in Russia, where the news and social media are heavily censored (yahoo.com)

So Russia hasn't gone full on blocking yet.  Part of the project I mentioned included a what if for a full shutdown.

[FancyCat]

Regarding France, maybe the concern with blasting them is due to the ongoing Presidential election between Macron and Le Pen. Would not do any good for Macron to get criticism, not with Le Pen basically having Putin's stamp of approval.

Once the election finishes, I could see military aid ramping up. Something to think of, if I were the military industrial complex, having Ukraine get NATO armaments and equipment, would serve nicely as the beginning of integrating Ukraine into NATO and dovetail nicely with future weapon sales. If I were France, I would definitely offer a Rafale or several to Ukraine lest the U.S gets in with their F-16s.

[Huba]

5 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

But it ain't impossible, ain't it?

It isn't, just highly improbable. What is impossible is that this commission would prove it, even if it was right. They didn't even have access to the wreckage, all they did was reinterpretation of evidence produced by first commission mixed with clinical tinfoilhattery . They even accused the leader of first commission of lying, lost the defamation case and had to apologize. It was a circus.

Edited April 12, 2022 by Huba

[dan/california]

Getting back to if this was sabotage or not. This looks like the connection to the abutment just failed under load. But if so where is the derailed train. I would think it fail with a train ON it if was due to simply overworking a not great bridge? Maybe someone wasn't quite judicious enough with those handy linear cutting charges and the bridge failed immediately? Instead of under load later as intended?

[Der Zeitgeist]

@HubaAh, a fellow refugee from that other forum that shall not be named. Welcome!