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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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18 minutes ago, A Canadian Cat said:

Well that is just gross. I will apologize for Canada's failing here even though I also didn't vote for the government responsible (not the one @acrashb blamed : - )

There are stories coming out of other issues involving RT and Canada too. That story that broke of alt right influences being funded by RT - yeah it was a Canadian Couple at the center of laundering the money for the project. At the same time it turns out several Canadian nut farm influences were also funded by them. I look forward to seeing them prosecuted.

I'm referring to this story: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/what-we-know-about-the-two-canadian-influencers-accused-of-russian-propaganda/ar-AA1q8e9l

Looks like Canada has been a conduit for Russian propaganda. I hope there are prosecutions. 

Well the PM and the federal government didn't have anything to do with funding that film. At least I cannot find any evidence of federal funding. Could be there I suppose but the story is that Ontario funded it via TVO:

https://globalnews.ca/news/10737637/ukraine-russians-at-war-film-tiff/

Yuck.

I would write my MPP to complain but I am afraid that would help them justify cancelling TVO - which despite this terrible gaff is a good organization.

Federal government is officially opposed to funding this - I do hope the finance minister checked to be sure the feds didn't contribute funds to it (https://globalnews.ca/news/10742444/ukraine-russians-at-war-funding-freeland/😞

 

I am a bit confused as to the nature of the actual film in question. It does not sound like propaganda when it shows the declining moral and loss of faith of Russian fighting forces. The Ukrainian counsel guy admits never seeing the film but is still calling it propaganda. Freedom of the arts and journalism, which this sort of documentary falls into, is protected under the charter. So a legal argument would need to be made that it violates hate laws or govern policy. The funding was several layers down, looks like it was provincial through a broadcaster.

Until I saw the thing it is hard to say if it is a pro-Russian film, or is it anti-war from the Russian side? That first one likely violates funding policies, the second does not. Those influencers should be jailed as foreign agents, but considering we have MPs with hands in their pockets, we have bigger problems.

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On 9/7/2024 at 7:31 AM, The_Capt said:

Sure, but the US did not stay as a result of deep warm feeling for the plight of the Afghan people either. Nor was that the reason for the war in the first place. Like Vietnam, a quagmire is a quagmire for as much harsh domestic political calculus as foreign policy. The internal harsh calculus was for each party to blame the other and kick the can down the road until someone gets stuck with the bill. They all did this until it finally landed on Biden who decided he could take the hit or was forced to. None of that has anything to do with a free and democratic Afghanistan, which all became political collateral damage in the great US game. 

The harsh external calculus of Afghanistan was that the US is the global power, at the center of a global order. And as such does not cut and run. If there was a way to do that in that country 12 years earlier the US would have bolted.

Anyone working at a national level outside of the US already knows that relying on the good-wishes of the American population is a slippery beast. You can only count on so much before internal political power games hijack all those warm regards. 

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the US top brass telling Obama and Trump (both of whom were deferential to them imo), that they could achieve something approaching US goals if only they had more time, troops, and material?

Edited by Sequoia
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10 minutes ago, BarendJanNL said:

Way premature and given how Kursk is turning maybe off-note. The key to manoeuvre is tempo. It is about delinking an opponents C2, capability and logistics from reality. One can “do a manoeuvre” anywhere as a tactical effect, but it needs to be translated into decisions at an operational level.

Kursk looks like it received pressure but it was not able to dislocate the RA writ large. The response was slow and clumsy but finally stopped the UA and now looks like it is slowly going to push back. Much like tanks and mech, Kursk is being upheld as a “watershed” moment but it fails to demonstrate results. A drive that cut off the M2 and M4 - a drive to Voronezh, would have constituted an operational manoeuvre. The results would have been profound and if linked to operations down south could uncouple the RA.

The problem is not that “manoeuvre is dead” it is that the means to achieve it have shifted. With enough armor, mech and logistics a force could pull off the drive I am talking about. But the cost has gone up to insane levels. The losses of such a run would be immense as a force tried to sustain an LOC 2-300 kms long. We saw the RA try this and they got cut up so badly entire fronts collapsed. Denial means “cost of entry is too high”. Defence means “can’t do it, ever.” This is why I say Denial primacy but not Defence…yet.

Until we can figure out the means to conduct manoeuvre it will remain a supporting function in this war, not the main one…which is counter to how we have been training in the West for nigh on 45 years or so.

 

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20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am a bit confused as to the nature of the actual film in question. It does not sound like propaganda when it shows the declining moral and loss of faith of Russian fighting forces. The Ukrainian counsel guy admits never seeing the film but is still calling it propaganda.

True - it's never good when you hear someone say "I haven't seen it but it's definitely X"

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Freedom of the arts and journalism, which this sort of documentary falls into, is protected under the charter. So a legal argument would need to be made that it violates hate laws or govern policy. The funding was several layers down, looks like it was provincial through a broadcaster.

I didn't think anyone was saying it violated laws. Just that it was in bad taste and the creation was motivated to support a Russian war of aggression.

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Until I saw the thing it is hard to say if it is a pro-Russian film, or is it anti-war from the Russian side? That first one likely violates funding policies, the second does not.

Indeed. I'm suspicious given who created the film and comments along the lines that they never saw Russian soldiers committing war crimes so they didn't believe they happened. 

 

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Those influencers should be jailed as foreign agents, but considering we have MPs with hands in their pockets, we have bigger problems.

I'm OK with both classes of people getting it big trouble - including jail.

Edited by A Canadian Cat
Ooops clarify the creator seems to have intended not the funder
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Just now, Sequoia said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the US top brass telling Obama and Trump (both of whom were deferential to them imo, that they could achieve something approaching US goals if only they had more time, troops, and material?

Depends when. Obama did get talked into a troop surge, happened around 2009/2010.  Not sure about Trump but by ‘14 we had bigger problems in the MENA with Iraq, Syria and ISIL…not to mention Crimea. Everyone pretty much agreed that Afghanistan was a lost cause without planning on staying for a century. Biden finally made the tough call…and we got the Fall of Kabul.

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3 minutes ago, A Canadian Cat said:

I didn't think anyone was saying it violated laws. Just that it was in bad taste and motivated to support a Russian war of aggression.

Heh, well you and I both know if we didn’t fund things in bad taste the CBC would not exist.

As to warcrimes, I am not sure every film made about this war is pro-Russian if it does not highlight warcrimes. I mean this whole damned war is a crime. But not every story is about that. A documentary on failing morale and loss of faith in a war can be incredibly powerful. Especially with home audiences - there is a question: is Russia going to allow this film to be seen at home?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russians_at_War

Given this write up, I am less sure. This does not sound pro-Russian at all. Beyond the fact it shows Russian soldiers as human beings - which they are in the end. That said, they made their choices and get what is coming to them - decide or get talked into an immoral and illegal war, take your chances.

But showing just how bad things are for Russian troops does not sound like a positive spin job to me. Hell, the crew snuck into a unit to pull this off.

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1 hour ago, A Canadian Cat said:

I would write my MPP to complain but I am afraid that would help them justify cancelling TVO - which despite this terrible gaff is a good organization.

Due to the backlash, TVO did walk back on promoting the movie. So they seemingly were unaware of the nature of the movie.

However, TIFF issued a statement that the airing and promotion from their side will proceed. 

Coincidentally, TIFF seems to have received albeit very minor funds in the past (2015-2022?) from russian ministery of culture through ROSKINO & 'russian cinema fund' - both russian state funded. These organisations have had multiple cooperations and promotions with TIFF, my guess is there are some very russophile people working there.

Btw, on the board of 'russian cinema fund' is Olga Lyubimova Borisovna a propagandist and 2023 sanctioned individual. 

---- 

As for "snucking in" and other arguments, this is what the director claims to give her legitimacy in the west. She worked for RT her career and is half russian.

The russian army is a failure but there are about 100 roadblocks that she would have needed permits for. The highest "official" she interacted with is a Brigade Commander, there is a 0% chance these are not watched by FSB or a soldier "talked" about it during her 7 months in occupied Ukraine.

Edited by Kraft
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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Depends when. Obama did get talked into a troop surge, happened around 2009/2010.  Not sure about Trump but by ‘14 we had bigger problems in the MENA with Iraq, Syria and ISIL…not to mention Crimea. Everyone pretty much agreed that Afghanistan was a lost cause without planning on staying for a century. Biden finally made the tough call…and we got the Fall of Kabul.

I'll quibble with the last bit.  Trump made the tough call to get out of Afghanistan lock, stock, and barrel.  This was the call that Obama should have made after the "surge" failed to defeat the Taliban.  Trump promised to get us out and he kinda-sorta did, but in reality the plan to withdraw (which was a mess from the start) got punted to Biden's lap.  Biden either had to execute Trump's plan or reversed it, which was not politically feasible.  So a terrible plan (Trump) that was poorly executed (Trump and Biden) resulted in the fall of Kabul.

The great irony of this is that Trump and the Republicans slam Biden for the terrible end to the mission, yet if Trump hadn't dithered for several years the disaster would have happened under his term in office.  And yes, a disaster was pretty much assured primarily because the plan was poorly planned and those executing it were pretty much the same people under Biden as were in place under Trump.

Anyway, sorry for the OT rant.  The general narrative about the messy end is a pet peeve of mine.

Steve

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2 hours ago, BarendJanNL said:

I'll be reading this tonight, but superficially I'm not impressed with any arguments that claim "maneuver is back".  It's like someone watching the stock market go up in the middle of a long term economic crisis and saying "the market is back!".  Too soon to say, and personally I don't think the argument holds up with the information we have.

Steve

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6 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Historical city St. Petersburg, 'moderates' screaming "God is with us". Maybe "Gott mit uns" was too difficult to pronounce? Crowd size compared to anti war/ anti mobilisation protests is quite striking.

 

 

couple quibbles

1. What do you mean moderates, or is that simply sarcasm?

2 Hard to assess a Russian demonstration for the Gov't as we know they pay and bus people in.

3. Comparing to an actual anti war rally where the police will come in, break heads and bust folks doesn't really hold up well.

So if all those folks are so much behind the war effort are there buses waiting at the end of the rally to send them to the front?  One could hope.  I'd expect that rally to get a lot smaller if there were. 😎

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1 hour ago, sburke said:

1. What do you mean moderates, or is that simply sarcasm?

Sarcasm, these are ultra nationalists / fashists / neo-nazis

Quote

2 Hard to assess a Russian demonstration for the Gov't as we know they pay and bus people in.

True, although I am unsure if putin is supporting these groups further as they are a looming danger to him in case of continued failure in SVO, not the peace doves.

In the last couple of days, "thirteenth", a popular nat TG channel, uploaded videos in which he was calling for not just the top brass but also putin ! himself to face serious physical consequences (I think a buddy of his died😂) for continued failures and bad corrupt commanders that are not reprimanded. The Videos have since been deleated. This sort of direct criticism of the tsar himself has been steadily growing, not as fast as Id like though.

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Comparing to an actual anti war rally where the police will come in, break heads and bust folks doesn't really hold up well.

Maidan🙂 with real motivation, people fight, despite Berkut, snipers and russian bussed in thugs.

Quote

So if all those folks are so much behind the war effort are there buses waiting at the end of the rally to send them to the front?

While hating is cheap, standing in a trench for it is a little too pricy for these characters

Edited by Kraft
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30 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'll quibble with the last bit.  Trump made the tough call to get out of Afghanistan lock, stock, and barrel.  This was the call that Obama should have made after the "surge" failed to defeat the Taliban.  Trump promised to get us out and he kinda-sorta did, but in reality the plan to withdraw (which was a mess from the start) got punted to Biden's lap.  Biden either had to execute Trump's plan or reversed it, which was not politically feasible.  So a terrible plan (Trump) that was poorly executed (Trump and Biden) resulted in the fall of Kabul.

The great irony of this is that Trump and the Republicans slam Biden for the terrible end to the mission, yet if Trump hadn't dithered for several years the disaster would have happened under his term in office.  And yes, a disaster was pretty much assured primarily because the plan was poorly planned and those executing it were pretty much the same people under Biden as were in place under Trump.

Anyway, sorry for the OT rant.  The general narrative about the messy end is a pet peeve of mine.

Steve

Ya, that tracks. I recall Biden inherited the mess. The messy end to that war is a pet peeve for many of us. But it is really not OT. Goes to show how politics gets played when it comes to wars.

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If I may digress briefly on what is the Canadian National Character. It seems to me, with the exception of Quebec, which is unique, and damn proud if not belligerent to say so, regions on both sides of the border have more in common than regions in their own country that are a fair distance away. I think Steve himself will tell you he would feel more at home in New Brunswick than, say, Florida. 

In short, both very large nations are an accumulation of different regions, each region with their own characters. Though some regions in both countries have shared characteristics, the two countries are a different mix of regions. Together the collection of regions in each country have a collective feeling of belonging to their respective nations. The many similarities in each nation's history can make them feel alike, especially to outsiders, but there are also enough differences in their respective histories and certainly in the collection of regions of each to reflect, IMHO, a unique character for each.

I guess what I'm trying to say is the character of both Canada and the US is actually a collection of varied characters. I hope that makes a bit of sense,   

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10 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Well first off anyone tossing Latin phrases around as window dressing to show us all how very smart they are will most definitely remain on my ignore list.

My bad, I thought hearing a language commonly spoken in your youth would warm that old stony heart...

Steve, TheCaptn and Billbindc especially have added great points about the Western escalation management strategy, which I have read with interest and I thank them all, no matter whether they can see it or care for it.

@Kraft while I understand your likely annoyance about the fallacies, hypocrisy, personal jabs, dodging of questions and other such things TheCaptn is fond of when it suits him, I would personally miss his analytical posts and commentary based on his career and experience when they happen. At least for me, they were a big reason why I began to read the thread from page 1, along with what many diverse other "grognards" have been adding.

Arrogance, stubborness and bad faith can be found in the nicest people and the best experts at times. So maybe you will continue to be a happily ignored reader like me. 

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Except most Old World Countries originated from existing unique peoples. New World Countries are a multitude of peoples creating not a melting pot, but a better analogy of that of a stew where each group adds their own ingredient. The mix of ingredients differs, giving  different types of stews.

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The Russian command seems to be trying to deploy the maximum possible amount of forces and resources on the adjacent flanks of its troop groups (GV) "Center" and "South"...

In the context of the implementation of this aspiration, on the left (southern) flank of the offensive of the 2nd Combined Arms Army (OVA) and the 90th Tank Division (TD) of the GV "Center", as well as to the south, the enemy, in addition to the previously deployed units and formations, ADDITIONALLY deployed a significant part of its 1st Army Corps (AK), from the GV "South", in particular:

- 1st "Slavic" separate motorized rifle brigade (OMSBR)

- 9th separate motorized rifle brigade

- 114th separate motorized rifle brigade

- a number of units of the 110th separate motorized rifle brigade

- 428th separate motorized rifle regiment (SMRR)

In turn, from the south (from the Krasnogorovka side) the enemy, as part of the Guards Forces "South", also deployed significant forces:

- 5th separate motorized rifle brigade

- the main forces of the 110th separate motorized rifle brigade

- at least one battalion of the 114th separate motorized rifle brigade

Thus, at the moment the enemy is trying to encircle our troops on the bridgehead, east of the Volchya River, in the direction of the village of Nevelskoye with the forces of almost the entire 1st Army Corps (minus one, the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade) + a full-fledged tank division (the 90th Tank Division, which has all three of its tank regiments (TR) deployed in this direction - the 6th, 80th and 239th TR + the 228th MRR).

In essence, in order to solve the "problem of the southern flank" of its 2nd OVA (Selidovo area and Gornyak-Kurakhovka line), which was targeting Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, the enemy command of the GV "Center" and "South" forces created another, a kind of "temporary combined arms army", consisting of an army corps and a tank division...

And it gives results...

At present, the enemy's advanced units are already fighting in the village of Ukrainsk (at least in its southern and eastern parts), have managed to push our troops south of Novogrodovka (the Ukrainian Armed Forces have apparently left the village of Marinovka), and have also reached the northern outskirts of the village of Gornyak...

However, the most unpleasant thing in this regard is the fact of the breakthrough of the enemy's advanced units between Ukrainsk and Selidovo, from the Memrik side... And although the enemy has not been able to advance into the city of Selidovo itself from the Mikhailovka side for about a week now, this breakthrough to the south of the city still significantly complicates the overall situation with its defense. Especially if we recall the persistent and persistent attacks of the enemy in the direction of Selidovo from the Novogrodovka side, through the already captured Marinovka, which continue almost non-stop...

But it seems that the Ukrainian command is fully aware of the seriousness of the current situation there.

For, obviously, it had already begun a gradual withdrawal of its advanced units from the entire Nevelsk uprising in order to avoid their encirclement.

The advanced units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are retreating gradually, from line to line, waging stubborn rearguard battles in the Galitsynovka area and north of Krasnogorovka.

They will probably first withdraw to the Zhelazalnoye Pervoye-Zvezdnoye line, and then concentrate on the Gornyak-Kurakhovka line, straightening the front line. At the same time, the key factor for carrying out this complex and important maneuver is keeping the village of Gornyak under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

If the enemy manages to capture it in the near future, then the situation will "very sharply" and "very dramatically" worsen.

2. As for the Pokrovsky direction itself , where the main forces of the 2nd combined arms army (OVA) of the enemy are operating, namely the 27th motorized rifle division (MSD) in full force, the 15th and 30th separate motorized rifle brigades (SMRB) and part of the forces of the 114th SMRB, the situation here has not exactly stabilized (since the enemy continues to conduct fairly intensive attack/assault operations here and has made some progress), but, let's say, has lost momentum.

The enemy's advances here are minimal and are mainly limited to two areas - the area west of Novogrodovka (towards Lysovka and Sukhoi Yar) and Grodovka itself (or more precisely, its southeastern part).

In essence, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to take advantage of the natural barrier provided to them by the Zhuravka and Kazeny Torets rivers...

At the moment, the most threatening in terms of further enemy advancement is the Novogrodovka - Sukhoi Yar direction, where the enemy managed to advance towards Lysovka, acting along the Solenaya River, this is the closest mark to Pokrovsk to which the enemy advanced.

And although it is obvious that the attention of the enemy's Guards Command "Center" is currently focused primarily on the Selidovo-Kurakhovka section, where, in fact, fierce battles are currently taking place, the purpose of which is the enemy's attempt to cut off our forward units east of the Ukrainsk-Kurakhovka line, however, in the Pokrovsk direction itself the situation looks no less difficult, although not at all hopeless.

The fact is that it is obvious that the enemy cannot carry out a "classic" "bypass and envelopment" operation against the city of Pokrovsk at the moment, for two main reasons...

- As long as Selidovo holds out, the hypothetical southern front of this "coverage" is very much in question...

- Just as the "theoretically possible" breakthrough of the enemy to the Mirnograd-Malinovka line (the "starting" line for the hypothetical northern face of such a "bypass") will have some real prospects only in the event of a breakthrough of the enemy beyond the Zhuravka and Kazeny Torets rivers, which is not currently in sight...

So what is left for the enemy?

That's right, to continue the frontal ("head-on") offensive towards Pokrovsk from the south-east direction, as he had done until now, along the Avdeevka-Pokrovsk railway...

Have we seen something like this somewhere before!? (This has happened before...)

True, the same thing happened (and continues to happen) in the area of the city of Chasov Yar, in the Kramatorsk direction, where the enemy, in the same way, "ran head-on" into the "Seversky Donets - Donbass" canal, unable to bypass the city, neither from the north nor from the south, and was forced to stop, having managed, at the cost of exerting all his forces, to "bite off" only the eastern quarter of the city, but unable to force (cross) the canal itself within the city limits...

While the Ukrainian Armed Forces control Selidovo , as well as the Shevchenko-Chunishino-Dachynskoye-Novy Trud area, and hold positions along the Zhuravka and Kazeny Torets rivers, the enemy is left to "gnaw through" the Ukrainian defenses towards Pokrovsk exclusively on both sides of the above-mentioned railway.

That is, to operate in a relatively narrow strip between the Solonenka and Zhuravka rivers (this is approximately 5 km), hoping that he will eventually be able to crawl to the south-eastern and eastern outskirts of Pokrovsk and “get a foothold” there.

And, apparently, the Russian command is fully aware of all the delights of such a situation. That is why it is now so "sharply", strongly and noticeably "concerned" with the flanks of its group, which is aimed at Pokrovsk. No one wants to receive a sudden and harsh "push" to the side, in the direction of the "main attack", even if not very powerful and even if only from one flank, at the most crucial moment of implementing its entire plan for the summer-autumn campaign.

This will still be extremely noticeable for the content of the entire plan and its main element. Especially when, by this very moment, a whole heap (or better to say, a large part) of the forces and resources accumulated with such difficulties earlier have ALREADY been spent on its implementation...

Therefore, we will see the main (principal) attempt, a kind of "daddy" of the enemy to take Pokrovsk not right now (that is, in the near future), but a little later...

And, today, there is a very high probability that it will look exactly like the relatively recent "assault" on the city of Chasov Yar in the conditions of the existence of the Klishchievsky bridgehead of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in particular:

- Concentration of forces and resources in a relatively narrow area...
- Their "excessive massing", with high tactical density of combat formations...
- The appearance of the enemy's operational reserves literally "at the last moment" and their dispersal throughout the entire zone...

https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/2178

Series of longer posts, as usual, by Mashovets on the Donetsk front. The summary is: Ukrainians remain hard-pressed and are pulling back, while Russia is running out of steam for offensives in some ways (they don't get faster, but slower), but is also able to bring in simply more and more reserves into the area to continue to push the Ukrainians further back. 

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Does this qualify as an example of mass on modern battlefield?  A lot of footage chopped together, certainly makes it look like a lot of things have been blowing up.  Be interesting to see uncut vision like K-2 publishes.

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46th Brigade of Ukraine repulsed the biggest assault on the Brigades position. 46 units of Russian AFVs were used in the assault: 

“On September 12, Russians attacked with four waves of assaults from 5:45 a.m. to noon on the positions of the battalions of 46th Brigade. A total of 46 units of armored and not so armored vehicles fell on us. 

And the record was set! Such a number of destroyed and damaged enemy equipment in one day in the direction of responsibility of the 46th Brigade has never really happened. With effective fire from all available means of destruction 15 units (9 BMPs, 2 tanks, 2 APCs and 2 motorcycles) were destroyed and 11 BMPs were disabled."

 

Edited by Fenris
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31 minutes ago, Sequoia said:

Except most Old World Countries originated from existing unique peoples. New World Countries are a multitude of peoples creating not a melting pot, but a better analogy of that of a stew where each group adds their own ingredient. The mix of ingredients differs, giving  different types of stews.

So like France was the gauls/celts, then romans, then Norse....... oh wait.  Skip that .. So like England was the Celts, then the Romans, then the Angles, Saxons, Jutes, Danes hmmmm

More like the old world was a melting pot of whoever could move based on existing transportation means then the Old World exported that to well pretty much everyone else. 😛

 

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1 hour ago, Sequoia said:

Except most Old World Countries originated from existing unique peoples. New World Countries are a multitude of peoples creating not a melting pot, but a better analogy of that of a stew where each group adds their own ingredient. The mix of ingredients differs, giving  different types of stews.

Ooooo, I like that! I do have to say though that I feel even though “assimilated,” I sense that many regions still retain the cultural aspects of their “original” emigrants. For example Scot/Irish in Appalachia, Germans in Pennsylvania, Scandinavians and Eastern Europeans in Minnesota, Wisconsin, etc. However, the different groups, while maintaining their own cultures, have also assimilated into the general culture of the U.S.

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