How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[paxromana]

34 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

Well actually Dresden was a military target. Once the Soviets launched their offensive in Jan.45, the Germans pulled the 6th SS Panzer Army out of the “Bulge” and sent it east by rail. Stalin asked the western Allies what they could to to slow it down. Allied AF HQ identified 5 choke points, railway marshalling yards in Eastern Germany that were “choke points”. One was in the center of Dresden. All five were hit.

It was a major railroad nexus and, IIRC, it also had optics factories ... for things like gunsights (artillery, tanks, aircraft). Given that that's what the allies were aiming *at* was legitimate. Given that the fact that the accuracy of the bomb sight tech was rubbish it meant a lot of bombs fell outside of the target zone.

ISTR that the Allies regarded 'accurate' targetting was if 50% the bombs dropped were within 2? 5? miles of the aiming point.

There had been much discussion in the inter-war years about this sort of problem and the idea of 'sanctuary cities' was floated ... but, despite the best efforts of the Nation States involved no-one could figure out how to prevent the idea being gamed by the inevitably less honourable amongst any parties to a war.

I understand that things have, theoretically, been tightened up since WW2 ... with the same result that the various signatories expected/feared would happen in the negotiations of the 20's and 30's.

So Dresden was a legitimate target. Any civilian casualties were an unfortunate side effect (and, of course, bombing Coventry was also legitimate, for that matter).

Edited August 18 by paxromana

[Sgt Joch]

On war crimes generally, even in WW2, there was a difference between the Law and the practice.

Under military law, as soon as a combatant surrendered, he was a POW and if he was intentionally killed, it was murder.

In practice, “surrendering” was one of the most dangerous thing you could do. Instinct when you saw an enemy soldier was generally to shoot first and ask questions later.  There was also a real risk that under the heat of the moment, in a rage or anger that POWs would be shot soon after surrendering. I tend to call these “Hot” blood crimes. Combatants from all sides were guilty of this, and officers tended to ignore these.

But there is also a second category which I would call “Cold” blood crimes, namely when POWs would be killed hours, days, weeks after they surrendered usually at the order of the ranking officer. In almost all cases, these types of crimes were committed by German or Soviet troops. There were isolated cases of these types of crimes being committed by U.S. or CW troops in Europe, but they were generally prosecuted when discovered.

[Vet 0369]

20 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Crazy evac under close fire. 

Excellent coordination of fires! That kinda show how far much of UKR military have progressed past the old Soviet tactics.

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, Sgt Joch said:

Well actually Dresden was a military target. Once the Soviets launched their offensive in Jan.45, the Germans pulled the 6th SS Panzer Army out of the “Bulge” and sent it east by rail. Stalin asked the western Allies what they could to to slow it down. Allied AF HQ identified 5 choke points, railway marshalling yards in Eastern Germany that were “choke points”. One was in the center of Dresden. All five were hit.

The difference between Dresden and Tokyo and other Japanese cities was that after Dresden was destroyed, the decision was made to never again do that to a European city because of the public outcry in Europe and the U.S. In Japan however, with the people being “Japs, Nips, Slopes, Slants, Non-White, and Asians,” the fire bombing was not only continued, but improved. Gen. LeMay actually had scientists working to determine the “best ratio of high explosives to incendiaries and napalm to do the maximum damage to the wood and paper houses of the civilian population.”

I do not excuse or condemn what the U.S. Army Air Corps did because I wasn’t born until five years after the war ended, BUT, IT WAS UNDOUBTEDLY REVENGE AND RACISM BASED! Hopefully, we have moved beyond those emotions, however Russia hasn’t, and therein lies the issue.

[sross112]

New Perun covering a lot of angles that have been discussed here.

[TheVulture]

Ukraine Air Force has released a video of a second bridge on the Seym river being put out of use (at the town of Zvannoe) - not quite collapsed. Only one bridge left now, and that's the smallest one and the one closest to the Russia-Ukraine border (about 10 miles in, at Karyzh).

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y36rdreq1o

Edited August 18 by TheVulture

[kraze]

On 8/17/2024 at 9:00 PM, Vet 0369 said:

When you lower yourself to the level of your opponent, you become that opponent! So, maybe deep down, you are Russian.

How exactly am I "lowering myself to the level of the "opponent" "?

Am I killing someone? Raping someone? Do I partake in a war, the sole goal of which is to exterminate a whole ethnicity?

Ah right, since this is 2024 and we are living in a so called "post-truth" era - "not everything is as simple", right?

So not being happy with what said "opponent" wants to do, like brutally murdering you, maybe after having some fun like torture EQUALS murdering someone after torturing him.

 I mean the whole term "opponent" ... it's not some genocidal maniac that was killing people just yesterday - it's an "opponent", you know like you and me here, meaning we just casually disagree with him on something. Like we need to have a high class, monocle-tophat kind of BS conversation and talk our differences through. And then there will be peace after he cuts my head off or something.

Edited August 18 by kraze

[omae2]

7 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

They don't have such power nor sovereignity of judgement or decisions. Power of non-Kremlin nationalists in Russia is similar to liberal opposition if not even smaller (no economical basis); we discussed about position of military as well zillion times. Last charismatic person in Putin's entourage was Prig and everybody get the memo how he finished. So Putin may be forced to parlais with Ukraine due to internal economical situation in the end, but not because bayonets will grin outside his window. I'd say chances of internal coup are even less likely than at the start of this war now.

Note that on the top of whole situation, many Russians are genuinly convinced they are slowly winning this. Several hamlets near Kursk means nothing.

They mean a lot if the Ukrainians able to hold them until the peace discussions. Without those hamlets and small towns Ukraine has nothing to offer for its demands. Right now russia say its not even in war. So in what shape or form they going to discuss peace when they are not even in a war? russia has to be forced to the negotiating table and that can only be done by the way Ukraine doing it. Not to mention the amount of POWs they get.

[danfrodo]

FFS enough of the WW2 war crime stuff, it's just wasting everyone's time.  Didn't Steve ask for a stop multiple pages ago??   

Or start a new thread where folks can go and discuss WW2 war crimes. 

 

[FancyCat]

Quote

Ukrainian FPV attack drones are currently prowling the critical Russian supply line along the E38 highway between Rylsk and Lgov in Kursk Oblast.

Russian milbloggers on the ground are calling it an "FPV kill zone".

Additional reports that Ukrainian forces have conducted remote mining operations along the road as well.

https://t.me/romanov_92/45052

Base map from @AndrewPerpetua

 

[kluge]

On 8/17/2024 at 12:15 PM, ArmouredTopHat said:

Could you not do this with drone dropped jammers in the rear lines too?

A flying platform that carries a jammer more or less fits the description of an electronic warfare aircraft.

That being said, the typical small drone doesn't have a jet engine sized alternator nor does it have endless battery capacity, which limits the types of systems a drone can jam along with the duration and effective range of the produced effects.

[Beleg85]

7 minutes ago, omae2 said:

They mean a lot if the Ukrainians able to hold them until the peace discussions. Without those hamlets and small towns Ukraine has nothing to offer for its demands. Right now russia say its not even in war. So in what shape or form they going to discuss peace when they are not even in a war? russia has to be forced to the negotiating table and that can only be done by the way Ukraine doing it. Not to mention the amount of POWs they get.

I mean yeah, but that is not internal concern from Putin's point of view, by itself. State of war is formallity at this moment.

Also first the ceasefire should take place; peace talks are long shot in such cases, if they ever happen at all.

[omae2]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

I mean yeah, but that is not internal concern from Putin's point of view, by itself. State of war is formallity at this moment.

Also first the ceasefire should take place; peace talks are long shot in such cases, if they ever happen at all.

Ofcourse its an internal issue for the bald gnome, he made a gamble and it failed. If you watch russians talking about putin they always say how rational he is, how professional. He made a decision that costed russia not just hundreds of thousands of man but even russian territory. Its a fiasco. Now that will not make the russian peoples running around with forks and torches but they wouldnt anyway, its the guys with the weapon that matters. But still its a proof that the gnome did screw up. Now the propaganda is blaming peoples below him, because they believing him like a god. So he must have been misled by a subordinate. But this is just the second state of denial. The more pressure they come under the harder to deny it. Sooner or later they will come with terms of how ****ed up what putin did. And that's the point. For that Ukraine have to push boundaries, its like in 4th generation warfare where the weaker side its trying to undermine the authority of the stronger. To crash the feeling that things are normal, that the state is well functioning, that the leadership is doing a great job. If Ukraine able to push russia into a declaration of war that will be proof of the leadership mistake. I mean if someone would ask you in 2021 what would be russia reaction if a foreign country occupy dozens of villages and small towns what would have you answer? I guess a declaration of war is one in that answer. Yet they don't dare to do it even tho it would give them more meat to throw at the problem. They are scared. That is a sign that things going into the right direction.

[Fenris]

I think this is a first

Quote

A Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopter successfully shot down enemy aerial targets at night, effectively functioning as an air defense system.

 

[acrashb]

9 hours ago, OldSarge said:

Looks like our buddy Kadyrov has a shiny new ride! Courtesy of Elon Musk.

Kadyrov says Musk gave it too him.  And, uncritically, you believe him.  Would there be a short list of other things Kadyrov has said that you believe?  Because if he said the sky was blue, I'd go outside to check first.
 

Infinitely more likely that it was a black market import.   Of course, it is possible that Musk was willing to violate Magnitsky Act  and more recent sanctions, but it wouldn't be my first thought.

Edited August 18 by acrashb

[OldSarge]

23 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Kadyrov says Musk gave it too him.  And, uncritically, you believe him.  Would there be a short list of other things Kadyrov has said that you believe?  Because if he said the sky was blue, I'd go outside to check first.
 

Infinitely more likely that it was a black market import.   Of course, it is possible that Musk was willing to violate Magnitsky Act  and more recent sanctions, but it wouldn't be my first thought.

Hit a sensitive nerve did I? Where did I say that I accepted Kadyrov's statement implicitly? No, I don't believe either Kadyrov or Musk. They're both either dishonest, disingenuous or just plain weird by any reasonable standard.

Edited August 19 by OldSarge

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, omae2 said:

The more pressure they come under the harder to deny it. Sooner or later they will come with terms of how ****ed up what putin did. And that's the point. For that Ukraine have to push boundaries, its like in 4th generation warfare where the weaker side its trying to undermine the authority of the stronger. To crash the feeling that things are normal, that the state is well functioning, that the leadership is doing a great job.

There is far more push needed to make this happen than AFU occupying several villages I am afraid. It's interesting move to be sure because number of geopolitical and military factors, but not even close enough levarage to overcome Russian passivity internally. War goes like bllood from the nose, but so what? It's not like there is anybody there hanging around Tsar's neck with a gun to do something about it.

1 hour ago, omae2 said:

If Ukraine able to push russia into a declaration of war that will be proof of the leadership mistake. I mean if someone would ask you in 2021 what would be russia reaction if a foreign country occupy dozens of villages and small towns what would have you answer? I guess a declaration of war is one in that answer. Yet they don't dare to do it even tho it would give them more meat to throw at the problem. They are scared. That is a sign that things going into the right direction.

There is lot of correct observations here. But again, we are all veeeery adaptable animals and there are dozens things that were unthinkable before 2022. They also aren't so much scare as they are calculating. I am not sold that declaration of war in itself is much more than just a piece of paper at this moment; there are some legal issues here but not something groundbreaking after these 2 years. Maybe Putin will announce it one day. Kremlin can always explain it did not expect such steadfast perfidy from the West in support of Nazis. They will figure this out; now they wait for progress in Donbas and results of elections in US.

Edited August 19 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

17 hours ago, Carolus said:

Mashovets on the developments in Kursk, specifically the Russian response.

He takes many things into account, especially the possible socio-economic consequences of mobilisation.

I find his point about time as a resource very interesting. The Kremlin needs to solve several problems yesterday, and the longer Puilo waits, the less impact his decisions will have on the current situation. But the problems is that hesitation to take certain decisions is motivated by internal factors. But that amounts to simply closing your eyes and telling your underlings "Just solve the problem!" without saying how and sending them scrambling for battalions from the motor rifle brigades deployed on the Donetsk front - which Mashovets considers inadequate, and will weaken the Russian strategy of continuous wave attacks.

As always, some really insightful stuff.  We've already talked about these very things here and came to the same conclusions he did.  Which is, in short, that Russia lacks the reserves to deal with Kursk and keep up offensive ops in the Donbas.  Period.  Mobilization, even if it doesn't cause some thing to break (will of the people, the economy, available equipment, etc.) it will take weeks to get units stood up even to cannon fodder standards.  By then Mashovets believes Ukraine will have fully completed its goals for Kursk and that is not likely to go over well.  Suicide meat waves against a highly motivated and dug in Ukrainian force has never, ever gone well for Russia.

Mashovets hints at something even more fun!  The Donbas offensive is already running out of steam due to a lack of forces and equipment.  There is no apparent, ready volunteer(ish) force to make good on that.  So what he's saying, and I agree with, is that Russia might have had to pull the trigger on mobilization just to keep the war within Ukraine going.  Since Russia's attacks, especially with mobilized meat, suffer huge casualties for little gains, it seems reasonable to presume Russia can't use the mobilized meat for BOTH Kursk and Donbas with any sort of expectation of success in either. 

Which means it has three viable options:

1. Put all mobilized in EITHER Kursk or Donbas and accepting the political and military consequences of leaving the other to Ukraine's initiative.
2. Put all mobilized in both Kursk and Donbas, risking a poor result in two places instead of one.
3. Go on the defensive in Donbas, feed a little of the mobilized meat to stabilize Kursk, and use the balance of the meat to refit existing units so that they can, in good time, become more effective militarily speaking.

I'd be shocked if Russia went with #3 because thus far they have never shown any intention of thinking that far ahead.  I think more likely is #2 with a disproportionate amount being fed into Donbas vs. Kursk because the stated goals of this whole stupid war is to take the Donbas (and elsewhere).  Nowhere in Russia's SMO rhetoric did I see anything explicitly about liberating actual Russian territory from Ukrainian control

My hope is that Russia goes with a large mobilization and feeds most of it as meat waves into Donbas.  This will, as Mashnovets snarkily stated, allow Ukraine to cook up something else devious.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, danfrodo said:

FFS enough of the WW2 war crime stuff, it's just wasting everyone's time.  Didn't Steve ask for a stop multiple pages ago??   

Or start a new thread where folks can go and discuss WW2 war crimes. 

 

No, I did not say to knock it off yet.  But I did say it the last dozen times the whole warcrime debate came up and went in exactly the same predictable direction as the previous one.  So you can be forgiven for mistaking any one of those for this one.

And in case people can't figure out what I'm saying... PUT A SOCK IN IT regarding warcrimes.  Especially rehashing (for the millionth time) what happened 80 years ago.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

43 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

There is lot of correct observations here. But again, we are all veeeery adaptable animals and there are dozens things that were unthinkable before 2022. They also aren't so much scare as they are calculating. I am not sold that declaration of war in itself is much more than just a piece of paper at this moment; there are some legal issues here but not something groundbreaking after these 2 years. Maybe Putin will announce it one day. Kremlin can always explain it did not expect such steadfast perfidy from the West in support of Nazis. They will figure this out; now they wait for progress in Donbas and results of elections in US.

All true, but we have to keep in mind some of the bigger picture.

First, we have discussed endless times that Russia will collapse sooner rather than later.  It's inevitable.  The form of that collapse, however, is not.  There are many very realistic scenarios.

Second, we have also discussed that no one thing on its own is going to push Russia over the edge.  The regime is too good at keeping the people inline and the people are too good at being kept in line.

Third, the military situation for Russia is dismal and it is getting worse instead of better.  Permanently worse because it's chewed up most of its Soviet stockpiles and is ever increasingly having difficulty finding replacement soldiers, which in turn means each new soldier is more expensive than the last one, and that in turn means more strain on the economy to support whatever new recruits it secures.

None of us know what the "final straw" will be, but most of us here (safe to say) and a lot of the good annalists think that mobilization is that straw.  Perhaps not the day it is announced, but that another mobilization will exhaust most of the regimes remaining options for keeping the war going and/or keeping Russia from collapsing.  Kinda like a self inflicted gunshot wound to the head MIGHT not kill the person straight away, but dying after 10 emergency surgeries or being a living vegetable can be traced back to the gunshot wound.  That's what I think is most likely here.  Mobilization won't collapse Russia overnight, but historians will later be able to point to that as being the singular reason for Russia's ultimate demise.

Steve

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

All true, but we have to keep in mind some of the bigger picture.

First, we have discussed endless times that Russia will collapse sooner rather than later.  It's inevitable.  The form of that collapse, however, is not.  There are many very realistic scenarios.

Second, we have also discussed that no one thing on its own is going to push Russia over the edge.  The regime is too good at keeping the people inline and the people are too good at being kept in line.

Third, the military situation for Russia is dismal and it is getting worse instead of better.  Permanently worse because it's chewed up most of its Soviet stockpiles and is ever increasingly having difficulty finding replacement soldiers, which in turn means each new soldier is more expensive than the last one, and that in turn means more strain on the economy to support whatever new recruits it secures.

None of us know what the "final straw" will be, but most of us here (safe to say) and a lot of the good annalists think that mobilization is that straw.  Perhaps not the day it is announced, but that another mobilization will exhaust most of the regimes remaining options for keeping the war going and/or keeping Russia from collapsing.  Kinda like a self inflicted gunshot wound to the head MIGHT not kill the person straight away, but dying after 10 emergency surgeries or being a living vegetable can be traced back to the gunshot wound.  That's what I think is most likely here.  Mobilization won't collapse Russia overnight, but historians will later be able to point to that as being the singular reason for Russia's ultimate demise.

Steve

The other unknown question, Is Kursk the last rabbit Ukraine had in its hat? Or can they somehow possibly find one more. With good timing, and with all the problems Putins is accumulating and making worse, things might finally crack in an unfixable way.

 

[acrashb]

20 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The other unknown question, Is Kursk the last rabbit Ukraine had in its hat?

"Hold 'em by the nose, kick 'em in the pants"

Right now I'd say Ukraine is holding Putin by the nose (Kursk).  A kick in the pants need not be another front, but it could be a humiliation.

Kerch Strait Bridge?  Putin's palace? Or any action that he has assured the Russian people was impossible.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

The other unknown question, Is Kursk the last rabbit Ukraine had in its hat? Or can they somehow possibly find one more. With good timing, and with all the problems Putins is accumulating and making worse, things might finally crack in an unfixable way.

 

1.  Belarus coming unglued and requiring Russian armed occupation? (ISTR there are already Russian forces present there). I'd call an uprising there a long shot though, even if Lugnuts dropped dead. Belarusians as a society seem about as apathetic and resigned to authoritarian rule as the 'Great Russians', but I also know little about the place.

2. Georgia deciding now's the right time to reverse their 2008 debacle and retake South Ossetia and Abkhazia? (Just how many military-aged males with all limbs intact are left in those Russian dependencies at this point?)  The Caucasus has always been a powder keg for all the adjacent would-be hegemons.

Edited August 19 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

Also according to the pro-Russian tankies, the elite UA 47th brigade has been chopped up into bits at this point, hundreds of Ukrainian conscripts surrendering, film at 11 blah blah blah. No credible links of course.

The usual Russian 'whatever you claim x 2'

[kimbosbread]

I maintain Ukraine wins by destroying Russian energy infrastructure- oil refineries, storage, substations, etc. Obviously rain infrastructure, especially locomotives is good too.

It’s not sexy, it’s not macho, and the military doesn’t want to just dig in and lob drones over the border and wait… but it would work.