How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vanir Ausf B]

“We sent our most combat-ready units to the weakest point on their border,” says a general-staff source deployed to the region. “Conscript soldiers faced paratroopers and simply surrendered.”

“Their commanders aren’t idiots,” says the Ukrainian general-staff source. “They are moving forces, but not as quickly as we would like. They know we can’t extend logistics 80 or 100 km.”

https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/08/11/ukraines-shock-raid-deep-inside-russia-rages-on

[FancyCat]

Quote

Ukrainian T-64BV MBTs rolling into Russia's Kursk Oblast earlier this week.

https://t.me/NMFTE/12402

 

[Blazing 88's]

This channel has good updates. Also if you have some extra scratch, you can support the 22nd Mechanized Brigade (Drone Battalion) for this drive into russia. He has a link and the donation page is shown and mentioned at the end of the video. $300,000 donated so far.

 

Edited August 11 by Blazing 88's

[zinz]

 

Quote

Moscow police departments are reportedly handing out military enlistment flyers to all men who pass through their offices. Perps and victims alike. Also, the city's police armories have reportedly been nearly emptied and sent to Kursk. https://t.me/sotaproject/84990

Via.: https://mastodon.social/@kevinrothrock@infosec.exchange/112945523649778189

[Jiggathebauce]

24 minutes ago, zinz said:

 

Via.: https://mastodon.social/@kevinrothrock@infosec.exchange/112945523649778189

Delicious opportunity if there were any revolutionaries in the city waiting to pounce. 

[Vet 0369]

On 8/8/2024 at 10:26 PM, Battlefront.com said:

There is so much to see in these two videos:

1. They are deliberately targeting the barrels because that's the critical bit.  Tires, carriages, breach blocks, etc. can all be repaired/replaced fairly easily, but barrels are in limited supply.
2. They have both the time and the opportunity to do this.  I presume because the presence of drones has caused the crews to run away.
3. After FPV #1 has detonated they send FPV #2 in to confirm the barrel has a hole melted in it.  That gives an extremely accurate accounting of the effectiveness of their targeting.
4. If FPV #2 doesn't see a hole, then it makes one.  Presumably FPV #3 goes to see if #2 did the trick.
5. If the follow up FPV sees the hole, then it moves on to attack another target.

All of this is important stuff.  None of it was possible before FPVs.  I'm still amazed by all of this

Steve

Drones with (thermite?) just show that the saying “necessity is the Mother of all invention” is true, and that UKR, in a fight for it’s existence are the parents of invention!

[LongLeftFlank]

https://news.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-unleash-robot-dogs-front-131306043.html

 

[acrashb]

Something lighter:
 

 

[Vet 0369]

On 8/9/2024 at 12:17 AM, Fenris said:

NFI if this is real, obviously, but nice example of Ukrainian people's pluck if true.

Edit - one more tweet that made me smile

 

 

As I’ve said a number of times, after the Mai Lai massacre, the “Human Relations” training we were required to attend in the USMC was basically that almost everyone in war zones don’t care who governs them as long as they have the basic needs of all humanity!

[FancyCat]

Quote

Russian channels report that Ukrainian attack drones are currently operating around Moscow, targeting Chkalovsky Airbase, home to a number of Russian special mission aircraft.

https://t.me/etorostov/62033

https://t.me/readovkanews/84706

Location (55.8844031, 38.0512990)

 

[Vet 0369]

On 8/9/2024 at 3:27 AM, chuckdyke said:

Few post back there was a consensus of some sort that maneuver warfare was no longer practicable. This is one hell of a raid. 

A “raid” isn’t defined by the size of the raiding force. It is defined by its intent. A raid can and does change to something else if the “intent” is changed.

[Fenris]

A number of clips and photos posted today of groups of RU POWs.  Most look like young conscripts but there is this one that it claims are Akhmat troops.

 

[chuckdyke]

4 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

A “raid” isn’t defined by the size of the raiding force. It is defined by its intent. A raid can and does change to something else if the “intent” is changed.

We don't know or this is a raid or an intend to occupy Russian territory. 

[Fenris]

GoPro clip from infantryman with a MRAP doing a supply run.  Gets hit twice by I'm guessing are FPVs on the way out.  They obviously know they're being observed. Post says 68th Brigade, I'm not sure where they're operating at the moment.

 

Edited August 11 by Fenris

[Fenris]

Hopefully this is indeed indicative of what's happening

Quote

Reading the few Ukrainian channels talking about the situation with the border crossing, I see no doubt or major concern about the success in achieving the goals of the special operation. All the guys are positive. Some say that everything happening now is just a bonus. According to them, Russian channels lie about their success in defence all the time. 

But of course, we'll see how that goes. I'm simply trying to convey the vibe.

 

[dan/california]

20 minutes ago, Fenris said:

GoPro clip from infantryman with a MRAP doing a supply run.  Gets hit twice by I'm guessing at FPVs on the way out.  They obviously know they're being observed. Post says 68th Brigade, I'm not sure where they're operating at the moment.

 

Brave men!

[Vet 0369]

On 8/9/2024 at 8:00 AM, chuckdyke said:

 

Things like this are not limited to “idiot Russians.” I remember when Netanyahu had to threaten Wolf Blitzer with shutting down his camera crews because they were showing maps with locations of Iraq missile misses during the First Gulf War because it could help Iraq to adjust their aims.

[chuckdyke]

5 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Things like this are not limited to “idiot Russians.” I remember when Netanyahu had to threaten Wolf Blitzer with shutting down his camera crews because they were showing maps with locations of Iraq missile misses during the First Gulf War because it could help Iraq to adjust their aims.

That is why in my opinion the media should be embedded with the army. 

[Vet 0369]

On 8/9/2024 at 2:49 PM, Battlefront.com said:

Some random reports on the fighting from credible sources.  Starting with these from NOEL Reports:
Central thread covering the events as they unfold.

Highlights:

1.  The full extent of Ukrainian activity is unknown, but evidence suggests that the furthest "advances" are likely small groups of recon/sabotage units.  It could be that Ukraine intends to follow up with a proper force, or it could be that these are screening missions and there's no intention of enlargement:

 2.  More reinforcements shown on the way.  I can't make out enough details on the flag, but what I can see (red and white) isn't familiar to me.

 

 

3.  Electrical distribution infrastructure was targeted and apparently successfully so:

Steve

I’m probably wrong, but isn’t the Polish flag red and white?

[Battlefront.com]

As a reminder, we still don't know what the Hell to call this operation.  I'm still of the opinion that it started off as a raid, but now that it's gone spectacularly well (probably exceeding expectations) there's every incentive for Ukraine to stay longer.  It seems like real Russian units, not the rabble we've seen so far, are soon going to be in the battle.  As expected, these units are coming from active combat duties within Ukraine.  Which means, if Ukraine's primary military goal of this operation was to draw Russian forces out of Ukraine (in particular the Donbas), then it's mission successful. 

At some point the amount of Russian forces arrayed against the Ukrainian units will turn this fight into a sort of mini-Bakhmut or mini-Avdiivka, with Russian units trying to use mass to take ground.  It's debatable if that is something Ukraine wants to engage in. 

A question I have is what might happen if Ukraine withdraws back onto home turf.  Are the defenses on the opposite side of the border sufficient to hold the line with relatively few troops, thus freeing up units to go back into the main front, for example the Donbas?  I suspect so, which means Ukraine does have an incentive to pull its forces back before they start getting bled white.

Related, any large scale battle of attrition will not play favorably for Ukraine.  So much of the kudos going to Ukraine now are precisely that this is NOT a battle of attrition.  Returning to that sort of fighting will be extra demoralizing after having such a successful attack that didn't involve burning out several brigades.

Steve

[ArmouredTopHat]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Brave men!

The MRAPs have proved to be even more useful than previously in conflicts. No IEDS as such but they were designed to eat RPG-7 rockets all day and of course the crew can survive mines in them too. Can imagine they have saved a lot of lives. 

[Battlefront.com]

Regarding Putin's option to declare war and why he didn't do it...

If Putin declares war against Ukraine he can then commit the conscripts "as is".  This would mean he wouldn't have to endure/survive another messy mobilization.  It would also be quicker as the meat is already on the counter, so to speak.

However, declaring war and using the conscripts runs into many of the same issues as a mobilization, but with an additional downside of officially acknowledging that the "Special Military Operation" was a failure.  I don't know what ramifications would come from the latter, but I'm sure there would be something negative for the regime.  Though, probably, the use of the conscripts would overshadow it.

On this point Putin is consistent.  He feels he can't do a mobilization, he probably thinks declaring war is even worse, and so he is going out and rounding up whatever scrap can be hand.  And putting the FSB in charge of it ta'boot.  Yesh.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

The MRAPs have proved to be even more useful than previously in conflicts. No IEDS as such but they were designed to eat RPG-7 rockets all day and of course the crew can survive mines in them too. Can imagine they have saved a lot of lives. 

Yup.  And this is Exhibit A as to what really is important on the battlefield going forward.  Which is, having the ability to move infantry and supplies using something that can withstand FPV type attacks.  The same money gets you a lot more MRAPS than it would any other IFV.

Steve

[ArmouredTopHat]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

As a reminder, we still don't know what the Hell to call this operation.  I'm still of the opinion that it started off as a raid, but now that it's gone spectacularly well (probably exceeding expectations) there's every incentive for Ukraine to stay longer.  It seems like real Russian units, not the rabble we've seen so far, are soon going to be in the battle.  As expected, these units are coming from active combat duties within Ukraine.  Which means, if Ukraine's primary military goal of this operation was to draw Russian forces out of Ukraine (in particular the Donbas), then it's mission successful. 

At some point the amount of Russian forces arrayed against the Ukrainian units will turn this fight into a sort of mini-Bakhmut or mini-Avdiivka, with Russian units trying to use mass to take ground.  It's debatable if that is something Ukraine wants to engage in. 

A question I have is what might happen if Ukraine withdraws back onto home turf.  Are the defenses on the opposite side of the border sufficient to hold the line with relatively few troops, thus freeing up units to go back into the main front, for example the Donbas?  I suspect so, which means Ukraine does have an incentive to pull its forces back before they start getting bled white.

Related, any large scale battle of attrition will not play favorably for Ukraine.  So much of the kudos going to Ukraine now are precisely that this is NOT a battle of attrition.  Returning to that sort of fighting will be extra demoralizing after having such a successful attack that didn't involve burning out several brigades.

Steve

I suspect they will happily give ground as its not really that important to hold, but they can force the Russians to expend a lot of effort to do so. Bakhmut and the like relied on the Ukrainians standing and fighting over ground increasingly unfavourable. Here they have a lot more leeway if there is not intention of holding territory long term. 

Edited August 12 by ArmouredTopHat

[MikeyD]

As to Russia doing a general mobilization, don't discount practical issues - Russia's inability to properly clothe, house, feed, or arm a substantial influx of new soldiers. In theory Putin could call up a two million man army but what are they going to eat and what are they going to wear for boots?

Edited August 12 by MikeyD