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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

Wouldn't necessarily have to be eastern Ukraine but I digress.
I'm in the camp that if/given that 'we' (seem to) care about Ukraine, we should/could have done more to challenge Putinnot to take the step. Although it's difficult to define 'we', it should be the 154 countries in the UN condemning the invasion after the fact. 
I'm reminded a bit of the 'polder' model we have in NL. While seeking compromises is good for many situations, one of the consequences is that **** really has to hit the fan before 'everybody' agrees something significant needs to be done about basically anything.
After the 1953 stormflooding causing thousands of deaths, it was clear something needed to be done and we built the 'delta works'. Without such a disaster happening, politicians seem to be reluctant to take drastic measure and rather manage the joint status quo, passing any difficult decisions over to the next installment/generation.

But I agree, the current dimension we live in for sure isn't the only one thinkable a while back. We/I/anyone sure could have been wrong! 

 

The thing that doesn't get enough press is how little faith we had in the Ukrainian Government before the war. It was just assumed that it was completely undermined by Russian operatives. This is now 100% proven not to be the case. The difference this makes is hard to overstate. If we had had this much faith in the Ukrainian Government six weeks ago we would have done a LOT of things differently.

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50 minutes ago, akd said:

Are we tracking Majors?

 

yep so far I only have a couple.  probably too many of them for folks to feel like reporting...

 

Guards Major Burlakov Andrei Petrovich, Deputy Chief of Intelligence Staff - Chief of Intelligence Regiment
Major Sergey Krylov deputy battalion commander from the VDV's 331st Airborne Regiment
Major Alexey Osokin, the commander of the VDV's 31st Air Assault Brigade's 1st battalion

Deputy mayor Alexandr Fiodorov 103 missile brigade (Iskander-M) that Russian Iskander unit met with our SOF...

 

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17 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Very interesting, either they were worried about Ukrainian Armor, or these were the only shells still on hand.

Hard to draw too many conclusions. We have visual evidence of 7 rounds. IIRC the T-72 had, what, 30 stored in tank? With 20 in the autoloader + some floaters. We dont know what the tank started the day out with, nor what the ideal standard load is in this situation. I personally am not surprised to see APFSDS, Ukraine does have tanks and other IFVs and its much better to keep a few extra rounds on hand than to risk turning down the wrong alley, going snoot to snoot with an Oplot, and hoping HEAT will be 'good enough.' Some of the comments on the tweet also seem to suggest that its indicative of an ammo shortage. Again, who knows. From the info I see off this tweet, its as likely the tank shot through its HEAT stores as it is the tank never had them, or was poorly loaded. 

IMO its cool to see the ammo, and the ****ty state of the inside of that tank. But its hard to draw too many conclusions from just one case. All we can say for certain is that some tanks are carrying some APFSDS rounds which, given the UA's potential armor threat, seems wise. 

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37 minutes ago, dan/california said:

They can't count it fast enough. 12 pieces of heavy artillery, just for starters. You have to lose 500 men to lose this much equipment don't you? Either from actual casualties or desertion?

 

Jeez that's some list for just one day. How much longer can this go on for? Simply unsustainable losses! Mainstream media only just recognised that Russia might be losing this war.

Edited by The Steppenwulf
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38 minutes ago, dan/california said:

They can't count it fast enough. 12 pieces of heavy artillery, just for starters. You have to lose 500 men to lose this much equipment don't you? Either from actual casualties or desertion?

 

Too early to say, but if they are saying "Added today. Nearly all of these losses are from yesterday and today though. But today's losses were so high that the backlog appears to have grown in size."

that could be a sign of units cracking and just abandoning stuff.  it is definitely not good news... for Russia anyway.

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On 3/19/2022 at 8:06 AM, Haiduk said:

UKR BTR-4E1, probably hit by the tank gun. Looks like first days losses. Ukrainian weapons tracker account claims this is "presumably near Mariupol" but the snow clearly points on Kharkiv area,

Зображення

Haiduk,

Concur as to probable cause of destruction. Note enormous cracking of armor around the large hole. This is brittle failure. Have seen exactly the same thing on a WW I FT-17 hit in the flank during that war by a German 15 cm howitzer.  Took the right side upper hull armor clean off the tank's practically after half. You csn see the same thing in the pics from the Russian firing trials against captured Panthers and Tigers.

Regards,

John Kettler

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