How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

What kind of missile hit the Kyiv shopping centre last night? It seems an extraordinarily big explosion based on the damage.

I think this was Iskander ballistic missile, launched from Belarus. Since one minute of alarm I heard loud explosion, though this place in 12 km from my house. Pro-russian informators already two weeks reported via Telegram that Ukr artillery and AD systems are parking there and move around (the territory of this mall is very wide). 

There were already several reports about missile interceptions in this district - Russians likely tried to wipe out this place, and finaly they could strike it. Reportedly 8 KIA, knowingly one of them is civilain from Leroi Merlin corporation.

On this video you can see a missile on 0:27 vertically falling down

Regaring heavy damage - the mall was built of light constructions, except this tall bulding. 

 

Edited March 21, 2022 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

 

 

[TheVulture]

Specially made medals for each city? Sounds like Russian war preparations and logistics were concentrating on the important stuff then.

[kraze]

5 hours ago, TheVulture said:

My knowledge of  Ukraine / Belarus is very poor, but is that that the famous Pripyat marches (Pripet?). I was under the impression from Bagration etc. in WW2 that those those marshes covered a fair bit of the border between the two countries. Is that about right?

You are correct

[Bulletpoint]

On 3/17/2022 at 4:28 PM, Haiduk said:

Great news! The bomb shelter under Drama Theater in Mariupol survived the hit of 500 kg bomb. Now the rubbles removing have started to reach the entrance of shelter. There is still unknow about possible casualties among people which were inside the buiding and out of shelter. 

Is there any news about the people trapped under the theatre? I understand the rescue work has been delayed by shelling and fighting, but how long will the trapped people be able to survive? Do they have big stores of food and water? I'm starting to worry this might turn into another tragedy of this criminal war.

[Haiduk]

UKR soldiers destroyed Russian command center and seized situation maps for 10th of March in Kherson - Mykolaiv direction. Probably this happened around this data and was allowed to issue just now.

 

From the map Russian OOB here is next:

- 49 CAA (Southern Miliatary district, Stavropol)

---- 2 x BTG of 205th motor-rifle brigade

--- 2 x BTG of 34th motor-rifle brigade (mouyntain)

--- 2 x BTG of 108th air-assault regiment

--- 10th Spetsnaz brigade

--- 1st missile brigade

--- 90th SAM brigade

--- 227th artillery brigade

--- 66th control brigade

--- 32nd engineer-sapper regiment

--- 17th NBC-protection regiment

--- 512th separeate EW battalion

 

- 22nd Army Corps (Crimea)

--- 126th Coastal defense brigade (with 8th artillery regiment, 1096th SAM regiment)

--- 20th motor-rifle division (33th, 255th motor-rifle regiments, 944 SP-artillery regiment, 358th SAM regiment )

--- 127th separate recon brigade (recon batatlion + ELINT/EW battalion)

--- 11th air-assault brigade

--- 25th Spetsnaz regiment

--- 291st artillery brigade

--- 439th reactive artilelry brigade

--- 20th SAM regiment

--- 11th engineer brigade

--- 4th NBC-protection regiment

 

VDV forces of 7th air-assault division (mountain)

--- 2 x BTG of 56th air-assaulr regiment

--- 2 x BTG of 247th air-assault regiment

--- 1141st artilelry regiment

 

 

Edited March 21, 2022 by Haiduk

[keas66]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

UKR soldiers destryed Russian comand point and seized situation maps for 10th of March in Kherson - Mykolaiv direction:

 

From the map Russian OOB here is next:

- 49 CCA (Southern Miliatary district, Stavropol)

---- 2 x BTG of 205th motor-rifle brigade

--- 2 x BTG of 34th motor-rifle brigade (mouyntain)

--- 2 x BTG of 108th air-assault regiment

--- 10th Spetsnaz brigade

--- 1st missile brigade

--- 90th SAM brigade

--- 227th artillery brigade

--- 66th control brigade

--- 32nd engineer-sapper regiment

--- 17th NBC-protection regiment

--- 512th separeate EW battalion

 

- 22nd Army Corps (Crimea)

--- 126th Coastal defense brigade (with 8th artillery regiment, 1096th SAM regiment)

--- 20th motor-rifle division (33th, 255th motor-rifle regiments, 944 SP-artillery regiment, 358th SAM regiment )

--- 127th separate recon brigade (recon batatlion + ELINT/EW battalion)

--- 11th air-assault brigade

--- 25th Spetsnaz regiment

--- 291st artillery brigade

--- 439th reactive artilelry brigade

--- 20th SAM regiment

--- 11th engineer brigade

--- 4th NBC-protection regiment

 

VDV forces of 7th air-assault division (mountain)

--- 2 x BTG of 56th air-assaulr regiment

--- 2 x BTG of 247th air-assault regiment

--- 1141st artilelry regiment

 

 

Is it wise to be sharing this intel ? ( I mean the UA not yourself ) EDIT - Ah its week old data - apologies

Edited March 21, 2022 by keas66

[Baneman]

1 minute ago, keas66 said:

Is it wise to be sharing this intel ?

The action is so fast moving that any info from more than a couple of days back is likely to be completely useless.
So if this was taken on the 10th, by now there's surely no issue with releasing it.

[TheVulture]

2 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Is it wise to be sharing this intel ? ( I mean the UA not yourself )

It's from 11 days ago, so it's probably relatively safe. Although it might let the Russians know where some of their units are that they lost contact with

 

[Blazing 88's]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

From the map Russian OOB here is next:....

--- 17th NBC-protection regiment

--- 4th NBC-protection regiment...

That's scary...

Edited March 21, 2022 by Blazing 88's

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Blazing 88's said:

That's scary...

TOS-1A, smoke generators - this stuff is their too. 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

 For starters, his already strained military is going to have to spool up for a conflict with the EU and US (who won't immediately go to war over it but will certainly rush every available force to eastern Europe). There will then be an absolutely ferocious reaction globally to it that will include an immediate and full trade/contact embargo with Russia. China, India, Israel and others will perforce separate completely or more clearly from Moscow. And that's just the immediate reaction.

In a sense, Putin is already conducting this sort of campaign in Mariupol. The Ukraine and the world aren't blanching at it but rather increasing aid to the Ukrainian side. Every escalation just makes the moral and political stakes that much more obvious. 

This. 
Plus if he goes that way, he won't have any credible threats left. 

 

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

No, it seems there was another building there, the one with "SPORT LIFE" on the facade in the pic AKD linked to. The strike erased it completely.

Indeed. Although if it's 'just' a sportshall without concreterebar floors / walls, I guess a large warhead (thermobaric or HE) would blow apart the construction holding it together which declares the lack of rubble.

If it would have been a stone/concrete building, we would have seen heaps of rubble left I'd say.

[keas66]

4 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

This. 
Plus if he goes that way, he won't have any credible threats left. 

 

 

At this point in time I really don't know what to think about Putin and his Delusions / Ability to carry out actions we all deem nonsensical . He seems like a real Colonel Kurtz type to me right now .

[akd]

There are still some remains of the structure:

[Haiduk]

Russian pontons or some other engineer stuff, destroyed near Khrystophorivka village (27 km NE from Mykolaiv) on Ingul river. UKR forces demolished the bridge, so Russians tried to build a crossing to move further, but our artillery destroyed it. Looks like our troops took back this area.

 

Edited March 21, 2022 by Haiduk

[BeondTheGrave]

1 hour ago, keas66 said:

I still am not seeing any discussions around what happens if  Putin decides to play Madman and drops a tactical nuke on a Ukrainian City and demands a total surrender .  How is that dealt with  except by someone on the Russian Side interceding and taking Putin out ? The West / NATO will not respond  I am quite sure  and Putin will have the world by its balls .

Impossible to know. Its such an extreme scenario, such an exceptional circumstance, such a dramatic breach of post-WWII norms that its impossible to predict what would happen next. IMO its foolish to assume the west would not respond, they would. Poland will not let is border regions turn in to an irradiated wasteland. Deterrence is the art of creating fear in the mind of your opponent that escalation will cost more than resolution. But there is a point beyond which deterrence no longer works, but rather serves as incentive for war. The west isn't as scared and weak as you seem to think it is, it will not tolerate nuclear war on its borders, not tolerate fallout crossing over into NATO territory. The fallout alone might well constitute a violation of Article 5 itself, the use of a radiological weapon against civilian targets (border communities). 

[akd]

Claim of some successful counter-attacks W and NW of Kyiv:

 

[Haiduk]

UKR 2S7 Pion in action

 

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, akd said:

Claim of some successful counter-attacks W and NW of Kyiv:

 

About Makariv there is unclear situation. Our State Emergency Service of Kyiv oblast doesn't include it in the list of occupied settlements. And reportedly the town was inder our control at least 2-3 days ago. Today local inhabitant in twitter dosn't confirm that Makariv is liberated, but there is unknown either the town is partially controleld by one of forces of full.  

Our artillery almost all day was heard on Brovary direction from NE side. 

Edited March 21, 2022 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

30 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Our artillery almost all day was heard on Brovary direction from NE side. 

What about RUS counter fires?

[Suchy]

To listen to between military deliberations

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3ojKQSk63M

[Kinophile]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/21/politics/us-russia-top-military-commander-ukraine-war/index.html

Is this accurate? There really isn't a solo supreme Special Operation commander? 

Because Putin was wary of a single military figure gaining popularity/credit for the Glorious Conquest Of Ukraine?

Lack a single uber-commander would explain sooooo much.

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

What about RUS counter fires?

It was too far, I'm heard only our artillery shots (but maybe they shoot in western direction). From Brovary side there was only muffled sounds of artilelry of even MLRS fire. It lasted from 9-00 of morning to 15-00 with several pauses.