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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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1 minute ago, Splinty said:

I'm imagining a drone that drops a litre of vodka, followed by a grenade when Russian troops scramble out to get it.

Well there is a One - Two Punch. I will put it on the drink menu. Proceeds go to buying more UVAs for the UA. 

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3 hours ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

Just wondering why the right column take a zig-zag route, and turning in front of enemy line. 

Any possible explanation on this?

The one in on the "left" in the documentation images of the Leo and Brad destruction?  Clearly this was a second attempt at a lane and the second driver drove around the destroyed vehicles from the first attempt.  It is far better to take a second pass over the same lane and deviate only when necessary.  The reason is that mine plowing is inexact, so it is better to make multiple passes over the same lane than separate lanes with only one pass.

Steve

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34 minutes ago, Splinty said:

I'm imagining a drone that drops a litre of vodka, followed by a grenade when Russian troops scramble out to get it.

So how would you work those dildos into the mix?  You know, the ones Ukraine has been dropping for the last few months.  Dropping them after the vodka might not get them out of their trenches right away, though they might scramble a bit more awkwardly after.

Steve

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3 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Allegedly new package prepared for its way to UA 👍

 

 

indeed a great thing about Strykers and Bradleys is there's plenty more where these came from! 

Also, the crew survivability makes sure new personal don't need to be trained and experience can accumulate. 

Edited by The_MonkeyKing
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Yeah it is still early but I think I am distinctly hearing creaking noises from that shoddily built Russian house. 
freakin months of Russian gains measured in inches per body and in a week we are starting a list of liberated settlements.  My bet is Russian high command is studiously avoiding being near windows. 

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7 minutes ago, sburke said:

Yeah it is still early but I think I am distinctly hearing creaking noises from that shoddily built Russian house. 
freakin months of Russian gains measured in inches per body and in a week we are starting a list of liberated settlements.  My bet is Russian high command is studiously avoiding being near windows. 

Oddly you are never quite far enough away from the window when that very strange falling virus manifests itself.

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21 minutes ago, sburke said:

Yeah it is still early but I think I am distinctly hearing creaking noises from that shoddily built Russian house. 
freakin months of Russian gains measured in inches per body and in a week we are starting a list of liberated settlements.  My bet is Russian high command is studiously avoiding being near windows. 

I've been trying to keep reminding myself this is going to be a very, very hard slog for UKR.  Trying not to get into wishful thinking and confirmation bias.  But what if RU is a brittle as TheCapt thinks?  What if Putin thinks he's got all these huge defensive that are actually just ditches?  What if the corrosion has weakened RU more than Putin knows?   Would the generals be lying to Putin to keep their nice jobs?  Would Shoigu be lying?  This is the story of the war so far, where decisions are made thinking RU actually has a competent army when the opposite is now known to be true. 

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https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-accuses-russia-of-blowing-up-another-dam

While we cannot say for sure at this point who was responsible for the destruction of the Kakhovka dam and the dam along the Mokri Yaly River, the ongoing counteroffensive is only likely to see the chances of such desperate actions increase. For Ukraine, this is a chance to take back more territory from Russia while making use of some of its more modern Western-supplied heavy arms. For Russia, meanwhile, even modest Ukrainian gains will strike a severe psychological blow and its military will use everything within its power to hold its lines.

Reading between the lines, Thomas Newdick is mirroring the confidence that many have. 

 

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OK, folks, time to put your money on the table.  I don't gamble for money but we can pretend.

1.  Is UKR southern offensive a shaping operation intended to divert RU resources from a bigger attack toward Svatove-Starobilsk? 

Given that it's only June 12, UKR would have still have plenty of time to take the landbridge if northern attack goes well.  If northern attack goes poorly, then still can stop there and put resources to the south.  RU is tied down in Bakhmut & southern front, so this could be interesting. 

And I hope that somewhere along the Dnieper UKR can still manage to put across some raiding parties.  Especially now since RU probably has nearly nothing there.

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10 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

OK, folks, time to put your money on the table.  I don't gamble for money but we can pretend.

1.  Is UKR southern offensive a shaping operation intended to divert RU resources from a bigger attack toward Svatove-Starobilsk? 

Given that it's only June 12, UKR would have still have plenty of time to take the landbridge if northern attack goes well.  If northern attack goes poorly, then still can stop there and put resources to the south.  RU is tied down in Bakhmut & southern front, so this could be interesting. 

And I hope that somewhere along the Dnieper UKR can still manage to put across some raiding parties.  Especially now since RU probably has nearly nothing there.

I am also not a gambler but my wet dream is that Ukraine would punch through around Bakhmut, when it will be weak enough and go straight for Debaltseve.

Psychological blow alone from that move would be tremendous but this single town is a focal point of supply routes for the entire eastern front. Taking any land on the territory of Donetsk/Luhansk pseudo-republic is also a major status quo changer. After that Crimea would be looking like a small deal compared to that.

Winning in the east is much more valuable than south because it means that Crimea and all other territories comes free of charge. Single blow to cut a head of this ugly beast, worth dedicated history books.

Yeah, what a nice dream...

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On 6/11/2023 at 8:25 AM, The_MonkeyKing said:

Ukraine already has the Storm Shadow

As far as I know ATACMS is only slightly more capable than Storm Shadow (300km range vs 250km range). Storm Shadow is definitely good enough from a capability standpoint. But the key difference between ATACMS and Storm Shadow is that the US has thousands of ATACMS missiles, while the UK only had ~800 Storm Shadow missiles. ATACMS would, I think, eliminate any questions around the sustainability of Ukrainian long range strikes, and perhaps even allow them to increase the intensity of those strikes.

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41 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

As far as I know ATACMS is only slightly more capable than Storm Shadow (300km range vs 250km range). Storm Shadow is definitely good enough from a capability standpoint. But the key difference between ATACMS and Storm Shadow is that the US has thousands of ATACMS missiles, while the UK only had ~800 Storm Shadow missiles. ATACMS would, I think, eliminate any questions around the sustainability of Ukrainian long range strikes, and perhaps even allow them to increase the intensity of those strikes.

ATACMS is a ballistic missile. Which means it ain't getting shot down by russians. Granted they have trouble with shooting down Storm Shadows as well, seeing as how various colonels, and now a general, spontaneously combust in a myriad of HQs

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