How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

25 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

 

beyond brilliant.  Some people are so funny and talented

and then of course there's the Putins & Putinites of the world.  Not funny.  Much less talented.

[Beleg85]

Btw. if there would only be a game that could simulate this conflict one day...well this seems like one of better pics for campaign victory. With assorted expalantion it is not about US, ofc.

There are reports another strong Russian attack failed near Avdiivka with numerous casualties for attackers.

Unfortunatelly, situation near northern Bakhmut seems to deteriorate. Fighting is close to village of Jahidne, NW of the town. It seems muscovites are going for "short" pincers, not wider ones like some analysts predicted. They are in a hurry:

Edited February 20, 2023 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Unfortunatelly, situation near northern Bakhmut seems to deteriorate. Fighting is close to village of Jahidne, NW of the town. It seems muscovites are going for "short" pincers, not wider ones like some analysts predicted. They are in a hurry:

I am still hopeful that a rushed, thinly held strip of land won't stay in Russian hands for long.  Especially given Russia's apparent decrease in availability of artillery.  Ukraine should, in theory, be able to put pressure somewhere along the line and choke off the rest.

Steve

[Ultradave]

2 hours ago, keas66 said:

https://variety.com/2022/tv/news/top-rated-shows-2022-yellowstone-ncis-oscars-fbi-super-bowl-1235475629/

Seems like most of America is too busy watching NFL games

NVM. Not worth it.

Dave

Edited February 20, 2023 by Ultradave

[Lethaface]

it is reassuring to observe we Europeans aren't alone with regards to political bashing among ourselves 

[Beleg85]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am still hopeful that a rushed, thinly held strip of land won't stay in Russian hands for long.  Especially given Russia's apparent decrease in availability of artillery.  Ukraine should, in theory, be able to put pressure somewhere along the line and choke off the rest.

Steve

There are loud rumours of Ukrainian counterattack, but this time Russians may be properly covering the flanks. They want to cut the road to the town, clearly. I saw one analysis that this time attack is led by regulars, not Wagner, so perhaps they have different artillery ammo allotment than mercenaries- last videos begging for ammo were clearly as much political as tactical issue, as MoD did not wanted to support costly but popular Wagnerite tactics, but they may be more favorable when their own attacks. We will see.

Edited February 20, 2023 by Beleg85

[chuckdyke]

Some background from the Second World War which Putin Imo uses today as his excuse.

 

[MikeyD]

Lets also remember Stalin himself was allied with the Nazis as they carved up Poland.

[chrisl]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am thinking of getting a T-shirt that reads "I will work for Poutine".

Steve

Be careful what you wish for.  
 

I’m sitting about 1500 feet from a poutine stand on the west coast. It probably doesn’t travel well…

[Beleg85]

Regarding angst of Putin's actions, there are 3 very close dates here:

-Tomorrow's speech

-23rd february- Day of Defender of Fatherland (this is what 90% of all those billboards people freak out are about)

-24th- 1st anniversary of 3-Day Special Military Operation.

I frankly expect nothing special, we've had similar expectatons "for something Big" in the past. Perhaps there will be additional missile strike, but even formal declaration of war- sounds strange- does not alter Russian strategic posture in some terribly meaningful way at present moment. And is admitting to defeat of sorts, on Putin's side.

[dan/california]

17 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

it is reassuring to observe we Europeans aren't alone with regards to political bashing among ourselves 

Oh no, we are professionals at it.  One of the worst things Putin has done from his point of view is make us look up, and at him.

[FancyCat]

Quote

The authorship of the strategy document, according to one Western official with direct knowledge of its construction, belongs to the Presidential Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation, a subdivision of Putin’s Presidential Administration, which was established five years ago. The rather innocuously named directorate’s actual task is to exert control over neighboring countries that Russia sees as in its sphere of influence: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova.

 

[chuckdyke]

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by chuckdyke

[The_Capt]

30 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Oh no, we are professionals at it.  One of the worst things Putin has done from his point of view is make us look up, and at him.

Actually I think another major aspect of Putin’s strategic failure has been the effect this conflict has had on creating US political unity.  There is always going to be a far-something that is going to oppose, more often simply because they do not want the other team to have a win.  However the US political mechanisms are working as they should and we are seeing a lot more unity than we have in years.

The main reason for this is that beyond the laughably poorly informed opinions of some frankly pretty crappy social media feeds, Putin and Russia are way above thresholds of attribution and response - there is no real question or ambiguity here.  Now if this war had been a quick war it may have dislocated response but it has dragged on and only someone with their head’s completely up certain offices can deny the egregious war crimes, violations of international laws and just plain lack of human decency being demonstrated on the battlefield.  Atheists and god fearing folk both agree that Jesus would find this pretty f#cked up.

This was a major mistake for Putin, maybe the mistake.  He also unified NATO and the EU (to a greater extent), all in direct opposition to his obvious political goals.  This war has become a historic demonstration of a self-defeating strategy if there ever was one.

Edited February 21, 2023 by The_Capt

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Actually I think another major aspect of Putin’s strategic failure has been the effect this conflict has had on creating US political unity.  There is always going to be a far-something that is going to oppose, more often simply because they do not want the other team to have a win.  However the US political mechanisms are working as they should and we are seeing a lot more unity than we have in years.

The main reason for this is that beyond the laughably poorly informed opinions of some frankly pretty crappy social media feeds, Putin and Russia are way above thresholds of attribution and response - there is no real question or ambiguity here.  Now if this war had been a quick war it may have dislocated response but it has dragged on and only someone with their head’s completely up certain offices can deny the egregious war crimes, violations of international laws and just plain lack of human decency being demonstrated on the battlefield.  Atheists and god fearing folk both agree that Jesus would find this pretty f#cked up.

This was a major mistake for Putin, maybe the mistake.  He also unified NATO and the EU (to a greater extent), all in direct opposition to his obvious political goals.  This war has become a historic demonstration of a self-defeating strategy if there ever was one.

Just saw polling today that only about 10% of Republicans, Democrats and Independents approve of Vladimir Putin. That's across the board. Amazing.

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

Just saw polling today that only about 10% of Republicans, Democrats and Independents approve of Vladimir Putin. That's across the board. Amazing.

And those 10% should be flown to a killing field in Bucha, might push the percentage a little bit.

Regardless, Russia is screwed.

[benpark]

Another facet of the mindset at work here:

https://www.lambertcoleman.com/portfolio/the-improbable-cathedral-of-the-russian-armed-forces/

I'll be watching the goings on tomorrow on the Russian Media Monitor YouTubes. They had the entire early war rally in Russia. I'll revisit that, as well.

Any other "psychology tracker" sites people may want to recommend?

Edited February 21, 2023 by benpark

[sburke]

This was a comment in that twitter link by Chuck

 

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by sburke

[danfrodo]

34 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Actually I think another major aspect of Putin’s strategic failure has been the effect this conflict has had on creating US political unity.  There is always going to be a far-something that is going to oppose, more often simply because they do not want the other team to have a win.  However the US political mechanisms are working as they should and we are seeing a lot more unity than we have in years.

The main reason for this is that beyond the laughably poorly informed opinions of some frankly pretty crappy social media feeds, Putin and Russia are way above thresholds of attribution and response - there is no real question or ambiguity here.  Now if this war had been a quick war it may have dislocated response but it has dragged on and only someone with their head’s completely up certain offices can deny the egregious war crimes, violations of international laws and just plain lack of human decency being demonstrated on the battlefield.  Atheists and god fearing folk both agree that Jesus would find this pretty f#cked up.

This was a major mistake for Putin, maybe the mistake.  He also unified NATO and the EU (to a greater extent), all in direct opposition to his obvious political goals.  This war has become a historic demonstration of a self-defeating strategy if there ever was one.

I remember posting similar points nearly a year ago.  Look at all the things Putin would not want and how many of them his failed coup-war has accomplished.  Actually, if we just judge him on his accomplishments it's really impressive.  The only problem is that these results were for the other side, but still he should get several gold stars for effort. 

He's:

unified NATO

pushed Finland and Sweden into NATO

made every country on his border get very serious about defense

accelerated the move away from fossil fuels by a decade

Reduced the military threat of RU for a generation

Accelerated the 'stans' countries in becoming more independent

Sent a lot of really talented technical professionals to the west -- thx! 

Introduced millions of noobs into the concept of what is and what is not a tank, which should actually be taught in schools but sadly is not

On political unity, anyone that can make me actually complement Mitch McConnell is a real miracle worker.  (note I have put those complements in writing here on the forum multiple times)

So let's all take a moment to praise the genius of Putin, who has done things that most people thought were simply impossible.

[Ithikial_AU]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's the kicker.  For a government to "fix" a problem it needs to "own" the problem.  In real terms that means statutory authority, which is just another name for regulation.  This means more laws, more interference in markets, more exposure to political interference, and nearly always resulting additional costs on taxpayers.  Most of the problems the US has domestically are inherently fixable, but the large segment of US society that is against the government doing anything to fix the problems thwarts that.  The result is problems don't get addressed.

I don't understand people arguing for 'small Government'. Even the most fiscal conservative of Governments oversee budgets and regulatory frameworks that are the single biggest influence on any economy, despite what tripe they sell to their voting base. People seem to forget all the things Government's have to do behind the scenes just so they each individual can go about and live a normal life. Health, safety, education, sanitation, everything has a function for Government role - even if delivered privately.

Or you can sum it up better with a Monty Python quote  :

Reg: All right, but apart from the sanitation, the medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, the fresh-water system, and public health, what have the Romans ever done for us?

PFJ Member: Brought peace?

Reg: Oh, peace? SHUT UP!

Back on topic. An interesting opinion piece on the recent history in the Middle East influencing foreign policy and defence decisions today around Russia.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/20/iraq-war-confront-anniversary-russia-putin

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

This was a comment in that twitter link by Chuck

 

 

Ouch!

I have to say that when I first heard of the visit (I was driving at the time) I thought it was important, meaningful, and "well played".  But I was paying more attention to traffic than the radio, as it should be.  It wasn't until I got home and started reading some commentary about how it happened that it really sunk in as to how significant this move was.  It wasn't just the overt sign of support and the symbolism of the moment, it wasn't the fact that the Biden Admin felt it was safe enough to go to Kyiv, it was that the Russians would freak out about it.  Deeply and profoundly.

Steve

[billbindc]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ouch!

I have to say that when I first heard of the visit (I was driving at the time) I thought it was important, meaningful, and "well played".  But I was paying more attention to traffic than the radio, as it should be.  It wasn't until I got home and started reading some commentary about how it happened that it really sunk in as to how significant this move was.  It wasn't just the overt sign of support and the symbolism of the moment, it wasn't the fact that the Biden Admin felt it was safe enough to go to Kyiv, it was that the Russians would freak out about it.  Deeply and profoundly.

Steve

As a Russian commentator said (before they realized it was happening) Biden going to Kyiv is saying that Biden expects Kyiv to win. That is exactly how it's being read in Russia. That it was timed to big foot Putin's speech tomorrow, that it was done with Israeli cover, that the optics were superb are all bad enough. Biden walking nonchalantly through an air raid alert with a subdued Secret Service detail is an absolute kick in the nuts to Moscow's propaganda.

Also: https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/02/one-year-after-russias-invasion-of-ukraine.html

 

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, billbindc said:

As a Russian commentator said (before they realized it was happening) Biden going to Kyiv is saying that Biden expects Kyiv to win. That is exactly how it's being read in Russia. That it was timed to big foot Putin's speech tomorrow, that it was done with Israeli cover, that the optics were superb are all bad enough. Biden walking nonchalantly through an air raid alert with a subdued Secret Service detail is an absolute kick in the nuts to Moscow's propaganda.

Also: https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/02/one-year-after-russias-invasion-of-ukraine.html

 

I read the first half of the blog.  Some good quotes in there, a few hint at RAND's blindspots going into the war and in the months that followed its start.  However, I did like this one:

Quote

What stood out in Year One

“Putin's decision for war challenges many of the assumptions behind current U.S. defense policy. We engaged in eight years of intense security cooperation and broadcast multilateral deterrent messages—and none of it altered his perceptions.”

What to watch in Year Two

“First, the collision of planned offensives in the spring, and whether one side begins to gain advantage. Second, the state of the Russian economy. And third, can the United States and its allies come up with any detailed concept for an endgame?”

Michael Mazarr

His first point is an excellent one that I think too many people take for granted.  Putin ignoring logic and warnings is something I've just accepted.  I've also taken for granted the need to respond so as to not set a precedent.

What this guy is saying is that we should reevaluate the entire way the West thinks about deterrence.  I'm not sure exactly what that might be, but I do think the West need to be better prepared for another Putin type situation in the future.  Oh, say in the Pacific somewhere?  Just as a for example

I think the West was on the right track towards the end of the prewar attempts to get Putin to call it off.  It seems Putin was told certain things would happen and either he didn't care or didn't believe they would happen.  Having a coalition of powerful nations sign off on a specific plan that could be shoved in the face of an intransigent government may have more deterrence now than it did for Putin.  Especially because whatever assumptions Putin made about an ineffective response didn't turn out so well for him.

Steve

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

ntroduced millions of noobs into the concept of what is and what is not a tank, which should actually be taught in schools but sadly is not

OMG that is funny!

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

hat stood out in Year One

“By leveraging citizen and soldier influencers on social media, Ukraine has expanded the reach and influence of its messaging, personalized it more than any propaganda campaign, and heralded a change in the future of information warfare.”

 

Apologies for repeating myself, but Google translate is what makes this possible. It has had an enormous effect on this war.