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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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34 minutes ago, Fenris said:

This is motion sickness inducing to watch but it does show a number of afv's being taken out.  Google reckons the caption says "Jewelry work of our artillery on enemy tanks in the area of n.p. Bearded woman. Glory to the Nation!"  Whatever that means.

 

 

Had a go at it. Found an online site that stabilized videos.  Maybe a bit better:

 

 

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Just now, Bulletpoint said:

Is it just me, or have the amount of videos showing big Ukrainian victories slowed down recently?

Also, it seems the Russians are advancing in some places now, north of Mariupol and Kharkiv-Luhansk. Looks like it could lead to some forces getting encircled.

 

_123622801_ukraine_invasion_east_map_x26

Because russian attacks slowed down. No more huge pushes towards anywhere.

They are now in a full warcrime mode where they just bomb and shell civilians from afar where it's very hard to get them.

Obviously they are either trying to regroup for that magical kamikaze push on Kyiv or whatever - or it really is that bad for russians at this point.

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10 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Is it just me, or have the amount of videos showing big Ukrainian victories slowed down recently?

Also, it seems the Russians are advancing in some places now, north of Mariupol and Kharkiv-Luhansk. Looks like it could lead to some forces getting encircled.

 

_123622801_ukraine_invasion_east_map_x26

According to this post the advance has stalled on most fronts, the Russians attempted a push on Irpin which was stopped without making much progress. 

 

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42 minutes ago, Pete Wenman said:

This one looks like normal artillery fire - stated to be Location 50.58601019062369, 30.838783548950353 - NE of Brovary

 

The sound on backgroud is a Russian commanders talk about this shelled unit  (intercepted by SIGINT):

-  Nitro, I'm Udar (eng. "Strike")

- Allo

- Nitro, I'm Udar, I listen you

- Udar, I'm Nitro. I almost lost 6th regiment

- What?

- 6th regiment! I can't report for now! I'm rallying them. Too much of losses... We awaited... The head of column was ambushed. The commander of regiment get lost. For the rest - I'm still figuring it out...

- Now, when will rally of all, when understand situation, you have to report me. 

- There was artillery hit! Tanks! UAV! As I see Bayraktar is flying! I'm figuring out with a losses

PS. Location is almost the same place that Shiled of Kyiv campaign, but some SW %)

Edited by Haiduk
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I don't know if you know the Lindybeige youtube channel. He's a British amateur historian making long, rambling videos about historical warfare, but apparently he also has a friend who now volunteered to go to Ukraine and fight. In this video, Lindybeige turns serious for a moment and makes a quite good little interview with his friend about his thoughts and motivations for volunteering.

One interesting thing being said is that his friend estimated that from the Bristol area alone, around a thousand Brits have decided to join the Ukrainian "foreign legion".

 

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As I already predicted a few hours back. Most likely the use of chemical weapons against civilians might be the Rubicon for NATO. We´ll see.

Quote

Pressed on if it would be a 'red line', he added: "I don't think it's helpful to get into any firm commitment right now about where that red line sits. But I think President Putin needs to be very clear about when other countries have used chemical weapons, it has caused an international response.

Politics latest news: Nato could intervene if Putin crosses 'red line' on chemical weapons, suggests minister (telegraph.co.uk)

Edited by DesertFox
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8 minutes ago, Grey_Fox said:

This seriously has to be a figment of somebody's imagination. How in the hell can they confidently identify formations like this?

 

Check 19/. He posted his sources for the map. I didn't check the accuracy but his one is quite popular.

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1 minute ago, melm said:

Check 19/. He posted his sources for the map. I didn't check the accuracy but his one is quite popular.

Yeah of course it's popular, it gives the air of authority despite being bull****.

And no, they don't actually provide sources, they just make claims about where they got the information.

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14 minutes ago, melm said:

 

Check 19/. He posted his sources for the map. I didn't check the accuracy but his one is quite popular.

According to that map it looks as if russians occupy every single village and town they have passed on the road. Which is not true, especially in the northern half of Ukraine - they have no effective holding force in any number, not even a good protected rear - hence why their supply convoys keep burning daily.

And in the south they were stalled by several dozens of parked choppers suddenly catching fire - to a point where their whole VDV had to f off back to Crimea because they have nothing to drop them into Odessa with atm.

Mariupol itself is surrounded and is getting the beating bordering on genocidal, yet hardcore vets of Azov still manage to go out and mess up russians bad, taking whole trophy tanks.

 

This map is true if it is WW2 era thinking, but this isn't WW2.

The only frontline that can be drawn semi-reliably is in the south, the other area is a mess of surrounding forces getting surrounded themselves.

Edited by kraze
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5 hours ago, db_zero said:

stealth technology is not 100% foolproof. A F-117 was shot down over Bosnia in the 90s 

Stealth technology doesn’t make you invisible. Reduces signature, range you’re detected and reaction time.

There is still a risk that a stealth aircraft gets shot down.

db_zero,

The loss of that F-117A was the product of the same sort of high level Air Force stupidity that cost us a lot of unnecessary B-52 losses in LINEBACKER II late in the Vietnam War--the many times repeated use of the same approach/egress axes and flight profiles, coupled with innovative enemy anti-Stealth tech and technological hubris on our end in the case of the F-117A shootdown. The below provides vastly more information on what really happened than from everything I've seen to date.

https://theaviationgeekclub.com/an-in-depth-analysis-of-how-serbs-were-able-to-shoot-down-an-f-117-stealth-fighter-during-operation-allied-force/

Regards,

John Kettler

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35 minutes ago, Grey_Fox said:

How in the hell can they confidently identify formations like this?

I see at least one mistake - there is UKR 59th motor-rifle is now opearting near Mykolaiv, not 57th. So, this identifications not always right

Edited by Haiduk
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34 minutes ago, Grey_Fox said:

This seriously has to be a figment of somebody's imagination. How in the hell can they confidently identify formations like this?

From someone who does this for a living it is quite easy if you know what you're doing.  It is an intelligence product and therefore there will be degrees of uncertainty involved.  This is clearly stated.  In terms of the big handfuls from what I'm seeing on the Russian side the bigger moving parts look more or less in the right place.

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Somewhere on "northern direction" - next column hit on the road. T-72 with "O" marking is captured. Looks like in even hasn't ERA - T-72A? 

Unknown location, Russian "small raid group" tried to probe the way through the forest road, but was engaged - at least 3 BMPs minus
Edited by Haiduk
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13 hours ago, sburke said:

oh I'm sorry.  let me read your post again....hmm nope I don't see a SINGLE source much less a reputable source.  Swing and a miss!

Are you spending time on infowars or some other Qanon site?  Don't.  It is bad for your mental health.

A debunked conspiracy theory about US bio-weapons laboratories in Ukraine was seized on by Russian and Chinese media outlets (msn.com)

sburke,

I deliberately didn't post links, because I wanted you to go first read the realities of Snopes and do your own research so you couldn't say I rigged the results. I did offer to post the links I sent Steve, but only if he was cool with it. All I did in my post was to provide a quick summary of what I personally had found. At no time did I refer to either of the two sites named by you. While we're at it, another thing my own research turned up was DARPA work on genomic mapping of ethnic groups.    This has patently obvious BW application. 

Whether Steve agrees to my posting the links here or not, I make this offer: will send those who PM me a request the same links I sent Steve. Just include your email, so I can do this privately.

Regards,

John Kettler

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6 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

sburke,

I deliberately didn't post links, because I wanted you to go first read the realities of Snopes and do your own research so you couldn't say I rigged the results. I did offer to post the links I sent Steve, but only if he was cool with it. All I did in my post was to provide a quick summary of what I personally had found. At no time did I refer to either of the two sites named by you. While we're at it, another thing my own research turned up was DARPA work on genomic mapping of ethnic groups.    This has patently obvious BW application. 

Whether Steve agrees to my posting the links here or not, I make this offer: will send those who PM me a request the same links I sent Steve. Just include your email, so I can do this privately.

Regards,

John Kettler

Usually the information you link on this stuff is absolutely outlandish conspiracy theory sites. You are extraordinarily gullible, and worse are a victim of these people since you actually give them money.

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Has anyone here discovered, after visiting Ukrainian Twitter pages, say, that his/her computer slowed down dramatically? Have discovered that somehow a popunder got DLed that sends nuisance calls to Russia, or so the placard claims. In one instance, it showed almost 6000 calls had been made using my computer. The concept seems to be like the Project CSETI approach of shared computation, but here, it's shared annoying call generation. The popunder is full page and highly distinctive, with bold use of Ukraine's flag color. Have killed it several times, but I guess one or more of the Ukrainian Twitter sites has this thing on there just waiting for a visitor, whereupon it auto DLs and installs without notifying the computer owner. Have very good AV software on my rig, and this thing is going right through it with no alert whatsoever.

Regards,

John Kettler

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