billbindc Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 (edited) This feels right to me. It conforms with what seems to be happening in Xi's China at a slower pace but as Russia is in a nose to nose Darwinian struggle to remain competitive (it thinks in global terms but realistically more as a local spoiler) it is lunging backwards to the older silovik elite's half remembered Soviet bet on war economy productivity. In that light, putting in a grey economist to run the MoD makes perfect sense. Edited May 12 by billbindc 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poesel Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 3 hours ago, dan/california said: This is where the defense department has to commit long term. They need to build specialized fabs that can do the specialized semiconductors the civilian market won't support, IN QUANTITY. Buying five hand built systems per year, produced by the modern equivalent medieval master craftsmen has to stop. No need. These chips are produced in the millions. Only problem is that much of that happens on Taiwan. And the DoD seems to be committed to that already. 2 hours ago, chrisl said: A low power radar will always look like a beacon for a much longer range than it functions effectively as a radar. An enemy that knows you have them will just toss some sensor/munition package into the mix to fly into your radar until it's gone. I guess you think about that kilowatt class, spinning things? But radar can also be very small. Take this for example (which is not suitable, because the range is only 12m - just for example): http://hk-suntec.cn/en/product-8871-37864.html Output power is 0.04W. If you can detect that, you can probably already see it with the naked eye. Ok, I'm just saying, that such a system would be technically feasible and solve the el-cheapo quadcopter problem. But it doesn't exist, and so I'm either wrong or they are still fixing the bugs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fireship4 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 8 minutes ago, poesel said: I guess you think about that kilowatt class, spinning things? You may already know but I think he was just referring to the fact that radar has to go out and come back to a reciever for it to see the target, but only has to reach the target to be detected, which will be at a longer range for all obvious cases. Various technologies would likely alter this calculous, having recievers forward and emitters back, various stealthy scanning modes, quantum nonsense, etc. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldSarge Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 11 minutes ago, poesel said: No need. These chips are produced in the millions. Only problem is that much of that happens on Taiwan. And the DoD seems to be committed to that already. One of the understated successes of the Biden administration is the commitment to restore chip manufacturing back in the U.S. "President Biden announced a deal with Intel that will give the chipmaker up to $8.5 billion in grants and another $11 billion in loans to build semiconductor plants in four states — the biggest project to date in his push to bring chips manufacturing back to America." Biden is giving Intel $8.5 billion for big semiconductor projects in 4 states "The US government plans to give $6.6 billion to the world’s biggest manufacturer of semiconductor chips to help it build three factories in Arizona as part of President Joe Biden’s efforts to secure the supply of advanced chips." Biden to give Taiwan’s TSMC $6.6 billion to ramp up US chip production It'll take time for these facilities to be built and equipped. As well to train up a pool of skilled workers, but it is in the pipeline. Hopefully, we're in front of the curve and not trying to play catch up with a peer adversary. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 (edited) 2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said: We've seen this in Ukraine. Defensive primacy doesn't mean ... I know. Stuff is complex, yo. And yet over the last couple of years we have had any number of simplistic hand-wavey "answers" to the issues Ukraine is facing. $500,000 ghillie suits! Leopards! Gavins loaded with 40mm grenade launchers! AI! F16s! DPICM! Robots! HIMARS! Future tech that doesn't exist! Etc. Edited May 12 by JonS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 (edited) 46 minutes ago, poesel said: No need. These chips are produced in the millions. Only problem is that much of that happens on Taiwan. And the DoD seems to be committed to that already. I guess you think about that kilowatt class, spinning things? But radar can also be very small. Take this for example (which is not suitable, because the range is only 12m - just for example): http://hk-suntec.cn/en/product-8871-37864.html Output power is 0.04W. If you can detect that, you can probably already see it with the naked eye. Ok, I'm just saying, that such a system would be technically feasible and solve the el-cheapo quadcopter problem. But it doesn't exist, and so I'm either wrong or they are still fixing the bugs. Even with tiny patch antennas you're going to be a beacon for a much longer range than you have a functional radar. Radar depends on reflectivity, so the radar has a detector that's sensing something like (signal)*(reflectance)*(1/4r^2)ish, where reflectance is some number less than 1. Probably significantly less than 1. I don't even need a better detector than the radar - if I'm using the exact same detector, I get the signal without the reflectivity term and without the 4. Realistically, if you're generating any kind of periodic signal I can detect it and triangulate on it at a *much* larger range than you can usefully use it as a radar. All I need is a lock-in amplifier and a couple good clocks and I can work down at the background noise limit. Edited May 12 by chrisl 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poesel Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 22 minutes ago, chrisl said: Realistically, if you're generating any kind of periodic signal I can detect it and triangulate on it at a *much* larger range than you can usefully use it as a radar. All I need is a lock-in amplifier and a couple good clocks and I can work down at the background noise limit. If radar detection & triangulation is that easy, I'm wondering why anyone in this conflict still has a radar dish? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 2 hours ago, JonS said: This is incoherent. Strategically, is the US military (and The West generally) an offensive force, or a defensive one? If it's defensive (as in, maintain-the-status-quo defensive), then there's nothing to fret about. Defensive primacy? Bring it on, baby! If you're worried about /restoring/ the status quo, then your argument kind of fails at the first hurdle, since it presupposes that any actor can somehow magically overcome this defensive primacy. So, which is it; defensive primacy, or Serbia could overrun Europe tomorrow if they wanted to? I am saying that almost all the tech trends are leaning into defensive primacy So much so that offensive action against anyone who is competent and prepared gets exponentially more expensive, to the extent that is might be practically impossible 7 minutes ago, poesel said: If radar detection & triangulation is that easy, I'm wondering why anyone in this conflict still has a radar dish? There is an awful lot of video to the effect that the Russians have fewer of them every day. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alison Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 (edited) 6 hours ago, The_Capt said: It is the fact that they are walking...and the UA can see them walking that is blowing my mind. Artillery? FPVs? Sniper? In the grand scheme this is still pretty minor as invasions go but to let it happen uncontested with the RA walking in is not a good thing. This is the thing that makes me question the idea that C4ISR is some kind of all-seeing eye that makes everything else obsolete. How did this latest maneuver not get spotted and countered before it even began? Was this really such a surprise attack? Even without high tech satellites, are there also no spies in Belgorod, the oblast that has literally had a couple of rebel units marauding through it during this war? A favorable reading of the situation is that actually this advance was anticipated, but the AFU decided it wasn't worth bringing the full force to bear to defend some villages near the border. This might make strategic sense, but if the government maintains the line that the troops are fighting nobly but losing anyway, then it creates a contradiction in the propaganda. We can talk all we like about defensive primacy and unpassable minefields, but if some guys can (literally?) march across your border simply because they have more guys in the area than you do, seems like unmanned isn't quite fulfilling its promise just yet. Edited May 12 by alison typo 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 30 minutes ago, poesel said: If radar detection & triangulation is that easy, I'm wondering why anyone in this conflict still has a radar dish? Murphy's Laws of Combat #12: there's always more targets than there is ammunition, so try to look unimportant. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 40 minutes ago, poesel said: If radar detection & triangulation is that easy, I'm wondering why anyone in this conflict still has a radar dish? Yeah. Maybe the technology just hasn't caught up yet. But anti-radiation munitions aren't exactly common. Ukraine used HARM and now mostly seems to use static targeting cruise missiles to target air defences. Same with Russia, most of the time we hear of destroyed Ukrainian AD it's Iskander or similar. I would totally expect Shaheds or equivalents that are programmed to go in the middle of Ukraine/Russia and target any stronger radar that's along the way, but I don't think we've seen it. In the end, I think it's a pretty advanced capability that hasn't been commodified yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 59 minutes ago, alison said: This is the thing that makes me question the idea that C4ISR is some kind of all-seeing eye that makes everything else obsolete. How did this latest maneuver not get spotted and countered before it even began? Was this really such a surprise attack? Even without high tech satellites, are there also no spies in Belgorod, the oblast that has literally had a couple of rebel units marauding through it during this war? A favorable reading of the situation is that actually this advance was anticipated, but the AFU decided it wasn't worth bringing the full force to bear to defend some villages near the border. This might make strategic sense, but if the government maintains the line that the troops are fighting nobly but losing anyway, then it creates a contradiction in the propaganda. We can talk all we like about defensive primacy and unpassable minefields, but if some guys can (literally?) march across your border simply because they have more guys in the area than you do, seems like unmanned isn't quite fulfilling its promise just yet. Good questions but way too soon to really know. I would be very surprised if it wasn’t picked up, but human error is still a thing. And maybe the UA is simply stretched too thin and is scrambling to respond now. Of course in the “hey ISR and drones are making it weird” column…why are these RA troops largely dismounted in the first place? Maybe they went all dispersed infantry infiltration, which may have worked. But this advance is at a walking pace, why did they not go mech if this whole line was that poorly defended? Unmanned may have fulfilled it promise simply by forcing the RA to walk in the first place. Why wasn’t this a major mech spearhead like doctrine calls for? My honest guess is that someone dropped the ball here. Not a system failure, just plain old human error. Intel gets ignored or disbelieved. Kit only works if people actually use it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 2 hours ago, poesel said: If radar detection & triangulation is that easy, I'm wondering why anyone in this conflict still has a radar dish? Because nobody's actually turning them on lest they attract attention? Detecting a radar transmitter is almost by definition easier than detecting something using the radar. It's how EM fields work. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony P. Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 2 hours ago, chrisl said: Realistically, if you're generating any kind of periodic signal I can detect it and triangulate on it at a *much* larger range than you can usefully use it as a radar. All I need is a lock-in amplifier and a couple good clocks and I can work down at the background noise limit. I think you are entirely overestimating the "noise levels" of a few small millimeter wavelength radars, especially considering* the fact that they'll be emitting at <10ft AGL and likely behind more than one physical terrain or man made object (no points for tracking radar emissions from something you've got a direct line of sight to, that would be tech overkill on par with using an X-ray machine to determine if you left your keys in your left pocket or the right one). *Even more especially when you consider that AESA radars are used in many of the latest APS'. You'd have a fun time eliminating background noise when trying to pinpoint a radar which changes frequeny with every single sweep. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisl Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 11 minutes ago, Anthony P. said: I think you are entirely overestimating the "noise levels" of a few small millimeter wavelength radars, especially considering* the fact that they'll be emitting at <10ft AGL and likely behind more than one physical terrain or man made object (no points for tracking radar emissions from something you've got a direct line of sight to, that would be tech overkill on par with using an X-ray machine to determine if you left your keys in your left pocket or the right one). *Even more especially when you consider that AESA radars are used in many of the latest APS'. You'd have a fun time eliminating background noise when trying to pinpoint a radar which changes frequeny with every single sweep. If they're defending against top-attack weapons they have to be transmitting into clear sky. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimbosbread Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 Yeah if you have to scan actively, it won’t work. An optical/acoustic auto-shotty turret for $150k, that’s at least passive. But if you are constantly emitting, anything with some antennas and software (say an RTL SDR and some antennas for $60) is gonna know where you are immediately. That’s no bueno. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 5 hours ago, alison said: This is the thing that makes me question the idea that C4ISR is some kind of all-seeing eye that makes everything else obsolete. How did this latest maneuver not get spotted and countered before it even began? Was this really such a surprise attack? Even without high tech satellites, are there also no spies in Belgorod, the oblast that has literally had a couple of rebel units marauding through it during this war? A favorable reading of the situation is that actually this advance was anticipated, but the AFU decided it wasn't worth bringing the full force to bear to defend some villages near the border. This might make strategic sense, but if the government maintains the line that the troops are fighting nobly but losing anyway, then it creates a contradiction in the propaganda. We can talk all we like about defensive primacy and unpassable minefields, but if some guys can (literally?) march across your border simply because they have more guys in the area than you do, seems like unmanned isn't quite fulfilling its promise just yet. Adding to what The_Capt said, there are indications that Ukraine knew this attack was building up and might have even understood the Russian time table. Which means, like the initial invasion in February 2022, there wasn't much surprise from a strategic standpoint. Where things are still murky is why the initial phase of the Russian attack appears to be as successful as it is. The_Capt suggests what I was thinking and that is Ukraine miscalculated how this attack would come (i.e. mechanized meat waves) and was caught unprepared for how it actually played out (i.e. dismounted walking pace). Or it could be that Ukraine underestimated the strength of its defenses. Or it could be they suspected things would go poorly, but were unable to unwilling to redirect assets into place to correct for that. All that we know is that Russia's initial assault gained more ground more quickly than anything they've done since Summer 2022. Beyond that we really don't know much yet. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: Adding to what The_Capt said, there are indications that Ukraine knew this attack was building up and might have even understood the Russian time table. Which means, like the initial invasion in February 2022, there wasn't much surprise from a strategic standpoint. Where things are still murky is why the initial phase of the Russian attack appears to be as successful as it is. The_Capt suggests what I was thinking and that is Ukraine miscalculated how this attack would come (i.e. mechanized meat waves) and was caught unprepared for how it actually played out (i.e. dismounted walking pace). Or it could be that Ukraine underestimated the strength of its defenses. Or it could be they suspected things would go poorly, but were unable to unwilling to redirect assets into place to correct for that. All that we know is that Russia's initial assault gained more ground more quickly than anything they've done since Summer 2022. Beyond that we really don't know much yet. Steve Can I throw out one more possibility? The Restrictions on U.S. supplied weapons may be such that Ukraine finds it too difficult to defend the areas that are immediately adjacent to the border. They have to let the Russians advance far enough that the critical support nodes are on Ukrainian territory. Just guess, but not the worst one I ever made, JonS keeps an annotated lists of those. Edit: And I still think high tech ghillies suits will be a thing.... Edited May 13 by dan/california 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeyD Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 A standard rule of thumb is the attacker always has the initial advantage. They get to choose where, when and by what method to attack. Initial defense is reactive. This is what got Egypt over the Suez canal and into Sinai, what got the North Vietnamese army into Huế, and the German army behind Bastogne. Then, after that, comes the rest of the battle. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 14 minutes ago, dan/california said: Can I throw out one more possibility? The Restrictions on U.S. supplied weapons may be such that Ukraine finds it too difficult to defend the areas that are immediately adjacent to the border. They have to let the Russians advance far enough that the critical support nodes are on Ukrainian territory. It is possible that the border presented unique challenges to Ukraine's planned response, but I doubt that is why Russian forces are where they are right now. The other possibilities are more plausible. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 ISW has a large section of its daily report dedicated to the Shoigu related reshuffling: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-12-2024 Quote Several Russian insider sources similarly responded to Belousov's new position and claimed that it shows that Putin has serious concerns over corruption levels and misuse of funds within the Russian military, conflicts between the military and the Russian DIB, and the perceived inefficacy of the Russian MoD as a whole I have another take on it that is in keeping with the above, but has a slightly different focus. Putin surely knew and approved of overt corruption within the high ranks of the MoD since, well, forever. He may have been surprised at how much ill effect it had on military performance, but whatever surprise was there was likely realized in 2022. So if he didn't mind high amounts of corruption for decades before the war, and must have understood how bad it was after the war started, why did he wait nearly 2 years to do anything about it? I see three possibilities: 1. Clan politics made any meaningful move against the MoD clan quite problematic, so Putin followed his old motto of "when the going gets tough, the tough kicks the can down the road". Putin was likely hoping that factors would change so that a crack down action would either be easier, less troublesome, or perhaps even unnecessary. Ukraine surrendering, for example, would give Putin all sorts of maneuver room. Since the war continues and so do its costs, I'm thinking that Putin acted against Shoigu and his buddies because of strain on the federal budget. The scope of theft within the MoD is so high, both in absolute and relative terms, it is the sensible place to look for budget relief. 2. Putin is heeding warnings that stocks of resources the MoD traditionally relies upon are finite and the timeline for impacting offensive operations is fast approaching. As a result he decided that the highly corrupt and inefficient relationship between the MoD and industry needed to be improved in order to extend Russia's ability to continue the war. 3. Some combination of the two, with emphasis more or less on one or the other. My guess is #3 with a heavier emphasis on general budgetary issues. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 46 minutes ago, dan/california said: Can I throw out one more possibility? The Restrictions on U.S. supplied weapons may be such that Ukraine finds it too difficult to defend the areas that are immediately adjacent to the border. They have to let the Russians advance far enough that the critical support nodes are on Ukrainian territory. Just guess, but not the worst one I ever made, JonS keeps an annotated lists of those. Edit: And I still think high tech ghillies suits will be a thing.... Interestingly, ISW stated the inability to use Western weapons on Russian soil is a significant factor. As I said above, I don't buy it as being the primary reason the frontline has shifted as much or as fast as it has. I think other factors are more at play. Also, the ISW report reminds me of something similar they said earlier in the war. I'm forgetting what it was, but when we discussed it here it seemed to me that we largely felt ISW was overstating the importance of the West's restrictions. Dang, I wish I could remember what it was! Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offshoot Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 Reporting from Ukraine has a narrative on the Kharkiv offensive ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hi_mMG9Bdwk ). According to him, it is under the command of General Aleksandr Lapin (who lost at Lyman) and Ukrainian intelligence knew about the build up, the numbers of Russian troops involved (50,000) and roughly when the Russians were going to start. Given the number of Russians is way too small to achieve possible objectives of taking Kharkiv or Vovchansk, his conclusion is that the main purpose is to try and draw Ukrainians away from other areas to make gains there easier, but it hasn't worked so far. Apparently there are also heavy fortifications around Kharkiv and east so it's possible the Ukrainians were prepared to yield ground. The Russians also have not just strolled in unopposed but have suffered losses there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vanir Ausf B Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1789876549841310195 The situation regarding the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region at 5:00 a.m. on May 13 During the day, the enemy started fighting in the border villages of Hlyboke and Staritsa in the Kharkiv direction. But it was not possible to completely occupy the villages, infantry contact battles are being fought for them. The enemy is trying to advance to the village of Liptsi, but was unable to reach the village. In the direction of Vovchansk, the enemy entered the outskirts of Vovchansk, the outer streets and the Vovchansk meat processing plant. But the city remains almost completely under our control, the enemy was not allowed to advance deep. Near Vovchansk, our artillery and drones work effectively against the infantry, and the enemy's losses are significant. I am here, so I see the situation with my own eyes. Defenses are being strengthened in the city. The enemy is active, groups of infantry are trying to break through our battle formations in different areas. On May 12, the Russians attacked for the first time near Vovchansk with several tanks with minesweepers, but the attack was repulsed. On May 12, the Russians tried to advance in almost all directions, but everywhere they met the resistance of the Ukrainian troops, and now the enemy is forced to conduct assaults. Faced with the consolidation of our battle formations, and with the need to attack strongholds that hinder further offensives, the enemy lost the opportunity to maneuver. And now the losses of the Russians began to increase sharply. On the first day of the offensive, due to certain problems, the command of OTU "Kharkiv" was changed. The new commander is a person with experience and competence. Control and awareness are improving, but not as quickly as we would like. Management and organization at the highest level is our primary and key concern. In terms of ammunition: our troops are equipped with artillery shells. By people: there are problems with the low complexity of the parts, but the enemy does not have a multiple advantage. Regarding the fortifications: they were built in the Kharkiv direction, but the enemy did not reach these lines. For some reason, the defensive lines are not tied to tactically advantageous heights, the main battles continue where the positions are not equipped, and it is necessary to dig in now. That is why there is a misunderstanding in the troops that there are no fortifications exactly where they are needed, and why it is necessary to bury ourselves in the landings again. In the direction of Vovchansk - the city is not prepared for defense. There are no details yet, but it is not a secret for the enemy, since local residents are not displaced, and enemy drones often make overflights. Regarding the actions of our troops: there are experienced commanders and units, the organization of defense, the definition of the front line, interaction is emerging and improving. The chaos on the broad front is not completely overcome, but the situation is improving. The situation remains difficult, the Russian troops have the initiative due to their overall numerical superiority, pre-planned actions on a wide front, but there are currently no prerequisites for a breakthrough on our front. Prediction of the enemy's actions for the day: the Russians will try to advance further into the area of residential development in Vovchansk, advance in the direction of Staritsa, and cling to the buildings of Lyptsiv and Ternovoi. The battle continues, the enemy continues to act actively, so the situation is very tense. All units in the direction are in dire need of drones. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony P. Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 10 hours ago, chrisl said: If they're defending against top-attack weapons they have to be transmitting into clear sky. 7 hours ago, kimbosbread said: Yeah if you have to scan actively, it won’t work. An optical/acoustic auto-shotty turret for $150k, that’s at least passive. But if you are constantly emitting, anything with some antennas and software (say an RTL SDR and some antennas for $60) is gonna know where you are immediately. That’s no bueno. The overwhelming majority of ATGMs do not perform high diving attacks which would necessitate radars pointed skywards. Further, radars which would look straight up would obviously give ground based detectors even less to work with, and again, AESA: at present time, there's simply no way you could filter out background noise since the radar alters frequency every single sweep. The big issue I'd really point out here is your assumption that the APS will be transmitting 24/7, 365 days a year. Why would it? Of course it'll be turned off for tactical considerations, just the same as how no one keeps their radios transmitting non stop. By the logic you're applying here, radios would've been a dead technology to the military even before WW1. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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