How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Calamine Waffles]

I think the only realistic way forward for Ukraine and the EU states bordering Russia/its proxies is they follow the Israeli model with large amounts of generous US aid.

[chuckdyke]

Talking about Quick being German's quality is non-negotiable. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

This war is not only a threat, but also an opportunity for Ukraine. Perhaps one that will never return. That should be carefully considered. I think Zelensky and his advisors realize this. Securing a good position for the future might even be worth 30.000 casualties, but yes, it's Russian roulette.

Suffering 30,000 casualties today for a victory that could come on a silver platter tomorrow or the next day might be the choice. 

Russia will not support the Donbas indefinitely.  In fact, this is one of the reasons why Putin launched the war.  With reduced economic resources and restive populations throughout traditionally Russian territory, who do you think is going to get the short end of the stick?  A lot of places, Donbas included.  What do you think the people there are going to do in 5 years when their infrastructure is still shattered and their prospects for anything other than scraping by through life remain unchanged?  Put out feelers to Ukraine for a rapprochement?  I think it is more likely than not.  And if it doesn't happen, then Ukraine isn't burdened with a bunch of troublemakers living amongst the ruins they made for themselves.

No, sorry.  I do not believe Ukraine is forced into a "now or never" situation.  Life is not that permanent.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting Russian take on mobilization, though the end is a little "dated" by yesterday's events:

I don't think we can judge Russia's EVENTUAL reaction to mobilization by the pathetically small and ineffectual protests we saw yesterday and are likely to see today.  It might take a few 10s of thousands of dead coming home before mass unrest happens, but if that's what will do it then Ukraine can make arrangements to bring it to reality.

We might also see significant protests start after they are told by loved ones that the promised training and equipment turns out to be "here's how to shoot a PPSh, now off to the front with you!  Your tracksuit is fine as is".

Another point to consider is what's going to happen when contractors, whose time was supposed to be over, are told they can't leave for home for another 6 months?  What might happen to protests at home if word gets out that there's widespread desertion and inter-unit fighting going on in Ukraine?

My point here is that the Russian populace might not be upset enough yet to hit the streets in large numbers, but I have faith that Putin is doing everything necessary to make it happen.  He is, after all, a master strategist.

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

26 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Forward he cried, from the rear / as the front rank dieeeeeeed.....

 

Well, that's a reproach that can be made to all of us armchair generals, including the ones who preach restraint and compassion, like yourself. But okay, in the end it's up to Ukraine to decide when it's enough.

But gentle healers make stinking wounds, as a dutch proverb says. That's how I see it.

Edited September 23, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Taranis]

Vladimir Putin says he is “satisfied” after a prisoner exchange

Quote

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have expressed "satisfaction" after a prisoner swap with Ukraine involving foreign fighters, mediated by Riyadh. kyiv announced on Wednesday that it had recovered 215 Ukrainian and foreign fighters during an exchange with Moscow, which, for its part, recovered 55 Russian prisoners, including ex-MP Viktor Medvedchuk, a close friend of Mr. Putin, accused of high betrayal in Ukraine.

Shortly before, Riyadh announced the transfer to Saudi Arabia of five Britons, two Americans, a Moroccan, a Swede and a Croat as part of this exchange. The five released Britons returned to the UK on Thursday.

From Le Monde

[Battlefront.com]

Video showing the release of Ukrainian prisoners.  As others have pointed out, they got a hero's welcome while the Russians probably had to hitchhike home (or maybe they got to ride in police vehicles?).

 

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

24 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

But gentle healers make stinking wounds, as a dutch proverb says.

 

Threeche!

....OK quick, let's angrily insult each other again before someone suggests we get a room.  Or remake a 1980s 'buddy film'. I was gonna post a clip from 'Tango and Cash' but it was just too awful....

EDIT: this one is *much* better. It's even (very marginally) related to the topic.

Edited September 23, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Grigb]

Things are heating up, so new map:

• Seem UKR got a foothold at Karpivka
• UKR pushed RU defender in Drobishevo to outskierts and possibly cut them off

[Haiduk]

9 hours ago, kevinkin said:

 

"Any way you count it, the figures are stark: Ukrainian casualties are running at a rate of somewhere between 6oo and 1,000 a day. One presidential adviser, Oleksiy Arestovych, told the Guardian this week it was 150 killed and 800 wounded daily; another, Mykhaylo Podolyak, told the BBC that 100 to 200 Ukrainian troops a day were being killed."

Is Arestovych to be taken seriously? Or is he trying to gin up more western support with erroneous causality rates

 

 

Arestovich is just speaking head, no more.

Сasualties about 150-200+KIA for a day have related to short time period from last days of May to mid of June, when we suffered critical lack of 152 mm shells, especially on Donbas, and most of theese losses were exactly on Donbas. As told representative of General Staff average rate of KiA usually not exceed 30-50 for a day

[Hapless]

Now this is an interesting list of coordinates:

Which makes this (from further down Girkin's thread):

Assuming it's not been leaked out in an attempt to give Russian milbloggers an aneurysm, it seems like a good example of the kind of ISR support Ukraine is getting from NATO.

[Grigb]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't think we can judge Russia's EVENTUAL reaction to mobilization by the pathetically small and ineffectual protests we saw yesterday and are likely to see today. 

Apart from RU Nats the public is in internal panic. The semi-comfortable world they lived in until 21 is collapsing now. Everybody is looking for the ways for long term escape. 

Everybody is confused and trying to cope now with the prospect of conscription. They are like fish thrown out on the shore - grasping for air not understanding what is going on and trying to think of a way to return to an old semi-comfortable life.  

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Hapless said:

Now this is an interesting list of coordinates:

Which makes this (from further down Girkin's thread):

Assuming it's not been leaked out in an attempt to give Russian milbloggers an aneurysm, it seems like a good example of the kind of ISR support Ukraine is getting from NATO.

Just in case - this is from an alleged NATO intel report to UKR that was stolen recently by RU Nat agents in AFU.

[kraze]

1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

The Dutch and the English also thought they could plant their flag anywhere and it belonged to them. New York was swapped for Surinam. Indonesia was also horse-traded for some territories in Malaya and Sri Lanka. Locals didn't have a say. putin unfortunately for him was born two hundred years too late. 

Locals of those empires certainly did have a say. It's the reason those flags were planted everywhere. It wasn't a will of one random guy that held his people by the magic spell.

Any country is an abstract construct that has zero weight in physical reality around us, but lots of weight in people's minds. And it's people who set the rules about how the country will exist. Some set the rules about it being democratic being led by a temporary manager with main task making the country as competitive economically and technologically as possible, some want it to be totalitarian being led by a strong warlord that will give them free stuff by taking it from the others.

"Evil tyrants" is just Disney stuff. In reality if people didn't want to consider somebody their leader - they never would and he'd be a nobody.

[LongLeftFlank]

19 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Now this is an interesting list of coordinates:

Which makes this (from further down Girkin's thread):

Assuming it's not been leaked out in an attempt to give Russian milbloggers an aneurysm, it seems like a good example of the kind of ISR support Ukraine is getting from NATO.

This is.... simply epic.

If PAPER is ground forces, and SCISSORS is artillery, then UA may be at last be able to solve for ROCK. 

And notice UKR has hung on to most of their combat aircraft and helos.

Edited September 23, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[chuckdyke]

6 minutes ago, kraze said:

Locals of those empires certainly did have a say. It's the reason those flags were planted everywhere. It wasn't a will of one random guy that held his people by the magic spell.

Ignorance. If you went to the far east, it would take years before you came back. The form of government was anything but democratic. The people who run Unilever today were glorified pirates in the 17th and 18th century. The printing press was only a few hundred years old. Books were for the very rich. When I was a kid an encyclopedia cost three months wages. Today thanks to the internet we can have dialog which is required to have peace. 

[Ts4EVER]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

2. Meanwhile, much of the Old Left blogosphere has now gone full Tankie: Greenwald, Johnstone, Mate, Varoufakis, etc.

'Old Left' news aggregator NakedCapitalism has long vanished into the Looking Glass circular firing squad too. They just cross-reference the same tiny circle of Red Pill Experts continuously, like Gorgons passing around a single (myopic) eyeball:

• - MacGregor
• - Moon Of Alabama (anonymous)
• - Scott Ritter
• - Gonzola Lira
• - Michael Hudson
• - Alexander Mercouris

....with any 'supporting data' invariably sourced via Sputnik, RT, RU twitter, etc. Or else Chicken Little defeatists like Zorn and Roepke.

If anyone speaks German and is interested in a less stupid leftist perspective, the recent Jacobine magazine has an interesting analysis of Russian imperialism.

[Taranis]

Binkov's POV about mobilization :

10 minutes. Nothing we don't already know. But it's still fun to watch I think. And maybe something a good sumup. The Russians are going to send poorly trained, poorly motivated, poorly equipped soldiers. Difference between theory and practice, full mobilization disguised in partial one etc...

[Taranis]

Estonia must 'prepare for power cuts', Prime Minister says

Quote

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas called on the nation "to prepare for power cuts - this includes governments, businesses and every individual", Reuters reported. "We must also be prepared for Russia to disconnect Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from their electricity grid," she said.

From Le Monde

[Grossman]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

There is a very tried and true "rule of three" for most things in life.  Something can be made quickly (speed), inexpensively (price), or well executed (quality).  Like it or not, you can only have two out of the three.  Quick and cheap, but not quality.  Quality and quick, but not cheap.  Inexpensive and quality, but not quick.

Ukraine needs to figure out what the choices are and consciously decide what it is most important to it and dispense with the rest.

Steve

Steve....the Ukrainians want all their land back to pre-2014 borders incl Crimea, an entry into the EU and weapons to defend themselves against any future Russian aggression. As you say, things happen quickly. Putin has overreached himself politically in Russia with the mobilisation, he's upset the ancient medieval relationship in Russia between the people and their rulers with the educated classes. Resolution will likely come within Russia, after reports of conditions at the front, the treatment of the educated conscripts, the returning bodybags. The quality of a society is determined at times like these. In return the west must offer Russia a Marshal Plan, and dictate the required democratic reforms, similar to German reconstruction post WW2.

[chuckdyke]

11 minutes ago, Grossman said:

Steve....the Ukrainians want all their land back

Stalin wanted all German SS executed. What happened and what the dictator wanted were two different things. The outcome was Nuremberg. 

[FancyCat]

56 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

What if pushing for this results in 30,000 casualties?  What if pushing for Crimea right now results in a nuclear blight in the middle of its territory?  What if getting the Donbas saddles Ukraine with an insurgency and black hole budget to support it for the next 10 years?

These are the sorts of things Ukraine must think about.  My position, established dozens of pages ago, is that Ukraine should put its immediate focus on retaking the 2022 borders and put all thoughts of militarily taking the rest of Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea on the back burner until it does.  At that time it can evaluate what the best course of action is and go from there.  With any luck there will be collapses to take advantage of.

Steve

I don't think anyone is really suggesting Zelensky and the ZSU plan only for taking Crimea and the Donbas. Long way to go. But it's worth some planners, there is a reintegration ministry. 

Now, you make a good point that I've been saying a lot, Ukraine can't knock Russia out, its impossible, the scenario of 1991 is the best scenario, war crime trials are a pipedream, money is possible, maybe some of the deported citizens can be found and sent back to Ukraine, but the threat of Russia returning in some capacity will always be there, Ukraine in NATO and EU or not (alliances fall apart, Empires do too)

If the next round of Russia vs Ukraine comes again, which scenario benefits Ukraine more, Crimea within Russian control, or Crimea under Ukrainian control? (Sealanes!) You know if the next time comes around and there isn't a EU to financially support Ukraine, those sealanes are going to be essential for keeping the economy afloat. 30k is a lot of casualties but I think ensuring the economy of Ukraine isn't placed on life support every time Russia aims a anti-ship missile in the Black Sea is well worth it. 

It's also worth noting that if you take the Donbas and not Crimea, you still lose the Sea of Azov. For rebuilding the Donbas region, opening the Sea of Azov is essential. 

Regarding the nuclear risks, I just want to point out that if nuclear warfare is legitimized in any scenario, that is a loss worldwide. That it might happen over Crimea, would legitimize nuclear use to keep non-recognized territory only 8 years old? That is catastrophic. China's position on use of nuclear devices is no first strike, and no use at all. China's intervention in the Korean War nearly resulted in the U.S launching nukes on mainland China (not even in Korea!) to stop the Chinese advance. Consider the modern scenario of Taiwan, and Taiwan or the U.S seeking out a nuclear response to prevent a successful Chinese annexation. 

China does not want that. India facing Pakistan, does not want that as well. I suspect the little nudges of positions that occurred are in no small part a warning to Russia that nuclear escalation is not supported by them. 

So let us zoom out, and look at the risks of nuclear escalation over Crimea. China won't support Russia, India won't either, the West has a lot of incentive to let Ukraine do what should to retake it. Ukraine's position, I think I've laid out clearly why Crimea being retaken is more important to instead letting Russia keep it.

Russia has a strong reason to pretend Crimea is a loss it cannot accept, mainly cause they got little else to pull off in the event of militarily squaring off in Crimea. When Russia says that the anger of the people of Russia over losing Crimea makes it politically infeasible for Russia to give it up, I think its probably more bull**** than truth. 

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

There are three separate goals which are inextricably linked together:

1. Ukraine returns to its 1991 borders
2. nothing turns radioactive, be it a nuke plant or dropping some form of nuke ordinance
3. Russia ceases to be able to function in its traditional imperialist and genocidal form.  Not just Putin's regime, but anybody who might want to keep Russia rolling down the same path

I'm guessing that everybody that is participating in this thread, and probably the vast majority reading it in lurker mode, agree with all three of these goals.  If someone disagrees, I'm curious to know where I got it wrong.

Ok, I kind of disagree with #1. I said so earlier but let me elaborate.

We, or Ukraine for that matter, should consider the "why?". My point may be academic because I can't look into the heads of those who decide and the net result is the same, anyway.

So, going back to 1991, meaning retaking Crimea and the Donbas.

Is it, as you put it, about returning to 1991 borders, i.e. taking a map from that time and saying "look here, those lines belong here instead of there"? I deliberately make it sound a trivial matter because lines on maps are just an abstract concept. I am very happy that in this day and age we are far less inclined to go to war just in order to shift lines on maps. Hell, nations are a somewhat abstract concept for that matter. If it is only about that, no I don't agree with that goal.

Now, if it means liberating Ukrainians having to live under Russias yoke, that is a different and very legitimate matter. But. We've had a good number of pages now filled with discussions about whether the majority of people in the Donbas or on Crimea actually want to be liberated. I won't speculate on that because I simply lack the knowledge. I'll say that we should try to avoid double standards here and grant regions the right to secede from countries we don't like (Taiwan and China anyone?) and don't when it is from country we are more aligned with.

Goes into the same direction: Preventing Russian war crimes. Yes, of course!

Preventing Russia from blocking Ukrainian access the black sea. Also fine.

Retaking the lost territory just to discourage Russia (or other imperialists out there) from trying to invade other countries - a good reason too.

So, there, IMO, there are good, bad and somewhat mixed reasons and I can't agree with all of them. As I said my thinking here may be academic. Probably the reason for wanting to go back to 1991 borders is a mix of some or all of the above points.

[FancyCat]

15 minutes ago, Grossman said:

In return the west must offer Russia a Marshal Plan, and dictate the required democratic reforms, similar to German reconstruction post WW2.

How are you going to occupy Russia to enforce those reforms? German reconstruction occurred under its absolute division into 4 parts, and then 2 parts, lest we not forget, Germany was utterly defeated and turned into a occupation zone. 

[Zeleban]