How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

It explains the rankings of the Tour de France. A Russian on a bicycle would be hard to beat. 

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Conclusion -> Russia's dreams of imperial expansion are dead for the foreseeable future no matter what happens with this war.  Shouldn't this be taken into consideration when figuring out what options are available OTHER than brute force liberation of Crimea?  I for sure think it should be.

 

There's still unconventional warfare with which Russia can cause a lot of misery in iUkraine, the Baltics and other countries. That's why Carthage (Putin and his thugs, but also Russian extreme nationalism and it's ability to wage war) must be destroyed.

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

 

Well when we want his friend at CGSC to turn off the cloaking device and join the discussion it behooves us to be nice to him...

He does jealously guard that cloaking device. But I will discuss the matter with him, calmly and judiciously. And when that doesn’t work…

[LongLeftFlank]

15 hours ago, MSBoxer said:

Eh, I was more of an Oingo Boingo kind of guy.
****
This one's for Vova!!!

 

 

[Taranis]

Interesting stuff from Le Monde :
"The political apathy of the Russians, long favored by the power, is put to the test by the announcements made by Vladimir Putin. Like on a WhatsApp discussion between inhabitants of a small town near Moscow, where we usually discuss everything, except politics.

In the local residents' chat, reality knocks on the window: "It's not about panic, just my nephew... His last leave has been canceled, now we can send him there at any time. “My uncle has just had a heart attack, but we made him sign a paper assuring that everything is fine. And there, at work, they were asked to bring their military booklet! “My husband has been stressing about this case for two weeks trying to figure out if he will. Frankly, it's going to be genocide on both sides. »

In the exchanges, one word keeps coming back: “war”. Taboo for seven months, removed from the official vocabulary, and which now flies from house to house. With him, the very clear feeling of switching into something new. For thirty years, in villages without pipes, in cities with broken pavements, a mantra served to justify everything: “At least there is no war…”

On thousands of other chats comparable to those of the anonymous small town, on social networks, for the less cautious, it is the same explosion of sourness: “Where are our famous supersonic weapons? “I am not ready to die for the ruins of Donbass or for Putin” “Let the deputies go there first, remembering to take their children living abroad. Because me, during my service, I mainly learned to wash the floors. »
For such messages, in recent weeks Russian citizens have been prosecuted."

[LongLeftFlank]

1. LOL

LOL, Ep. 2.

LOL 3. Yup....

 

 

Edited September 22, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[kraze]

2 minutes ago, Taranis said:

On thousands of other chats comparable to those of the anonymous small town, on social networks, for the less cautious, it is the same explosion of sourness: “Where are our famous supersonic weapons? “I am not ready to die for the ruins of Donbass or for Putin” 

You gotta love these brutal russian protests that make putin scared for his life:

"Why can't you just murder all Ukrainians with supersonic weapons, why do I have to do it now?!"

[Zeleban]

 

Despite the complete superiority of Russia at sea, Ukrainian boats of the Island class continue to be used to patrol the territorial waters of Ukraine.

[Huba]

Slowly sinking:

 

[LongLeftFlank]

17 minutes ago, kraze said:

You gotta love these brutal russian protests that make putin scared for his life:

"Why can't you just murder all Ukrainians with supersonic weapons, why do I have to do it now?!"

OK, that's a like.

Also, interesting points here on 'Potemkin mobilization....'

Edited September 22, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Taranis]

13 minutes ago, kraze said:

You gotta love these brutal russian protests that make putin scared for his life:

"Why can't you just murder all Ukrainians with supersonic weapons, why do I have to do it now?!"

Doesn't it remind you of the Germans who were waiting for their Wunderwaffen which were to change the course of the war ?

Unless it is ultimately the Ukrainians who are Ubermenschen thanks to their Blitz Spirit 

[LongLeftFlank]

3 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Doesn't it remind you of the Germans who were waiting for their Wunderwaffen which were to change the course of the war ?

Unless it is ultimately the Ukrainians who are Ubermenschen thanks to their Blitz Spirit 

But at least the self-pitying Huns got conquered, with their cities bombed flat and their armies destroyed.

[Huba]

I think we missed that in the heat of yesterday's discussions. Seaborne unmanned is often overlooked, and very unrightfuly. Assuming this baby has satellite comms (and why not, weight/ space is not an issue really), it could be extremely useful. Ideally I'd have one sitting in Dnipro, observing RU ferry movements. And of course infiltrating Sevastopol/ BSF deployment areas. Also, these things at the bow look like contact fuses to me, and given the size of it having a few hundred kilograms of explosives onboard sounds perfectly plausible:

 

[poesel]

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So nuclear “takes some time”, like maybe ten years?  

I haven't said that. I said that switching over the supply from Russian uranium rods to another supplier takes more time than switching over from Russian gas or oil. The former needs a lengthy certification process, while the latter just needs an adjustment in the process.
There is an oil processing plant in East Germany which was basically the end of a Russian oil pipeline. They will now be delivered from the West. They had to retool their process, but AFAIK that didn't take that long.
Russian made reactors use a hexagonal fuel rod design (IIRC) that is unique to them. You'll need to find another supplier who will make them, and they need to be certified. With nuclear fuel rods, a quite sensible precaution. No one is going to insure a plant without that.

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

And by realign I mean get it back to pre-war prices and security.  Germany had 55% of its gas from Russia https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/08/energy-crisis-germany-europe/

Yes, and now it is practically 0% and still all predictions say that we will get over the winter.
Prices will stay high, no doubt. I haven't said otherwise. But we want to get rid (or let's say: 'use much less') of the stuff anyway. So although quite harsh in the short term, this is good in the long term. A very unpopular opinion, I'm sure.

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

It will re-wire that but it is not going to be magically solved price-wise by next year, capitalism is good but not that good.  Europe will get energy but getting back to pre-war prices is likely going to take some time. 

I doubt that we will get back to pre-war prices at all. There's still global warming going on (which is the bigger crisis unless it's solved by nuclear winter) and this war is 'just' accelerating the necessary changes which we would have to do anyway.

That may sound a bit cynical with all the suffering evolved, but those are some of the consequences of this conflict IMHO.

[Taranis]

"A man walks through the gymnasium of the school that served as a Russian military hospital in the recently recaptured area of Izyum, Ukraine, Wednesday, September 21, 2022. EVGENIY MALOLETKA / AP"

[Aragorn2002]

40 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

But at least the self-pitying Huns got conquered, with their cities bombed flat and their armies destroyed.

So it is okay to punish an entire people after all. Well, well, well.

Apart from that I remember fierce and indignant discussions about qualifications such as "Japs" or "Orcs" on this site. But it still okay to call the Germans "Huns"?

Double standards, as usual. And no moderator in sight. Fortunately I'm not into complaining about people by reporting them. So childish.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[FancyCat]

Still mulling over the Azov exchange, years and years of them being marked as war criminals, and they get handed over, top commanders and foreign mercenaries to boot. Gonna suggest that the partial mobilization, may have been partly due to or scheduled to ensure that no one pays hopefully too much attention to the Azov escaping Russian justice.

I recall a bit ago, where Ukraine had stated if the Azov defenders were tried and executed, there would be no negotiations. Obviously since then, we have had more important red lines appear, including the referendums, someone else had stated this was a signal Putin is open to talks, decent chance that this is also one of the preconditions for talks by Ukraine. The referendums, can be held on hold whenever as needed as leverage by Russia. Killing the commanders of Azov, not really a way to turn the clock on their deaths. 

Maybe there is a chance for Ukraine and Russian peace after all sooner than later. Now, in a scenario like this, while I doubt Ukraine won’t settle for anything less than February borders as ceasefire line, maybe Russia gets to pull out of Kherson in good order. Perhaps Zelensky has enough leeway to let them escape thanks to this prisoner exchange.

Of course, maybe it just comes down to Putin wanting Medvedchuk back for some strange reason. And some generals bagged during Izyum. 

Edited September 22, 2022 by FancyCat

[paxromana]

7 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

And some generals bagged during Izyum. 

But ... but ... but .... according to the new laws just passed, surrendering - or even being captured - is a crime - shades of 1941.

So, unless he wants to shoot the returning soldiers ... double standards, anyone?

Edited September 22, 2022 by paxromana

[LongLeftFlank]

22 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

So it is okay to punish an entire people after all. Well, well, well.

Apart from that I remember fierce and indignant discussions about qualifications such as "Japs" or "Orcs" on this site. But it still okay to call the Germans "Huns"?

Double standards, as usual. And no moderator in sight. Fortunately I'm not into complaining about people by reporting them. So childish.

Grind whatever axes you need to, mate....

But I *know* you are a student of military history, and are well aware that the Allied Occupation officers, particularly the British, got heartily sick of hearing the wailing self-pity of the postwar German burghers, as though they were just minding their own business when their world caved in....

It shows up in countless memoirs, as well as my own (English) Dad's visit to Frankfurt and Koln in 1948.

Empathy for no-one but themselves, klar?

[paxromana]

8 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I recall a bit ago, where Ukraine had stated if the Azov defenders were tried and executed, there would be no negotiations.

What about the ones the Russians murdered in a claimed Ukrainian missile attack?

[Zeleban]

Battle Buryats retreat to Mongolia

[chuckdyke]

8 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Grind whatever axes you need to, mate....

We know a little bit more than you about the conditions in Europe. What else forcing amputees who happened to be POWs to play soccer. It was all in good fun I suppose and can be dismissed as wailing. 

[Zeleban]

And on the border with Finland, things are not very good.

[Zeleban]

 

They say that this is the border with Kazakhstan

[Peregrine]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I recommend reading ISW's first page of the report from Sept 21.  They used their usual solid insight and assessment about the mobilization announcements and of the nuclear threat.

+1 to the above. Every story I read today apart from the above that contained "nuclear" in the reference to Putin's recent announcements was not really presenting it in accurate context.