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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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5 hours ago, paxromana said:

Actually, I know that the changeover from 4 man to three man tank crews (T-64 onwards) was allegedly a major maintenance problem for the Pact ... fewer crew to do the same amount of routine maintenance to prevent the too soon need for major repairs ... in a society where there were too few mechanics and techs to cope with the demands of even the civilian sector, let alone the military ...

But consider the high tech T-14 ... all that automation and (for Russia) cutting edge tech, perhaps an order of magnitude more than that of the T-90 ... and a three man crew of barely trained conscripts or contract soldiers bullied and extorted by their own officers and wider society ...

How many klicks would it be likely to make down the road before it breaks down and is abandoned?

Paper ... nah ... Soggy Tissue Paper ... Tiger or not?

T-14 broke down at their victory sect parade a few years back and had to be towed (what a foreshadowing) - and only the best and most reliable models are usually used at parades.

Russian propaganda surely made T-14 and Su-57 look like an unstoppable force of nature, but the same they did to their whole army.

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It looks like they will only get 3 weeks training in the UK - I am not sure how much they can learn in that time? I mean it is great that the UK is offering training, but is it not better to have a more stability rather than getting flown out of basic training for 3 weeks in a foreign country? 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-offer-major-training-programme-for-ukrainian-forces-as-prime-minister-hails-their-victorious-determination

Edited by hcrof
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3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Veteran war correspondent Aris Roussinos spent some time with the 'Right Sector' forces in the Horlivka sector, Donetsk front.

https://unherd.com/2022/06/on-the-frontline-with-the-right-sector-militia/

There's a lot of worthy political ('no, we aren't nazis') discussion and human interest which I won't summarize here, but also some military bits:

The steppe landscape of the Donbas region is rippled with folds and gullies; the copses of tall oaks that have taken root in these shallow nooks provide perfect cover for guerrilla war, an archipelago in the endless sea of grass and ripening wheat.

Interesting bits and a lot of personal stories; 'Francuz' is indeed well known celebrity-soldier of this war.

Several other reporters hanging out with right-wing volunteer batalions also reported about lots of them carrying granades in case they get close to get captured... One soldier serving longer in ATO even engraved his own "suicide" granade in silver and covered it with elaborate quotes from Ukrainian classical authors like Schevchenko.

Edited by Beleg85
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9 minutes ago, hcrof said:

It looks like they will only get 3 weeks training in the UK - I am not sure how much they can learn in that time? I mean it is great that the UK is offering training, but is it not better to have a more stability rather than getting flown out of basic training for 3 weeks in a foreign country? 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-offer-major-training-programme-for-ukrainian-forces-as-prime-minister-hails-their-victorious-determination

Their drill and locker layouts will be up to scratch at least 😉

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35 minutes ago, hcrof said:

It looks like they will only get 3 weeks training in the UK - I am not sure how much they can learn in that time? I mean it is great that the UK is offering training, but is it not better to have a more stability rather than getting flown out of basic training for 3 weeks in a foreign country? 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-offer-major-training-programme-for-ukrainian-forces-as-prime-minister-hails-their-victorious-determination

I wonder how useful it would be to train soldiers without fear of missile attacks? Ukraine needs to conduct training in secrecy, with troops and instructors divided in such a manner to avoid losing significant numbers should a portion be struck. Take them out of Ukraine, truck them just to Poland even and that fear washes away, and you can train them without fear of losing any of them. (And probably in more closer conditions and bigger class sizes)

Mind you, while it's only the UK offering, with how previous offers go, the rest of NATO will participate, imagine significant numbers of Ukrainian troops getting training in NATO arms in safe countries without fear of attack. We already know a big reason why Ukraine cannot take advantage of all NATO offers, is the need to train, train them in country and all the prior secrecy mentioned, including safeguarding significant assets has to occur. Move them into NATO territory, the ones who train, more of them can get to the front lines with the slated equipment while training gets done with stuff not being sent to Ukraine. NATO trainers can replace more Ukrainian trainers than if all training occurred in country.

Now, imagine if we could truck in Ukrainians into France, Germany, Poland, the Baltics, we could train thousands simultaneously in safe conditions. Someone who knows more, correct me if I'm wrong, but the UK offer if it can actually scale up and be useful, could harbinger large scale training in NATO territory, which has not occurred yet I believe.

If I were Russia, I would call this a escalation, and threaten accordingly (much good it would do) cause one advantage and hope for Russia is to use their artillery to simply blast away the trained units of the Ukrainian military, even it up for more green units to face the territory seizing Russian units who are facing their own training and manpower issues.

Maybe it's just my impression, but the safe harbor of NATO as a training ground should not be underestimated by any means. Especially when Ukraine and Ukrainians require the preservation of their mobilized manpower for victory.

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UKR struck with missiles Russian military objects in Snizhne, Donetsk oblast (occupied since 2014). Locals write in TG missiles hit vehicles base on the territory of some factory and it's burning now

Also new strike in Nova Kakhovka

Зображення

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Lukeshanka activates again. During meeting with Putin in Petersburg, during traditional rants about West, Luka stated that Lithuania "blocking" Kaliningrad is in fact declaration of war. There are also treats of placing Iskander missiles in Belarus and most importantly using country territory as a place of storage for nuclear weapons.

This joined with recent strikes and informations about Belarusian army giving its ammo stockpiles to Russians seems to indicate Lukashenka position himself before new NATO summit as "anti-NATO" axis together with Russia. Putin swallows Bielarus slowly but consequently, and Lukashenka try to manouvre.

Rather pathetic and entirely expected. The news about nuclear weapons are there probably to scare the West.

 

Edited by Beleg85
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11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

UKR struck with missiles Russian military objects in Snizhne, Donetsk oblast (occupied since 2014). Locals write in TG missiles hit vehicles base on the territory of some factory and it's burning now

Also new strike in Nova Kakhovka

Зображення

HIMARS/GMLRS is letting Ukraine work a target list they have been developing since 2014. The LPR/DPR have built an entire military infrastructure that assumed Ukraine did not have precision deep strike. The arrival of that capability is going to be extraordinarily painful for the DPR?LPR forces. 

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7 hours ago, Grigb said:

For different audience RU propaganda sends different messages. They are threatening Germans with gas. They cannot threaten UK with gas, so they are threatening it with missile strikes. Ukraine they threaten with actual missile strikes.

This is nearly identical to a threat made very early in the war related to some specific weapon system that was being talked about going to Ukraine.  The weapon system went anyway, London still stands ;)

Steve

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25 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Lukeshanka activates again. During meeting with Putin in Petersburg, during traditional rants about West, Luka stated that Lithuania "blocking" Kaliningrad is in fact declaration of war.

Soooo... if Lithuania demanded it be allowed to send stuff, including weapons, through Belarus to Ukraine and Lukashenko refused... act of war?

Sorry bub, transiting stuff through someone else's territory is one of those things that the owner of said territory has a choice about.  Which is why you are supposed to be NICE to your neighbors.

Steve

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