How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

13 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Well, well I have always wondered what Iran gets out of toppling Yemen (besides squeezing the Saudis from two sides) but control of the international waterways did not occur to me.

I had assumed Houthis were just the regular Islamist militia with AKs, RPGs and Toyota trucks. But Iran has really upgraded their capabilities while the West was sleeping on it.

Sleeping indeed. I'm convinced there's a sick 'master plan' behind all this, which was thought out in Moscow and Peking. We can expect a lot more 'conflicts' and 'incidents'. Cold War all over again.

[Aragorn2002]

11 hours ago, Haiduk said:

It was his choice to live in Spain. He took own former girl with him. Probably through her Russians could track him. But it can be also GUR special operation with fake death, after which this guy will dissappear like Kuzminov and will be completely other person with new face, passport and life story

I rather doubt the latter, since this news will discourage other Russian desertors from defecting.

[pugstorm]

4 hours ago, Offshoot said:

Some analysis on the Battle of Irpin River (Feb-March 2022) by the British Army Review (54 page PDF). As well as the historical analysis it looks like it would be valuable for campaign designers.

Battle of Irpin River

I found it on Mick Ryan's twitter

 

Read this at work today can not recommend it enough.

[cesmonkey]

 

https://t.me/censor_net/45708
 

Quote

We brought you incredible news and video

In one working day, the fighters of the Bulava strike unit from the B. Khmelnytskyi OPBr used drones worth 200,000 hryvnias and burned tens of millions of enemy equipment️

The Pidars were collecting equipment for an offensive in the south, but Ukrainian pilots tracked them down and shot them with Wild Hornets drones as if in a shooting range.

Notice how the pilot professionally and systematically flies into the hangar and selects the equipment to destroy. As a result, the entire hangar completely burned down.

In total, on that day, the Mace pilots destroyed:

Two C60 installations based on ZIL
Two T72 tanks
BMP-3
Rare Terminator armored combat vehicle
Gazelle
Two Urals from BC

Fantasy. Support the warriors!

 

[Bulletpoint]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Nordstream debate.  It's unnecessary and not in keeping with the discussion standards here.

My take on it is Grigb's new information (that Putin is saying it's basically operational) adds to the the existing theories that Russia was the only one with the means and motivate to blow it up and there is some physical evidence to suggest this to be true.

I don't think this is new information though?

There were two lines, each with two pipes (A & B). Nordstream 1 had both pipes destroyed, Nordstream 2 only had one pipe destroyed.

But, interestingly, there were four explosions. Nordstream 2 Pipe A was blown up two times at two different times, in two different locations. Leaving Pipe B intact. All this is on the Wiki.

To me , this suggests that whoever was behind the bombings intended all four pipes to be destroyed, but that they made a mistake and hit the same pipe twice. Probably because they were in a hurry and there was poor visibility in the water.

[Carolus]

Nevermind, gentlemen.

Edited February 20 by Carolus
ninja'ed by cessmonkey

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/0QPb2M/sverige-skickar-stridsbat-90-till-ukraina

The new Swedish military aid package includes ($700 million )

▪ 10 Stridsbåt 90-class amphibious assault boats;
▪ 20 amphibious assault boats;
▪ underwater weapons (mines and torpedoes);
▪ a number of anti-aircraft systems such as Robot 70;
▪ anti-tank robots of the TOW model;
▪ grenade launchers with ammunition;
▪ artillery ammunition;
▪ hand grenades;
▪ Carl Gustaf grenade launchers;
▪ medical equipment;
▪ ambulances.

In addition, 
▪ $100M be spent on the purchase of military equipment through the funds, 
▪ $100M will be spent on new Stridsfordon 90 combat vehicles for Ukraine.

Edited February 20 by The_MonkeyKing

[Kinophile]

 

[Holien]

As others already noted yesterday, now the BBC reporting in the murder of the Russian pilot.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68337794

Another Russian killed by the Mafia running Russia.

[Kraft]

I heard starting today polish farmers will block all entries to Ukraine, be that rail or road, regardless if it is critical military cargo.

Anyone know if that is actually happening?

[Hapless]

Nothing like flying drones inside buildings:

[Butschi]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

My take on it is Grigb's new information (that Putin is saying it's basically operational) adds to the the existing theories that Russia was the only one with the means and motivate to blow it up and there is some physical evidence to suggest this to be true.

However, as persuasive as this line of thinking is, it's not proven factual even if there's no better explanation (and I've yet to see one).

I think the discussion got a little heated because of the tone, not the subject itself. You've just presented a perfect example of how to phrase your point given compelling but not conclusive facts.

I will not reiterate my post and just remark that being rude and trying to discredit people with a different opinion as stupid and/or pro Russian instead of arguing their points is the very opposite of this style.

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Obviously this is a bit of sensitive topic because there's way too many that have formed opinions that the West (US in particular) or Ukraine was behind it.  The alternative theories are helpful to Russia, even if unintentionally.

Can't speak for everyone here, I'd put it the other way round. I haven't yet seen enough evidence to completely dismiss other possibilities. I'm fully aware that "It was the US!" is a favorite topic in certain circles. E.g. our company forums can be a "fun" place at times and I'm telling those people the same thing (plus that I think that the US are among the less likely candidates, btw). That's something to keep in mind but I think we shouldn't fall into the trap of censoring ourselves because Putin fanboys happen to say something similar. If keeping an open mind in the absence of solid evidence sometimes helps Putin then so be it because the opposite would help Putin even more. It's a hallmark of autocracies to be told what's true (and to convict people without presenting evidence), after all.

[Butschi]

10 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Please make it happen.

 

 

 

Hm, haven't found much about this in German news, except this article (in German):

https://www.stern.de/politik/deutschland/ukraine--taurus-kehrtwende--ampel-fraktionen-erhoehen-druck-auf-scholz-34473170.html

 

[Bulletpoint]

18 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I'm fully aware that "It was the US!" is a favorite topic in certain circles. E.g. our company forums can be a "fun" place at times and I'm telling those people the same thing (plus that I think that the US are among the less likely candidates, btw).

Do you mean it's less likely that it was the actual USA itself, or that you don't think it was any country aligned with the US?

Edited February 20 by Bulletpoint

[Tux]

12 hours ago, billbindc said:

FPV dog fights are already a thing: 

 

And so, it begins.

 

[edit:  dammit, Capt!]

Edited February 20 by Tux
The one time I post without reading any further first!

[Kinophile]

 

[Kinophile]

Not a, BMPT, a BREM. 

 

[Grigb]

RDK just published post that they were working on freeing Navalny. 

Quote

Since the beginning of October 2023, we, together with our supporters from among the employees of the law enforcement agencies of the Russian Federation, have been developing a plan to rescue Alexei Navalny from correctional colony No. 6 in the Vladimir region, ferry him to the border with Ukraine, where he was supposed to be transferred to the RDK recon group in order to evacuate to the territory of Ukraine...

They described a rather detailed plan. It looks reasonable for me.

 

[EDIT] for example here webcam shots

[EDIT 2] Looks like these guys are more powerful than we thought.

A foreword by RU partisan group

Quote

"According to the plan, Alexei Navalny was to be retaken from the convoy on the way to IK-3 [prison] in the Yamalo-Nenets region by our group, and then together with him we immediately had to go to the border territory with Ukraine, to meet with RDK recon group to cross the border and to obtain the asylum. Unfortunately, the security measures taken by the FSIN [RU Prison service] and the FSB to prevent such scenarios turned out to be quite effective. The date of Alexey's movement was constnatly changing and that is the public was kept in the dark. The date and time of the movement were postponed several times, but at the end it began unexpectadly, by direct oral order of the head of the FSIN and our group did not have time to move to the area of the planned start of the operation.

At the date of Alexei's death, the plan was in the stage of processing for IK-3. Nevertheless, we are ready to share some of the data and photographic materials that we received during the preparation."

 

Edited February 20 by Grigb

[hcrof]

25 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Not a, BMPT, a BREM. 

 

To be honest an armoured recovery vehicle is probably more useful to the Russians than another tank at this point (yes I called a BMPT a tank, the purists are all clutching their pearls right now...)

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

heard starting today polish farmers will block all entries to Ukraine, be that rail or road, regardless if it is critical military cargo.

Anyone know if that is actually happening?

Another episode of grain wars. Blocking military transport is beyond their abilities (they did tried twice but were pushed away by police), but they indeed blockade today entries and choke points in and outside the country, be it Ukrainian or Polish transport. They get wrecked by unfair competition very seriously in last year, some of them grew really desparate so protests are accordingly much more fierce. It's real issue and emotions (and propaganda efforts) on both Ukrainian and farmer' side are raging high.

This time though some pro-Russian onuce (our name for Russian Vth column) are noticeably more visible and not even hiding. In some protests they are not welcomed, in others they are the forefront- on one border crossing they managed to pass the cordon and spill corn from several wagons, while singing national antheim... They dwell on farmers' resentments like bacteria on spoiled bread.

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

I don't think this is new information though?

There were two lines, each with two pipes (A & B). Nordstream 1 had both pipes destroyed, Nordstream 2 only had one pipe destroyed.

New information is Putin statement that the pipe is actually in fully operational condition and can start working shortly. 

Interestingly Putin himself said the following: "Say [to us], "We want to receive." [You will] start receiving it tomorrow. A week is needed."

Now, in RU we do not normally say "start receiving it tomorrow. A week is needed." That's two different time periods. Usually we say "start receiving it soon. A week is needed." Two different time periods in short span usually indicate that a speaker first disclosed something that he was not supposed to disclose.

So, the pipe is in very good condition and capable of starting operation within a week or even just a day.

 

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

But, interestingly, there were four explosions...To me , this suggests that whoever was behind the bombings intended all four pipes to be destroyed, but that they made a mistake and hit the same pipe twice. Probably because they were in a hurry and there was poor visibility in the water.

That would be reasonable assessment before Putin statement. Now we know the fourth explosion caused at most only artificial damage, most likely no damage at all.

The saboteurs were unlucky twice, and in both situations, the unluck was extremely advantageous to RU.

[The_Capt]

48 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Not a, BMPT, a BREM. 

 

That makes the strike much higher value.  An entire Bde might only have one or two of these.  They are more specialized equipment that directly impact the RAs ability to sustain its fleets through battlefield recovery.  While another AFV…is just another AFV, no matter how sexy.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Hapless said:

Nothing like flying drones inside buildings:

All cheap nets would have done, assuming someone doesn’t figure out a tandem attack, is make this warehouse a HIMARs target. The FPVs just made it a lot cheaper to strike.

This is the real problem with these little things, the cost to protect goes up very quickly and won’t solve for other systems.  Up armoring was discussed, which will be the first play, but more amor and protective systems drive costs up.  They drive weight up dramatically, engine requirements and wear and tear, electronic systems - all impacting both capabilities and sustainability.  I am sure we will try to “bubble wrap” our existing systems to try and make them “drone proof” but it will not work.  We are going to need new systems.

[Beleg85]

Menawhile, value of human remains in "conservative and unspoilled" Russia...

Curiously, "weeping mother" figure is one few strong archetypes in Russian culture that even tough despotic Tsars usually prefered to not engage against.

[Bulletpoint]

4 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Menawhile, value of human remains in "conservative and unspoilled" Russia...

Curiously, "weeping mother" figure is one few strong archetypes in Russian culture that even tough despotic Tsars usually prefered to not engage against.

His body has probably already been cremated to prevent forensics. Just like Osama Bin Laden was "buried at sea" so nobody could check the official narrative.