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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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16 hours ago, sburke said:

Nah, it’s gonna be “l’ve got the meat right here!”

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Vladimir Putin crisis as ex-military chief warns Russia will run out of troops in weeks (msn.com)

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A former commander of Vladimir Putin's army has forecast the army will soon run out of men, leaving Russia with no forces to push forward with the invasion of Ukraine.

Igor Girkin, who played a leading role in Putin's annexation of Crimea in 2014, said he doesn't expect the Kremlin to green-light a "broad offensive" in 2024 because of the lack of men.

Writing from prison, Girkin argued the Russian President would need to resume mobilising civilians to fill up the ranks but will likely wait until March's presidential election to give the order.

In a letter shared on his Telegram channel, the self-proclaimed Russian nationalist said: "There will be no mobilisation yet-until the 'elections' for sure.


"They will try to patch up 'holes in the ranks' and new units at the expense of prisoners and contract soldiers."

 

Hi Mr Girkin,

Your ride is here.  What didn't they tell you?  You've been mobilized.

 

Meanwhile, heart disease continues to strike down Russian journalists.

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A journalist who took aim at Russian officials and promised to release details of "gigantic corruption" was found dead near a roadside over the weekend, but the circumstances of his death remain shrouded in mystery. 

"It will be almost impossible to determine whether foul play was involved Rybin’s death or whether he died of heart disease as some Russian media outlets claim," Rebekah Koffler, a strategic military intelligence analyst and the author of "Putin's Playbook," told Fox News Digital. 

 

 

Edited by sburke
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Something about the mobilisation of the home front in Ukraine which I have wondered about several times. Ukraine is really not in a situation to let things slide. It's survival now or never.

Problem remains the import of parts, which mostly come from China. That will be the bottleneck.

Edited by Carolus
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14 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Sensation! Russian captured one of those notorious and elusive Polish mercenery in Krynky! 

Native Polish speakers can evaluate level of copium %)

This guy says usual thing, he lives in Pulawy and came to Ukraine for money, Russian shelled Krynky, his Ukrianian unit fled and abandoned him wounded. In captivity he feels good, even better then in ZSU, got proper treatment

 

 

if he is Polish, I am Chinese. Bad pronunciation of the name of the town, bad sentence syntax, bad accent. I know Ukrainians who speak better after a year in Poland. 

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Two days ago, commander of Ground Forces Syrskiy: I would be want our ground forces have more air support, so we need A-10, AH-64 and UH-60

Day ago, commander of Air Forces Oleshchuk: I understand wishes of Ground Forces, but our priority is F-16, we havn't any resourses and time for training on A-10. In conditions of full Russian superiority in the air and AD systems, these aircraft will not survive. So, we need to get a parity with Russians in the sky, so as our Su-25 , Su-24 and Mi-24 could support ground forces in full strenght, so no need in A-10

...Something happened...

Commander of Air Forces Oleshchuk now (ok, let Mirage-2000D and A-10 will be too):

PS. As became knowingly Ukrainian diaspora in Australia created a petition to government to hand over MRH-90 Taipan (Australian version of NH90) helicopters to Ukraine. Australia had been entering to service 46 helicopters from 2007 to 2013. Since two helicopters crashed in 2023 all MRH-90 fleet was gounded and was making decision do not return them to service. Since Australion government offer to sell MRH-90 fleet to other NH90 operators didn't interest anybody, now these Taipans can be just scrapped or gradually disassembled for spare parts.  

Edited by Haiduk
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Drone operators of SBU "Alfa" Special Forces hit Russian soldier near Avdiivka. His comrades dragged him inside damaged and anandoned AMN-590951 "VPK-Ural" armored car, but... didn't close doors. This was huge mistake. Next FPV has flew directly in the open door, cooking off the armor and everybody, who was inside.

 

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Thoughts from one of UKR military TG "Officer":

While there is a delay in aid from partners - FPV drones rescue our as....s quite well. Main part of the aid, which is critically needed for us are artillery shells. Yes, not missiles and tanks. I don't argue - Bradleys are top vehiciles, they are really get the situation out, but several dozens of vehicles will not make a weather even on operational level.

Looking on that 2023 was a year of arty, shells for it are very needed for us, because 155mm is NATO caliber, which USSR didn't have. And now this is becoming a problem, because we depend on allies in this. 

For example, if in summer artillery battalion fired appox 500 shells, that now some more than 20.

Thanks God, we have such thing as FPV - cheap, portable, no need to tow heavy and big gun, which hard to hide. FPV have much more accuracy, this is "first person view ammunition". The accuracy is better than Excalibur. Our guys already hit targets on 25 km range and say this is not a limit. A single minus - FPVs are strongly affected by EW, but this can be compensated by mass-production.

The war is going on new level, 2024 will be a year of FPV drones. 

 

Edited by Haiduk
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13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Thanks God, we have such thing as FPV - cheap, portable, no need to tow heavy and big gun, which hard to hide. FPV have much more accuracy, this is "first person view ammunition". The accuracy is better than Excalibur. Our guys already hit targets on 25 km range and say this is not a limit. A single minus - FPVs are strongly affected by EW, but this can be compensated by mass-production.

Like many of us have said, look at the logistics and training footprint! Plus no tinnitus and TBI from firing artillery, no destroyed joints from lugging around 40kg shells. Plus no great counter-battery strategy.

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12 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Like many of us have said, look at the logistics and training footprint! Plus no tinnitus and TBI from firing artillery, no destroyed joints from lugging around 40kg shells. Plus no great counter-battery strategy.

On other hand FPV mostly fly with HEAT ammunition. It's good for vehicles, but not so effective against groups of infantry (if this not about to strike MG or ATGM crew on position). Yes, we already begin to use some other sort of ammunition, including HE airburst, but looks likel this is "garage-produced", not serial. So in present time FPV can't substitute 155 mm arty and mortars by delivered HE weight. 

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Member of Ukrainian defence council claims Russians lost A-50 somewhere near Berdyansk and Il-22 was damaged.

Big news if true, but we will need to wait for confirmation.

 

 

Edited by Beleg85
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On 1/13/2024 at 8:52 AM, The_Capt said:

Ok, that makes a kinda sense.  So where is the RA artillery and ISR?  A tank and a CV90 to clear a trench of 3-4 Russians is a pretty big force, and a big target.

Wouldn't be surprised if they were left to die or their comrades already withdrew with the equipment needed to actually defend.

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Little example that things are hard for at least some of the the RU forces (note there's a close up of desiccated corpse if that bothers anyone).  He does look a bit under nourished compared to the Chechen's we used to see.

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A Chechen fighter talks about the state of affairs at the front. He says that they are starving, drinking the water from puddles and suffering huge losses. Multiple casualties can be seen. He also says they are simply sitting in dugouts and are afraid to stick their heads out.

And a Leo 2 looking very workman like (the Balkenkreuz on one of these might annoy some though).

 

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32 minutes ago, sburke said:

"Gender-neutral" toilets in Ukraine cause outrage in Russia, where one in four have no access to sewage system (msn.com)

 

If 1 in 4 lack access to sewage does that mean 25% of Russia is already using gender neutral toilets?  🤪

Definitely. I once asked about a toilet at a petrol station on a Russian highway, IIRC somewhere near Rostov on the Don . The guy behind the counter made a sweeping gesture with his hand and with a great pathos declared: "U nas tualiet...priroda" ("Our toilet is...the nature"). Can't get more gender neutral than that.

 

 

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1 hour ago, sburke said:

"Gender-neutral" toilets in Ukraine cause outrage in Russia, where one in four have no access to sewage system (msn.com)

 

If 1 in 4 lack access to sewage does that mean 25% of Russia is already using gender neutral toilets?  🤪

I like to imagine that people who get their panties in a bunch over stuff like this must have separate, clearly marked, and strictly enforced toilets in their homes.

Edited by JonS
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3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Member of Ukrainian defence council claims Russians lost A-50 somewhere near Berdyansk and Il-22 was damaged.

Big news if true, but we will need to wait for confirmation.

 

 

This article on the Russian air force's operational choices (from Dec 04, 2023) discusses how the VKS have been pushing the A-50 further forward to try and keep their combat aircraft and air defence units safer, so it's not too out there that one might have been lost.

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"They will have to decide what costs them more: to lose one or more of these A-50s or to continue to see their combat aircraft and S-400 units progressively degraded," a Ukrainian expert told Breaking Defense.

 

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2 hours ago, JonS said:

I like to imagine that people who get their panties in a bunch over stuff like this must have separate, clearly marked, and strictly enforced toilets in their homes.

what you don't?  Our bathroom says "wife only" with an arrow pointing to the backyard door for the "men's room".  Though I gotta say our tomatoes do pretty well.  😀

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3 hours ago, JonS said:

I like to imagine that people who get their panties in a bunch over stuff like this must have separate, clearly marked, and strictly enforced toilets in their homes.

Thank goodness we live in world so free of strife & suffering& real problems that this kind of stuff is all that people have to get upset about.  What a wonderful world.  

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A friend of mine (a furry) dragged me to a fantastic party in SOMA (San Francisco) where I ran into a trans coworker of mine (also a furry), who was extremely drunk and remarked how she loved our employer, but one small improvement would be urinals in the womens’ bathrooms.

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