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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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8 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Member of Ukrainian defence council claims Russians lost A-50 somewhere near Berdyansk and Il-22 was damaged.

Big news if true, but we will need to wait for confirmation.

 

 

 

There are more RU telegram birdies singing about it, but they imply it was their own air defense.

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1 hour ago, Carolus said:

 

There are more RU telegram birdies singing about it, but they imply it was their own air defense.

For Russians often is better to blame friendly fire, than to recognize "pathetic khokhols" were able to destroy their "no-analog" system. In better case they will claim "NATO instructors controlled all process, NATO ELINT plane gave targeting, stupid khokhol just press the button, because khokhol-villagers so stupid, that they just unable fully operate with such complicated systems"

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31 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

For Russians often is better to blame friendly fire, than to recognize "pathetic khokhols" were able to destroy their "no-analog" system. In better case they will claim "NATO instructors controlled all process, NATO ELINT plane gave targeting, stupid khokhol just press the button, because khokhol-villagers so stupid, that they just unable fully operate with such complicated systems"

Aye, I didn't want to make it look that I take their implications as truth, but I wanted to mention it.

 

 

Skibitsky, an intelligence official from Ukraine, gives some comments on Russian rearmament efforts. 

 

Edited by Carolus
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18 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Thanks God, we have such thing as FPV - cheap, portable, no need to tow heavy and big gun, which hard to hide. FPV have much more accuracy, this is "first person view ammunition". The accuracy is better than Excalibur. Our guys already hit targets on 25 km range and say this is not a limit. A single minus - FPVs are strongly affected by EW, but this can be compensated by mass-production.

The war is going on new level, 2024 will be a year of FPV drones. 

This plus this

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Best point for FPV to cook off the tank is the hull top behind the turret

Here two nice fireballs

 

Sweet Jebus.  Looks like they are targeting the engine.  Strangely the shrinking western support could accelerate unmanned systems in this war.  I think one of the real lessons is that if Ukraine was armed with all these systems (plus C4ISR) on day one of this war, Russia likely would not have taken an inch.

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Swedish terrain trials with T-72M1, and MT-LB, vs Centurion with US Teledyne Continental diesel engine 750 hp. And PBV 302. 

Swedish terrain trials in autumn 1993 with T-80U (1250hp Gasturbine) vs Strv 104 (Centurion with US Teledyne Continental diesel engine 750hp) 

Swedish terrain trials in winter conditions 1993-94 with T-80U (1250hp gasturbine) vs Strv 103C with a Detroit 6V-53T (290 hk) diesel, and a Caterpillar 553 (490 hk) gasturbine. And the above Strv 104 Centurion with a US Dieselengine. 

Summary of the tests of the T-80U (in English)

Report from terrain trials with T-80U – Swedish tank archives (mod16.org)

Edited by Armorgunner
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Reportely Russian Su-34, launching a missile over Azov Sea "with great difficulty" could evade "high-speed missile", attacking his aircraft.  Allegedly jet radio exchange was intercepted and pilot said he was under atatck of missile, incoming with 3600 km/h speed. 

I think this could be Su-35, mostly they lauch missiles over Azov sea, not Su-34, though both are capable to do this.

image.png.52cdbe984453d26ee8ec0aaf3fabf936.png

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52 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Pretty close to frontlines.

Crashsite is in 110-115 km from frontline.

By unconfirmed rumors onboard of A-50 was a deputy commander of Long-range Aviation Command major-general Oleg Pchela (in past he was a commader of 22nd heavy bomber division) 

PS. also RUMINT - losses amid IL-22 crew - 2 KIA, 2 WIA

Before invasion Russia had 7 IL-22 and 12 IL-22M airborne command posts

One IL-22M was shot down during Wagner coup attempt. One more IL-22(M), but maybe it was IL-20 (SIGINT plane) was damaged by UKR "Buk", but could land.  

Edited by Haiduk
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2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This plus this

Plus this - I, alas can't find this screen from Russian TG for several days ago, Russian military blogger complained UKR uses over Krynky sophisticated drone control system - one big dron-transmitter, maintaining about two dozen independent control channels for FPV and recon drones for their longer range. Also over right bank of Dnipro flies UAV with "250x zoom" (probably exaggregation), which find the targets around Krynky, so they in few minutes can be attacked with drones or artilelry. Author complained that no possibility to reach that drone with MANPAD or ground forces AD system.

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Reads like a NATO exercise scenario, but it's being presented as a leaked top secret Bundeswehr war plan. This probably belongs with Polish and Swedish Military Chief war warnings, growing Western military leadership impatience with stuck politicians.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/15/7437227/

Source: Bild with reference to a secret Bundeswehr document

Details: Bild noted that, according to the document, escalation between NATO and Russia may take place as early as February 2024.

In a classified document (Top Secret – For Official Use Only), the German Federal Ministry of Defence outlines a potential "Path to Conflict" between Russia and NATO is detailed. The actions of Russia and the West are described month by month, culminating in the deployment of hundreds of thousands of NATO troops and the inevitable onset of war in the summer of 2025. 

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2 minutes ago, OBJ said:

Reads like a NATO exercise scenario, but it's being presented as a leaked top secret Bundeswehr war plan. This probably belongs with Polish and Swedish Military Chief war warnings, growing Western military leadership impatience with stuck politicians.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/15/7437227/

Source: Bild with reference to a secret Bundeswehr document

Details: Bild noted that, according to the document, escalation between NATO and Russia may take place as early as February 2024.

In a classified document (Top Secret – For Official Use Only), the German Federal Ministry of Defence outlines a potential "Path to Conflict" between Russia and NATO is detailed. The actions of Russia and the West are described month by month, culminating in the deployment of hundreds of thousands of NATO troops and the inevitable onset of war in the summer of 2025. 

It's just an exercise scenario.

Bild has blown it out of proportions by misrepresenting it as some sort of battle plan or expected threat.

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Explosions Reported at One of Russia's Largest Chemical Plants (msn.com)

Explosions have been reported at one of Russia's largest chemical plants in the Rostov region that borders Ukraine.

The pro-Ukrainian Eastern European news outlet Nexta said on Telegram Monday that local residents heard explosions before a fire started at the state-owned Kamensky plant in the city of Kamensk-Shakhtinsky.

It would mark the latest unexplained explosion to take place at a Russian facility. There have been a string of mysterious fires in Russia since President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Ukraine rarely claims responsibility for strikes on Russian soil.

The plant produces "special-purpose chemical products" for Russia's military aimed at "strengthening the country's defensive capabilities," according to the company's website, the AFP news agency reported in 2021 when a fire there caused multiple casualties.

Newsweek couldn't immediately verify the report and has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment by email.

"Workers were evacuated," NEXTA reported, publishing a nine-second clip that shows huge plumes of black smoke rising into the air.

It described the facility as "at one of the largest chemical enterprises in the south of the Russian Federation."

In August 2023, an independent Russian news outlet found that the number of explosions in Russia quadrupled in 2022, the year President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Verstka, a news organization founded shortly after the conflict began, cited figures from Russia's Ministry of Emergency Situations in its claim that a total of 83 explosions occurred in Russia in 2022—more than four times the number recorded in 2021 (20 explosions).

According to the publication, explosions on Russian soil in 2022 killed 55 people and injured 10,647 others. The outlet reported that the yearly number of explosions in Russia hadn't exceeded 20 in the previous 10 years, despite terrorist attacks and gas leaks in residential buildings. It also said that before 2022, the number of victims was in the hundreds, not thousands.

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34 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

 

They are targeting T-80BVM's Ammo rack, 

This trick probably doesn't work on T-72s

 

960x0.jpg?format=jpg&width=1440

Well that makes sense.  They probably know where to hit on the T72 as well.  One thing is definitely becoming clear - tanks and AFVs were never designed for this type of environment.  An opponent is not supposed to be able to pick which square inch to hit.  

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1 hour ago, OBJ said:

Source: Bild with reference to a secret Bundeswehr document

Details: Bild noted that, according to the document, escalation between NATO and Russia may take place as early as February 2024.

In a classified document (Top Secret – For Official Use Only), the German Federal Ministry of Defence outlines a potential "Path to Conflict" between Russia and NATO is detailed. The actions of Russia and the West are described month by month, culminating in the deployment of hundreds of thousands of NATO troops and the inevitable onset of war in the summer of 2025. 

We are waiting then. For now entire Russian Army cannot take 2 km bridgehead in God-forgotten village for already...what, 4 months?

Meanwhile, Russian propagandists continue their Anti-Anglo-Saxon crusade. UK is deemed to fall:

 

On serious note, this clip from droning of Russians is nothing particular, except apparent weight of explosive material used. Relatively rare example of entire building collapsing due to a single drone detonating inside.

 

 

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