How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[THH149]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

that simple statement of yours triggered all of my alarm bells

I'm very triggering!

Don't disagree with your points. You'all on this thread have come so far (after 2940+ pages) that there is also a lot of accepted wisdom (which may be either a reasonable ongoing assessment, a myth, an entirely skewed perspective or just incorrect) depending on what and when it applies to. especially relying on OSINT sources and some members whio imply they have secret sources. And of course, its so easy to fall into stereotypes 'cos thats the human condition.

But, I keep seeing claims how solid the Ukr is and how bad the russkies perform etc etc but wonder why they're still there.  But of course it 'cos they dont have F-16s and ATACMs.

Anyway, this is all a bit rhetorical from me. But, I remain Russo-Ukraine War curious!

[THH149]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

If you know "stuff" one does not go around saying "I know stuff but can't tell you"..

When I was doing national intel selection, a critical component was the lack of desire to tiktok or facebook everything you saw.

I would warrant that the guy going around say this stuff is nowhere near this stuff.

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, THH149 said:

I'm very triggering!

Don't disagree with your points. You'all on this thread have come so far (after 2940+ pages) that there is also a lot of accepted wisdom (which may be either a reasonable ongoing assessment, a myth, an entirely skewed perspective or just incorrect) depending on what and when it applies to. especially relying on OSINT sources and some members whio imply they have secret sources. And of course, its so easy to fall into stereotypes 'cos thats the human condition.

But, I keep seeing claims how solid the Ukr is and how bad the russkies perform etc etc but wonder why they're still there.  But of course it 'cos they dont have F-16s and ATACMs.

Anyway, this is all a bit rhetorical from me. But, I remain Russo-Ukraine War curious!

Well lets put it this way. The Russians have been bleeding close to 500 casualties a day 595 days longer than they had planned on. That is not exactly a huge military success.

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, THH149 said:

I'm very triggering!

Don't disagree with your points. You'all on this thread have come so far (after 2940+ pages) that there is also a lot of accepted wisdom (which may be either a reasonable ongoing assessment, a myth, an entirely skewed perspective or just incorrect) depending on what and when it applies to. especially relying on OSINT sources and some members whio imply they have secret sources. And of course, its so easy to fall into stereotypes 'cos thats the human condition.

But, I keep seeing claims how solid the Ukr is and how bad the russkies perform etc etc but wonder why they're still there.  But of course it 'cos they dont have F-16s and ATACMs.

Anyway, this is all a bit rhetorical from me. But, I remain Russo-Ukraine War curious!

Oh goody, that kid showed up.  Russia is “still there” because they dug in behind minefields and won’t leave, hardly the high water mark of military performance.  The UA defeated the initial invasion.  Created conditions for a Russian operational collapse, twice.  And are now working on a third.

Any chance you could be curious somewhere else if the sum total of your contribution is questionable, incited claims and pointing out that Jesus wasn’t really born on 25 Dec?  Asking for a friend.

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, THH149 said:

When I was doing national intel selection, a critical component was the lack of desire to tiktok or facebook everything you saw.

I would warrant that the guy going around say this stuff is nowhere near this stuff.

You do realize you just violated the principle of my initial post?  “Oh hey look everyone, THH149 did ‘national intel selection’!”

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, THH149 said:

But, I keep seeing claims how solid the Ukr is and how bad the russkies perform etc etc but wonder why they're still there.

Claims?  How about facts that we can verify?  It's not like every bit of information coming out of this war isn't verifiable.  For example, Russia invaded with an overwhelming force and got their arses kicked even before Ukraine had many Western weapons (mostly AT, like Javelin and NLAW).  Russians have lost almost all of the territory they gained except in the south and a chunk of Luhansk.  And as difficult as this counter offensive has been, Ukraine has made progress.  In Bakhmut they regained terrain in days that took the Russians months to take.  Kinda difficult to imagine everything going wrong for Russia without Ukraine being "solid".

As for the nitty gritty of the fighting, nearly 3000 pages of observations and discussions have been had.  Finding answers might be more productive than asking questions that are rather basic.

Why Russia is still there if it's doing so poorly?  We've discussed this in depth many times and it hasn't changed since March 2022.  The short of it is because Putin wants Ukraine eliminated, Russian culture allows for massive mistreatment, and fascist states do have their advantages.  Putin went into this war without a backup plan so either he admits defeat (and a shortened lifespan), or he keeps the war going until Ukraine is worn out in a war of attrition.  Doesn't matter what the Russian losses are, the Tzar needs his victory.

Steve

[THH149]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Situation around Avdiivka

Could you provide the source for this map? TIA

[THH149]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Steve

Sorry Steve, I can't like you post. But, Liked!

Edited October 12, 2023 by THH149

[THH149]

I found this X post very informative and well reasoned, explaining how Ukr will go onto win the war (praphrased as Morale beats Metal). 

One observation he made was that RF used a losing strategy "elastic defence" rather than "defence in depth", as measured by RF needing to deploy 2 airborne brigades as reinforcements, not to mention the losses he says the RF has suffered. 

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by THH149

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, THH149 said:

I found this X post very informative and well reasoned, explaining how Ukr will go onto win the war (praphrased as Morale beats Metal). 

One observation he made was that RF used a losing strategy "elastic defence" rather than "defence in depth", as measured by RF needing to deploy 2 airborne brigades as reinforcements, not to mention the losses he says the RF has suffered. 

 

OK, so here's something to consider about what you just posted.  Is it bad?  No, but it doesn't add anything to this discussion.  The Twitter guy fits into a type who is probably well meaning (some are just out for attention), but his audience (as he calls it) isn't our audience here.  Therefore, his Twitter post is not appropriate for this thread.  I will demonstrate:

The above poster stated this:

Therefore, as I have repeatedly said, in military analysis I am a novice, but one who has been "forced" to learn many new things out of respect for you, my audience.

I stopped reading when I got to this line.  I have no interest in spending time on something that is simply a regurgitation from someone who is an "expert" in order to get Followers and/or to be helpful in educating people who aren't very up on this sort of stuff.

Either way, the bulk of what he posted came from the most recent Perun video which, I'm guessing, many of us have already watched or have in their play list.  So if we want to know what Perun is saying, we listen to Perun (who I can not recommend highly enough).  Someone citing Perun and adding expert opinions/observations, on the other hand, would be interesting to see here.

OK, so now I'm going to sound like a snob, but I'm concerned that if I don't hand out some well meaning advice that thread regulars are going to start getting testy (and hitting Ignore on your posts).  So please take this as constructive and not dismissive advice...

In Uni (college for us Yanks) there are different levels of classes to attend within a given subject.  Nobody expects the advanced stuff to be taught to the entry level students, and the advanced students aren't interested in repeating the intro level material.  This thread stands out from many other discussions on the war because it is, for sure, in the advanced category.  We want to keep it that way because that is what makes it stand out from the rest.

This is a great place to learn about the war, but it might be best if you follow along for a little while before jumping in with contributions.  That way you will be more familiar with what this thread is about and the sorts of things which are viewed by participants as productive (more or less).  To return to the Uni analogy, it would be better for you to do your own homework outside of this thread instead of doing it from inside of it.

Hope that comes off sounding helpful as that is my intention.

Steve

[cesmonkey]

Belgium expects to use $2.4 billion in tax on frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belgium-expects-use-24-bln-tax-frozen-russian-assets-fund-ukraine-2023-10-11/

[Battlefront.com]

Compare and contrast:

 

https://www.axios.com/2023/10/11/zelensky-israel-hamas-war-gaza-visit-netanyahu

With this:

Russia really doesn't want to have any friends, does it?

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

Ukraine's accounting for Russia's losses in the Avdiivka assault.  And look... a Terminator!  If this is correct it would be, what, the second one confirmed destroyed?  They are also officially stating that a Su-25 was downed, but still no visual confirmation as far as I know.

 

Possibly one less TOS-1 to worry about:

The Girkin Twitter account has a number of posts pertaining to Avdiivka that I haven't seen yet.  This one shows yet more MT-LB modifications.  Ersatz APC?

Rob Lee also has some worthwhile videos from Avdiivka, but there is also this... Russian footage of recent strikes on Ukraine's airforce:

Steve

[Carolus]

42 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Rob Lee also has some worthwhile videos from Avdiivka, but there is also this... Russian footage of recent strikes on Ukraine's airforce:

Steve

Very unfortunate airfield strikes.

Interesting that Russia managed to bring both an observational (long-range optics?) drone and a kamikaze ammunition near such an important Ukrainian location.

Definitely shows the need for more point defense emplacements and coverage.

[cesmonkey]

Rybar's description of the Avdiivka battle:
https://t.me/rybar/53139
 

Quote

️ Battle for Avdeevka :
the situation towards the end October 11, 2023

Near the Avdeevsky fortified area, Russian units continue to storm strong points. After the initial success of the Russian Armed Forces, the enemy regrouped and is now trying to contain the offensive.

On the northern flank, fighters of the 11th Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces, as a result of fierce battles, were able to completely occupy the most important strong point (the so-called waste heap ) at a commanding height. Its release will make it possible to control the approaches to the northern outskirts of Avdeevka.

There are also battles taking place near the northeastern outskirts of Berdychi . Russian motorized rifle units are trying to break through the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The enemy transferred anti-tank reserves to this area to strengthen the position.

At the same time, to the east, servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces managed to enter the village of Petrovskoye (Stepovoe) . According to preliminary data, fighting is taking place in the populated area itself, and there is no control over it yet.

️Now the Ukrainian command is trying to stabilize the front. Reinforcements from the 31st mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been deployed to the vicinity of Ocheretino , Novokalinovo and Berdychi . The cannonade does not subside, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are hitting the front line with all means.

Russian troops are also attacking the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the southern outskirts of Avdeevka. As a result of the assault from the Donetsk ring road, the Russian Armed Forces were able to occupy a section of the railway south of the Tsarskaya Okhota restaurant , which was turned into a stronghold of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The attack of the Russian Army near Avdeevka continues. The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is transferring reserves to carry out a counterattack, so now Russian fighters should prepare for this by consolidating themselves on occupied lines. This will save the lives of personnel while aviation and artillery destroy the fortified area in Avdievka, facilitating its cordon.

High resolution map

English version

 

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/10/12/20231012000402-50ccc568.jpg

[cesmonkey]

The Ukrainian Mashovets on the Avdiivka  battle:
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1303
 

Quote

Review

As of the evening of 10/11/2023, in addition to the Kupyansky direction, the enemy switched to active offensive actions in most areas of the Avdiivka defense region of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and in general in the Donetsk operational direction. In particular, in tactical directions:

- Krasnogorovka - Novokalinovo (114th separate motorized rifle brigade\omsbr 1st army corps\AK) - had no success;

- Krasnogorovka - Stepnoe (114th Omsbr of the 1st AK) - has promotion;

- Spartak - southern outskirts of Avdeevka (1st Omsbr of the 1st AK) - had no success;

- Vodyanoye - Severnoye (9th Omsbr 1st AK) - has promotion;

- Sands - Pervomaiskoye (9th Omsbr of the 1st AK) - has promotion;

- Aleksandrovka - Novomikhailovka (33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment/MSR, 20th Motorized Rifle Division/MSD) - had no success;

- Kamenka - the northern outskirts of Avdeevka (114th Omsbr of the 1st AK) - had no success;

- Krutaya Balka - eastern outskirts of Avdeevka (114th Omsbr of the 1st AK) - was not successful;

- Poprosnoe – Severnoye (1st Omsbr of the 1st AK) – was not successful;

- Staromikhailovka - Krasnogorovka (lower) (5th Omsbr of the 1st AK) - had no success;

- Aleksandrovka - Pobeda (255th Motorized Rifle Division, 20th Motorized Rifle Division) - had no success;

- Slavnoye - Novomikhailovka (39th Motorized Rifle Brigade, 68th AK) - has progress, I wrote about it yesterday;

- in the northern and central part of the village of Maryinka (5th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st AK and 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division) - had no success.

There are a few things worth noting about this.
- Obviously, the meaning of these enemy actions is to oust the Ukrainian Armed Forces units from the Avdeevsky defense region under the threat of encirclement.

- And also, in creating the prerequisites for similar actions in relation to the Ugledar bridgehead of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (this is evidenced by the persistent attacks of the enemy - both in the general direction of Maryinko - Kurakhovo, and the active build-up of offensive actions by the forces of the 68th AK in the center and northern section of this bridgehead ).

- Already from the first days of this operation, the enemy deployed the main forces of the 1st AK (so to speak, its “combat core”), as well as a significant part of the forces and means of the 8th Combined Arms Army (OvA), including its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Division.

– Further expansion of his efforts will clearly occur in those areas where he managed to achieve a certain result. That is, north and south of the city of Avdeevka (9th and 114th Omsbr), directions Vodyanoye - Severnoye and Krasnogorovka - Stepnoye.

- To provide flank support for these attacks, the enemy will obviously continue active offensive operations in the direction of Pervomaiskoye, Novokalinovo and Keramik.

- The enemy’s artillery is now very actively working in the area of the Avdeevsky coke plant and in the northern part of the city in general, and also carries out regular massive artillery attacks in the area of the village of Berdich, and this is quite eloquent evidence of his future intentions.

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Another turn of the screw by MuXk?

...Today it appears you can no longer search for a Twitter user by name on Nitter and call up their feed?

https://nitter.net/search?f=users&q=%40DefMon3

Can anyone confirm this? TIA

[Sekai]

5 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Belgium expects to use $2.4 billion in tax on frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belgium-expects-use-24-bln-tax-frozen-russian-assets-fund-ukraine-2023-10-11/

I'll believe it when I see it, Belgium has been nothing short of an embarrassment since the day this war started.

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, so here's something to consider about what you just posted.  Is it bad?  No, but it doesn't add anything to this discussion.  The Twitter guy fits into a type who is probably well meaning (some are just out for attention), but his audience (as he calls it) isn't our audience here.  Therefore, his Twitter post is not appropriate for this thread.  I will demonstrate:

The above poster stated this:

Therefore, as I have repeatedly said, in military analysis I am a novice, but one who has been "forced" to learn many new things out of respect for you, my audience.

I stopped reading when I got to this line.  I have no interest in spending time on something that is simply a regurgitation from someone who is an "expert" in order to get Followers and/or to be helpful in educating people who aren't very up on this sort of stuff.

Either way, the bulk of what he posted came from the most recent Perun video which, I'm guessing, many of us have already watched or have in their play list.  So if we want to know what Perun is saying, we listen to Perun (who I can not recommend highly enough).  Someone citing Perun and adding expert opinions/observations, on the other hand, would be interesting to see here.

OK, so now I'm going to sound like a snob, but I'm concerned that if I don't hand out some well meaning advice that thread regulars are going to start getting testy (and hitting Ignore on your posts).  So please take this as constructive and not dismissive advice...

In Uni (college for us Yanks) there are different levels of classes to attend within a given subject.  Nobody expects the advanced stuff to be taught to the entry level students, and the advanced students aren't interested in repeating the intro level material.  This thread stands out from many other discussions on the war because it is, for sure, in the advanced category.  We want to keep it that way because that is what makes it stand out from the rest.

This is a great place to learn about the war, but it might be best if you follow along for a little while before jumping in with contributions.  That way you will be more familiar with what this thread is about and the sorts of things which are viewed by participants as productive (more or less).  To return to the Uni analogy, it would be better for you to do your own homework outside of this thread instead of doing it from inside of it.

Hope that comes off sounding helpful as that is my intention.

Steve

At least the X guy had the decency to admit he is a novice.  His analysis is a bit of a mess.  The objectives he lists are really all over the map (literally and figuratively).

I think it has been termed “The Death of Expertise”.  Social media, and now AI, has lowered the cost of information to the point that one no longer needs to demonstrate proof of work.  The problem is that information is not knowledge.  The ability to take information, or as we have gone on about - negative information (things that should be seen but are not), and synthesize it into knowledge based understanding is not something one can do with a Twitter account.  It takes years of study to create the critical analysis frameworks and foundational understanding that allows one to take new information and understand it in context.

We see this “college boy, eh?” type of thinking in vulnerable sectors of society.  Those that were not afforded the opportunity to gain expertise can now appeal that condition.  Further expertise can be wrong - that should probably be the first rule of experts.  In fact an expert will know they are wrong before anyone else.  Being an expert is not about being right all the time, it is about understanding what we know, what we don’t know and why.

So we have people who are facing enormous uncertainty and are compelled to try and solve that.  They form information spheres they trust and then use that to try and understand better…to be more certain.  It is what we have been doing here since Day 1 - world went nuts, we seek certainty in community.  Problem is when a community is built on biases or skewed perceptions.  We have walked that precipice on more than one occasion on this very forum.

In the end, it is not about “shut up and take what I say as gospel”, in fact any community that is doing that is probably toxic.  It is about clear and objective analysis of facts, due diligence in self-monitoring and correction and proof of work in making analysis and synthesis happen.  Everyone and anyone may contribute to this community, but it must contribute.  Signal not noise.  Not for me to judge noise, the meritocracy of the community (and moderators) do that for us.

[Pete Wenman]

 

 

P

[akd]

Well, it’s 2023, and Russia is attacking with tank-riding infantry:

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by akd

[TheVulture]

With the Russian attacks on Avdiivka, I can imagine two main scenarios:

* Russia feels comfortable with their defensive situation around Tokmak so they can afford the forces for the attack

* Russia's position around Tokmak is precarious and this is an attempt to relieve pressure by either faking the idea they have sufficient reserves,  or  Hitler-esque belief in the decisive nature of offensive action to solve problems.

What are the key bits of evidence to look for in the coming days that might indicate one way or the other?

[Tux]

55 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

With the Russian attacks on Avdiivka, I can imagine two main scenarios:

* Russia feels comfortable with their defensive situation around Tokmak so they can afford the forces for the attack

* Russia's position around Tokmak is precarious and this is an attempt to relieve pressure by either faking the idea they have sufficient reserves,  or  Hitler-esque belief in the decisive nature of offensive action to solve problems.

I think there's a third one:

* Internal/domestic politics demands that Russia are seen to be making progress - the Army has therefore been instructed to attack and take a named settlement for Russian media to draw big red arrows around and then stick a flag in.

 

55 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

What are the key bits of evidence to look for in the coming days that might indicate one way or the other?

Love this question.  Imo it's a variety of things:

• Russian media/propaganda messaging:  Do they start showing maps with gains around Avdiivka as evidence that Russia has 'retaken the initiative'?  Do they simply stop talking about the 'Tokmak front' and focus on Avdiivka as if that's the new nexus of the war effort?  Both might suggest the offensive is a planned media distraction.
• Artillery and infantry employment at Avdiivka:  all else being equal I think evidence of truly heavy Russian artillery and infantry deployment on the offensive with no apparent reduction around Tokmak would suggest your first option.  Both resources are apparently in short supply overall so, if that's the case, we shouldn't expect Russia to be able to mass them at Avdiivka without seriously starving themselves elsewhere.
• Duration and/or escalation profile of the Avdiivka offensive:  If the offensive fizzles out after an intial spike in activity, or if it flares up in fits and starts over the coming days and weeks while Ukraine continue the grind towards Tokmak I think that would suggest the Russians are struggling to keep up the pretense or are not happy with the level of distraction they are forcing upon Ukraine.
• Diplomatic activity:  any changes in diplomatic tune could, as one example, be evidence that Russia are trying to snatch at a stronger bargaining position on the ground around Avdiivka before ringing the bell for ceasefire negotiations to start.

Those are the ones that leap to mind, anyway.  I'm very interested to know what other tea leaves people think we could look out for.

Edited October 12, 2023 by Tux
qualification

[hcrof]

I would not be surprised if RF logistics are being throttled enough near Tokmak that Russia cannot support more than X number of vehicles and guns, but overall they have supplies to spare. In that scenario they can be starved near Tokmak but also have enough for a reasonable push in the east. 

Having said that, it seems that the offensive in the east started with a bang but is rapidly running out of steam so my guess is that Putin wants results and politics is pushing the offensive more than military capacity. 

I am not sure Putin likes the idea of a forever war any more than the west does. Even with the incomplete information available to him he must be aware that the Russian army is getting weaker, not stronger, and he cannot sustain this level of conflict intensity forever. Especially against the whole collective west, which dwarfs Russia even if parts of it like the US decides to go all isolationist. 

[Lethaface]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ukraine's accounting for Russia's losses in the Avdiivka assault.  And look... a Terminator!  If this is correct it would be, what, the second one confirmed destroyed?  They are also officially stating that a Su-25 was downed, but still no visual confirmation as far as I know.

 

Possibly one less TOS-1 to worry about:

The Girkin Twitter account has a number of posts pertaining to Avdiivka that I haven't seen yet.  This one shows yet more MT-LB modifications.  Ersatz APC?

Rob Lee also has some worthwhile videos from Avdiivka, but there is also this... Russian footage of recent strikes on Ukraine's airforce:

Steve

I'm quite sure I saw that video of the Lancet strike on the Mig a coupe of weeks (or longer) ago. IIRC at the time there was the question whether it was a dummy plane or not.