How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, poesel said:

An article that explains why Russia has so many volunteers and why their death is not a (perceived) problem for the Russian society.

TL;DR: the volunteers are often poor, drunkards & violent and their death is a net social plus for their mothers/wives due to the relative high pay and the bonus the relatives get on their death. The money and the new state of 'veteran' mother/wive allows them to climb the social ladder.

Article in German.

https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/russlands-krieg-laeuft-auf-eine-soziale-saeuberung-der-gesellschaft-hinaus-ld.1758471

Thanks!  I've put that on my reading list.

The thing is all of this was true for last year and Russia ran out of volunteers when they desperately needed replacements, which triggered the first mass mobilization.  This year, despite the horrendous losses in the winter and since, we've not seen the same thing.  Something has changed in Russia's favor.  See previous post for speculation as to what.

Steve

[Kinophile]

Tatarigami has a pass at Avdiivka RUS losses. TLDR, minimum 45 vehicles destroyed, without yet counting the Southern flank attack losses. 

 

Now,  I'm Not Mil, or ex Mil, but that seems very like a large formation (almost a NATO brigade?) charging into its own annihilation. 

BTW,  another reason for Avdiivka as a selection might be that any ZSU counter-offensive would quickly hit the immediate suburbs of Donetsk and instantly stop. 

 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Kinophile

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Now,  I'm Not Mil, or ex Mil, but that seems very like a large formation (almost a NATO brigade?) charging into its own annihilation. 

Battalion.  Not Brigade.  Of course the loss of an entire Battalion is going to seriously impact its parent formation.

[danfrodo]

Above, question of why RU men are signing up to this war.  I am sure there's the usual reasons of adventure, patriotism, stupidity, but I wonder if it's just simply the money for most of them.  They are in a garbage economy w/o much chance of prospering and they are offered a big sack of money to go to Ukraine.  And they all think they won't be the ones dying.  And I bet they mostly think it'll be like a 6 month stint before it's over.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, my next question then is, what is driving that threshold of Russian volunteerism?  Putin knows he can pull 300-400k you dumb young men out of society and push them to go die in a useless war.  Why not 500k?  Why not 1M?  There is a reason there that make the risk too high...what is it?

I think the rate of replacement is more important than the total volume.  Meaning, Russia can sustain 200-300k (including people finishing their contracts) replacements spread out monthly over a year for many years, but might get into trouble if they try to do 200-300k all at once like they did last year.  The usual drip-drip-drip vs. faucet on full.

It seems the regime is very aware of this and that is why it put so much energy into getting volunteers even though what it needed, from a military standpoint, was a mobilization.  And not just to get them back to where they were, but to get them a dramatically larger sized force than Ukraine's.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

As to precision v mass - well we are back to corrosive warfare.  The theory of corrosive warfare is essentially rapid, precise attrition that surpasses an adversary's system resilience, and ability to adapt.  So it is not about killing 20 guys in a hole with precision...it is which 20 guys.  By hitting key nodes that comprise an operational system - C2, ISR, enablers, sustainment; the entire systems ability to hold up its own weight begins to fail.  This is different than front end attrition where we kill 20 guys until they run out of of guys.  In corrosive warfare we kill 20 of the right guys in the system chain.  We kill them faster than an opponent can deal with.

Now does the theory work?  Good question. It has in the past but this is a competitive space.  

I don't think it is working very well against Russia for a couple of reasons.  First, they have utterly crap logistics and command structures.  Whacking this or that node doesn't seem to be very effective because, well, it wasn't a very effective node to begin with.  It's like a badly run big corporation with too many middle management types.  Take out 1/3rd of middle management and productivity might actually go up.

Second, they have crap command and control to start with.  Bad coms, bad leaders, too few leaders, horrible command climate, etc.  Zapping an HQ might actually raise morale, not lower it.

Third, they still have large reserves of some types of equipment.  The quality continues to degrade with each loss, but the system still functions.  It's like someone without a cellphone but with an old land line.  Zap the landline and using field phones is still OK.  Zap that and two tin cans with string is still OK.  But hit someone used to linked digital communications and nope... they fall apart with a land line, not to mention field phones, and let's not even talk about cans with string.

In some ways it is simialr to the problems that the Western forces had fighting insurgencies.  PGMs still have a use in that they minimize collateral damage and ensure the target is desroyed, but can you PGM your way to victory?  No.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.threads.net/@maks_23_ua/post/CyV714kqt-R

 

Driving a TOS-1 is not a safe profession. I still find it hilarious the other Russian personnel will go within a thousand yards of one.  The crew gets to die lonely.

 

Quote

https://www.threads.net/@maks_23_ua/post/CyV0tWpq6T1

 

Claims Ukraine hit a Russian ammo train in Melitipol. Depending on how many drones and or GMLRS Ukraine wanted to throw at the repair crew it might really crimp the Russians if true.

Edited October 13, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.threads.net/@maks_23_ua/post/CyVeF5uLFp5

Ukraine is buying 60% of the world production of "Mavic" drones, - Prime Minister Shmyhal

 

Somebody, somewhere , in some NATO country needs to get a truly high volume production line built for a lightly militarized version of these things that can meet this demand before the Chinese decide to turn off the supply, or mess in with them in some way tht makes them less useful.

We are not doing a great job of understanding that the state of the world simply requires a vastly higher level of munitions production. And drones are munition just as surely as 155 shells.

[The_Capt]

53 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think the rate of replacement is more important than the total volume.  Meaning, Russia can sustain 200-300k (including people finishing their contracts) replacements spread out monthly over a year for many years, but might get into trouble if they try to do 200-300k all at once like they did last year.  The usual drip-drip-drip vs. faucet on full.

It seems the regime is very aware of this and that is why it put so much energy into getting volunteers even though what it needed, from a military standpoint, was a mobilization.  And not just to get them back to where they were, but to get them a dramatically larger sized force than Ukraine's.

I don't think it is working very well against Russia for a couple of reasons.  First, they have utterly crap logistics and command structures.  Whacking this or that node doesn't seem to be very effective because, well, it wasn't a very effective node to begin with.  It's like a badly run big corporation with too many middle management types.  Take out 1/3rd of middle management and productivity might actually go up.

Second, they have crap command and control to start with.  Bad coms, bad leaders, too few leaders, horrible command climate, etc.  Zapping an HQ might actually raise morale, not lower it.

Third, they still have large reserves of some types of equipment.  The quality continues to degrade with each loss, but the system still functions.  It's like someone without a cellphone but with an old land line.  Zap the landline and using field phones is still OK.  Zap that and two tin cans with string is still OK.  But hit someone used to linked digital communications and nope... they fall apart with a land line, not to mention field phones, and let's not even talk about cans with string.

In some ways it is simialr to the problems that the Western forces had fighting insurgencies.  PGMs still have a use in that they minimize collateral damage and ensure the target is desroyed, but can you PGM your way to victory?  No.

Steve

Disagree with that last part. Ukraine has already PGM'd its way to a victory.  Pushing the RA back to the point they can no longer conduct offensive operations is a massive victory.  In fact it PGM'd a victory no one thought even possible.  Reading the last RUSI reports and Russia is trying to copy Ukrainian precision indirect fires as a result of how well PGMs have worked out. (https://static.rusi.org/Stormbreak-Special-Report-web-final_0.pdf)  The question now is how much can current precision offer?  Can Russia come up with counters...they are working on it.  The pounding of the RA to a lower energy state and keeping them there is one for the history books alone.

My sense is that the UA needs to set conditions to switch this whole thing up for a game shift: manoeuvre.  The RA is so degraded (as you note) that any effective manoeuvre would break them.  Problem is, how does UA create conditions for manoeuvre?  Well, I think it is happening in front of us - nibble and bite until your opponent thins out somewhere enough to make a go of it.  That is a lot of frontage, and the UA can see pretty much all of it, so I expect there may be method to this madness yet.

Or alternatively, we have gone as far as current levels of precision and erosion can take things?  Or is manoeuvre essentially dead as we know it?  You may be correct, the RA may be already corroded to the point that all they can do is throw troops in holes, and mines in other holes - but it might be enough.  Ukraine would need to escalate to strategic corrosive warfare in order to break this, but that sadly remains off the table - might not for next major war. 

Or Ukraine needs to change the game. Question really is, "can they?"

Edited October 13, 2023 by The_Capt

[kimbosbread]

16 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Coincidentally, I just listened to Perun's take on aerial drones a few hours ago.  Well worth a listen, as always.  In fact, he was funnier than usual!

Steve

That was pretty interesting. One benefit on the unmanned side he doesn’t mention is the ensmallement opportunities. If you can figure out useful payloads for them (sensors, high yield explosives), the whole we can’t make enough of them for the larger platform argument goes out the window.

The capability to make small, relatively high-endurance drones has existed for at least 25 years (4” long, 100kph for 1 hour, tiny gas engine).

Quasi-related, given the distance to the South China Sea, should the US consider a building an expo-atmospheric bomber (that stays below 100km so no weaponization of space)? You could do some sort of boost-glide mechanism using a scaled down version of SpaceX’s re-useable rockets. Probably signficantly cheaper than our programs, if we got SpaceX to build it for us.

[Lethaface]

https://www.defensie.nl/actueel/nieuws/2023/10/13/nederland-doneert-extra-patriot-raketten-aan-oekraine

NL will (also) deliver more Patriot missiles for the winter. Fwiw at significant cost of own operational strength.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Disagree with that last part. Ukraine has already PGM'd its way to a victory.  Pushing the RA back to the point they can no longer conduct offensive operations is a massive victory.  In fact it PGM'd a victory no one thought even possible.  Reading the last RUSI reports and Russia is trying to copy Ukrainian precision indirect fires as a result of how well PGMs have worked out. (https://static.rusi.org/Stormbreak-Special-Report-web-final_0.pdf)  The question now is how much can current precision offer?  Can Russia come up with counters...they are working on it.  The pounding of the RA to a lower energy state and keeping them there is one for the history books alone.

My sense is that the UA needs to set conditions to switch this whole thing up for a game shift: manoeuvre.  The RA is so degraded (as you note) that any effective manoeuvre would break them.  Problem is, how does UA create conditions for manoeuvre?  Well, I think it is happening in front of us - nibble and bite until your opponent thins out somewhere enough to make a go of it.  That is a lot of frontage, and the UA can see pretty much all of it, so I expect there may be method to this madness yet.

Or alternatively, we have gone as far as current levels of precision and erosion can take things?  Or is manoeuvre essentially dead as we know it?  You may be correct, the RA may be already corroded to the point that all they can do is throw troops in holes, and mines in other holes - but it might be enough.  Ukraine would need to escalate to strategic corrosive warfare in order to break this, but that sadly remains off the table - might not for next major war. 

Or Ukraine needs to change the game. Question really is, "can they?"

The issue is the next layer of deep strike that the Ukrainians have not been permitted to do. If the Kerch bridge was in the water, and the weakest links in the rail system in the parts of Russia immediately surrounding Ukraine were under relentless missile attack this thing would be in a completely different place. Jake Sullivan has decide he would rather the Ukrainians lose than that take that risk. Given his brilliant piece about the state of the Mideast last week, i think he needs to go.

[Letter from Prague]

That is a good point. If Russia moves all the vulnerable stuff beyond border then Ukrainians PGMs are limited to Neptune and repurposed S-200.

[Haiduk]

Yesterday UKR forces destroyed railroad overpass between Donetsk and Horlivka. Even more correctly between Yasynuvata, settlement NE from Donetsk and Horlivka. Yasynuvata is important defense node of DPR forces, located close to Avdiivka SE outskirt and "promka" - large industrial zone, became famous since 2016. This strike will complicate logistics of Russians during Avdiivka battle.

On the video you can see remains of tank under collapsed bridge. Some people claim also Z-STS "Akhmat" armored car and Msta-B howitzer can be seen destroyed under the bridge,but I see only the tank

 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russian milblogger "13th" yesterday sharply criticized all statements that Russian troops captured Avdiivka coke plant waste heap (in UKR and RUS these artifiacal industrial hills name "terrikon") on northern outskirt of the city. Then at the evening he posted a message that waste heap was taken at 18-00 of Moscow time. But today he posted that UKR forces recaptured waste heap in fierce counter-attack. 

UKR unofficial sources didn't report about any losses of such strategical position (or just decided do not demoralize with such news), so more likely for Russians this was suitable reason to justify their wrong claims - "we captured it, but alas couldn't hold". As it has happened more than once, like with "recapturing" of Staromajorske or Robotyne %)

  

Edited October 13, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russian or DPR milblogger

Our guys suffer losses, there is a catastrophical lack of surgeons in Horlivka and Donetsk

Edited October 13, 2023 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Battalion.  Not Brigade.  Of course the loss of an entire Battalion is going to seriously impact its parent formation.

Initial reports were of several battalions, no? 

[Haiduk]

9 hours ago, Lethaface said:

In that case strange why they blur the lower side of the foto , or was it Ukr asset that made the foto?.

Authorities of Crimea warned people if they upload any video of strikes, AD work etc, they could be procecuted  or at least have a long talks with FSB. But many people anyway want likes and followers (and many of them also wait Ukraine), so they haste to upload something hot, sometime just blurring some places in order "nobody can geolocate" %)   

Edited October 13, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Initial reports were of several battalions, no? 

I suppose this was incorrect expression - our GS press-service often makes stupid mistakes as for competent military structure. Today, for example they claimed "Su-25 FIGHTER" was shot down, though Su-25 is assault aircraft.  

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I suppose this was incorrect expression - our GS press-service often makes stupid mistakes as for competent military structure. Today, for example they claimed "Su-25 FIGHTER" was shot down, though Su-25 is assault aircraft.  

Complete military incompetence from reporters and spokespeople is a world wide problem. Half of them can't tell the difference between a sniper rifle and a PZH-2000 SPG.

[Haiduk]

9 hours ago, hcrof said:

so it seems something was attacked? A warship and a tug damaged? 

 

I can't understand why SBU issued this unverified info. Even though there were some attacks, they likely didn't reach own goals. No evidences that any ship was damaged. 

Here is today's "damaged" ship, after incident, passed as missile corvette "Buyan" - indeed patrol ship pr.22160 "Vasiliy Bykov"-class

And here is "blown by mine" two days ago patrol ship of the same pr.22160 "Pavel Derzhavin", reportedly yesterday photo. No damages are visible.

 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/missile-defense-weapons/boeingsaab-track-glsdb-fielding-ukraine

A Boeing/Saab team is on track to deliver the first Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) and a new launcher to the Ukrainian military, a company official said on Oct. 9. “We’re on track to deliver in accordance with the government time line,” Jim Leary, a senior director of business...

 

Unhelpfully they don'y make clear what on track means, but in quantity these would be very useful.

Quote

 

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/10/12/boeing-ramjet-artillery-shell/?expand_article=1

A Boeing and Nammo team test-fired a Ramjet 155 munition from a 58-caliber Extended Range Cannon Artillery (ERCA), which they said set a record for longest indirect fire test of a ramjet-powered artillery projectile.

 

For the next war., these 155 ramjet boosted shells can shoot most of the way across the Taiwan straight. They are also talking about both GPS, and other guidance. It be rather useful if they could hit moving ships. A couple 155 rounds would turn a loaded roll on roll off transport ship into flaming wreck.

Edited October 13, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

Video of successfull attack of assault group of 128th mountain-assault brigade on Russian strongpoint in 3 km N from Kopani, which allowed to take this position about 2-3 days ago.

The tank shoots out trenches, forcing Russian infantry to hide and later run away when UKR assault squad arrived on BMP. 

As you can see both UKR and RUS forces had about squad of troops. But Russians had only a squad for enough large trench system

 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Haiduk

[Harmon Rabb]

23 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

This would be a glorious opportunity for American pick up truck manufacturers, who with the end of ZIRP are sitting on lots of inventory they can’t move. They could get probably get uncle Sam to comp them a bit too. Not as good as a Hilux/LC70, but better than nothing. Also American-size means lots of room for body armor and cupholders for energy drinks.

Just quoting this because I second that this would be a great idea.

Heck, it may even boost sales of pick up trucks in North America for the companies involved. Think about it, pictures of rugged guys wearing military uniforms using these vehicles while defending their country,would go hand in hand with the masculine image that the manufacturers of these vehicles are already going for when advertising on TV. 

Remember that photo of the Ford F-350 towing that M777 from last Summer? After seeing that I wanted to buy a Ford.

 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Video of successfull attack of assault group of 128th mountain-assault brigade on Russian strongpoint in 3 km NE from Kopani, which allowed to take this position about 2-3 days ago.

The tank shoots out trenches, forcing Russian infantry to hide and later run away when UKR assault squad arrived on BMP. 

As you can see both UKR and RUS forces had about squad of troops. But Russians had only a squad for enough large trench system

 

No obstacle or entrenchment matters without the troops to man it.

[The_Capt]

37 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Initial reports were of several battalions, no? 

It probably was, but the vehicle loss count is at battalion level (eg 45 or whatever).  A formation has around 300 F and A1 ech vehicles.pm give or take.  Mauled the hell outta whatever went through there but it wasn’t the loss of an entire brigade.