How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Carolus]

There is a rumor going around on the internet (usual caveats apply) that Russian patrol boat "Pavel Derzhavin" was damaged by an explosion while at harbour in Sevastopol. Unknown cause, and no footage yet. 

But I would really like to have another crossed out boat on the Black Sea Fleet rooster.

[cesmonkey]

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3553644/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

Quote

The capabilities in this package, valued at up to $200 million, include:

1.           AIM-9M missiles for air defense; 
2.           Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (c-UAS) equipment;
3.           Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
4.           155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
5.           Precision aerial munitions;
6.           Electronic warfare equipment;
7.           Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
8.           AT-4 anti-armor systems;
9.           Small arms and more than 16 million rounds of small arms ammunition;
10.        Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing; and
11.        Spare parts, training munitions, maintenance, and other field equipment.

 

[Astrophel]

2 hours ago, Teufel said:

This is a very interesting point! And again, I can’t offer too much details about specific things but let’s keep it on general terms. Keeping the equipment running goes according to the same principle for both sides. Damaged and recovered equipment which in Western military operations would never see action again goes back into action in Ukraine. Damaged and structurally compromised equipment is better than no equipment. That tank or IFV that saved the crew first time around may not or certainly will not save the crew next time but it’s going back in.

If the armor on the left hand side is compromised after hit with RPG it’s not disqualified from action in Ukraine. Run a mine and destroy the mine protection, it’s either replaced or disqualified in NATO conflict. In Ukraine, it’s welded up with industrial grade steel and resembling bucket from Home Depot on the damaged side, it’s going back in! Real quote “left side is compromised? Does that mean if we get hit on the right hand side we will survive? Maybe? Ok, if maybe it’s going back in!”

Out of necessity, like fighting without body armor, as long as your AK-platform fires you got a chance!

Same for Russians. I wish we could have these “health bars” we see in video games projecting on top of equipment. I’d be hard pressed to find, primarily Russian, equipment that has more than 50-70% vitality left. If it was piece of junk before, imagine what it is after no or little maintenance or worse being hit by western equipment?

But it still rolls and it maybe fires. The increase in “suicide tanks” last month or so is for this exact reason. Turret probably damaged beyond functional repair but tracks work. Load it with shells, mines, anything that explodes and send it with brick on gas pedal towards Ukrainians. Better value than pulling something they can’t repair anyway back home in Russia. This goes back into previous post, long term the Russians are screwed. Only if West assumes that now invisible health bar glows healthy green than critically wounded red are the Russians going to stand a chance and we will come to regret it.

On the morale side, can only speculate but knowing little bit of the inner workings of Eastern Europe military. Combination of indoctrinations (read brainwashing), hard drugs, in group and third party punishments, and primarily at this point - apathy. Man that looses fear in combat fights without anything to lose, including his life. Fear suggests you have something to live for, if nothing else for sole purpose of survival. Being under these conditions, probably injured many of them, left with only punishment if you speak up, and far from any chance of getting out of this hell. They become hollow shells of their own humanity, like walking dead. You would never treat soldiers or put them through circumstances Russians do in the West. It’s unheard of and thus we have hard time comprehending it.

Edit: “third party punishments” as in your family members back home threatened to be or actually harmed by your own actions at the front. Surrender and you will survive but rest assured your family will not.

Very insightful.  The puzzle we need to solve is why ordinary russians keep on fighting and sacrificing in these circumstances.  Victory will be achieved when we conquer hearts and minds.

[Letter from Prague]

39 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

If you know "stuff" one does not go around saying "I know stuff but can't tell you"...you just don't say anything.  Simply saying you have access in a unsecure open forum is risky.

Could be window dressing, or maybe the young fella just doesn't know better.

I have certainly said "I know but can't tell" at work at time I should have said "I don't know". Some of us are just dumb, you know.

I never put anything on War Thunder forums though.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting.  I don't think I've seen an airburst FPV before, but there's obviously nothing terribly difficult (on the scale of things) to make this possible.  However, it seems the explosive is a standard type, not shaped, as the effect is evenly dispersed.

Steve

Some further thoughts on the state of Ukrainian drone development. The airfield attack a month or so ago that inspired the Russians to turn all of their strategic bombers in to dumps for worn out tires also used an apparently effective image recognition top attack. Those drones very clearly were able to recognize the image of the plane and detonate directly over them. the working assumption though has been that the target image was preloaded, and it would have been more or less impossible to adjust it in real time. The clip we have just seen though, is a randomly clumped up infantry squad, hiding behind a randomly pre-wrecked armored vehicle. This implies the Ukrainians can now set/adjust/pass thru the targeting information for a level flight top attack in real time. one very interesting question is did the ydo this with image recognition or GPS coordinates. It is an impressive development regardless, if they can do it at scale. But if they can do real time image pass thru they may be making real progress towards a true drone  swarm, where you pick a one kilometer grid square and tell ten, or twenty, or a hundred drones that you would like everything hostile in it too die.

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I have certainly said "I know but can't tell" at work at time I should have said "I don't know". Some of us are just dumb, you know.

I never put anything on War Thunder forums though.

I am willing to bet half the guys on this forum have, or had clearances.  Let's just all agree to not go there in here.

[dan/california]

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

On 10/9/2023 at 12:50 PM, Vanir Ausf B said:

Range is a problem. Most loitering munitions have maybe 30-40 minutes of endurance tops, so most of your loiter time is spent traveling to the target area. If nothing's there you just crash. Also, EW becomes more of a problem the further you fly.

On the other hand, technology marches forward.

 

[Lethaface]

47 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

I guess such point defense systems work great against Shaheds/drones which could save up AA missiles for anti-missile defense and or free up more mobile systems to move closer to the front. I wonder how many systems can be bought for the $80m but I guess a decent number with 2 digits. 
Let's hope they can be on duty at the time that the expected attacks on energy/heating infrastructure begin.

[Carolus]

4 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

I guess such point defense systems work great against Shaheds/drones which could save up AA missiles for anti-missile defense and or free up more mobile systems to move closer to the front. I wonder how many systems can be bought for the $80m but I guess a decent number with 2 digits. 
Let's hope they can be on duty at the time that the expected attacks on energy/heating infrastructure begin.

I love that these seem to be mounted on standardised truck pallets.

To put on a different melody than my usual whining and hand-wringing: It's stuff like this that shows the kind of ingenuity we need. 

Swarms of cheap drones terrorising the countryside? Go for AA cannons, not expensive SAM missiles. Need an easy and cheap way to transport? Just build it to ISO standard. Combine this simplicity and practicality with the edge we have in  tech like radar - a field where the West shows it is even still going strong on an old-ish platform like the Gepard, and you have a really nice package. I hope Zelensky orders 200.  

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, frustrating for sure.  We all remember the epic "Russia has 10,000 tanks!" nonsense that was so often repeated at the start of this war.

I think it is rather pointless to talk about strategic losses for either side as it really doesn't matter.  What matters is what each force still has to commit and how well things go when it does.  On that count, I'd say Ukraine has the upper hand now and for the near future.  Russia's forces are degrading in quality, Ukraine's are at least staying stable.  Russia's ability to conduct offensive actions is just about zero, Ukraine's is getting better.  This is important because Russia's stated goals require offensive action.

Steve

Since we can't have incontrovertible data, then we can only go by the results we see, which indicate quite clearly that Russia can't take meaningful amounts of territory from Ukraine.  (We haven't yet confirmed the converse is true -- not sure I can endorse that Ukraine is 'getting better' at attacking tbh).

...The only way Tankies can rationalize this demonstrated reality away is to claim, on no evidence at all, that:  Since Russia launched the SMO to denazify/reclaim wayward provinces to the Union State, its forces are exercising great restraint to minimise damage and rebuilding after joyous reunion. At some opportunity cost to themselves, perhaps, but grinder has been working hard and Banderonazis are now fast running out of conscripts, while effeminate NATO bourgeoisie is already getting bored. Ergo, time is on side of patient, chess playing 3.5x bigger Russian Bear. QED.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/10/11/us-intensifies-push-use-moscows-300-billion-war-chest-kyiv/

U.S. intensifies push to use Moscow’s $300 billion war chest for Kyiv

Considerable amounts of Kremlin funds are frozen in Western nations, and the Biden administration is increasingly interested in using them to benefit Ukraine

 

Making Moscow pay for the war it started would be good.

 

[cesmonkey]

Ukraine offered this summary of new aid:

https://t.me/operativnoZSU/118597
 

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"As much as needed" - the allies announced as long as they will support Ukraine

Ukraine has expanded cooperation programs with partner countries, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Rustem Umyerov said after "Ramstein". According to the results of the 16th meeting of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine (UDCG) allies in Brussels, we can report on some of the agreements reached. Here is an incomplete list of actions of partner countries to support Ukraine:

USA: 200 million dollars; the new aid package will include ammunition for air defense, artillery ammunition and missiles, strengthening of aviation armament, anti-tank weapons.

Great Britain: 115 million euros – a complete aid package to finance demining and equipment maintenance.

Denmark: F-16 transfer in early 2024.

Finland: a new aid package of 95 million euros.

Canada: $25 million for warm uniforms for the military and preparation for the winter campaign.

Belgium: will train F-16 pilots and mission planners, two Belgian companies (Sabena Engineering and Patria Bec) will provide essential technical support to the F-16 fleet. Belgium will once again receive a detachment of Ukrainian technical specialists for training. From 2025, Belgium will provide Ukraine with F-16 fighters

Norway: $18.5 million for demining.

Spain: will provide additional air defense systems, help with warm clothing for soldiers and generators to prepare for winter, and allocate 1.5 million euros for humanitarian demining.

Germany: strengthening the Ukrainian system with additional missiles, as well as tanks.

Bulgaria: a memorandum of intent was signed between the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Bulgaria. The memorandum defines, but does not limit, the main areas of further cooperation between the countries in the field of defense. Among other things, it includes cooperation in the areas of cyber security, strategic communications, as well as the provision of material and technical assistance. Bulgaria will help with language courses for F-16 pilots.

Lithuania: 2 NASAMS anti-aircraft missile systems, 155 mm artillery ammunition, and for the winter campaign – electric generators, army camping beds and warm uniforms.

 

[Haiduk]

10 hours ago, Rokko said:

https://militaryland.net/news/the-situation-in-magura-brigade-is-far-from-perfect/

This article claims, the 47th Mech is basically a spent force and has to resort to sending specialists into assaults.

 

In our UKR twitter soldiers of "old" brigades just laughed at these statements of 47th specialists. Maybe this is not good to send ATGM operator as infantrumen to clear next tree-line, but what to do if you have a lack of personnel? Both UKR and RUS units, no matter is this VDV, old crack brigade, volunteer unit, mobik regiment or territorial units - all have HUGE lack of "line infantry" despite continuous mobilization. Russia monthly rise 20-22000 of personnel as contractors. I don't know number of mobilized in Ukraine by month, but this also not less several southands per month. And anyway this not enough to fill staffing table. 

So, "veterans" laughed at this and told, this is usual practice for all brigades in much or less degrees, just conditions of war forced us to act by a rule of US Marines, where each marine in first order is rifleman, anf only then has own speciality.

[Teufel]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

OK mate, so while I greatly enjoy your commentary, and (like Martin Q. Blank and his cat) also respect your privacy, by your own account you are a (former/current) volunteer medic (in Ukraine?), seemingly of Eastern European origin.

But (duly accounting for 'lost in translation'), you're asking us to 'take your word for it' (cuz you can't share your sources or you'd go to Federal prison or sumfink?) regarding some high level assertions relating to US/Western vs. Russian production capacity.

Sure, we rando gamer geeks can all express our own opinions here (within reason), and even occasionally float BS we heard in a bar  (Spetsnaz on the tundra, anyone?).

...But it's probably best not to pretend to an authority, still less classified insider 'Red Pill' knowledge you don't actually have.

Unless you really *do*, of course. But then you'd have to kill us (In my particular case it's easy, poison my San Mig). 

As we are already in this and outing, to be fair and honest, and not so much to defend my own post. But to clarify, I have not set foot in Ukraine, nor have I seen live action as combat medic. The story is slightly different, we have had wars on European soil prior Ukraine, not nearly publicized and it was decades ago. Heard it be labeled “conflicts” rather than war but frankly can call it whatever you want. Makes no difference. The “Red Cross” reference has nothing to do with the actual humanitarian aid organization nor combat medic. There are Red Crosses in other national symbols, such as flags and no not the one of England in this case.

Due to above said conflict and ethnical background, by chance and luck more than anything else, was given care and later refugee status, citizenship in Western European country. Unable to return “home” as it doesn’t exist anymore. I have been fortunate to travel through my professional career but finally settled back in this new home. Working for an American owned arms manufacturer in said European country.

I don’t think it will be necessary but Steve or The_Capt can easily verify any of these claims by for example professional platforms. My email used to register to this site contains reference to my actual name. By all means gents, have at it, company is not listed on the platform but this city only has one arms manufacturer operating. So adding the last clues won’t be very difficult. If you want proof and verification that is.

We could get more cozy you and I if want to do that yourself but again I trust it won’t be necessary. You’ll have to take my word for it.

Edited October 11, 2023 by Teufel

[Haiduk]

5 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Hey Ukrainians, how tasty are the products from this company?

 

Emmm... First time I hear about them %) But maybe because this is company from Dnipro and their production wasn't represented in Kyiv. All what I can say UKR craft beer is really good. About wines... Some intersting craft wineries have appeared, but quality of wine of usual "industrial" wineries, existing from Soviet times is avarage (but enough suitable for usual daily drinking with evening series )  with some exceptions to both signs - from "pigwash" to "amazing!"  

Edited October 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

I love that these seem to be mounted on standardised truck pallets.

To put on a different melody than my usual whining and hand-wringing: It's stuff like this that shows the kind of ingenuity we need. 

Swarms of cheap drones terrorising the countryside? Go for AA cannons, not expensive SAM missiles. Need an easy and cheap way to transport? Just build it to ISO standard. Combine this simplicity and practicality with the edge we have in  tech like radar - a field where the West shows it is even still going strong on an old-ish platform like the Gepard, and you have a really nice package. I hope Zelensky orders 200.  

I say, the Scotch stands by you, fellow hand-wringer!

****

As a squad-level antidrone alternative to AA cannon airburst shells, how about resurrecting shoulder-fired recoilless rifles and cannister/flechette rounds?  Like the 90mm M67.

The Antipersonnel (Canister) Cartridge M590 (XM590E1)... consists of an aluminum cartridge case crimped to an aluminum canister.

The canister consists of a thin-walled, deep-drawn, aluminum body that contains a payload of 2,400 eight-grain (0.5 g), low-drag, fin-stabilized, steel-wire flechettes.

When the canister leaves the muzzle, the pressure ruptures the canister along inscribed score marks to release the flechettes, which disperse in a cone angle of approximately 8 degrees.

Cartridge weight: 6.79 lb (3.08 kg)

Projectile weight: 3.97 lb (1.8 kg)

Maximum effective range: 328 yd (300 m)

300m seems about right to whack a quadcopter, and some tweaking might extend the range.

This also sounds like something the Ukes could fabricate themselves.

There's also the smaller FV442 flechette round for the 84mm Carl Gustav RR, already in UA service, although effective range seems to be only 100m.

An American soldier interviewed about how the round killed 25 Afghans referred to the rounds as "the meat grinder". 

(I think flechettes were also banned by some pantywaist treaty or other, but we don't go in for that kind of whinging here! Anyway, one could always go back to cannister balls.

  https://www.thelocal.se/20110306/32424).

PULL!!!!!!

Edited October 11, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Haiduk]

It's claimed a work of Leopard at Russian tank on Zaporizhzhia front

 

Edited October 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[LongLeftFlank]

17 minutes ago, Teufel said:

As we are already in this and outing, to be fair and honest, and not so much to defend my own post. But to clarify, I have not set foot in Ukraine, nor have I seen live action as combat medic. The story is slightly different, we have had wars on European soil prior Ukraine, not nearly publicized and it was decades ago. Heard it be labeled “conflicts” rather than war but frankly can call it whatever you want. Makes no difference. The “Red Cross” reference has nothing to do with the actual humanitarian aid organization nor combat medic. There are Red Crosses in other national symbols, such as flags and no not the one of England in this case.

Due to above said conflict and ethnical background, by chance and luck more than anything else, was given care and later refugee status, citizenship in Western European country. Unable to return “home” as it doesn’t exist anymore. I have been fortunate to travel through my professional career but finally settled back in this new home. Working for an American owned arms manufacturer in said European country.

I don’t think it will be necessary but Steve or The_Capt can easily verify any of these claims by for example professional platforms. My email used to register to this site contains reference to my actual name. By all means gents, have at it, company is not listed on the platform but this city only has one arms manufacturer operating. So adding the last clues won’t be very difficult. If you want proof and verification that is.

We could get more cozy you and I if want to do that yourself but again I trust it won’t be necessary. You’ll have to take my word for it.

Nope, further inquiries are unnecessary intrusions, cheers mate. Carry on!

[Teufel]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

After that last US leak on Reddit I would like to say that professionals know better, but there we go.

If you know "stuff" one does not go around saying "I know stuff but can't tell you"...you just don't say anything.  Simply saying you have access in a unsecure open forum is risky.

Could be window dressing, or maybe the young fella just doesn't know better.

Have many poor traits, but this old fellow, by any standard senior fellow, doesn’t know any better. It wasn’t an attempt to window dress or impress, it has nothing to do with convincing someone about facts. But you are right, I’ve caused enough damage today through poor wording at best. Let’s leave it that, no further comments. It’s been a good run, but you are right, best correct that post and bow out.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-bulwark-podcast/id1447684472?i=1000630998838

 

Contrary to its title most of this podcast is about Jake Sullivan and with the author of this article.

 

Quote

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/16/trial-by-combat

If want to understand why we have have never quite given Ukraine enough to win, this is the article. I was struck by the fact that the National Security Adviser should be required to be a military veteran. You have to have some understanding that doing something right now is frequently better than doing something perfect next week. Sullivan seems a little weak on that.

Edited October 11, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

Situation around Avdiivka

UKR TGs wrote today Russians continued hevay bombardments of the city and our posiotions with artillery and aviation, but amout of artilelry/MLRS fire is less than day ago. About 10 airstrikes. Russian asaults today also not so intencive and mass as yesterday. If yesterday Russians operated mostly with company-sized units, that today are mostly platoon-sized. UKR TG source said we have also many damaged and destroyed vehicles because of massive artilery fire, airstrikes and drone atatcks.

Russians from the south try to breakthrough from Vodiane to Lastochkyne to cut off a road to Avdiivka. Despite they could yesterday to seize several our positions they couldn'r reach own objectives and lost many armor and infantry there. This is reflected on the map above.

On the northern flank map of Poulet Volant has some inaccuracy - in area of height 230 (waste heap of coke plant) Russians had advanced much closer to this artifical hill than on the map of French OSINTer. 

Just example of the scale of yesterday Russian assault groups

 

Some videos of yesterday Russian armor hits

Video of 116th TDF brigade of Poltava oblast - northern flank, west from Krasnohorivka. Russian tank with "tankodesantniki" has blown up by mine

Russian drone observes destroyed armor of 114th motor-rifle brigade of DPR and their infantry

Javelin of 53rd mech.brigade hit Russian armor (southern flank)

Continuing of this episode - two Russian BMPs damged in tree-line, third disembarked troops and had time to flee as HE and DPCIM artillery shell impact near infantry

Likely continuing - simalar to the same location - Russians inspired by Hamas attack, decided to breakthrough on two bykes, but... Logo of 53rd mech.brigade

 

Edited October 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

44 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Situation around Avdiivka

UKR TGs wrote today Russians continued hevay bombardments of the city and our posiotions with artillery and aviation, but amout of artilelry/MLRS fire is less than day ago. About 10 airstrikes. Russian asaults today also not so intencive and mass as yesterday. If yesterday Russians operated mostly with company-sized units, that today are mostly platoon-sized. UKR TG source said we have also many damaged and destroyed vehicles because of massive artilery fire, airstrikes and drone atatcks.

Russians from the south try to breakthrough from Vodiane to Lastochkyne to cut off a road to Avdiivka. Despite they could yesterday to seize several our positions they couldn'r reach own objectives and lost many armor and infantry there. This is reflected on the map above.

On the northern flank map of Poulet Volant has some inaccuracy - in area of height 230 (waste heap of coke plant) Russians had advanced much closer to this artifical hill than on the map of French OSINTer. 

Just example of the scale of yesterday Russian assault groups

 

Some videos of yesterday Russian armor hits

Video of 116th TDF brigade of Poltava oblast - northern flank, west from Krasnohorivka. Russian tank with "tankodesantniki" has blown up by mine

Russian drone observes destroyed armor of 114th motor-rifle brigade of DPR and their infantry

Javelin of 53rd mech.brigade hit Russian armor (southern flank)

Continuing of this episode - two Russian BMPs damged in tree-line, third disembarked troops and had time to flee as HE and DPCIM artillery shell impact near infantry

Likely continuing - simalar to the same location - Russians inspired by Hamas attack, decided to breakthrough on two bykes, but... Logo of 53rd mech.brigade

 

It must really be good for troops morale to fight past five or ten blown up wrecks from their own sides previous attempts. It makes it really clear that this a long road to nowhere, and you get to pay by the inch. Of course Russian morale is becoming one of the worlds great mysteries...

[Elmar Bijlsma]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

It's claimed a work of Leopard at Russian tank on Zaporizhzhia front

Leopard 1 though, not a 2 as claimed.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Leopard 1 though, not a 2 as claimed.

Even better!  If this tank is at the front, and not in the rear with a faked kill, this marks the first time we've seen one in combat.  At least as far as I know.

Steve