How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Hapless said:

One way to look at it is to consider what the Russians get out of the Black Sea Fleet:

• Roving air defence/radar pickets that are much harder to track down than land-based assets.
• Strike capability with a much easier avenue of attack on Ukrainian grain exports- whether at sea or in port. As we've seen recently with Poland, forcing Ukraine to seek other means of distributing it's grain can create political friction within supporting international structures.
• Logistics back-up for the Kerch Bridge.
• A fleet-in-being: because naval forces can move faster and with less restrictions than land-based forces, Ukraine constantly needs to worry about what the BSF might do and where it might be today. That uses up assets and bandwidth that Ukraine could be using elsewhere, as well as impinging on Ukraine's freedom of action.

Remove the Black Sea Fleet and Ukraine should have an easier time striking Russian logistics infrastructure in Crimea (only having to deal with comparatitvely predictable land based air defence (which they've been striking)), which should significantly degrade Russian forces in the south and lube up the counter-offensive.

That's on top the psychological benefits- we all saw the reaction when Ukraine sank Moskva. That wasn't only an important boost for Ukraine, but demonstrated Ukrainian abilities and resolve to the world.

Stuff like that.

Excellent reply - better than some staff college students I know.  I would add that is also puts additional strain on the entire Russian military enterprise as they now have to worry about replacing what they have lost (they still have eyes on the bigger global game). 

And last but not least, it may give a level of freedom of manoeuvre for Ukrainian forces on the sea.  Even modest raiding and SOF capabilities could drive the RA nuts and pushing their naval capabilities back is nothing but good news.  My personal hope would be an amphib operation but I do not think that is under the tree for this year.

Back to a central thesis, this creates Ukrainian options while taking options away from Russia…and that is how wars are won.

[FancyCat]

Quote

1/ NEW: Among severely wounded in Ukrainian attack on Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol — Col. Gen. Alexander Romanchuk and Lt. Gen. Oleg Tsekov, Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov tells @VOAnews. He confirms at least 9 dead and 16 injured among RUS military personnel.

2/ Romanchuk is in charge of Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia where the main thrust of Ukraine’s counteroffensive is occurring. This suggests that it wasn’t just a strike on the Black Sea Fleet HQ, but timed to target key senior leaders during a meeting.

 

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

To hit the right part of the right building during a meeting of the command staff for an entire section of the front implies that Ukraine is just living comfortably in the Russian comms system somewhere. I mean reading their everything in real time.

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

The thing that cracks me up about the Russians is how much effort it takes for them to get beyond their hubris and/or stupidity.  They know Ukraine is gunning for their HQs.  They know Storm Shadow can hit pretty much anything with a low chance of being intercepted.  They know everybody in the world has the address of the Black Sea Fleet HQ.  So why are they still concentrating flag officers in the BSF HQ as if none of what I just said is true?  At a minimum they should be in the bomb proof bunkers under the building, better still if they operate out of mobile command centers or, at lest, several that they rotate around to at random intervals.

Hey Russian military... you just be you.  You got this!

Steve

[Bearstronaut]

27 minutes ago, dan/california said:

To hit the right part of the right building during a meeting of the command staff for an entire section of the front implies that Ukraine is just living comfortably in the Russian comms system somewhere. I mean reading their everything in real time.

As much as it pains me to give my HUMINT brethren any credit it’s also pretty likely that there are more than a few residents of Sevastopol that know/hear things and hate the Russian occupier.

[Fenris]

Looking to the board's hive mind for insights re cluster ammo...

Any way to change the spread on the cluster rounds - seems they spread a bit too wide most times or do the bomblets have enough shrapnel to cover the area inside the ring?  Is the wide spread because they were designed to be fired en masse rather than quite accurate, single tube like we're seeing now?

[kimbosbread]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

On what I want to pay attantion - it's enough high level of survavibility of infantry under fire. Looks like body armor gives enough chances to survive and get mostly light injuries from close grenades or HEAT charges explosions. To take out a soldier you should to hit it with light explosive directly or at least in a step near his legs 

The future anti-personnel drones will not have to go after center of mass; go after extremities instead. A continuous-rod-warhead (similar to a sidewinder) would be boss at taking off a forearm or lower leg. Or maybe a dual mode warhead: Thermobaric in enclosed places, shaped charge with shrapnel otherwise. Or something like a storm shadow, where you a blow a hole in a soldier’s grundle and then blow up inside the abdominal cavity. Honestly the variety of killing possibilities will rival the cartoon Metalocaplyse.

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

To hit the right part of the right building during a meeting of the command staff for an entire section of the front implies that Ukraine is just living comfortably in the Russian comms system somewhere. I mean reading their everything in real time.

Not just Ukraine listening to all the traffic. I can’t believe they would have a big meeting in such a prominent target. It’s on the level of all the Wagner brass being on the same plane.

2 hours ago, Fenris said:

Any way to change the spread on the cluster rounds - seems they spread a bit too wide most times or do the bomblets have enough shrapnel to cover the area inside the ring?  Is the wide spread because they were designed to be fired en masse rather than quite accurate, single tube like we're seeing now?

Interesting problem for autonomous, smart munitions that don’t communicate… how do you get the desired distribution? If you have enough submunitions, they can basically choose a random point in circle (around the target), and you’ll get a uniform distribution. Or if the submunitions can choose targets, then a random target gives you a uniform distribution, but across valid targets. Or some sort of skewed distribution where some types of targets are higher ranked, so those might get 3-4 bomblets vs a lowly infantryman.

[dan/california]

16 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Not just Ukraine listening to all the traffic. I can’t believe they would have a big meeting in such a prominent target. It’s on the level of all the Wagner brass being on the same plane.

Well, in many ways Prig was smarter than most of them. Yet they were all on the same plane.

[dan/california]

Quote

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-22-2023

Several unnamed people familiar with ongoing deliberations on ATACMS also told the Washington Post that the Biden administration plans to provide Ukraine with a version of ATACMS armed with cluster bomblets rather than a single (unitary) warhead.

 

I have a strong suspicion they are providing the DPICM version because it WON'T drop the Kerch Bridge. Ukraine, being Ukraine. will probably catch another fuel train in transit on the bridge..

Edit: They might also be able to hammer the air defenses around the bridge so hard they can get three or four Storm Shadows through. 

Edited September 23, 2023 by dan/california

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Well, in many ways Prig was smarter than most of them. Yet they were all on the same plane.

Yes, they were. The question is “did they have brain waves or were their hearts stilling beating when the the plane took off?”

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-22-2023

The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is reportedly investigating high-ranking Rosgvardia officials over their potential involvement in Wagner Group’s rebellion on June 24. A Russian insider source claimed on September 22 that the FSB is investigating Rosgvardia officials after Rosgvardia reportedly allowed Wagner to “hide” shells and equipment in Rosgvardia’s warehouses immediately after the Wagner rebellion and during the period of Wagner’s disarmament.

 

Another little gem in today's ISW report. A proper conflict between the FSB and the Rosgvardia would be just about the best way to implode Putin's regime that I can think off. There is exactly ZERO regular army forces available to referee such a conflict. 

[Vanir Ausf B]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

I have a strong suspicion they are providing the DPICM version because it WON'T drop the Kerch Bridge.

While that would not shock me I'm guessing it's because there are a lot more DPICM warheads in inventory than unitary.

[cesmonkey]

1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

While that would not shock me I'm guessing it's because there are a lot more DPICM warheads in inventory than unitary.

Or they are more willing to send the oldest and least-capable variant that the US is less interested in keeping in its inventory.

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Letter from Prague]

The more I see Ukrainians blowing up the command chain all of a sudden, the more I believe we are closing to breakthrough and this is attempt to bring even more chaos to Russians.

edit: it's probably just wishful thinking.

Edited September 23, 2023 by Letter from Prague

[poesel]

9 hours ago, Fenris said:

Looking to the board's hive mind for insights re cluster ammo...

Any way to change the spread on the cluster rounds - seems they spread a bit too wide most times or do the bomblets have enough shrapnel to cover the area inside the ring?  Is the wide spread because they were designed to be fired en masse rather than quite accurate, single tube like we're seeing now?

Caveat: I don't _know_. But I guess this round has a fuze which triggers the separation process. Either time of flight or proximity. If that is adjustable, you could change the spread.

[The_Capt]

11 hours ago, Fenris said:

Looking to the board's hive mind for insights re cluster ammo...

Any way to change the spread on the cluster rounds - seems they spread a bit too wide most times or do the bomblets have enough shrapnel to cover the area inside the ring?  Is the wide spread because they were designed to be fired en masse rather than quite accurate, single tube like we're seeing now?

From my study of it, I suspect they can by varying the fuse of the cargo shell.  Higher trigger would mean greater dispersal, lower a tighter grouping.  There is a minimum height for DPICM arming so they can only go so low.  The old style DPICM were designed for area saturation using salvos, not single shot precision. Now that we are seeing more of that, next gen cluster munitions will likely evolve to little PGM rounds (they were working on these systems already).  Back to mech/armour mass, when a single cargo shell can drop 20 PGM DPICM rounds that can hit vehicles with 80% accuracy or be programmed for specific patterns/targets…well one can see how it is going to get more challenging.

[Jr Buck Private]

When you see those cluster munitions go off in a big circle like that it seems to me that it's dispersal is too big, but then I figure I'd be full of holes if were standing in the middle of that circle.   Hard to tell though.   Probably need to ask some Russians.     

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 hour ago, Jr Buck Private said:

When you see those cluster munitions go off in a big circle like that it seems to me that it's dispersal is too big, but then I figure I'd be full of holes if were standing in the middle of that circle.   Hard to tell though.   Probably need to ask some Russians.     

Also remember these are not designed to be shot in single shells sniping but as a barrages.

Edited September 23, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[The_Capt]

41 minutes ago, Jr Buck Private said:

When you see those cluster munitions go off in a big circle like that it seems to me that it's dispersal is too big, but then I figure I'd be full of holes if were standing in the middle of that circle.   Hard to tell though.   Probably need to ask some Russians.     

Each one of those munitions is roughly equivalent to a 40mm grenade going off.  So about a 10m diameter lethal radius and then chances to injury going out from there.  A standard 155mm cargo shell can hold 88 of them (https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/m483.htm).

So take a picture of the circle and start drawing 10m circles, then say 40m circles and you can get a pretty good idea of the effect.  It should get heads down at least.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

From my study of it, I suspect they can by varying the fuse of the cargo shell.  Higher trigger would mean greater dispersal, lower a tighter grouping.  There is a minimum height for DPICM arming so they can only go so low.  The old style DPICM were designed for area saturation using salvos, not single shot precision. Now that we are seeing more of that, next gen cluster munitions will likely evolve to little PGM rounds (they were working on these systems already).  Back to mech/armour mass, when a single cargo shell can drop 20 PGM DPICM rounds that can hit vehicles with 80% accuracy or be programmed for specific patterns/targets…well one can see how it is going to get more challenging.

An even easier innovation would be to have a way to change the dispersal pattern from the carrying shell.  Not my area of knowledge, but I suspect there's some weapons engineers that already have a fairly good idea how to approach this.

OK, so it seems the consensus on the pattern is a combination of Ukrainian targeting (altitude) and "that's just the way it was designed".  Seems logical.

As a reminder we did see a report when Ukraine first started using DPICM that they made some mistakes about setting the altitude.  I don't remember if it was an informed source (i.e. on the ground in some manner) or someone commenting from afar, so it could very well have been wrong/mistaken.

Steve

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

An even easier innovation would be to have a way to change the dispersal pattern from the carrying shell.  Not my area of knowledge, but I suspect there's some weapons engineers that already have a fairly good idea how to approach this.

OK, so it seems the consensus on the pattern is a combination of Ukrainian targeting (altitude) and "that's just the way it was designed".  Seems logical.

As a reminder we did see a report when Ukraine first started using DPICM that they made some mistakes about setting the altitude.  I don't remember if it was an informed source (i.e. on the ground in some manner) or someone commenting from afar, so it could very well have been wrong/mistaken.

Steve

Not a bad idea either.  Right now there is no guidance on these rounds.  They only have drag ribbons to try to ensure they hit the ground fuze side down to detonate - I mean this is 60-70s technology really.  Putting guidance on the little bastards is not really a high water mark of technology so I expect it is already on the books or out there.  Mass production of that as we enter into a Precision Race is going to likely kick into high gear.

And because it is a slow Saturday (except for what is looking like a pretty effective UA counter-C2 node campaign), now tanks are going to need umbrellas, and anti-ATGM APS, and EW, and ground fences, and C-UAS, and fairy invisibility dust...well you get the point. 

[akd]

The circular dispersion is an effect of how the submunitions are ejected from the carrier shell (via rotational forces).  The size of the pattern has the effective area of the submunitions overlapping.  Lower and each submunition would be wasting area of effect in overlap with others, higher and there would be gaps without effect in the ring.

[Battlefront.com]

Ooooooo!  Another round of tank bashing!  Cool

The people that think large armored vehicles still have a place on the battlefield of tomorrow argue like someone playing a whack-a-mole game (is this a term familiar to non-Americans?).  Every time someone points to an existing or emerging threat that currently isn't solved for, the proponent either says there is a counter (APS, ERA, EW, etc) or just stated generically that "there is nothing to replace it with, so it will remain".  I firmly believe unmanned vehicles (both ground and aerial) have destroyed the latter defense, but the endless ability to counter measure debate continues.

The primary defect in the counter measure argument is that the array of threats to large armored vehicles continues to grow and increasingly diverge from each other.  Every time the engineers solve for one problem it seems two more come up.  And the engineered solutions become increasingly expensive and impractical to field.

From my perspective, shared by many here, we have already long passed the point where large armored vehicles (as currently conceived of) have any place on the battlefield of tomorrow.  They are already too expensive to make, too expensive to keep, and too expensive to deploy.  They are already too slow to manufacture, to slow to slow to maintain, and too slow to deploy.  They are already too vulnerable from expensive threads, medium threats, and increasingly cheap threats.

I sure do wish I was in charge of making procurement decisions for the US military.  It is not difficult to envision decisions that would result in a military force vastly more practical, nimble, and deadly while also costing trillions less over a relatively short period of time.

But here I am, stuck in my lowly position as a keyboard warrior

Steve

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ooooooo!  Another round of tank bashing!  Cool

Well they did Euro-bashing day yesterday...time to keep moving in the rotation.