How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

Probably this thread from Tatarigami was posted before, but good stuff is worth to repeat anyway.

Probably not the first time line was penetrated and hard to tell what effects will be, but it is of some note.

 

[Teufel]

At night, a large-scale fire strike was carried out at the Saki military airfield in the temporarily occupied Crimea  According to Censor NET sources in the Security Service, there were at least 12 combat aircraft (Su-24 and Su-30) at the airport, as well as the Pantsir air defense system.

The Mojaher UAV operator training base was also located there. It is these drones that the Russians use to coordinate their own air strikes, as well as as a combat strike drone.

Strikes by the Security Service and the Naval Forces hit the target and caused serious damage to the occupiers' equipment. Drones were used to defeat the enemy, which overloaded Russian air defense, and then they launched Neptune missiles.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1704752289821397147?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1704752289821397147|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=

[FancyCat]

Meh, if one reviews the amount of infighting the allies had in WWII, end of the day these are normal, and it's in Russia's interest to emphasize the infighting.

I've seen headlines saying stuff from "no more aid to Ukraine" to "no more reserves left of Soviet hardware for Ukraine" to etc, etc.

Main considerations at hand, financial, and associated production, and those remain flowing and active from ex-Soviet states.

More concerning is the U.S and even then I'm not too concerned, even tho I remain extremely annoyed by ATACMS, if we consider that strategy of escalation control I guess the U.S is waiting for Russia to do something, perhaps the energy infrastructure attacks which Ukraine just warned might be beginning with a set of strikes recently, the U.S is waiting to release upon Russia initiating this winter.

Quote

@POTUS has determined that he would not provide ATACMs to Ukraine, but he has also not taken it off the table in the future — Jake Sullivan

 

[Lethaface]

On 9/20/2023 at 8:00 PM, The_Capt said:

You and Pinker are kinda making my point.  Right so we firmly establish that this current war is indeed not A World War because it falls under a certain (arbitrary) scale on a single metric of loss of life.  So what?  Do we feel better?  Do we have a better frame or lens through which to look at this war?  How does that offer one wit of anything valuable to the analysis?  

And by fixating we are missing the larger picture: sure this isn't a World War (and no one has jumped in with legal of diplomatic definitions) - but it is a Global one.  It is having global effects on security and collective defence, food security, human security, nuclear warfare deterence and the role of the UN and global order to name a few.  This war will very likely change the cultures of Ukraine and Russia in ways we cannot even see yet.  It is shifting power dynamics in a region which again has global repurcutions.  Within the information space this war has gone global with open source and information warfare happening everywhere (even here).  In reality, I am not entirely sure if a war can be truly "small" anymore; however, this one definitely is not.  So beyond drawing arbitrary lines on narrow metrics todays fixation, like a lot of them in this vein, completely misses the point.

The larger picture you mention here (Global) is a 'critical' understanding imo. If documentaries about key turning points in history will still be produced in a hundred years I guess there will be a couple of interesting episodes about what happened /changed during and after the invasion of Ukraine in feb 2022.

 

[FancyCat]

Also we have a solution for the agricultural export issue...open the Black Sea ports. More underwater ISVs to Ukraine, more AA and cruise missile defense, Western support for shipping stakeholders, why are we emphasizing ATACMS, more screaming at Germany for Taurus missiles, will at least pressure Scholz and co to start pressuring the U.S in response.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, MSBoxer said:

After reading the article I note that the headline could be re-written as
"Approximately 10% of republicans in House and Senate write letter opposing further aid to Ukraine"

Yup, and the same 10% that have McCarthy by the short and curlies and are probably going to shut down the US Gov't.

McCarthy is in a tough position, but he isn't a tough guy.  A tough guy could make a deal with Dems to defeat a challenge to his position in exchange for not giving into the 10% nutjobs.

But alas... it has been a while since the US had any sort of decent politician in a Congressional leadership position.  I mean... like, as in most of my lifetime.

Steve

[billbindc]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, and the same 10% that have McCarthy by the short and curlies and are probably going to shut down the US Gov't.

McCarthy is in a tough position, but he isn't a tough guy.  A tough guy could make a deal with Dems to defeat a challenge to his position in exchange for not giving into the 10% nutjobs.

But alas... it has been a while since the US had any sort of decent politician in a Congressional leadership position.  I mean... like, as in most of my lifetime.

Steve

Pelosi and McConnell ran/run a very tight ship. Not likeable people, to be sure, but they delivered tough votes routinely. McCarthy is simply not of that caliber and it's likely that aid to Ukraine suffers for it.

[Centurian52]

5 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Could be worse:

Republicans in letter to White House vow to oppose further Ukraine aid
https://thehill.com/homenews/4215940-republicans-in-letter-to-white-house-vow-to-oppose-further-ukraine-aid/
 

 

Wow. This is by far the most incomprehensibly stupid thing I have heard in this war (edit: from anyone outside of Russia) so far (and I do not throw around words like "stupid" lightly. They are really going to need to explain how the concept of an "exit plan" applies to this war. The US doesn't need an exit plan, because US forces aren't in Ukraine. Ukraine doesn't need an exit plan, because why would Ukraine want to leave Ukraine? Russia is the only party to which an exit plan might apply. But their objective is to conquer Ukraine and make it a permanent part of Russia. An exit plan would be an admission of defeat.

The United States needed exit plans for Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, because we were foreign forces in those countries that had no intention of permanently conquering those countries (in other words, our forces would eventually need to "exit" those countries).

I haven't been watching the regular news or paying much attention to how the average American views this war. But I wonder if this is part of a larger trend of assuming that every single war is like Iraq or Afghanistan. This is not the first time I've heard objections raised about this war that were applicable to Iraq or Afghanistan, but not in any way applicable to Ukraine. Some conversations I've had with some of my coworkers have left me with the suspicion that Iraq and Afghanistan are the only frames of reference they have for any war.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Centurian52

[Haiduk]

Aftermath of yesterday strike on Russian base in Melitopol. It's claimed Russian HQ was hit and allegedly commander and chief of the staff of 58th CAA were wounded along with other officers. 

[Haiduk]

Locals in Sevastopol posted a photo of big explosion in Kazachya Bay. Though Russian milblogger claims this was launch of Onix missile. 

In Crimean chats also multiple reports about loud explosion sounds on Fiolent cape, but it also could be Onix launches. Several missiles reportedly hit recreation object in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district of Odesa oblast. 

[Letter from Prague]

8 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Damn muscovites. Haiduk how you judge chances that this autumn/winter we will see similar Russian strike campaign as previous year  targeting power grids?

Ukrainians now have domestic drones that can hit Russian power grid - which will not have Patriot protecting it and bunch of donated generators from EU propping it up. If they were smart, they would not dare touch Ukrainian power grid.

Of course if the Russians were smart, we would not be reading this very thread.

[Haiduk]

Ukraine conducted a strike on cell comm node in Olenivka of Volnovakha district, Donetsk oblast. As result all equipment were destroyed. As result part of south-eastern area of so-called DNR now without cellphone communication

And by strange coincidence, MTS cellphone operator network was downed in southern regions of Russia - Rostov-on-Don and Kuban'. Reportedly optofiber cable was damaged. 

[Haiduk]

During operation in Nagornyi Karabakh Azerbaijanian army hit a jeep with Russian "peacemakers" chiefs. As result were killed captain, two lt.colonels and deputy commander of "peacemaking contingent" 1st rank captain (=colonel) Ivan Kovgan. Interesting, that Kovgan was appointed to N.Karabakh from the duty... deputy commander of submarine forces of Northern Fleet. 

On the photo jeep, where 5 Russian servicemen were shot out with small arms. 

 

Among other incidents - Azerbaijanian forces have struck N.Karabakh radar post, where Russian soldiers were deployed there, also was shelled Russian observation post and shot out KAMAZ - driver was killed, other solsier was wounded. 

President of Azerbaijan Geidar Aliyev apologized to president Putin. This caused wave of angriness among Russian milbloggers: "if the country is not ready to start a war with anybody and anywere, who killed our soldiers, than we have fu..g nothing to do at all "

Edited September 21, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Video of 47th mech.brigade. Russian counter-attack on SW outskirt of Robotyne. Russian tank cought all mines on own way, next two light armor disembarked infantry, which ran to the trench, but suddenly Russian TOS-1A hit the same place

 

[Haiduk]

Russian TG claims UKR forces advanced 1 km to south between Novoprokopivka and Verbove and cut off rocade dirt road between these villages. Of course, author added, enemy attack potential had been  weakened by artillery and his losses - 5 vehicles and about company. 

Edited September 21, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Explosion in Russian city Tula (330 km from nearest Ukrainian territory point). One district without electricity.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Rare video how Russian Shturm-S tank destroyer got hit with ATGM

 

[Offshoot]

Russia temporarily bans export of petrol and diesel to stabilise domestic market - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/21/russia-temporarily-bans-export-of-petrol-and-diesel-to-stabilise-domestic-market

[Elmar Bijlsma]

4 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

Interesting. I have heard of this phenomenon many times before, but I've never heard a proverb for it before. Unfortunately proverbs don't tend to translate well from one language to the next ("Fear has big eyes" almost works in English, but it might need some workshopping).

One of my favourite lines in Firefly is after Jayne gets attacked from behind by a victim of the Reivers. Once the assailant is caught and turns out to be smaller than reported, Jayne defensively retorts: "He looked bigger when I couldn't see him"

[Centurian52]

4 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

One of my favourite lines in Firefly is after Jayne gets attacked from behind by a victim of the Reivers. Once the assailant is caught and turns out to be smaller than reported, Jayne defensively retorts: "He looked bigger when I couldn't see him"

Yeah that's a pretty good line. Of course Firefly is full of good lines.

[dan/california]

 

19 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Russia temporarily bans export of petrol and diesel to stabilise domestic market - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/21/russia-temporarily-bans-export-of-petrol-and-diesel-to-stabilise-domestic-market

This would be Ukraine's clue to target Russian oil refineries with every drone it has. Cause a real fuel shortage, followed by a real financial hole when Russia has to import refined POL, and Putin's negotiating position will display sudden flexibility.

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

Pelosi and McConnell ran/run a very tight ship. Not likeable people, to be sure, but they delivered tough votes routinely. McCarthy is simply not of that caliber and it's likely that aid to Ukraine suffers for it.

They ran very tight parties, true, but it only worked because a) neither had totally insane members, and b) they had enough margin of error for those who didn't sign off on something.  If McConnell was top dog in the Senate I doubt he'd get anything done either.  There's too many nutters in the Senate GoP now.

The type of leader I'm talking about is one that can get stuff done with more than 1 person on the other side counting as "bipartisan".

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Interesting, that Kovgan was appointed to N.Karabakh from the duty... deputy commander of submarine forces of Northern Fleet. 

IIRC Russia moved most of its peace keepers out of the region fairly early last year during its panic redeployment of just about any military unit that was even remotely combat ready.  I am not surprised that officers, which Russia is acutely short of, are coming from postings that so far haven't been needed directly from the war.  I still remember early in the war when a Russian LT meteorologist from an arctic weather station was found dead in a burnt out APC somewhere in the south of Ukraine.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

In some good US news for Ukraine... Biden says first Abrams will show up in Ukraine next week:

'https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4217317-biden-first-us-abrams-tanks-to-arrive-in-ukraine-next-week/

Now if he only meant ATACMS I'd really be happy

Steve

[JonS]

On 9/20/2023 at 10:27 PM, Battlefront.com said:

I think the key objection is is if that metric is useful.  I don't think it is.  Let's look at some wars that have gone on recently:

• Syria
• Yemen
• Sudan
• Ukraine

Quite right. When you cherry pick a subset of a subset, you can get a quick-and-dirty rule of thumb to fail. I'm not sure anyone has quite realised this devastating insight previously.

Well done you.

I have a slightly different objection to the model; it doesn't appear to take into account global population growth. 1-10,000 casualties in the early 21st century is a tragedy, especially for those casualties and their families, but eh, it's going to drop off the front page pretty quickly. 10,000 casualties 100 years ago, 200 years ago, 500 years ago, 2000 years ago - that's pretty big news. We still hear about the Teutoberger Wald, and that was 20k, tops, although granted it was a battle rather than a war. Anyhoo, the point being that when global populations were smaller, smaller casualty counts had a higher proportional impact (exception: China? Over the last several millennia they seemed to routinely kill 100k - 1M in various conflicts and ... no one really cares?).

Nevertheless, I still get the point, and I think it's a useful one: if all you know about a war is the name of it and the casualty count, how do you assess it's impact. The order of magnitude scaling gives you a pretty good place to start. But, like using wikipedia for research, it's only a start. For some purposes that could be enough. But if you really want to assess the specific impact of the Anglo-Zanzibar War (1896), or the Pig War (1859), or the Football War (1969), or the Chaco War (1930s) you're probably going to need to - surprise! - look beyond just the casualty count.

Edited September 21, 2023 by JonS