How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Immature?!  Meow.  How about a highly satirical theory that 1) attempts to lighten the mood of a pretty brutal war, and 2) highlights the total absurdity of what actually happened, or appeared to happen during the whole Putin-Prig drama.  The events were so bizarre that we are reduced to Taylor Swift in trying to explain the levels of dysfunction within the Russian power hierarchy.

It is ludicrous but also probably the best theory I can come up with for that whole insane chapter.

The_Capt, if you want to talk we want to listen. As I have said before we REALLY appreciate getting to audit staff college without  the push-ups, or the paper work.

Edited September 11, 2023 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

Ok, as a long-time member of this board I have an amazingly small post count, of course I was a victim of the great general forum flush many years ago, but my count is still paltry compared to others of my longevity.

Ah, the Great Flush of '01.  Legendary catastrophe, that was.

Don't worry, your chosen avatar more than makes up for your low post count.  Every time I see it I think "aaaaaaawe!"

Steve

[kimbosbread]

Re T55s, I can’t imagine they are good unless you figure it’s easier to train crews, easier to maintain and easier to find ammo for the same probability of getting killed as a more modern tank.

How much training are the new Russian tankers getting anyway? I assume the Russian military sees them as completely expendable.

[MSBoxer]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

Ah, the Great Flush of '01.  Legendary catastrophe, that was.

Don't worry, your chosen avatar more than makes up for your low post count.  Every time I see it I think "aaaaaaawe!"

Steve

Catastrophe, I thought it was more of a cleansing of biblical proportions, only there was no ark.  We were a messy bunch

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Battle area Verbove , Ukrainians in the captured Russian fortifications. You can also see a destroyed Ukrainian Spartan armored personnel carrier of British production.

Wow, you can really tell that the Spartan's armor is aluminum based.  Looks like a beer can thrown into a bonfire.

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

It is actually visible in Kremlin's language, which seems to be genuinly believing nowadays that they are at the forefront of positive changes in the world. Old Soviet narrations about Africa, India, China and South America are now being proudly brandished like rusty armours taken from grandfather's cellar. It is process that seems qualitively different from previous dirty Russian geopolitical business in Africa and Middle East, at least on ideological level.

It is yet to be seen how well this plays out for them.  Before they attacked Ukraine in 2014, and even slightly after, I thought they were making some pretty good inroads in traditional Soviet spheres.  But since then?  I get the sense that the Russian Federation has been a ship without a clear course or person to steer it.  This disastrous war is the equivalent of the ship running itself on the rocks.  Aside from naked deals for personal self enrichment, I don't see Russia having the sort of sway that it once had, not to mention Soviet times.  The situation with Armenia and Azerbaijan is a clear symptom of that.

Steve

[Tux]

3 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Re T55s, I can’t imagine they are good unless you figure it’s easier to train crews, easier to maintain and easier to find ammo for the same probability of getting killed as a more modern tank.

How much training are the new Russian tankers getting anyway? I assume the Russian military sees them as completely expendable.

Surely even if they're a bit harder to train for, maintain and supply you might still want to use them up first in an attritional war?  As I said a few days ago, think of it the other way 'round:  If you're going to be left with any tanks after this war, which ones would you rather be left with?

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

"Four oilrigs have been recaptured by Ukraine special forces."

Petro Hodovalets, Ukraine, Tavrida en Syvasj are the names, pretty close to Crimea.

Wasn't mentioned here yet, I think.

Other than the picture Kraft just posted, not mentioned yet.  Here's a brief article about it:

https://news.yahoo.com/hur-shares-footage-daring-special-132200358.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB99Apg0nyvpNoETUXgNLNjX6fTk00xQRv2hWi37ZRql3zfRTOq4f-w4m3AR7OU8Eo9eWEBittT0IsKkoRpDGogkW0gcxCcuVAJHV1SdOJuHmnf7UbEdQoCN1JBlUSwZH_OsX-2VIrOlWnn8jCUoV1Oon9v0b_X_2LFyI-SjPsGO

It seems we did see some recon/probing going on a few weeks ago as I recall some SF op that involved boats near a rig.  I could be misremembering it.

Steve

[Kinophile]

45 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Immature?!  Meow.  How about a highly satirical theory that 1) attempts to lighten the mood of a pretty brutal war, and 2) highlights the total absurdity of what actually happened, or appeared to happen during the whole Putin-Prig drama.  The events were so bizarre that we are reduced to Taylor Swift in trying to explain the levels of dysfunction within the Russian power hierarchy.

It is ludicrous but also probably the best theory I can come up with for that whole insane chapter.

I appreciate the humour but I also need to keep my breakfast down... 

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Re T55s, I can’t imagine they are good unless you figure it’s easier to train crews, easier to maintain and easier to find ammo for the same probability of getting killed as a more modern tank.

How much training are the new Russian tankers getting anyway? I assume the Russian military sees them as completely expendable.

Since tanks are mostly being used to blow up fighting positions, and Ukraine can destroy anything the Russians can field, there is a logical argument to make that fielding T55s (and other old tanks) isn't as dumb as it appears. 

That said...

33 minutes ago, Tux said:

I'm not saying it doesn't expose various kinds of 'flaws' in the Russian way of working and I'm not saying they haven't lost embarassing numbers of modern vehicles but I really don't think the reappearance of T-55s in Russian frontline service is necessarily a sign of desperation, at all.

I don't doubt for a second that it is also a sign of how bad things are on the Russian side that they've even had to try this out.  It's unlikely they decided to go this route completely voluntarily is what I'm saying.  Just making lemonade out of lemons.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Monty's Mighty Moustache said:

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-tried-to-shoot-down-ukrainian-flag-revealed-firing-position-2023-9

Made me chuckle

MMM

This is gold:

"To be honest, it was probably the most successful flag launch ever,"

I've seen videos of several of these large flag launches, including this one, and I've always wondered what happens after they float over Russian occupied territory.  The article you linked to has some hints.  My curiosity is now satisfied!

Steve

[dan/california]

43 minutes ago, Tux said:

 

Does no-one else think that this is one of the more sensible and right-headed decisions the Russians have made, during this war?  If the Russian expectation (practically their intention, as far as I can see) is that they will lose a large number of tanks, then surely your 50 year old tank stock is exactly the stock you should run down first?  What else is it for?

I'm not saying it doesn't expose various kinds of 'flaws' in the Russian way of working and I'm not saying they haven't lost embarassing numbers of modern vehicles but I really don't think the reappearance of T-55s in Russian frontline service is necessarily a sign of desperation, at all.

I will believe it makes a little sense when I a pile of ammo for that very obsolete main gun that doesn't look at least as hazardous to the people firing it as the people it is aimed at. Maybe the T55 thing is being driven by the fact that the North Koreans have kept making that caliber and are willing to let a bunch of it get on a train heading east.

 

Quote

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D-10_tank_gun

Keep in mind the T55 uses a rifled gun, not the 100mm smoothbore the Russians also produced in large quantities. The Wikipedia article above has wealth of information about the gun and it ammunition. Sadly it does not have the one bit I really wanted, which is who stopped making it, and when. Or is someone, somewhere STILL making it. It is my strong assumption that any Russian capacity to do so vaporized in the nineties and would have to be rebuilt from scratch. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_59_tank

The Chinese and North Koreans kept the The t55, and its Chinese knockoff version in frontline service far longer than the Soviets did, They probably do have a pile of ammo that is merely out of date as opposed to outright hazardous, and my suspicion that this is all driven by ammo availability grows stronger with everything the internet will tell me.

Edit: Anybody got an old copy of some Jane's book from 2005, or similar that might have that info?

Edited September 11, 2023 by dan/california

[danfrodo]

22 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Re T55s, I can’t imagine they are good unless you figure it’s easier to train crews, easier to maintain and easier to find ammo for the same probability of getting killed as a more modern tank.

How much training are the new Russian tankers getting anyway? I assume the Russian military sees them as completely expendable.

Like Steve just said, anything w a cannon and some armor is a dangerous.  But it does clearly show desperation.  Why would one field such things unless didn't have something better?  Like something not 70 yrs old? 

I suspect these will be used as pillboxes and/or artillery.  Someone probably pulled out thousands of old 100mm shells out of warehouses.  I wouldn't want to be firing these shells, that's for sure.   (edit: ninja'd by DanCA on this)

On the front, I still have my main concern for the current situation: RU still able to rob sections of front to shore up others.  UKR going slow & steady but does allow enemy time to respond.  And there will be a new pile of mobiks this fall to at least put bodies in holes to slow UKR down.  It seems like RU is starting to crack but it's rather ductile crack.

Steve banned our resident genius.  Wherefore wilst I go for wisdom heretofore?

Edited September 11, 2023 by danfrodo

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Don’t sully a wonderful thing.

No we are not there yet but ISW dropped its daily:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-10-2023

Interesting comment here:

”Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov stated on September 10 that Ukrainian forces will continue counteroffensive operations into late 2023.[4] Cold and wet weather will affect but not halt active combat, as it has done in the first 18 months of the war. Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley stated on September 10 that Ukrainian forces probably have 30 to 45 days of “fighting weather” left.[5] Seasonal heavy rains and heavy mud in late autumn will slow ground movements for both sides, and low temperatures impose a variety of logistics challenges. The start of such seasonal weather is variable, however.[6] While weather considerations will affect Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, they will not impose a definite end to them. A hard freeze occurs throughout Ukraine in the winter that makes the ground more conducive to mechanized maneuver warfare, and Ukrainian officials expressed routine interest in exploiting these weather conditions in winter 2022–2023.[7]”

I was wondering at this last winter - what are the UA winter warfare capabilities?  A winter breakout offensive once the ground freezes would be awesome.  The RA likely struggles the most in the cold due to logistical strain so the opportunity could be there but there are definitely challenges.  We assumed the offensive would pause with the weather but maybe the UA has other plans?

We started having a discussion about this a few days ago, but it didn't get the full attention of the thread for some reason!  I think it's worthy of discussing a bit more.

The mud will make things difficult for everything, including dismounted operations.  We've all seen the images of soldiers struggling to move around, not to mention stay in position.  However, those conditions appear to be generally short in comparison to how long it takes for vehicles to get back into action.

I suspect Ukraine's infantry will hardly take a break.  Attacks might be called off here and there due to rain precluding drones, but I think we're talking hours or days for any specific action.

Keeping Ukraine's forces, especially artillery, fully supplied is going to be the big challenge.  But as stated above, there is reason to suspect it will be far worse for the Russians.  On a good day they seem to have troubles Ukraine doesn't have.  That said, this has always been true and yet Russian forces seemed to find ways to cope with mud season and the cold.  And by "cope" I mean suffering large numbers of totally preventable weather related casualties and still not collapse.

Steve

[Centurian52]

On 9/8/2023 at 8:05 AM, kimbosbread said:

He is extremely smart

I used to think so. But I am more and more convinced that Musk isn't actually all that smart. Just rich enough to hire smart people. The man renamed Twitter (one of the more recognizable names in the world) to X (a single letter which is impossible to trademark and which is literally used as a placeholder).

[Jr Buck Private]

I'm going to assume this offensive falls short for this season.   What I worry about is can Russia then rebuild another defensive line that is as strong as the one they built last winter?   They must've laid hundreds of thousands of mines, and used all kinds of materials and men to build trenches, dragons teeth, etc.   Their supplies can't be unlimited.  Now if they only have to build new lines around the "dents" in their original lines then it's far more feasible.   

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is yet to be seen how well this plays out for them.  Before they attacked Ukraine in 2014, and even slightly after, I thought they were making some pretty good inroads in traditional Soviet spheres.  But since then?  I get the sense that the Russian Federation has been a ship without a clear course or person to steer it.  This disastrous war is the equivalent of the ship running itself on the rocks.  Aside from naked deals for personal self enrichment, I don't see Russia having the sort of sway that it once had, not to mention Soviet times.  The situation with Armenia and Azerbaijan is a clear symptom of that.

Steve

Sure, but point here is immense Russian ability to genuinly self-cheat itself into this state of being geopolitical champion, and impact of this fact on Putin's decisions. These things are difficult to measure, but warcry: "Follow me, disinherited folks!", like Saruman The White did with Dunledings, seem to be now more than just cynical game- at least some Russians take it deadly seriously, which start to be visible in their answers in street interwievs. This "anti-colonial" (= anti-Western) narration takes so important place at Kremlin diplomatic efforts (and Kremlin propaganda) that I am inclined to believe it now constitutes very real agenda of Tsar himself. He jumped into this breach not looking who is coming after him even for a moment, and large part of apparatus followed him too, quite eagerly.

After all, even highly cynical Russians need some form of unifying idea, however preposterous it may be.

It's tea leafs now, but compared to 2014, Muscovia will now probably loose long-term influence in some traditional regions (South Caucasus, almost certainly Central Asia will be given up to Chinese), will be roughly on pair in South America/Southern Asia/Middle East, and possibly on plus in Africa/Parts of ME. Asia is a mystery for now as various BRICS championed by India (oh sorry, Bharat) are visibly trying to play their own games, and this time suck on Russia instead of being sucked by her. So Putin may have some bloody nose here in the end too. Ofc. in the end a lot depends how much moves China will do- for now, it contends itself with largely watching.

Edited September 11, 2023 by Beleg85

[Chibot Mk IX]

1 hour ago, Tux said:

 

Does no-one else think that this is one of the more sensible and right-headed decisions the Russians have made, during this war?  If the Russian expectation (practically their intention, as far as I can see) is that they will lose a large number of tanks, then surely your 50 year old tank stock is exactly the stock you should run down first?  What else is it for?

I'm not saying it doesn't expose various kinds of 'flaws' in the Russian way of working and I'm not saying they haven't lost embarassing numbers of modern vehicles but I really don't think the reappearance of T-55s in Russian frontline service is necessarily a sign of desperation, at all.

I don't think it is Russian intentionally get old tanks blew up first. It's just these T-55 happen to be in a good storage condition. They might have less than dozen engine hours on the training ground before been put into a warehouse.

Soviets built a lot of T-55 until 1981 to use them build up the strength of category C and D divisions in Far East. It's quite ironically these T-55 have low engine hours; good storage condition compares to the worn-out T-80/72s retired from category A divisions (and many of these T-80/72 were put in outside storage).

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

we are reduced to Taylor Swift in trying to explain the levels of dysfunction within the Russian power hierarchy.

There is nothing Taylor can't explain about like, anything.

https://defector.com/you-must-understand-that-taylor-swift-knows-me-better-than-anyone-else-on-earth

[The_Capt]

49 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

There is nothing Taylor can't explain about like, anything.

https://defector.com/you-must-understand-that-taylor-swift-knows-me-better-than-anyone-else-on-earth

"Boys only want love if it's torture!" (last one for today, promise)

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Wow, you can really tell that the Spartan's armor is aluminum based.  Looks like a beer can thrown into a bonfire.

It is yet to be seen how well this plays out for them.  Before they attacked Ukraine in 2014, and even slightly after, I thought they were making some pretty good inroads in traditional Soviet spheres.  But since then?  I get the sense that the Russian Federation has been a ship without a clear course or person to steer it.  This disastrous war is the equivalent of the ship running itself on the rocks.  Aside from naked deals for personal self enrichment, I don't see Russia having the sort of sway that it once had, not to mention Soviet times.  The situation with Armenia and Azerbaijan is a clear symptom of that.

Steve

A lot of Russia's "influence" right now is due to giving away stolen Ukrainian grain, and selling their own oil and grain at cut rate prices, at least relative to the world market price. They are probably almost out of pre war Ukrainian grain, and there surely isn't going to be much more produced in the parts of Ukraine that Russia occupies given the extent to which they are active war zones. There were some interesting  posts a few pages ago about issues with the diesel supply severely affecting this years Russian harvest, so quite possibly Putin will soon be down to cheap oil, and perhaps less of that, to buy friends with. It isn't like Putin has any military hardware available to shower on miscellaneous third world dictators. We will see how many friends Russia has when they have less to buy them with.

Edited September 11, 2023 by dan/california

[Twisk]

1 hour ago, Jr Buck Private said:

I'm going to assume this offensive falls short for this season.   What I worry about is can Russia then rebuild another defensive line that is as strong as the one they built last winter?   They must've laid hundreds of thousands of mines, and used all kinds of materials and men to build trenches, dragons teeth, etc.   Their supplies can't be unlimited.  Now if they only have to build new lines around the "dents" in their original lines then it's far more feasible.   

Steve and The_Capt both highlighted a bit from ISW about Ukrainian intentions to continue their offensive over the winter. I think the reason for this is that they are very aware that any pause will lead to having to break open the line again. So keeping up offensive momentum even in poor weather is better than pausing.

The penny packet style attacks supported by artillery (and the DPCIM windfall) might also be setting Ukraine up for a situation where they will have sufficient combat power to keep this up for more months.

[danfrodo]

27 minutes ago, Twisk said:

The penny packet style attacks supported by artillery (and the DPCIM windfall) might also be setting Ukraine up for a situation where they will have sufficient combat power to keep this up for more months.

good point.  This might be a big factor in their long term strategy.  NATO wants breakthrough and exploit, potentially at high cost, but UKR realized this wouldn't work for them and chose a different path.  The old fashioned 'we can outlast you' strategy, which does seem to be working, though sure is hard to endure (for UKR, that is).

[dan/california]

 

[Bulletpoint]

2 hours ago, Jr Buck Private said:

I'm going to assume this offensive falls short for this season.   What I worry about is can Russia then rebuild another defensive line that is as strong as the one they built last winter?   They must've laid hundreds of thousands of mines, and used all kinds of materials and men to build trenches, dragons teeth, etc.   Their supplies can't be unlimited.  Now if they only have to build new lines around the "dents" in their original lines then it's far more feasible.   

They are not waiting till winter, but have been continually digging new defensive lines and that work is still ongoing. The real question is if they can keep manning the new trenches.

Opinions on this seem to be mixed.

[Bulletpoint]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

 

Hopefully he also dodged the next one after the clip ended.